Developments in General and Syndromic Surveillance for Small Area Health Data

In this paper we examine a range of issues related to the analysis of health surveillance data when it is spatially-referenced. The importance of considering alarm functions derived from likelihood or Bayesian models is stressed. In addition, we focus on some new developments in predictive distribution residuals in the analysis.     

公共卫生投资的空间计量经济分析

运用空间计量经济学方法研究了1997-2004年30个省的政府卫生投资的空间特征,结果显示：政府卫生投资具有空间溢出作用,这种作用在逐年增强;政府卫生投资在空间上存在着显著的互补效应,说明地方政府之间有“邻里模仿”行动;政府卫生支出不是“奢侈品”。     

财政分权、户籍管制与基本公共服务供给——基于公共服务分类视角的动态空间计量检验

本文分别从财政和户籍视角对基本公共服务进行分类,构建理论框架探讨财政分权与户籍管制对各类公共服务供给的影响,测算了我国30个省2001-2013年各类公共服务供给水平,并运用动态空间自回归及面板门限模型对理论假设进行实证检验.研究结果表明,财政分权对基本公共服务供给的促进作用主要表现在“经营性”公共服务层面;放松户籍管制有利于公共服务供给但对发达地区起反作用,严格的户籍管制会刺激“软”公共服务供给并加剧户籍层面的公共服务非均等化;财政分权的户籍效应促使地方政府放松户籍管制提高公共服务水平,但对发达地区起反作用,从分类视角看则会抑制“软”公共服务供给.     

A Sequential Point Process Model and Bayesian Inference for Spatial Point Patterns with Linear Structures

Abstract. We introduce a flexible spatial point process model for spatial point patterns exhibiting linear structures, without incorporating a latent line process. The model is given by an underlying sequential point process model. Under this model, the points can be of one of three types: a ‘background point’ an ‘independent cluster point’ or a ‘dependent cluster point’. The background and independent cluster points are thought to exhibit ‘complete spatial randomness’, whereas the dependent cluster points are likely to occur close to previous cluster points. We demonstrate the flexibility of the model for producing point patterns with linear structures and propose to use the model as the likelihood in a Bayesian setting when analysing a spatial point pattern exhibiting linear structures. We illustrate this methodology by analysing two spatial point pattern datasets (locations of bronze age graves in Denmark and locations of mountain tops in Spain).     

网络舆论倾向性的动态跟踪方法及实证研究

从统计学视角审视网络舆论倾向性的监测问题,提出了以粗糙分类器为基础建立舆论倾向性分类模型,将复杂的预警指标体系简化为单一直观的跟踪统计量,并通过跟踪统计量动态跟踪舆论倾向性变化轨迹的研究方法。实证研究以2011年郭美美事件相关新闻跟帖为对象。分析表明,网络舆论的消极倾向性在整个事件发展过程中呈持续增长,与基本事实相符,证实了方法的可行性和适用性。