“艳照门”明星运猜想

陈冠希及多位女艺人的艳照门事件还未平息,与陈冠希传过绯闻的女明星人人自危.不少人均对下一个受害女星会是谁热议论纷纷。在此敏感时刻,命理大师唐立淇从已曝光的四个焦点人物的星盘、预测一下在艳照门事件后他们的星途动向。     

上市公司破产风险时间效应的理论猜想

国内外已有研究主要关注破产风险的度量方法和预测效果,较少涉及企业上市后破产风险随时间变化的一般性规律问题。基于2003年3月至2015年6月中国沪深A股市场季度、半年度和年度全样本数据,利用横截面固定效应面板模型,实证判别企业破产风险特征随上市时间变化的内生性规律,并通过实证结果给出理论猜想解释上市公司破产风险存在内生性时间效应的经济学原因。实证结果表明:上市公司破产风险的时间效应显著且稳健,随上市时间变化呈现倒U型曲线规律,拐点大约出现在6.5年左右;引入偿债能力、营运能力和盈利能力等可能的影响因素作为控制变量,上市公司破产风险的时变规律仍然显著且稳健。因此,上市公司的破产风险存在时间效应,且时间效应具有内生性特征。理论猜想认为:上市条件的硬性约束、企业管理者的上市亢奋、债务的税盾效应以及企业价值影响效果的权衡导致企业破产风险特征呈现先上升再下降的倒U型内生时变规律。     

谁是詹姆斯·邦德？——007原型大猜想

伊恩·弗莱明因创作出007这一英国间谍而为世人熟知,人们都知道他是一名小说家,但很少有人知道,他本人就是个间谍。     

崇拜、幻觉、猜想——论神话的产生

马克思认为,神话是人们幻想出来的,并认为生产力是神话产生的条件,希腊神话是希腊社会生产力低下时代产生的。希腊社会是人类的"童年",早期人类富于幻想,希腊神话反映了希腊时期的社会面貌。神话应是人们崇拜、幻觉和猜想思维产生的,生产力低下不是神话产生的原因,而是产生不同特点神话的条件。人类古代有四类神话:自然神话、英雄神话、创世神话、先祖神话。四类神话的产生都是与人们崇拜、幻觉、猜想等综合思维相关的,而现代将会有更多更美丽的神话产生。     

2011年度科技猜想：宜居行星变诺亚方舟？

2012真的来了!幸好在2012到来之前,科学家们宣布,他们找到了一颗适合人类居住的系外行星。这颗被誉为“首颗适宜人类居住的类地行星”真的能成为帮助人类逃离末日的诺亚方舟吗？     

Lottery qualities

The aim of this paper is to propose a model of decision-making for lotteries. Lottery qualities are the key concepts of the theory. Qualities allow the derivation of optimal decision-making processes and are taken explicitly into account for lottery evaluation. Our contribution explains the major violations of the expected utility theory for decisions on two-point lotteries and shows the necessity of giving explicit consideration to lottery qualities. Judged certainty equivalent and choice certainty equivalent concepts are discussed in detail along with the comparison of lotteries. Examples are provided by using different test results in the literature. JEL Classification D81     

Lottery pricing under time pressure

This article investigates how subjects determine minimum selling prices for lotteries. We design an experiment where subjects have at every moment an incentive to state their minimum selling price and to adjust the price, if they believe that the price that they stated initially was not optimal. We observe frequent and sizeable price adjustments. We find that random pricing models cannot explain the observed price patterns. We show that earlier prices contain information about future price adjustments. We propose a model of Stochastic Pricing that offers an intuitive explanation for these price adjustment patterns.     

Lottery Dependent Utility: a Reexamination

In order to accommodate empirically observed violations of the independence axiom of expected utility theory Becker and Sarin (1987) proposed their model of lottery dependent utility in which the utility of an outcome may depend on the lottery being evaluated. Although this dependence is intuitively very appealing and provides a simple functional form of the resulting decision criterion, lottery dependent utility has been nearly completely neglected in the recent literature on decision making under risk. The goal of this paper is to revive the lottery dependent utility model. Therefore, we derive first a sound axiomatic foundation of lottery dependent utility. Secondly, we develop a discontinuous variant of the model which can accommodate boundary effects and may lead to a lexicographic non-expected utility model. Both analyses are accompanied by considering some functional specifications which are in accordance with recent experimental results and may have significant applications in business and management science.     

Lottery Decisions and Probability Weighting Function

This article analyzes the implications of basic lottery tests for the probability weighting function w(p). We first show that the w(p) function with one argument cannot accommodate three basic tests of lottery choice. We also discuss in detail the links between the w(p) function with one argument and the preference reversal paradox. In the last section we propose an evaluation function that accommodates the restrictions imposed by the tests and we provide an example of such function.     

"六合彩"对农村的危害及其治理

近些年来 ,博彩业在中国大陆悄然兴起，并呈愈演愈烈之势。“六合彩”作为其中的一种 ,在广东、福建等沿海农村地区已传播、蔓延了多年。它对当地的经济活动及人们社会生活的各个方面造成了许多消极的影响 ,已成为值得关注的社会问题之一。“六合彩”在香港有着较广泛的影响 ,并且还被默认为民间合法的活动。这种活动的特点是 :一般由庄家自行设定赔率 ,以每周二、四开奖的数字为中奖依据。由于这种博彩游戏属于纯粹的赌博性活动 ,所以它在大陆是被明令禁止的。可是 ,一些不法分子模仿香港的做法 ,自己当庄家 ,以香港的开彩号码为诱饵 ,并以…     

The Lottery and Income Inequality in the States*

Objective. Since the early 1970s, income inequality in the United States has increased dramatically. We examine the impact of state lotteries on income inequality in the American states from 1976–1995. Methods. We use cross‐sectional time‐series data to evaluate the effect of lotteries as well as those of other state tax policies, redistributive programs, and demographic factors on income inequality. Results. We find that state lotteries foster income concentration. Ceteris paribus, states with lotteries have higher levels of income inequality than those states without a lottery. We also find that additional demographic and policy factors have an impact on income inequality in the states. Conclusions. One of the most important policy‐oriented determinants of income inequality is the lottery and a significant portion of the increase in income inequality over our two‐decade time period is attributable to the increasing prevalence and popularity of state lotteries.     

发行社会保障彩票问题探析

发行社会保障彩票是吸引社会闲散资金 ,推动社会保障事业发展的有效途径 ,也是促进我国彩票市场发展的重要举措 ,它具有帕累托改进的性质。促进我国社会保障彩票的发行可采取以下策略 :(1 )加强宣传 ;(2 )强化管理 ;(3 )社会保障彩票的发行要经济化 ;(4)社会保障彩票的发行要法治化     

Cancer and Health Policy: The Postcode Lottery of Care

Cancer is a major cause of death and ill health, accounting for roughly one in four deaths in the UK. Concern with cancer services was expressed in the 1990s when it was reported that the quality of cancer care was patchy and variable, and clinical outcomes varied in different parts of the country. The Calman‐Hine Report (1995) produced specific recommendations for the reorganizing and reconfiguring of cancer services, but although the Conservative government, which commissioned the report, endorsed its suggestions no additional funding was provided to implement the proposed changes, and consequently there remained variations in provision across geographical areas and between patients with different cancer types. However, since 1997 the Labour government has targeted cancer, appointing a Cancer Tsar, announcing a package of measures to “fight the war against cancer”, including the publication of a National Cancer Plan (2000 ) and with Tony Blair pledging to end the postcode lottery for cancer treatment. This paper explores the concept of the “postcode lottery of cancer care”, why it exists and whether measures taken since the Calman‐Hine Report and the Cancer Plan will address it.     

Lottery Acquisition versus Information Acquisition: Prices and Preference Reversals

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - Suppose you must choose between two pieces of information A and B. In the absence of cost, you would prefer to obtain A rather than B, and in fact would be willing...