Socio-economic status and fertility decline: Insights from historical transitions in Europe and North America

The timings of historical fertility transitions in different regions are well understood by demographers, but much less is known regarding their specific features and causes. In the study reported in this paper, we used longitudinal micro-level data for five local populations in Europe and North America to analyse the relationship between socio-economic status and fertility during the fertility transition. Using comparable analytical models and class schemes for each population, we examined the changing socio-economic differences in marital fertility and related these to common theories on fertility behaviour. Our results do not provide support for the hypothesis of universally high fertility among the upper classes in pre-transitional society, but do support the idea that the upper classes acted as forerunners by reducing their fertility before other groups. Farmers and unskilled workers were the latest to start limiting their fertility. Apart from these similarities, patterns of class differences in fertility varied significantly between populations.     

Completing the fertility transition in the developing world: The role of educational differences and fertility preferences

This study summarizes patterns of educational differentials in wanted and unwanted fertility at different stages of the fertility transition. The data are from Demographic and Health Surveys in 57 less developed countries. As the transition proceeds, educational differentials in wanted fertility tend to decline and differentials in unwanted fertility tend to rise. An assessment of fertility patterns in developed and less developed countries with low fertility concludes that these differentials are likely to remain substantial when less developed countries reach the end of their transitions. This conclusion implies that the educational composition of the population remains a key predictor of overall fertility in late transitional countries and that low levels of schooling can be a cause of stalling fertility.     

A cohort analysis of the timing of first birth and fertility in Ghana

This paper examines the nature of the inverse association between age at first birth and fertility across successive generations of Ghanaian women. Within the context of enhanced non-marital opportunities for contemporary women and declining fertility, we develop a rationale for and test the hypothesis that in a medium fertility environment as currently found in Ghana, the effect of age at first birth on fertility becomes more important than ever before. Five birth cohorts were identified (1938–1944; 1945–1949;1950–1954; 1955–1959; 1960–1964)from a merged file of the 1988, 1993 and 1998 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys. The analyses were restricted to women over 35 years old at the time of the surveys, which allowed us to use current parity as a reasonable proxy for completed fertility. Preliminary results suggest that women who had first births early tend to have a higher number of births than those whose first births occur late, regardless of birth cohort. In multivariate analyses, the effect of age at first birth as a determinant of fertility was found to be more substantial among later cohorts. The implications of the findings are discussed.     

Urbanization and fertility: An event-history analysis of Coastal Ghana

In this article, we undertake an event-history analysis of fertility in Ghana. We exploit detailed life history calendar data to conduct a more refined and definitive analysis of the relationship among personal traits, urban residence, and fertility. Although urbanization is generally associated with lower fertility in developing countries, inferences in most studies have been hampered by a lack of information about the timing of residence in relationship to childbearing. We find that the effect of urbanization itself is strong, evident, and complex, and persists after we control for the effects of age, cohort, union status, and education. Our discrete-time event-history analysis shows that urban women exhibit fertility rates that are, on average, 11% lower than those of rural women, but the effects vary by parity. Differences in urban population traits would augment the effects of urban adaptation itself. Extensions of the analysis point to the operation of a selection effect in rural-to-urban mobility but provide limited evidence for disruption effects. The possibility of further selection of urbanward migrants on unmeasured traits remains. The analysis also demonstrates the utility of an annual life history calendar for collecting such data in the field.     

对我国城市化水平滞后问题的不同看法

本文提出了现阶段我国城市化水平并不滞后的新看法 ,指出城市化是一个长期的 ,相对缓慢的过程 ,具有其特殊性和艰巨性 ,不可简单照搬国外模式 ,必须结合国情 ,恰当把握其进程 ,才能推动我国经济稳步发展。     

发达国家的城市化历程对中国的启示

自20世纪以来,发达地区的城市化过程先后经历了城市化、郊区化、逆城市化和再城市化这四个阶段。发达国家将发展稠密型城市、使大城市复苏作为解决大城市发展过程中所出现的问题的主要手段之一,这对于中国确定未来的城市化发展战略具有重要的启发意义。     

Sex preference for children in German villages during the fertility transition

In the past, parents' sex preferences for their children have proved difficult to verify. This study used John Knodel's German village genealogies of couples married between 1815 and 1899 to investigate sex preferences for children during the fertility transition. Event history analyses of couples' propensity to progress to a fifth parity was used to test whether the probability of having additional children was influenced by the sex composition of surviving children. It appears that son preference influenced reproductive behaviour: couples having only girls experienced significantly higher transition rates than those having only boys or a mixed sibset. However, couples who married after about 1870 began to exhibit fertility behaviour consistent with the choice to have at least one surviving boy and girl. This result represents a surprisingly early move towards the symmetrical sex preference typical of modern European populations.     

落后地区城镇化发展的反思及战略构想

落后地区特有的经济、社会、生态特征 ,严重制约了城镇化的进程。本文分析了落后地区的城镇化现状及存在的问题 ,提出了推进城镇化持续发展的战略构想     

Ethnicity and fertility desires in Ghana

Journal of Population Research - The extant literature shows that fertility desires are an important indicator for understanding and predicting the future course of fertility; however, little work...     

农村城镇化与新型工业化联动发展模式研究

本文以"三农"问题为切入点,结合对学术界有代表性观点的分析和评价,认为通过农村城镇化与新型工业化联动发展模式才是解决"三农"问题的根本出路,并提出了该联动发展模式的政策模型基本框架,研究了影响农村城镇化与新型工业化联动发展模式的主要因素及推进的原则和措施。     

An Empirical Approach to the Study of Well-being Among Rural Men and Women in Ghana

The paper indicates using community development and sustainable livelihood theories as lenses that well-being indicators vary among societies, especially in developing countries due cultural differences. The study which was carried in three rural communities in Ho Municipality in the Ghana was to show the extent to which men’s and women’s sense of well-being were determined by their local economic, religious, social, and education indicators; all of which were driven by their cultural values. Since men and women placed different values on religious, social, economic, education indicators, the paper discusses that their importance to overall well-being also differs between men and women.     

我国人口城镇化动因分析及效应评估

城镇化水平是衡量一个国家经济发展水平的重要指标。近年来我国的城镇化水平得到了较大提高,为我国的经济发展做出了一定的贡献。本文重点分析了人口城镇化对我国经济发展的积极影响,同时也意识到人口城镇化对我国经济发展的消极影响。因此,文章最后提出消除人口城镇化消极影响的建议和措施。     

Sibling rivalry and the gender gap: evidence from child health outcomes in Ghana

When capital and labor markets are imperfect, choice sets narrow, and parents must choose how to ration available funds and time between their children. One consequence is that children become rivals for household resources. In economies with pro-male bias, such rivalries can yield gains to having relatively more sisters than brothers. Using a rich household survey from Ghana, we find that on average if children had all sisters (and no brothers) they would do roughly 25-40% better on measured health indicators than if they had all brothers (and no sisters). The effects are as large as typical quantity-quality trade-offs, and they do not differ significantly by gender. Received: 22 May 1996 / Accepted: 13 July 1998     

论稳定低生育水平

中国经济已进入以扩大内需为主的新发展阶段,从可持续发展计,保持经济持续、快速和健康发展,必须把已出现的低生育水平稳定住。我国已经是低生育率国家,但低生育水平还不稳定。从当前和今后的发展来看,稳定低生育水平,必须使人口政策和经济政策协调起来,积极寻求扩大内需与稳定低生育水平的政策结合点,增加计划生育的政府投入,完善计划生育利益导向机制,处理好稳定现行政策与人口与计划生育工作机制改革与创新的关系。     

湖北省人口婚育状况调查分析

根据“2007年社情民意调查”的数据对湖北省样本人群的婚育状况进行了较为详细的分析,结果表明。湖北省样本人群的初婚年龄普遍提高,在婚居模式的选择上有超过一半的人口愿意婚后独立居住;在对生育意愿的调查中,多数受访者想要生育2个孩子,其比例达到68.2％,但超过一半以上的样本人群不存在明显的生育性别偏好;在影响生育的诸因素中。经济因素对人们生育行为的影响在逐渐降低,人们的生育行为更多的受到文化因素和政策因素的影响和制约。     

中国人口城市化综述

人口城市化在国家社会经济全面发展过程中具有重要作用。21世纪的中国人口城市化正在进入新的发展阶段。随着我国农村生产力水平的提高、工业化进程的加快和产业结构调整的深化,全面推进城市化的条件已经基本成熟。推进中国人口城市化,必须在我国现行城市化方针指导下,既研究世界城市化进程的一般规律,借鉴国际经验;又要结合我国城市化面临的现实国情和基本问题,逐步形成合理的城镇体系,走出符合我国国情,大、中、小城市协调发展的城市化道路。积极稳妥地推进中国人口城市化,实施可持续发展的城市化战略,也是全面建设小康社会的根本要求。     

Sibling loss and fertility desires in the high-mortality context of Peru

Despite demographers’ long-standing preoccupation with the effects of child mortality on women’s fertility desires, scholars continue to know little about the consequences of other pervasive mortality exposures. We use nationally representative data from the high-mortality context of Peru to examine whether the desire to have a(nother) child varies as a function of sibling loss and to assess heterogeneity in this association by women’s current number of children and a range of conditions related to siblings’ deaths. Women who have experienced sibling bereavement and have two or more children report higher odds of desiring another child. These effects are not contingent on the age or sex of the deceased sibling but are only significant if the sibling died during the respondent’s lifetime (not before). These findings highlight the theoretical and empirical import of investigating the relationship between fertility desires and a wider range of familial mortality exposures beyond own child mortality.     

延边城市化发展问题及对策

城市化是一个人类社会发展的共同规律。延边已经基本完成了城市化的任务,但高水平的城市化背后存在着与经济发展阶段不相适应的问题。为此应充分发挥延边中心城市的聚集极化功能,以提高延边城市化的质量。     

Estimating Housing Quality for Poverty and Development Policy Analysis: CWIQ in Ghana

Inadequate data on housing characteristics and lack of consensusregarding appropriate measures of housing quality characteristicsretard developments to meet housing needs of people in lessdeveloped countries. A constructed housing quality index is developed and Cronbach's alpha and factor analysis are employedeo evaluate its measurement properties. With data from the CoreWelfare Indicators Questionnaire (CWIQ) survey of 1997, theconstructed housing quality index identifies key factors relatedto housing quality in Ghana. Access to quality of life amenities contributes significant information and policy value to traditionalphysical attributes in modeling a housing quality index.     

经济增长、结构转变与人口城市化:基于甘肃的经验研究

经济增长伴随的产业结构和就业结构转变以及由此导致的经济要素空间聚集是人口城市化的根本动力,如果非常态的工业化路径致使这一传导机制受阻,经济增长和城市化就可能陷入低水平均衡状态.甘肃的经验数据证实了上述推断,从结构调整的视角审视甘肃的城市化战略,必须重视劳动密集型产业的发展并大力吸引东部产业转移,通过产业集群促进人口聚集.