中国的刘易斯转折点是否到来——理论辨析与国际经验

各国农业劳动力占总劳动力的比重随着各国人均GDP增长呈现先加速下降而后减速下降的趋势,分界点就是刘易斯转折点。跨国平行数据的回归结果表明,刘易斯转折点在人均GDP为3,000—4,000美元（购买力平价2000年国际美元）之间出现。中国的人均GDP超越了这一水平,但农业劳动力比重远高于该经济发展水平下的世界平均水平,这很可能意味着中国的农业劳动力转移仍有较大潜力。     

Immigration,terrorism, and the economy

In this paper, we look at the interaction of terrorism with immigrants’ quality of life (measured by the foreign-born unemployment rate and globalization level) for OECD countries, and its impact on GDP per capita. We find strong evidence that GDP per capita is adversely affected by domestic terrorism. The magnitude of this effect is also substantial: at the sample mean, a one-standard-deviation increase in the number of domestic incidents is found to decrease GDP per capita between 5.7 % and 7.8 % of the sample average depending on the specification used. These results contrast with previous research which finds that transnational terrorism primarily affects these economic indicators. We find strong evidence that when we factor in the interaction of the foreign-born unemployment rate with either type of terrorism, an increase in the foreign-born unemployment rate decreases GDP per capita. On the policy front, we show that peace is valuable, and OECD countries will benefit by adopting policies to reduce the problem of terrorism. We also find that an increase in the foreign-born unemployment rate has a large negative impact on GDP per capita and policies that close the gap between foreign-born and native-born unemployment rates (for example, those aimed at reducing discrimination against immigrants) help the economy.     

Capital goods imports and long-run growth: Is the Chinese experience relevant to developing countries?

In this paper, we analyze the role played by capital goods imports in the long-run growth of developing countries. We focus in the case of the Chinese economy in the last few decades. We find evidence that the ratio of imported to domestic capital goods, that is, the composition of investment, as well as the capital accumulation (both physical and human), was key determinants of the long-run growth rate of per capita GDP over the analyzed period. Furthermore, our results are also consistent with the hypothesis that the link between trade openness and long-run growth operates mainly through imports. This finding supports some recent developments of Schumpeterian models of growth, and the very specific economic policy recommendations arising thereof. In short, these models state that, in the early stages of growth, government intervention to encourage an investment-based strategy, with emphasis on large investment efforts and the adoption of foreign technology, could be an appropriate strategy for development.     

Pollutant emissions,energy use and real output in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries

Industrialisation is pivotal to growth sustainability and this requires intense energy use that may invariably trigger pollutant emissions thereby necessitating some evidence-based policy concerns. This study therefore examines the dynamic connection among pollutant emission, energy use and real output per capita in SSA. Owing to cross-sectional dependence, the Prais-Winsten model with panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) alongside the panel spatial correlation consistent (PSCC) approach is applied and key findings are established. First, the EKC hypothesis holds and this is striking for both oil-rich and oil-poor SSA countries. Second, energy use induces pollutant emissions in oil-rich SSA countries but not in oil-poor SSA countries. Third, pollutant emissions and energy use are real output per capita-enhancing in SSA generally and in oil-poor countries. Thus, policy measures to safeguard efficient optimisation of energy use in ensuring a balance as well as developing SSA’s rich renewable energy sources is imperative for long-run growth.     

Has the Lewis Turning Point Arrived in China?—Theoretical Analysis and International Experience

各国农业劳动力占总劳动力的比重随着各国人均GDP增长呈现先加速下降而后减 速下降的趋势, 分界点就是刘易斯转折点。跨国平行数据的回归结果表明, 刘易斯转 折点在人均GDP为3,000-4,000美元 (购买力平价2000年国际美元) 之间出现。中国的 人均GDP超越了这一水平, 但农业劳动力比重远高于该经济发展水平下的世界平均水 平, 这很可能意味着中国的农业劳动力转移仍有较大潜力。

关键词: 刘易斯转折点 劳动力转移 跨国平行数据

Using World Bank cross-country panel data to estimate the economic development level that corresponds to the Lewis turning point, we find that as GDP per capita increases, the share of rural labor in the total labor force tends to decrease first at an accelerated rate and then, after passing the Lewis turning point, at a reduced rate. Regression analysis of cross- country panel data shows that the Lewis turning point is reached when GDP per capita reaches somewhere between US$3,000 and US$4,000 dollars (PPP, constant international US dollars for the year 2000). GDP per capita in China has exceeded this level, but the proportion of rural labor in the total labor force remains much higher than the average for countries at the same level of economic development. This may imply that there is still considerable potential for rural labor transfer in China.     

以人为本,坚持科学的发展观

发展中国家经济发展的趋势表明 ,人均GDP到 10 0 0美元后是个关键时刻。因此 ,强调以人为本、坚持科学的发展观 ,目的是 ,既要让经济持续发展 ,又要能满足人民群众不断增长的多方面需求。文章从不断提高经济增长质量、城乡协调发展与农民增收的关系、缓解就业、政府职能的转变、北京的发展等几个方面做了具体论述     

基于碳资本存量的碳排放权分配方案（英文）

为应对气候变化,全球学者提出了基于现期排放量及历史排放量的不同减排方案,但由于其难以调和发达国家和发展中国家的利益,所以不能得到普遍认可。本文提出了碳资本存量的概念,认为碳资本存量对各国当代人生活质量有很大的影响,因而它可以度量包括发达国家在内的各国应承担的历史排放责任。本文根据前人研究成果及相关数据,计算了目前中美日三国水泥、钢、铜、铝的社会蓄积量,研究设定了上述物质的碳排放系数,并在此基础上计算出中美日三国当前物质存量所内涵的碳资本量。结果表明,虽然目前中国碳资本总量已经超过美国和日本,但美日两国人均碳资本是中国的3倍。因此,发达国家承担本国历史温室气体排放责任有其坚实的物质基础,发达国家民众承担本国历史温室气体排放也有其清晰的责任链条。本文提出全球碳减排方案的设计应包括两类账户,一是基于各国人均碳资本差异的考虑历史责任的公正账户,二是基于目前各国人口数量的考虑当期公平的平等账户。本方案的优点在于有清晰的理论依据,可平衡发达国家及发展中国家的利益,并促进全球技术合作与转移,共同应对气候变化。     

Development and pollution in the Middle East and North Africa: Democracy matters

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries are among the world’s top emitters of CO₂ and SO₂ in per capita terms. The objective of this paper is to analyze whether investing in the democratic development of these countries is an effective tool to make the economic development in this region more environmentally compatible. Using panel data on the income-emission-democracy nexus in 17 MENA countries from 1980 to 2005, we find evidence that improvements in the democratic development of the MENA countries help to mitigate environmental problems. Our results clearly show that the quality of democratic institutions has a greater influence on local environmental problems than on global environmental issues in the MENA region.     

Achievers or slackers? Per capita income trends in European countries

This paper studies the catching up process of the per capita income of Western European countries for the 1870–2014 period. The contribution to the literature is twofold. First, the use of the Kejriwal and Perron (2010) algorithm allows us to detect any number of structural breaks in the level and in the trend without prior knowledge of the integration order. This is a significant improvement over the algorithms previously used in the literature which limits the number of possible structural breaks to two. In fact, we find that some countries show more than two breaks. Second, we use the longest data series in the literature. That enables us to tell a much richer story about the catching up process in Western Europe. We find that events like the World Wars, the creation of the European Economic Community and the information technology revolution, among others, were likely to cause such breaks.     

SPECIAL ISSUE： DISTRIBUTION OF NATIONAL INCOME IN A TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY Changes in the labor share of GDP： a U-shaped curve

本文的目的在于探讨经济发展过程中,劳动份额在初次分配中演变的一般规律,以及当前导致中国初次分配中劳动份额不断下降的结构性因素。我们的研究发现,在世界各国的经济发展过程中,在初次分配中劳动份额变化趋势呈现U型规律,即劳动份额先下降后上升,转折点约为人均GDP6000美元（2000年购买力平价）。我们提出了一个解释u型规律的理论模型。这一发现为库兹涅茨“倒U曲线假说”提供了更深层次的解释。我们还发现,中国初次分配中劳动份额的变动趋势是基本符合这一规律的。除此之外,影响我国劳动份额的因素还包括产业结构的以及劳动者相对谈判能力的变化。这些发现意味着,中国经济未来两年在初次分配中劳动份额可能会进入上升通道,中央政府为应对世界性金融危机而采取的一些政策性、结构性调整则有助于加快这一进程。     

Corruption, anti-corruption, and inter-county income disparity in China

The rapid economic growth in China has been connected with a large income gap across regions. While most existing research has focused on economic factors to explain the problem, we argue that local government's anti-corruption endeavors also play a very significant role in influencing local income levels. Recent research shows that corruption undermines economic growth and generates poverty, we therefore hypothesize that government anti-corruption measures should increase local income levels. Using county-level data and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimates, we find counties with higher degree of anti-corruption tend to have higher income measured by county-level per capita GDP. We also employ a recently developed Shapley value decomposition technique to quantify the contributions of each variable. We find that anti-corruption plays a large role in explaining inter-county income disparity in China.     

The E nigma of Under-urbanization: An Explanation Based on International Trade

To study the relationship between under-urbanization and international trade, we set up a model of the transfer of surplus rural labor in an open economy using 1995-2010 data from 40 countries and regions where industrialization was incomplete. Our findings indicate that if, in an open economy, there is a substantial labor surplus and in which domestic goods and services can be sold to foreign markets, there will be a significantly positive correlation between the net export ratio and the degree to which urbanization lags behind industrialization; countries or regions with higher marketization level, lower urban unemployment rate and poorer public health facilities are more likely to be under- urbanized; and an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between under-urbanization and per capita GDP.     

TRIPs与国内知识产权制度改革：中国与印度的比较研究

中国和印度参照TRIPs的规则调整了国内法律体系和相关组织机构。两国的国内知识产权制度有着深刻的国际根源。在国内改革过程中，两国都进行了一定的社会动员，为改革提供了舆论基础。中国和印度对TRIPs的遵守不仅扩大了两国的行动空间，也提高了国际知识产权规范的代表性和影响力。发达国家对包括中国和印度在内的发展中国家过于苛刻的要求没有充分考虑发展中国家的国情，也不符合知识产权发展的正常速度和轨迹。     

Corruption across countries: Impacts from education and cultural dimensions

Corruption, which is defined by Transparency International as the misuse of entrusted power for private gain, was related to the number of people participating in tertiary education across countries. It was found that as the number of people participating in tertiary education increased, the incidence of corruption occurring in the countries decreased. Similar to other studies, the higher the GDP per capita of a country, the lower the cases of corruption. Interestingly, correlation results showed that enrolment in tertiary education had a positive result with GDP per capita. Hofstede's (1984) cultural dimensions were also found to affect the acts of corruption indirectly through enrolment in tertiary education and GDP per capita. Overall, this study has included 56 countries and results were similar in two different time periods.     

Another legacy of the COVID-19 pandemic: Income divergence

The uneven economic recovery from the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020 is expected to disrupt a multi-decade trend of per capita income convergence between advanced and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). This stands in contrast to the global recession following the global financial crisis. Should downside risks to the global recovery, in particular financial market stress, materialize, they are likely to set back growth in EMDEs more than in advanced economies in part because of the more limited policy space remaining in EMDEs, and would further widen per capita income divergence.     

Changes in the world income distribution

Drawing on new international comparison estimates for 127 nations, this study examines in some detail for the decinnial years 1950–1980 the world size distribution of income. Different income concepts—national output valued in different ways, and also consumption alone; and income per-equivalent adult as well as per capita—have been considered in judging how world inequality has changed. The principal findings are: (i) at a point in time, the intercountry differences in income—differences among nations—are greater than the usually observed intracountry differences in income—differences within nations; and (ii) over time systematic differences in national economic growth rates of countries led on balance to very slightly increased intercountry inequality (quite possible not beyond the margin of measurement error) but that (and this judgment is quite tentative) the changes in intracountry inequality over time have left inequality in the overall distribution unchanged.     

Economic reform when institutional quality is weak: The case of the Maghreb

Institutional improvement can be a very slow and uncertain process when institutional quality is weak. In the meantime, countries have launched far-reaching economic reforms whose success is predicated on a large investment response. However, the uncertainties attending institutional reform can raise perceptions of risk, thereby muting investment responses. Using new values of institutional quality for three Maghreb countries (Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia), which we derive from fuzzy-set based transformations on freedom indices, we show that moving from low institutional quality to a stage of ‘partial improvement’ may reduce income per capita, with financial and trade reforms having unintended negative effects.     

A note on the determinants of sexually transmitted disease rates

This paper addresses the impact of several factors on rates of sexually transmitted disease (STD) in the United States. Similar to existing studies, which proxy health outcomes by mortality rates or life expectancy, we find that health care spending improves health outcome. That is, using annual data over the 1960–1997 period, rates of syphilis, gonorrhea, and chancroid fall with increases in per capita health care expenditure. Furthermore, per capita income, per pupil education expenditure, as well as a host of socio-demographic variables, also affect STD rates.     

The impact of adult and non-adult mortality on development: Two centuries evidence from a panel of industrial countries

This study examines the effects of adult and non-adult mortality on the long-run level of income in a heterogeneous dynamic and cross-sectionally dependent panel. Employing data for 20 countries between 1800 and 2010, it is found that (i) while non-adult mortality has no long-run effect on GDP per capita, reductions in adult mortality lead to statistically and economically significant increases in the long-run level of per capita income; (ii) there are no significant differences in the long-run effects of adult mortality and non-adult mortality on GDP per capita before and after the onset of the demographic transition; and (iii) mortality in middle adulthood has the greatest impact on economic development, whereas early adulthood mortality and mortality in later adulthood have little to no impact on the long-run level of per capita income.     

Some thoughts on the restructuring of North-South interaction

The theory of international trade presents trade as a positive-sum game for all participants. Yet, most of the negotiations between the developed and the developing countries seem to have been conducted under a perception of reality that views North-South relations as a zero-sum game. The purpose of this paper is to suggest a general framework for institutional and structural changes to benefit all participants. A number of original proposals for international reforms to support equitable development in developing countries are presented. The major element of the proposals include a Land Reform Fund, a rural and industrial development package for LDCs, support for trade liberalization of impacts from land reform countries, and an industrial Assistance Fund to help industrial countries to restructure production pattern.The proposals contain obviously far reaching national and international political implications whose impact is assessed in the concluding part of the paper. There the claim is made that unless both sets of countries find cooperation mutually attractive, they will be unable to embark in development strategies characterized by the highest chance of success and with the fewest economic and social disruptions.