中国国有经济规模与经济增长条件收敛——基于1978—2008年省际面板数据的实证研究

文章揭示了中国国有经济规模对区域经济增长条件收敛的影响。在研究过程中,文章扩展了Mankiw、Romer和Weil(1992)等修正的附加人力资本的新古典增长模型,将国有经济规模等制度性变量纳入其中,使用中国省级面板数据,运用动态面板数据一阶差分GMM估计方法。实证结果显示,在控制了其他影响因素之后,如果用"国有经济单位职工人数占各地区职工总人数的比重"和"国有经济单位固定资产投资占全社会固定资产投资的比重"这两个变量来衡量国有经济规模,那么国有经济规模在全国和东部地区都是经济增长条件收敛的一个影响因素,并对经济增长产生负面影响;在中部,国有经济规模不是经济增长条件收敛的影响因素;在西部,国有经济规模可能是经济增长的一个促进因素,并且影响区域经济增长条件收敛。     

R&D in a post centrally-planned economy: The macroeconomic effects in Poland

Half a century of centrally planned policy in the Central and Eastern European countries resulted in outdated technologies, inefficient allocation of resources and low productivity. Following the end of communism there was a fifteen year process of transition which ended in 2004 with eight post-communist countries joining the European Union (EU) of which Poland was the largest. As part of the EU these countries now face the challenge of the common EU strategy Europe 2020, which has set the target of achieving R&D expenditure to GDP ratio (called the R&D intensity) of 3% by 2020 for the Union as a whole in an effort to increase the competitiveness of the region. Poland, like the other post-communist countries, faces a lower target of R&D intensity, set at 1.7%. Nevertheless, the challenge is immense, since the country is still at only half that level and has little experience in developing policies to help achieve it. In this paper we tested two possible policy options to achieve the target: (1) to increase government expenditures on R&D and; (2) to provide tax relief on R&D to businesses. The method applied to assess the options is a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Poland with an explicit link between productivity and R&D stock. The results show that achieving the R&D intensity target via the use of tax relief is 2.5 times more costly to the government budget, but it has a greater impact on the economy in terms of a higher GDP growth. Tax relief proved efficient in the short run while in the long run the government expenditure policy provides better value for money.     

Does research and development expenditure impact innovation? Evidence from the European Union countries

This study empirically investigates the relationship between innovation and Research & Development expenditure in European Union countries over the period 1995–2014. The findings of the empirical analysis show that there is a co-integration relationship between innovation and R&D. The results also reveal the existence of a positive and significant effect of business, public and higher education R&D on innovation. Business R&D is the sector with the highest positive effect on innovation. The results indicate that EU should strengthen the cooperation between business, public and higher education R&D through the encouragement of partnerships between the private sector, R&D and innovation system.     

And yet they Co-move! Public capital and productivity in OECD

In this paper, we add to the debate on the public capital–productivity link by applying very recent developments in the panel time series literature that take into account cross sectional correlation in non-stationary panels. In particular, we evaluate the productive effect of public capital by estimating various production functions on a panel of 21 OECD countries over the period 1975–2002. Our results suggest that public capital has a positive long run impact on output, with elasticities that range between 0.05 and 0.15, depending on model specification. These findings are robust to the existence of spillover effects from public capital investments in other countries and to the inclusion of other productivity determinants, like human capital, the stock of patents and R&D capital. Finally, we do not find any important effect of public capital on GDP in the short run: this suggests that public infrastructure investments might not be a powerful countercyclical policy instrument.     

Convergence of ecological footprint and sustainable policy options

Human activities impact on environment and resources needs policy actions. We provide a new multivariate model which helps to assess how to shape and quantify appropriate policy responses taking into account equity and sustainability. The model analyzes the joint dynamic growth rate of three relevant components of ecological footprint: cropland factor; water resources usage; CO2 emissions, estimating their joint rate of convergence, explicitly including conditioning variables, in the period 1971–2018. This model provides a quantitative assessment of the determinants of convergence across countries, that might help policy makers to take measures to enhance the success of achieving the target. Results show that countries with lowest levels of the ecological footprint components are growing faster than those countries with the highest level of these components. In addition, a higher participation to the international trade (openness of the economy) and a higher investment share is beneficial to accelerate the countries’ dynamics toward a converging path characterized by a more sustainable ecological footprint.     

The Impact of Immigration on Skills,Innovation and Wages: Education Matters more than where People Come from

With the ensuing immigration reform in the US, the paper shows that targeted skilled immigration into the R&D sector that helps low-skilled labor is conducive for controlling inequality and raising wage. Skilled talent-led innovation could have spillover benefits for the unskilled sector while immigration into the production sector will always reduce wage, aggravating wage inequality. In essence, we infer: (i) if R&D inputs contributes only to skilled sector, wage inequality increases in general; (ii) for wage gap to decrease, R&D sector must produce inputs that goes into unskilled manufacturing sector; (iii) even with two types of specific R&D inputs entering into the skilled and unskilled sectors separately, unskilled labor is not always benefited by high skilled migrants into R&D-sector. Rather, it depends on the importance of migrants’ skill in R&D activities and intensity of inputs. Empirical verification using a VAR model in the context of the USA confirms the conjectures, and the empirical results substantiate our policy-guided hypothesis that skilled immigration facilitates innovation with favorable impact on reducing wage-gap. Inclusive immigration policy requires inter-sectoral diffusion of ideas embedded in talented immigrants targeted for innovation.     

Capital goods imports and long-run growth: Is the Chinese experience relevant to developing countries?

In this paper, we analyze the role played by capital goods imports in the long-run growth of developing countries. We focus in the case of the Chinese economy in the last few decades. We find evidence that the ratio of imported to domestic capital goods, that is, the composition of investment, as well as the capital accumulation (both physical and human), was key determinants of the long-run growth rate of per capita GDP over the analyzed period. Furthermore, our results are also consistent with the hypothesis that the link between trade openness and long-run growth operates mainly through imports. This finding supports some recent developments of Schumpeterian models of growth, and the very specific economic policy recommendations arising thereof. In short, these models state that, in the early stages of growth, government intervention to encourage an investment-based strategy, with emphasis on large investment efforts and the adoption of foreign technology, could be an appropriate strategy for development.     

The impact of informality on inclusive growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does financial inclusion matter?

Rising poverty levels in Sub-Saharan Africa requires a better understanding of inclusive growth determinants to develop effective policy responses. Using panel data from 44 Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1990–2018, we compute measures of inclusive growth based on gender and the rural–urban divide. We account for endogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and heteroscedasticity, and estimate an inclusive growth model using the instrumental variable generalized method of moments (IV-GMM) estimator. The empirical evidence indicates that the impact of informality on inclusive growth depends on the measure of informality and inclusiveness. Our results show that financial inclusion exhibits an inverted-U-shaped relationship with inclusive growth. Also, we find that the moderating role of financial inclusion in the informality–inclusive growth nexus is mixed. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications and highlight the importance of financial inclusion and informality in influencing inclusive growth in Sub-Saharan Africa.     

Activation as a Common Framework for Social Policies towards Lone Parents

This article compares recent social policy reforms in respect of lone-parent families in three different national contexts: France, the Netherlands and the UK. In all three countries there is an increasing focus on activation policies to promote employment among lone parents. The authors examine whether this common framework of activation has led to a policy convergence across these three countries.     

Good value for public money? The case of R&D policy

This paper evaluates the role of public R&D support on Italian manufacturing SMEs’ innovation activities, focusing on innovation output rather than innovation input. Combining information from EPO records and the Capitalia survey, the new data set enables a counterfactual assessment of R&D policy from 2001 to 2003 (2009 is the final year of the post-treatment period). We find that publicly supported firms have higher R&D expenditure regardless of their characteristics, confirming a strong additionality effect of public policies on innovation inputs. However, this additional spending does not increase firms’ probability of patenting or the number of patents in comparison with privately financed R&D.     

Does trust matter for R&;D cooperation? A game theoretic examination

The game theoretical approach to R&D cooperation does not investigate the role of trust in the initiation and success of R&D cooperation: it either assumes that firms are non-opportunists or that the R&D cooperation is supported by an incentive mechanism that eliminates opportunism. In contrast, the present paper focuses on these issues by introducing incomplete information and two types of firms: opportunist and non-opportunist. Defining trust as the belief of each firm that its potential collaborator will respect the contract, it identifies the trust conditions under which firms initiate R&D alliances and contribute to their success. The higher the spillovers, the higher the level of trust required to initiate R&D cooperation for non-opportunists, while the inverse holds for opportunists.JEL Classification code: C720 Non-cooperative games; L130 Market structure, firm strategy and performance; D320 Management of technology, innovation and R&D.     

Decentralization and growth: Do informal institutions and rule of law matter?

We develop a model of the interactions among decentralization, informal institutions and the rule of law. The model sheds light on the ambiguous empirical results reported in the literature regarding the growth effects of the policy of devolving fiscal responsibility to local governments. We find that the distribution of civicness within a country determines the magnitude of the effects of decentralization on its regional convergence, as well as whether decentralization fosters or dampens the country’s national growth. We perform a series of simulated “reforms” using Monte Carlo methods parameterized using OECD countries data set. We then test our findings using a panel data set of 23 OECD countries covering the period 1975–2010. We find that the short and the long run growth effect of decentralization policy depends on the size of the policy reform and can range from extremely negative to positive depending on the rule of law, the level of social capital and its regional dispersion, in line with the model predictions.     

An international trade model to capture linkages among supply-constrained economies

The development of a country's domestic and international markets depends on its own actions as much as on those of its trading partners. The study of market linkages is thus vital for policy making. Borrowing from the conceptual framework of Leontief's input-output analysis and from the national accounts equation, this paper presents a new model to calculate multilateral trade multipliers while minimizing data requirements. The novelty of the approach consists in the column-wise (supply-oriented) normalization of trade as opposed to the row-wise (demand-oriented) normalization that prevails in the literature. The explanatory power of the model has been successfully tested on data that refer to 1973–1974. Divergence from reality inevitably reflects the great fluidity that characterized trade during that period. Although most successful when applied to trade among supply-oriented economies (such as those of socialist or developing countries), at present empirical tests have been run only for a handful of OECD and OPEC countries.     

Innovation policy configuration – a comparative study of Russia and China

This paper presents a study of innovation policy configurations in two BRICS countries, Russia and China; the fastest growing and most innovative countries in recent years. Employing a three-dimensional framework which maps policy objectives, policy instruments and policy implementation, the research analyzes a database of 485 policy items issued between 1990 and 2013. Twenty-five innovation policy variables have been scrutinized vis-à-vis the three policy dimensions. The paper compares the experiences of Russia with China, across these three policy dimension areas, revealing the similarities and differences in innovation policy configurations. The research identifies how innovation management in both Russia and China has been shaped by contrasting histories, state institutions and economies. The paper offers an alternative perspective to the debate on the effective management of innovation, a debate currently dominated by the experiences of the USA, Japan and Western Europe.     

Does inflation targeting lower inflation and spur growth?

Over the last few decades several countries have turned to inflation targeting as a policy choice for instilling stability into their economies. Prior studies have shown that inflation targeting has reduced inflation in those countries without significantly impacting GDP. This study seeks to improve upon these results by identifying the impact of timing on the policy decision as well as its impact as related to specific regions of the world. The focus is on developing countries across six regions. We find significant regional variation in developing countries in our sample in terms of the direction of changes in inflation following a switch to the inflation targeting policy. Moreover, although the impact of inflation targeting on real GDP is minimal overall, there is a statistically significant increase in real GDP among developing countries in certain regions only, namely, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East.     

How do countries choose their monetary policy frameworks?

This paper investigates the determinants of countries’ choices of monetary policy framework. A brief narrative focused on groupings of countries motivates an econometric analysis which draws on previous work on the determinants of exchange rate regimes, bringing in standard factors as well as the trade networks of potential anchor currency blocs and the financial market depth that are emphasised in the narrative. The model turns out to be able to predict three quarters of countries’ choices, and there is no obvious systematic pattern in the errors. The results have important implications for how countries should choose their monetary policy frameworks.     

Trade sophistication in developing countries: Does export destination matter?

We investigate whether exports to developed economies stimulate export sophistication (represented by UNCTAD’s index of export similarity) in developing countries. Results from fixed-effects estimations suggest that exporting to developed economies enhances the sophistication of exports in the exporting country but there are diminishing returns to this effect. We also find non-linear effects from FDI and income on export sophistication with the effect of income exhibiting diminishing returns which suggests that the gains from exporting to developed economies are higher for lower-income countries; i.e., as income increases, the gains taper off. We discuss the policy implications of these results.     

Macroeconomic performance of inflation targeting in European and Asian emerging economies

The macroeconomic performance resulting from adopting an inflation targeting policy in emerging economies of Europe and Central Asia are examined. The research includes 26 countries in the period 1997–2019, with a special focus on the period 2008–2019. Our econometric analysis consists of two approaches: dynamic panel modeling and propensity score matching. The results suggest that macroeconomic performance has improved due to the inflation targeting monetary framework. We find that a policy of inflation targeting has been effective in reducing the inflation rate, inflation volatility, and GDP volatility. The results are particularly robust for the subperiod that started in 2008. Econometric results suggest that inflation targeting policy did not affect inflation persistence or GDP growth. Our results suggest that inflation targeting improves the macroeconomic performance of developing countries even when they only partially meet the standard requirements for its implementation.     

Resource allocation and project selection: Control of r & d under dynamic process of data improvement

This paper deals with the problem of optimal control of R&D. The fundamental aspects of this problem are viewed as: uncertainty about economic parameters of new technology (or new activity, e.g. a search for new oil fields) explored by a group of parallel projects attempting to make advances in this technology as well as improve economic data; allocation of investments among rival projects under a given total budget; timing of the ultimate selection of new technology (activity) according to the most successful project. The process of data improvement (PDI) is described as a (random) process of reducing the intervals of uncertainty, the rate of data improvement being controlled, in effect, by the investment policy. A stationary dynamic model with infinite horizon of planning and with the criterion of total discounted costs is developed. The model is carefully investigated from the economic point of view, and some new effects are discovered. It is demonstrated that uncertainty may be the source of additional gain; the bigger the initial uncertainty, the bigger the gain may be under optimal control. This effect is based on PDI, the economic background of which is presented as multiplication of the expected gain over time, which is typical for the classical macromodels of economics.Optimal continuous control is constructed at every time moment, and answers to two main questions are given:(1) either to prolong R & D or to make ultimate selection of one project, (2) how to allocate resources among the rival projects in the case of R&D prolongation. The last question is answered on the basis of profitability indices that relate efficiencies of PDI for particular projects to the costs of information.