中国人口迁移与生育率关系研究

本文利用2000年人口普查数据,考察了中国人口迁移与生育率的关系。通过比较农村本地人口、城市本地人口和流动迁移人口三个人口群体在生育率上的差异,并进行多元统计分析,结果表明,流动迁移对生育率有着非常显著影响,城市外来人口的生育率不仅显著低于农村本地人口,而且也低于城市本地人口;远期流迁人口的生育率要低于近期流迁人口的生育率。中国人口迁移与生育率的关系出现了与已有的迁移生育率理论的不一致。1990年代中国的迁移生育率发生了转变。     

劳动力迁移对收入分配的影响研究——以重庆市为例

劳动力迁移对收入分配影响的实证研究,可以度量我国劳动力迁移对收入水平提高程度和收入分配不均等程度,证实劳动力迁移可以大大提高迁移劳动力的收入水平,对于缩小地区、城乡之间以及不同人口特征的收入分配差距具有积极作用,稳定有序的劳动力迁移对于经济社会持续发展提供动力。     

大城市外来人口迁移行为影响因素分析

利用2008年四大城市的外来人口问卷调查资料,运用多层次Logit模型分析影响大城市外来人口迁移行为的个体因素和迁入地因素。研究发现,外来人口的迁移行为发生较大的变化,城城迁移所占比重的上升导致性别、婚姻状况以及户口类型等因素对迁移概率的影响并不显著,迁移更多地表现为以家庭为单位;由于外来人口在就业和工资收入上受到不同程度的歧视,加之迁入地产业结构调整升级,就业岗位的增加对外来人口的吸引力有所下降,并且其预期收入水平与城市居民平均收入水平相脱离;城市平均工资增长率的提高对非正规部门劳动力产生了挤出效应,减小了潜在迁移者的迁移概率。     

WOrkers for Australia: a profile of british and Irish migrants assisted to New South Wales in 1841

Convict transportation to New South Wales was terminated in 1841. It was swiftly replaced by a new population stock in the form of the greatest Australian immigration before the gold rushes. This profile of 20,000 British and Irish assisted migrants, based on individual-level data, establishes their age, sex, religious, educational and occupational characteristics. Their composition differed markedly from the existing colonial population and other migrant flows at the time. They reflected the recruiting methods of the time as well as the changing migration propensities in the British Isles. The migrants were better human capital than was acknowledged at the time. They constituted a new start in Australian demographic development. This reconstruction of the socio-economic characteristics of the 1841 migrants provides a new mid-century benchmark for systematic comparisons with other migrant populations, within and beyond Australia, and in other periods. It is a contribution to the quantitative study of colonial society.     

人口流动家庭化及其影响因素——以北京市为例

文章基于2006年北京市1‰流动人口抽样调查,考察北京市流动人口的家庭模式及其流动家庭化的影响因素。调查结果显示,北京市流动人口的家庭化率已达到60%。流动人口家庭模式是以一对夫妻户和一对夫妻加孩子户为主的核心家庭为主导,以一代户和二代户为主。3/4的已婚流动人口携带了配偶,有孩子的流动人口中有一半携带了孩子,这些孩子中有近20%是在北京出生的。流动人口的平均家庭规模为2人,明显小于全国农村的平均家庭规模(3.4人)。流动人口的个人特征及在京居住地显著影响人口流动家庭化,同时还发现非经济因素成为比经济因素更为重要的人口流动家庭化影响因素。     

中国农村地区的家庭禀赋与外出务工劳动力回流

中国农村地区家庭禀赋对个人的行为决策有着重要的影响,需要学术界予以更多的关注。为了考察外生性的家庭禀赋对劳动力就业流动的影响,文章通过构建新生代外出务工劳动力和户主子女的回流决策两个计量模型来进行经验论证。分析结果表明,农村劳动力的迁移选择是综合考虑家庭禀赋状况的理性决策,尤其是对于年轻一代的外出劳动力。家庭经济资本的增加会阻碍家庭外出务工成员的回流。外出劳动力回流的概率起初随着家庭人力资本和家庭自然资本的增长而上升,达到一定程度后开始下降。家庭成员只有拥有较为丰富的人力资本,外出务工劳动力才能对家庭社会资本加以充分利用。另外,分析显示年轻一代劳动力和第一代劳动力对家庭社会资本和自然资本的利用是有差异的。     

劳动力流动对城镇失业的影响研究

文章探讨了家庭决策下农村劳动力流动对城镇失业的影响,认为劳动力回流会降低流入者的现存失业率进而拉低城镇总体失业率。基于2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,作者对城镇失业与其相关因素进行了回归分析。结果发现,就失业概率而言,农村流入人口远低于城镇居民;镇居民低于市居民;女性高于男性;年轻组远高于其他年龄组;受过高等教育的人口总体最低,但高校新近毕业生却较高。另外,区域发展模式影响其失业模式。失业水平在东北、武汉、重庆老工业基地出现了本地居民、农民工和总体均高的三高模式,在京、津、沪和珠三角地区出现了本地居民高、农民工低和总体居中的高低中模式,仅在国有、私营、和三资企业平衡发展的华东沿海地区出现了本地居民低、农民工低和总体低的三低模式。     

Multilevel Determinants of Colleges/Universities Enrolment in Vietnam: Evidences from the 15% Sample Data of Population Census 2009

In an increasingly knowledge-based globalized world, higher education, advanced training and skill development are critical priorities for Vietnam. This paper aims to estimate the participation in higher education and its regional distribution in Vietnam, and to identify its determinants at the individual and contextual levels. Data used were from Vietnam Population and Housing Census 2009 linked with Vietnam living standard survey 2009. The participation rate overall in the colleges/universities among 19–22 year olds in Vietnam was 16.3%, but this rate varied significantly across the provinces. Household socioeconomic status, gender, ethnic group, migrant status, and urban/rural residence were significant individual level predictors of participation while indicator of fertility stabilization, income distribution, and average education level were significant predictors at the contextual (provincial) level. The results show that individual, social and regional inequalities are important impediments to higher education participation among the Vietnam youth. The government needs to pay more attention to promoting higher education and training in order to position Vietnam in the global economy.     

Circular migration, small-scale logging, and household livelihoods in Uganda

Little is known about the contribution of migrant logging to rural livelihoods in East Africa. In this paper, we analyze logging by circular migrants in land constrained and population dense southwestern Uganda. Drawing on a sample of 180 households, including both migrant and non-migrant households, we describe the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of migrant loggers, estimate the contribution of migrant logging to household income portfolios, test several hypotheses regarding why households decide to undertake this relatively risky activity, and explore the role of social networks as a determinant of higher incomes for migrant loggers. We find that household endowments of land, labor, and capital are different for migrant logger and comparison group households. Above all, labor endowments appear to be driving decisions to participate in logging. We find support for two migration hypotheses: higher expected incomes and wages at destination; and relative deprivation at origin. We find strong evidence that migrant logging reduces income inequality in the home community.     

Who moves and who stays? Rural out-migration in Nigeria

Data from the nationally representative 1993 Migration and Urbanization Survey of Nigeria are used to simultaneously examine the patterns of rural-rural and rural-urban migration in Nigeria. A multinomial logistic regression model predicts the independent and collective association between individual, household, and regional variables and migration from rural areas to rural and urban destinations. Associations between education, religion and ethnicity and migration propensities exist at the national level. The Kanuri-Shua Arabs are generally non-migrants, the Hausa-Fulani and Yoruba are predominantly rural-rural migrants and the Igbo-Ibibio and Urhobo-Isoko-Edo are predominantly ruralurban migrants. Christians are significantly more mobile than Muslims. While the highly educated are most likely to choose an urban destination, a significant proportion migrate to other rural areas. Concern over population concentration is not supported, as rural migrants move to all regions and to urban and rural areas.     

劳动力回流后的个人发展及影响因素研究述评

迁移劳动力返乡后,利用外出务工期间积累的资本、技术从事自我经营,或者创办实业,发展新的产业,成为当前农村劳动力转移的一个新现象。国内外学术界关于迁移劳动力回流后个人发展的研究,主要关注的是回流劳动力就业行为和收入能力,分析外出务工经历对农村劳动力职业转变和创业行为的影响,并考察了迁移劳动力返乡以后,是否会促进技术的改进和新技能的传播。迁移劳动力回流后的就业选择将对回流地的就业结构、就业机会和工资结构等产生怎样的影响,有待进一步检验。     

A study of migration to Greater Santiago (Chile)

The most significant results of a survey in Greater Santiago in 1962 by the Latin American Demographic Center are presented in this paper. The population studied had slightly more than 2 million inhabitants at the time the survey was taken. A probability sample was drawn and interviews were taken without regard to the migration status of the household. The interview schedules were designed to obtain data on the demographic and social aspects of the migrant as contrasted with the non-migrant population. Migration history, the objective and subjective factors that appear to have "motivated" movement to Santiago, and other aspects oj the migratory move itself were also topics of inquiry.Tabulations of this survey portray Santiago as a city of great in-migration. The flow is estimated to be between 1.5 and 1.7 percent per year. Among the population 15 years of age or over, about 50 percent were found to be migrants from outside the metropolitan area. A high level of flow has been sustained for several decades, for only 60 percent of the total in-migrants have arrived during the last twenty years.Migration to Santiago was found to be selective by sex. For each two male in-migrants there were three female migrants. Migration was also selective by age. During the decade preceding the survey, two-thirds had arrived before attaining their twenty-fifth birthday. Forty-four percent of the men and 51 percent of the women had been between 15 and 29 years of age at time of arrival. The migrants had moved very little before their journey to Santiago. Among those who were 15 years of age or older at the time of migration, more than half had moved directly from their place of birth to Santiago. Prior mobility was slightly higher among persons coming from rural or semiurban origins than among those coming from urban origins.Two-thirds of the in-migrants arrived from urban places (places of 5,000 or more inhabitants in 1952). Despite the fact that in 1952 almost 50 percent of Chile's population outside Santiago was genuinely rural, only 13 percent of the in-migrants came from such origins. The balance came from areas classed as semiurban.The principal motive given for making the move to Santiago was work in 60 percent of the cases. Education was the second most commonly cited principal motive, given by 10 percent. Among those coming from rural and semiurban origins, an even greater proportion claimed work to be the principal motive, while those coming from urban settings were more inclined to report education.The spatial distribution of migrants within the territory of Greater Santiago was studied in four sectors, each with different socioeconomic characteristics. The present distribution, as well as the distribution of first places of residence, indicates that the distribution was more or less proportionate among the sectors and follows the expansion of the metropolitan area. However, a high concentration of migrant women was found in the middle- and upper-class residential sectors. This is probably due to the existence of housemaids in those sectors.Migrants were found to be living in poorer housing than non-migrants-especially for families whose heads were recent migrants(from 1952 to 1962). Among the migrants who had arrived within the last ten years, 30 percent lived in dwellings that lacked the basic services, such as running water, electricity, or sewer. Migrants who had arrived more than ten years before the survey tended to live in houses lacking these facilities only with about the same frequency as the non-migrants-23 percent.The educational attainment of migrants was lower than that of natives. This differential was especially great among women.The recent migrants have a greater rate of labor-force participation than the other groups. Among males, the rate for migrants was 84 percent and for natives 78 percent. The differential is even greater in the group 15-29 years of age, where the rates were 73 percent for migrants and 61 percent for natives. A similar differential was found for women.An income differential unfavorable toward migrants was found for both male and female workers. Among male workers there were no major occupational differences between migrants and non-migrants; among both migrants and natives two-thirds of the labor-force participants were classified as laborers. Among women there was a large differential; 80 percent of female migrants were laborers as contrasted with 56 percent for natives.It is interesting to mention that the proportion of manual workers, in the group "personal services," is higher among migrants than among natives. And, at the same time, the proportion of non-manual workers, in the group of "professionals and techniques," is higher among migrants than among natives.Finally, fertility of the native married women, whose husbands were present, is high. The average number of living children of women from 20 to 49 years old was 3.38 for native women and 3.19 for migrant women.     

流动人口在城市劳动力市场中的地位:三群体研究

关于流动人口在城市劳动力市场中的地位问题,过去已有大量文献,但研究重点是农民工。这里把外来市民纳入观察视野,利用2008年"迁移和流动劳动力与中国大城市发展"调查数据,分析工资收入和社会保险参与的影响因素。主要研究发现:在工资收入上,不同户籍身份劳动者之间没有净差异;在养老保险和工伤保险参与上,本市居民、外来市民和农民工参与的可能性依次递减。这意味着,工资收入已经基本上由劳动力市场决定,而社会保险参与依然与户籍身份有关。不过,这种关联方式已经从过去的城乡户籍身份歧视转向本地/非本地权益差异。     

地区发展、经济机会、收入回报与省际人口流动

利用最新的第六次全国人口普查数据,本文考察了省际人口流动的空间模式,发现省际人口流动呈现明显的空间聚集态势.并进一步分析地区差异对省际人口流动的影响,结果表明：作为流出地,一个地区的经济发展水平对于人口流出具有显著的阻力效应,但经济机会的多寡和经济回报的高低并无显著的影响;作为流入地,一个地区的经济发展水平对于吸引人口流入并不具有显著的影响,其“拉力”主要表现为经济机会的多寡和经济回报的高低.因地区发展不平衡短期内难以改变、经济开放性会继续增强、收入地区分化仍将存在,加上更加自由的流动环境和不断改善的交通和通讯条件,省级人口流动在局部地区集中的趋势将会进一步被强化.     

Rural out-migration and smallholder agriculture in the southern Ecuadorian Andes

This study investigates the consequences of out-migration and migrant remittances for smallholder agriculture in a rural and environmentally marginal study area in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. Migration and remittances have the potential for transformative impacts on agriculture in origin areas of migration due to consequent declines in labor availability and increases in income, but previous studies have primarily found mixed and weak effects. This study provides additional insight by considering the gender and destination of migrants, key factors given gender norms influencing participation in agriculture, and the large gap in remittances sent by internal and international migrants. Building on recent methodological innovations, the study uses original household survey data and multivariate statistical models to examine the consequences of migration and remittances for multiple agricultural outcomes, including maize production, agrodiversity, female participation in agriculture, and the use of land, labor, and chemical inputs. Consistent with previous studies, the results indicate that migration and remittances have mixed and countervailing effects on smallholder agriculture. Specifically, out-migration has lost-labor effects that differ between men and women, and international remittances have investment-promotion effects that result in increased maize production. Together, the results highlight the resilience of smallholder agriculture in the face of dramatic demographic change.     

The politics of leisure and labor mobilities: discourses of tourism and transnational migration in Central Java,Indonesia

This article presents narratives and tropes of transnational tourism from a less considered perspective: rural migrant-origin villagers of Central Java. Drawing from ethnographic fieldwork conducted in Cilacap and Yogyakarta, I analyze how and why some former temporary labor migrants depict their typically harsh experiences in terms of tourism and leisure. Addressing the tendency in current research to approach labor migration and tourism as mutually exclusive or unrelated class categories and experiences, I consider the ways in which former migrants and non-migrant villagers evaluate or identify labor migration in terms of gender, class, religious, and ethno-national subjectivities associated with ‘tourist’ and/or ‘migrant’ categories. Popular and commercial imaginations of leisure travel and tourism importantly shape the subjectivities and positionalities of precarious labor migrants. Foregrounding the relations between tourism and labor migration reveals the multi-scalar ways in which associated discourses and infrastructures of both mutually shape and constitute global socio-economic inequalities.     

The differential migration of population in China: the analysis on sample survey data on urban population migration in 74 towns]

The paper analyzed data from a migration survey in 74 Chinese cities and towns in 1986. Several characteristics of the migrant population were found from the data analysis. The biggest proportion of migrants was in 20-24 age group. This age group sent 26.1% of the migrants to metro-cities, 27.6% to large cities, 25.1% to median sized cities, 22.4% to small cities, and 22.2% to towns. Migrants in the 15-29 age groups accounted for 50% of the migrants to different-sized cities and towns. Female migration is 4.2-15.4% lower than male. The proportion migrating because of marriage ranged between 84/7-92.5% to different-sized cities for females, which is much higher than for males. The level of education in the migrant population is higher than in the general population, as educational qualifications are important for job opportunities. Those with middle school and above education, make up the bulk of the migrants, and 30-40% of the migrant population to big cities increased their educational level after migrating. The currently and never married comprise, the majority of the migrant population, while the number of widowed and divorced is minimal (2 and 0.4%, respectively). Most of the widowed were 60 years old and migrated for subsistence to cities where their children lived. Among the unmarried migrants, female make up 1/3. Whereas among the married, there are more females than males.     

Elderly parent health and the migration decisions of adult children: Evidence from rural China

Recent research has shown that participation in migrant labor markets has led to substantial increases in income for families in rural China. This article addresses the question of how participation is affected by elderly parent health. We find that younger adults are less likely to work as migrants when a parent is ill. Poor health of an elderly parent has less impact on the probability of employment as a migrant when an adult child has siblings who may be available to provide care. We also highlight the potential importance of including information on nonresident family members when studying how parent illness and elder care requirements influence the labor supply decisions of adult children.     

城镇化进程中的人口流动与城镇新增贫困人口问题分析

在城镇化的过程中,农村人口净流向城镇。这一方面推动城镇和农村的发展,另一方面带来城镇贫困人口的增加。由农村流入城镇的人口其贫困发生率大致在3%以上。为预防和保障人口流动中的城镇新增贫困人口,应该采取措施分类引导人口的城镇化,建立和完善进入城镇农民的社会保障体系,积极发展城镇服务业等第三产业,避免过度的城市化带来城镇贫困问题的扩大。     

Analysis on Factors Affecting Decision-making of Migrant Population in Large Cities of China

In this paper, based on survey data of four cities,migrant population in 2008, we use multi-level Logit model to analyze the factors of individual and areas of destination which have impact on migration behavior of migrant population in large cities.We find that there are large changes in the behavior of migrants:Firstly,the rise in the proportion of migrant citizens has led to the effects of gender, marital status and household type and other factors on the probability of migration are not significant,and the migration is appearing to base on the family unit;Secondly,due to the discrimination against migrants in employment and wage income, and the upgrade of industrial structure,the attractiveness of the increasing jobs to the migrant population has declined, and migrants,expected income is detaching from the income level of urban residents;Thirdly,the growth of urban ladors,average wage has extrusion effect on the employment of the migrant labors in the informal sector, which reduces the probability of potential migrant population.