Agriculture,trade, and macroeconomics: The U.S. case

The persistent appreciation of the U.S. dollar from 1980 through 1984 raise the issue of macroeconomic impacts on trade sectors as a critical policy concern. In this article a six-variable vector autoregressive model is utilized to evaluate the dynamic effects of macroeconomic shocks on U.S. agriculture, a key trade sector. The results suggest that the impacts are substantial. Expansion of the money supply or a decline in the real interest rate or the real value of the dollar has a positive effect on agricultural exports and relative prices, whereas autonomous inflationary shocks have negative effects.     

Hispanic Intermarriage,Identification, and U.S. Latino Population Change*

Objective. This article examines the neglected role of Hispanic intermarriage and identification on Hispanic population change and Hispanic ethnicity. Methods. A trend analysis of Census data produced rates of Hispanic intermarriage and identification as Hispanic by children of intermarried Hispanics. These rates are applied to a projection model of Hispanic population change to 2025. Results. Hispanic intermarriage has been fairly stable and high, at about 14 percent. Almost two‐thirds of children of intermarried Hispanics are identified as Hispanic. The Hispanic population in 2025 is larger by almost 1 million when Hispanic intermarriage and identification rates are included in population projections. Conclusions. Failure to consider Hispanic intermarriage and identification may lead to erroneous conclusions about components of Hispanic population growth. Intermarriage and the propensity of “part‐Hispanics” to identify as Hispanic will be significant contributors to future Hispanic population growth, with implications for the meaning of Hispanic ethnicity and ethnic‐based public policies.