SPECIAL ISSUE： REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND COORDINATED URBAN GROWTH Regional Economic Convergence Mechanisms in the Yangtze River Delta

本文运用非参数DEA分析方法,将中国经济发展的最前沿区域——长三角地区的经济增长分解为物质资本积累、效率改善、技术进步和人力资本投入等四部分,然后利用空间统计与空间计量经济分析技术,采用绝对收敛方程考察了长三角经济增长率与这四类因素的收敛效应。实证结果表明,物质资本所贡献的经济增长主导着长三角各县市区的实际经济增长;长三角区域经济增长存在显著的空间依赖性,并对经济增长的变化趋势产生明显影响;物质资本积累这一新古典经济增长因素是唯一使得长三角地区间差距缩小的因素,主导着长三角地区经济收敛的方向;人力资本、效率改善与技术进步等新经济增长因素使得长三角经济增长趋异,对长三角的经济差距也产生了深刻的影响。     

社会资本与不平等的再生产：以农民工与城市职工的收入差距为例

本文以农民工与城市职工收入差距研究为切入点,探讨社会资本对收入不平等的影响路径及其程度。通过分析中国8城市的调查数据,运用收入分解方法,考察社会资本影响农民工与城市职工收入差异的两条路径,即进入职业的机会差异和职业内的收入差异。研究结果表明,户籍制度和交往同质性原则导致农民工（相比城市职工）在社会资本存量方面更加欠缺,难以进入收入高的职业,且职业内的讨价还价能力也很有限。两种路径差异的综合,是导致农民工收入较低的重要社会原因,因此,社会资本是维持和固化社会不平等的微观机制。     

Gender inequality in human capital accumulation and economic growth: a comparative analysis of Pakistan and Sri Lanka

Even though the significance of human capital in the growth literature is well established, little evidence is available on the role of education on growth segregated on a gender basis. The present study has focused on the importance of female education and employment and queried to what extent gender inequality in education and employment has an impact on economic growth in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. To answer this question, a simultaneous equations model covering time period of 1975–2009 has been used and the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) has been applied. The results have confirmed that the gender gap in education has induced an adverse impact on economic growth, both directly and indirectly, through rapid population growth and low investment. Results also show that though there is gender inequality in human capital accumulation in both counties but the intensity is higher in Pakistan as compared to Sri Lanka. The study explored the opportunities to encourage the role of females in the developmental activities of these countries. In view of the fact that gender inequality in education is critical for growth, the study recommends that rather than slashing the PSDP (Public Sector Development Program), Pakistan needs to promote investment in human capital and that there should be equal opportunity for education and employment for both males and females in both south Asian Countries.     

如何实现碳减排约束下的经济增长--人力资本的碳减排效应分析

人力资本因素可以解决碳减排约束和经济增长之间的矛盾。通过理论和实证两方面的研究表明,技术进步是碳减排的根本途径,而人力资本建设能够促进技术进步,同样具有明显的碳减排效应,依靠人力资本建设能够实现经济增长和碳排放减少的双赢,人力资本的碳减排效应甚至超过了技术因素,因为技术进步终究是由人创造的。因此,要充分挖掘人力资本的碳减排潜力;普及减排知识,增强自觉减排意识;提高教育质量,提升公民素质。     

Capital goods imports and long-run growth: Is the Chinese experience relevant to developing countries?

In this paper, we analyze the role played by capital goods imports in the long-run growth of developing countries. We focus in the case of the Chinese economy in the last few decades. We find evidence that the ratio of imported to domestic capital goods, that is, the composition of investment, as well as the capital accumulation (both physical and human), was key determinants of the long-run growth rate of per capita GDP over the analyzed period. Furthermore, our results are also consistent with the hypothesis that the link between trade openness and long-run growth operates mainly through imports. This finding supports some recent developments of Schumpeterian models of growth, and the very specific economic policy recommendations arising thereof. In short, these models state that, in the early stages of growth, government intervention to encourage an investment-based strategy, with emphasis on large investment efforts and the adoption of foreign technology, could be an appropriate strategy for development.     

Public expenditures on education, human capital and growth in Canada: An OLG model analysis

Much of the current debate in ageing countries focuses on whether governments should increase investments in human capital. We address this issue by simulating the effects of additional education spending using an overlapping-generations model applied to Canada. In the context of population ageing, the results indicate that how the policy is funded has powerful impacts on the targeted outcomes. Higher education incentives may increase the rate of human capital accumulation and mitigate the negative effects of slowing labour force growth. However, the impact depends on the distortions implied by alternative tax instruments and the efficiency of public expenditures on education.     

经济发展方式转变的马克思主义经济理论依据——从创新资本有机构成论视角解析经济发展的持续性

马克思的资本有机构成理论,在更深刻的层面上解释可持续性经济发展问题。不变资本可以划分为有形不变资本和无形不变资本;技术进步的实质是用无形的不变资本替代有形的不变资本;以此为依据,建立资本有机构成同步指数概念。资本有机构成同步指数理论对实现经济可持续发展具有重要的指导作用。运用资本有机构成同步指数指导我国经济发展方式的转变,不能离开我国的具体国情,尤其不能离开我国在世界经济分工体系中的地位,不会在短期内得以根本性改变的实际情况。     

A Romerian contribution to the empirics of economic growth

Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992) made the Solovian set up widely used to test the determinants of economic growth and the speed of convergence. In accordance with the nature of the Solow framework, almost all empirical growth studies considered technological progress constant and identical across countries and over time, and hence underemphasized its role. In this study, in order to overcome this weakness, we propose that the Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992) set-up should be replaced by the Solovianized Romer (1990) framework, thus allowing the role of technology to be considered in the empirical analysis. In particular, within this framework, the growth rate of technology varies across economies and over time. We estimate the convergence equation derived from Solovianized Romer model for 31 OECD countries for the period 1980–2008 by applying the system GMM approach. The empirical findings of the model support the conditional convergence hypothesis, but reveal a lower convergence rate than that predicted by the existing literature. As a policy implication, we argue that, investment in R&D and human capital are important determinants of convergence, and in cases where economies are unable to allocate sufficient resources to R&D, policy makers should ease the diffusion of technology (e.g., via FDI or trade) in order to retain a high convergence rate.     

Getting low educated and older people into work: The role of fiscal policy

Raising employment, in particular employment among older individuals and low educated individuals, stands high on the agenda of policy makers in many OECD countries. Increased sensitivity in recent years to rising inequality has made the challenge only larger. In this paper we evaluate alternative fiscal policy scenarios to face this challenge. We construct and use an overlapping generations model for an open economy where individuals differ not only by age, but also by innate ability and human capital. The model allows us to study effects on aggregate employment, per capita income and welfare, as well as effects for specific age and ability groups. We show that well-considered fiscal policy changes can significantly improve macroeconomic productive efficiency, without increasing intergenerational or intragenerational welfare inequality. Our results strongly prefer a reduction in the labor tax rate on older workers and on all low-wage earners, financed by an overall reduction in non-employment benefits. An alternative financing option is to raise the consumption tax rate. These results are to be seen as long-run effects for economies at potential output.     

More social than capital: Social capital accumulation through social network exchange among legal and unauthorized Mexican migrants

Social capital is frequently used to explain many policy related outcomes, but research has not adequately explained how it is accumulated. It is unclear whether the economic or social characteristics of others in a social network motivate social capital accumulation. This lack of understanding has called some to question social capital's efficacy. Employing data from a survey of randomly selected foreign-born Mexicans in Los Angeles County, the influence of social and economic characteristics of a migrant's social network members are estimated. Results suggest a negative association with social capital accumulation for Mexican migrants with a social network member outside their neighborhood. Having married social network members is positively associated for legal Mexicans, while having network members who work in occupations requiring more social skills is positively associated for unauthorized Mexicans accumulating social capital. Measures of human and financial capital are not associated with the probability of developing social capital.     

收入不平等与个体健康——基于2005年中国综合社会调查的实证分析

文章利用2005年中国综合社会调查（CGSS2005）数据与县级社会统计资料,通过拟合多层Logistic回归模型,分析了地区收入不平等程度对个体健康状况的影响,系统检验了绝对收入理论和收入不平等理论。结果表明,即使在控制了个体收入对健康的凹陷效应之后,县级收入不平等程度仍对个体自评健康具有显著的负面影响。对收入不平等影响健康的作用机制的进一步分析表明,社会心理机制仅能部分解释不平等对健康的负面效应,而新唯物主义机制未能得到经验支持。     

资本体现式技术进步及其对经济增长的贡献率(1981—2007)(英文)

本文将资本分为建筑资本和设备资本两类,利用内生经济增长模型阐释资本体现式技术进步对经济增长的作用,并利用资本质量指数调整设备资本存量,考察资本即期服务效率调整后的资本体现式技术进步对我国经济增长的贡献率,结果显示:设备资本投资中的体现式技术进步年均增长率为4.78%,对经济增长的贡献率为10.6%,占资本贡献的14.8%。技术进步贡献呈阶段性变化,且不同类型技术进步贡献出现分化。相对于20世纪80年代,90年代后资本体现式技术进步贡献呈下降趋势,而中性技术进步贡献呈现先降后升的变化特征,但降幅大、升幅小。     

Investment Resources

The need to adjust economic policy in the direction of creating conditions for economic growth is an urgent demand of the Russian business community. In concentrated terms, economic growth is the accumulation of capital. All contradictions and weaknesses of current economic policy are specifically centered here. It would seem that the transition to the market and privatization should trigger a boom in the production and accumulation of capital. In fact, however, specifically the investment sphere was hardest hit by the crisis.     

Secondary school dropout and work outcomes in ten developing countries

This paper analyzes the impact of secondary school dropout on the work outcomes of young people in ten developing countries. Understanding such a phenomenon is important because it may affect work prospects, exacerbate income inequality and determine macroeconomic lasting effects given that the formation of a skilled workforce is a key element of economic development and growth.When accounting for endogeneity, we find that secondary school dropout decreases the probability of being employed in non-elementary occupations, suggesting that unskilled workers fail to meet the increasing demand for a skilled workforce. Secondary school dropout, indeed, hinders the accumulation of adequate levels of human capital and anticipates entry into the unskilled labor market.Thus, policy-makers should aim at the extension and efficacy of compulsory education to the secondary level to avoid future under-education problems to promote a skilled workforce and encourage economic development and growth in the long run.     

Is democracy pro poor in Sub-Saharan Africa?

This study examines if democracy reduces poverty in 40 Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1999–2018. For this purpose, we employ the Generalised Method of Moments. The results show that democracy is not directly associated with poverty reduction in sub-Saharan Africa. However, this observation hides important non-linearities and an interesting pattern of policy complementarities. Indeed, democracy is associated with poverty reduction in countries where economic growth is strong and human capital high. The robustness tests carried out do not change these results. This means that poor economic growth and weak human capital not only have a direct negative effect on the well-being of SSA countries, but also prevent the poor in those countries from benefitting the gains of democracy. Therefore, in order to reduce poverty in SSA, policy makers should continue the process of democratization while simultaneously adopting policies of economic development and human capital building. Democracy in isolation is useless for the poor in SSA.     

The impact of population aging in rich countries: What’s the future?

The paper examines the impact of population ageing on macroeconomic outcomes, inflation and labour force participation employing a sample of 23 OECD developed countries from 1960 to 2014 and accounting for the institutional context. Controlling for collective bargaining coordination the results show that a larger elderly share of population would lead to lower real GDP growth, albeit mostly in countries with low population growth rates. Ageing puts substantial downward pressure on inflation due to subdued aggregate demand. Also, results demonstrate that the ageing of the workforce tends to reduce labour supply. To mitigate any adverse effects of population ageing, a combination of labour market policies, pension reforms, greater investment in human capital and technological innovation should be prioritized in policy making.     

Women's Wages: Cohort Differences in Returns to Education and Training Over Time*

Objective. This article examines the effects of education and work‐related training on wage‐growth trajectories for two cohorts of women as they aged from their early 20s and 30s into their early 30 s and 40 s. I test whether occupational training compensates for an earlier lack of education, thereby decreasing earnings inequality over time within cohorts. Because the broader economic context may influence the relationship between wages, education, and training, I test the assumption that the experiences of a given cohort may be generalized to others. Methods. Following NLS Young Women between 1977 and 1987 and NLSY79 Women between 1988 and 1998, growth‐curve analyses test whether returns to investments in human capital vary over time, across and within cohorts. Results. Women who did not update their skills over time experienced stagnation or declines in real wages, leading to growing wage inequality within education levels. However, women without a high school degree who engaged in on‐the‐job training experienced the greatest returns to training, thus reducing the initial education‐based wage gap. Conclusion. Education and training in adulthood can deflect the accumulation of disadvantage, but can also solidify an already uneven distribution of resources across social strata.     

The long-lasting effects of school entry age: Evidence from Italian students

Using data for 9, 13 and 15-year-old students from three different datasets (PIRLS-2006, TIMSS-2007 and PISA-2009), we investigate whether the age at school entry affects children school performance at the fourth, eighth and tenth grade levels. Since student's age in a grade may be endogenous, we use an instrumental variable estimation strategy exploiting the exogenous variations in the month of birth coupled with the entry school cut-off date. We find that younger children score substantially lower than older peers at the fourth, the eighth and the tenth grade. The advantage of older students does not dissipate as they grow older. We do not find any significant effect of the relative age of a child with respect to the classmates’ age. Finally, we show that secondary school students are more likely to be tracked in more academic schools rather than in vocational schools if they are born in the early months of the year. From a policy point of view our results suggest that it might be useful to postpone the entry at school of children, or at least pupils should be prevented to anticipate the age of their entry at school. Tracking should also be delayed.     

The equalizing role of human resource intensive growth strategies: A theoretical model

Empirical evidence concerning the relationship between education-intensive development strategies and income distribution is used to formulate a growth model in which the variance of the dispersion rate of income is linked to the human and physical capital intensity of production. It is shown that, under plausible assumptions, the growth trajectory does not have a unique steady state. Of the possible steady states, for any two steady states characterized by equal per capita output and by different combinations of physical capital-labor ratio and average human capital, the income distribution associated with the steady state with the higher level of average human capital is Lorenz superior.