Why China＇s Tax Revenue Is Likely to Maintain Its Rapid Growth： An Explanation within the Framework of Tax Capacity and Tax Effort

在税收能力和税收努力的理论框架下,分析中国税收高速增长的源泉,可以发现,在分税制改革后,中国税收长时间高速增长的原因主要表现在三个方面：分税制的税收分权契约性质具有强烈的税收激励作用;间接税的制度设计放大了纳税人的纳税能力;我国正处于“税收增长红利”集中释放期。未来第一种因素的作用将减弱,第二种因素的作用部分消失,第三种因素的作用依旧存在。从长期看,由于税收增长红利仍将持续很长一段时期,税收仍可能保持较高速度的增长。     

Effects of flat tax reforms in Western Europe

Recent success of the flat income tax in Eastern Europe raises questions about whether there is scope for such a policy reform in Western Europe as well. We address this by estimating the potential distributional impact of various flat taxes for selected Western European countries. Our simulations show that in specific circumstances a revenue neutral flat tax reform can increase income equality and improve work incentives; however, in most cases there is an equity-efficiency trade-off. We show that the specific flat tax design and the welfare state regime play a key role.     

论产权结构多元化对税制结构的影响

在产权结构多元化的过程中,随着所有权不断分割、裂变成各式各样的产权以及产权不断被明晰界定,新的产权主体会获得收益,这种收益的产生一方面源自于激励,另一方面源自于对闲置资源的利用,其结果是开辟了新的税源,进而提高所得税收入、影响税制结构。这意味着,在解决税收收入不足以及税收调节问题时,可以不局限于传统的手段,通过在产权结构多元化过程中对不同产权主体的清晰界定与保护,同样可以促进新税基的产生,进而起到优化税制的作用。     

Should commodity tax rates be uniform across regions in a heterogeneous country? Evidence from India

With countries increasingly adopting the Goods and Services Tax (GST) as their system of commodity taxes replacing the myriad of sales, excise and other form of indirect taxes, there is a move towards the two features that characterize the GST: uniform tax rates across items and identical tax rates across regions. When India introduced the GST in 2017, it followed several other countries in departing from the first feature but in keeping with universal practice embraced the second feature. The chief motivation of this paper is to subject this latter feature to critical scrutiny. The study examines the four GST rates in India by comparing them with counterfactual evidence based on preference based optimal commodity tax rates estimated by taking into account regional diversity in prices and spending. The benchmarking suggests that the current top GST rates (12%, 16% and 28%) are much higher than can be justified by the optimal rates. The Indian evidence is also in favor of departing from the universal practice in GST of adopting a uniform tax across items. The paper makes a methodological contribution by proposing a procedure for calculating spatial prices that can be applied to a wide basket of items. The study provides evidence on the redistributive potential of indirect taxation by showing the progressive nature of the optimal commodity taxes. The latter result is of particular significance in developing countries where indirect taxes raise the greater share of revenue and provide an important policy tool for tackling increasing inequality. The study concludes with a list of policy lessons as the country seeks to make further changes to its GST. While there is a significant literature on harmonization of indirect taxes across countries that belong to a single economic grouping such as the EU, there is no such literature between regions within a large heterogeneous country. The present study on tax harmonization between the states in India attempts to fill this gap.     

Fiscal harmonization in view of the Euro adoption: Economic implications for Poland

In this paper, we investigate the ex ante effects of fiscal policy harmonization that might be necessary for the adoption of the common currency on economic growth in Poland using a neoclassical dynamic two-sector general equilibrium model. We study two fiscal policy scenarios. In the first one, we adjust all taxes to German and EU-27 levels, respectively, while in the second one, we change only consumption taxes to German and EU-27 levels. We find that in the first scenario, the current Polish taxes yield the highest rate of growth due to lower capital taxation. However, in the second scenario, German and EU-27 taxes yield the highest rate of growth due to the lower consumption tax on capital-intensive good. From a policy perspective, our results suggest that fiscal policy with lower taxes on capital and capital-intensive goods can generate a higher rate of growth in the long-run. In the case of fiscal harmonization, our findings propose adopting only German or EU-27 consumption tax structure into the Polish tax system.     

Social security contributions: Economic and public finance considerations

Social security contributions make up around a fourth of total tax revenue in OECD countries. However, there are concerns on the economic effects of high levies on labour. Recent studies suggest that at least a third of taxes on labour are shifted onto employers, leading to higher wage costs. We find substantial evidence in the literature that the nature of social security contributions matters. With a clear connection between contributions and rights, the employee will perceive this contribution as a price and not as a tax. As a consequence, these contributions will be less distortive in terms of labour supply, wage costs and private savings.     

What Shapes Attitudes Toward Paying Taxes? Evidence from Multicultural European Countries*

Objectives. Considerable evidence suggests that enforcement efforts cannot fully explain the high degree of tax compliance. To resolve this puzzle of tax compliance, several researchers have argued that citizens' attitudes toward paying taxes, defined as tax morale, helps to explain the high degree of tax compliance. However, most studies have treated tax morale as a black box, without discussing which factors shape it. Additionally, the tax compliance literature provides little empirical research that investigates attitudes toward paying taxes in Europe. Methods. Thus, this article is unique in its examination of citizen tax morale within three multicultural European countries, Switzerland, Belgium, and Spain, a choice that allows far more detailed examination of the impact of culture and institutions using data sets from the World Values Survey and the European Values Survey. Results. The results indicate the tendency that cultural and regional differences affect tax morale. Conclusion. The findings suggest that higher legitimacy for political institutions leads to higher tax morale.     

Tax collection efficiency in OECD countries improves via decentralization,simplification, digitalization and education

This paper offers an assessment of tax administration performance and provides evidence of the relationship between fiscal decentralization (and tax structure) and the technical efficiency of tax collection. The initial stage of the investigation consists of a data envelopment analysis (DEA) to obtain technical efficiency estimates for a sample of 28 OECD countries over the period 2004–2017. In a second stage, we explore how technical efficiency is affected by fiscal decentralization and tax structure variables. The results show how the degree of fiscal decentralization has a positive and significant impact on the technical efficiency of tax collection. They also reveal a relevant role of tax structure choices and the ratio of indirect to direct taxes, which can significantly affect tax collection efficiency. Finally, we extract some policy implications.     

税收质量的界定、制度比较与借鉴

税收质量是指税收效率、税收公平及两者均衡的状态,主要体现在税收结构、税收分权体制以及税收征收管理机制三个方面上。不同经济发展水平国家的税收质量存在着较大差异性。税收质量要注重长远利益与现实利益的兼顾,在利益导向和控制导向基础上平衡各级政府的税权划分,不断强化以税收服务和监督保障为核心的税收征收管理运行机制。从短期看,我国税收质量仍旧要以税收效率作为主要目标,兼顾税收公平作用的发挥;随着生产力水平的不断提高,要逐步强化税收公平,以税收公平促进税收效率。     

The economic effects of carbon tax on China’s provinces

The responsibility for carbon emissions tends to be different under different emission accounting principles. By applying the latest 2012 Chinese multi-regional input–output table, this study evaluated the impacts of carbon tax on tax burdens and sectoral competitiveness in Chinese provinces when considering either production-based or consumption-based emissions. Our results indicated that, in the scenario of cutting production tax for carbon tax, the developed provinces, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, who are much bigger payers of production tax, are net beneficiaries of carbon tax. In contrast, recycling the tax revenues to low-income households makes the less-developed provinces in the central and western China become net revenue receivers. Furthermore, for competitiveness effects, the emission intensive sectors, such as Electricity and hot water production and supply, Petroleum and gas, and Metal products, are impacted vitally under both accounting principles in all provinces. Nevertheless, compared with the production-based principle, a consumption-based carbon tax could reduce the unfavorable competitiveness effects of most affected sectors in the less-developed provinces, while slightly increasing those effects in the developed provinces. Our results provide new information on the regional impacts of carbon tax based two different accounting principles with different tax revenue recycling scenarios.     

Why China’s Tax Revenue Is Likely to Maintain Its Rapid Growth: An Explanation within the Framework of Tax Capacity and Tax Effort

在税收能力和税收努力的理论框架下, 分析中国税收高速增长的源泉, 可以发 现, 在分税制改革后, 中国税收长时间高速增长的原因主要表现在三个方面: 分税制 的税收分权契约性质具有强烈的税收激励作用; 间接税的制度设计放大了纳税人的纳 税能力; 我国正处于“税收增长红利”集中释放期。未来第一种因素的作用将减弱, 第二种因素的作用部分消失, 第三种因素的作用依旧存在。从长期看, 由于税收增长 红利仍将持续很长一段时期, 税收仍可能保持较高速度的增长。关键词: 税收增长 税收分权 税收能力 税收努力 An analysis of the dynamics of the rapid growth of tax revenue in China within the framework of tax capacity and tax effort reveals three major drivers following the tax sharing reform. First, the nature of the decentralization contract under the tax sharing system provides strong incentives for taxation. Second, the system of indirect taxes boosts taxpayers’ taxable capacity. And third, China is enjoying the intensively present tax growth dividend. In the future, the first factor will diminish; the second factor will partially cease functioning; and the third factor will remain constant. Over the long term, the tax growth dividend will be long lasting and tax revenue will keep growing at a high speed.     

Spillover effects of taxes on government debt: a spatial panel approach

It is claimed that tax policy is neither time- nor space-independent due to cross-border tax base mobility, which induces spillovers. Specifically, fiscal shocks in one country are supposed to have an impact on fiscal policies in other countries. Different types of taxes influence economies differently. This paper addresses the question of their impact on government debt. Within a framework of spatial econometric modeling, we evaluate the impact of capital, labor and consumption taxes on public debt in 34 European countries in 2002–2011, and find strong spatial spillovers. We show that a consumption tax and, to a lesser degree, a capital tax significantly affect the sovereign debt, and that the global relations play a leading role (i.e. dominate the local ones) in shaping fiscal policy.     

现代企业纳税筹划策略研究

企业面对着日益激烈的市场竞争,内部费用成本的压缩空间越来越小,而作为企业外部成本的税收,其数额的多少严重地影响着企业的实际经济效益。因此,如何科学地进行纳税筹划,实现税额的最小化,已越来越为企业所重视。     

Reducing the regressivity of indirect taxation in Brazil through a personalized value-added tax

ICMS is a value-added tax and the most important tax in Brazil in terms of revenue. This paper investigates the technical feasibility and impact of a reform to ICMS. The aim of the reform is twofold, on the one hand, to modernize the tax and redress some current flaws in terms of neutrality, simplicity and transparency and, on the other, to reduce its regressivity, increase redistribution, reduce poverty and impact positively on social welfare (without a loss in the tax revenue). A static behavioral microsimulation model was purpose-constructed to study the proposed reform. The new tax simplifies the current system by introducing a single general tax rate and an increased rate for alcoholic beverages and tobacco, without exemptions, combining this with a total or partial refund for the poorest families. The empirical results show that the new tax is superior to the current one, both in terms of efficiency and equity.     

Were We Really All in it Together? The Distributional Effects of the 2010–15 UK Coalition Government's Tax‐benefit Policy Changes

This article examines the distributional impacts of changes to benefits, tax credits, pensions and direct taxes between the UK general elections of May 2010 and May 2015. The changes did not have a common effect on all household incomes; nor did the direct tax‐benefit changes contribute to deficit reduction. Effectively, reductions in benefits and tax credits financed part of the direct taxes cuts, but the overall net fiscal cost increased pressure for cuts in other public services and increases in other (more regressive) taxes. The main gains were in the upper middle of the income distribution, and the main losers were at the bottom and those close to, but not at, the very top. Across most of the distribution the changes were regressive. By comparing with other analyses of policy changes in the same period, we illustrate the importance of analytical choices and assumptions for detailed conclusions on their distributional effects. We also show how some groups were clear losers or gained little on average – including lone parent families, large families and families with younger children. Others were gainers, including two‐earner couples, and those in their fifties and early sixties. The findings show that a dominant feature of the period was that the combination of higher tax‐free income tax allowances, financed by cuts in benefits and tax credits, was generally regressive. As this combination also lies at the heart of the proposed policies of the Conservative government since 2015, we would expect these effects to be intensified in the coming years.     

Reducing U.S. carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of different instruments

The possibility that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use might lead to global warming has become a leading environmental concern. Many scientific and environmental organizations have called for immediate action to limit carbon dioxide production. For the most part, however, public debate has focused on a single policy instrument: a carbon tax applied to fossil fuels in proportion to their carbon content. We present a detailed model of the U.S. economy and use it to compare carbon taxes with two other instruments that could achieve the same reduction in carbon dioxide emissions: a tax on the energy content of fossil fuels (a BTU tax) and an ad valorem tax on fuel use. We find that carbon taxes can achieve a given reduction with the least overall effect on the economy, but with a large effect on coal mining. Energy taxes are fairly similar to carbon taxes but have slightly less impact on coal mining and slightly greater overall cost. In contrast, ad valorem taxes fall much more lightly on coal mining but have a much greater effect on the economy as a whole.     

Analysis of state general sales tax policy: A complementary approach to the effects of causes and the causes of effects

Previous research and theory on state general sales tax policy provide the major factors and components of the sales tax base that affect revenue reliance and tax burden. However, previous research on general sales tax policy has concentrated on individual factors and components of the sales tax base without considering the interdependent and interrelated causes of revenue reliance and tax burden. In addition, regression-based analyses are limited in analyzing the causal conjunctures that affect revenue reliance and tax burden. Thus, this research focused on a complementary approach to the effects of causes and the causes of effects, thereby empirically examining the combined causes of revenue reliance and tax burden through a (fs) QCA analysis of U.S. state data spanning from 2007 to 2010. This study reveals that the combined causes of revenue reliance and tax burden vary as ideal types compared with the effects of real types observed in the panel data analysis. This study contributes to the current literature by examining interrelated and interdependent causal relationships with regard to revenue reliance and tax burden in a complementary manner. State governments must consider the combined effects of causal conjunctures that affect revenue reliance and tax burden.     

Fiscal Policy and Urban and Rural Residents＇ Marginal Propensity to Consume

基于代表性家庭最优消费决策及其与财政政策的关系,估计中国财政政策对城乡居民边际消费倾向的影响,结果表明,自1998年至今,城乡居民边际消费倾向的下降幅度超过20％。城乡居民边际消费倾向下降,．除源于收入分配、经济发展程度、预期、消费结构等因素的影响外,与财政政策运用也有很大关系。其中,未预期到的财政政策冲击对居民边际消费倾向产生的综合效应显著为负。以未预期到的税收增加为融资工具的策略选择,大大抑制了结构调整的正面效应。因此,扩大居民消费,不仅要通过财政增收,提高居民消费能力,而且要通过调整财政收支策略,稳定居民消费预期,提升居民边际消费倾向。     

Climate change and credit risk: The effect of carbon tax on Italian banks' business loan default rates

Climate change poses severe systemic risks to the financial sector through multiple transmission channels. In this paper, we estimate the potential impact of different carbon taxes (€50, €100, €200 and €800 per ton of CO2) on the Italian banks’ default rates at the sector level in the short term using a counterfactual analysis. We build on the micro-founded climate stress test approach proposed by Faiella et al. (2022), which estimates the energy demand of Italian firms using granular data and simulates the effects of the alternative taxes on the share of financially vulnerable agents (and their debt). Credit risks stemming from the introduction of a carbon tax - during periods of low default rates - are modest for banks: on average, over a one-year horizon, the default rates of firms increase but remain below their historical averages. The effect is heterogeneous across different sectors and rises with the tax value; however, even assuming a tax of €800 per ton of CO2, the default rates are below their historical peaks.     

PUBLIC WEALTH,PUBLIC HEALTH,AND PRIVATE STEALTH: EXAMINING THE BLACK MARKET IN CIGARETTES IN AUSTRALIA

Taxes on tobacco provide a significant income for the Australian government — $5.1 billion in 2001. At the same time, health officials are making strenuous efforts to reduce smoking, particularly among teenagers. Some economists suggest that raising taxes on tobacco will produce more revenue while at the same time lowering smoking rates, particularly among youths who have less discretionary spending power than adults. But a by‐product of excise tax in Australia has been the emerging market in “chop‐chop,” tobacco diverted from legal channels by growers who receive considerably higher prices for a part of their yield than they can obtain from legal manufacturers. The article details this situation and suggests that only bold solutions may be able to reduce tensions in tax policies, smoking rates and the “chop‐chop” black market.