金融扭曲、创新抑制及其对出口复杂度的影响

提升出口复杂度是科技体制改革的重要目标,然而少有文献关注到金融扭曲和创新抑制对中国各地区出口复杂度的影响.本文借助金融扭曲指数与中国高技术产业省级层面数据,实证考察金融扭曲、创新抑制及其相互作用如何影响了出口复杂度.研究发现,金融扭曲和创新抑制对出口复杂度有显著的抑制作用.金融扭曲加剧了创新抑制对出口复杂度的侵蚀效应,并且金融扭曲跨越特定临界值,创新抑制的这种影响更为凸显.在较低外向度、较小产值规模以及较低技术密集度的高技术企业中,金融扭曲对出口复杂度的抑制效应尤为强烈.扭曲收益、研发抑制和技术锁定是金融扭曲阻碍出口复杂度提升的重要作用渠道.系列稳健性检验证实了上述结论的可靠性.本文为深化金融和科技体制改革,重塑中国产业国际竞争优势提供了全新的研究视角与决策参考.     

Local Spatial and Temporal Factors Influencing Population and Societal Vulnerability to Natural Disasters

The identification of societal vulnerable counties and regions and the factors contributing to social vulnerability are crucial for effective disaster risk management. Significant advances have been made in the study of social vulnerability over the past two decades, but we still know little regarding China's societal vulnerability profiles, especially at the county level. This study investigates the county‐level spatial and temporal patterns in social vulnerability in China from 1980 to 2010. Based on China's four most recent population censuses of 2,361 counties and their corresponding socioeconomic data, a social vulnerability index for each county was created using factor analysis. Exploratory spatial data analysis, including global and local autocorrelations, was applied to reveal the spatial patterns of county‐level social vulnerability. The results demonstrate that the dynamic characteristics of China's county‐level social vulnerability are notably distinct, and the dominant contributors to societal vulnerability for all of the years studied were rural character, development (urbanization), and economic status. The spatial clustering patterns of social vulnerability to natural disasters in China exhibited a gathering–scattering–gathering pattern over time. Further investigations indicate that many counties in the eastern coastal area of China are experiencing a detectable increase in social vulnerability, whereas the societal vulnerability of many counties in the western and northern areas of China has significantly decreased over the past three decades. These findings will provide policymakers with a sound scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation decisions.     

China's Railway Transportation Safety Regulation System Based on Evolutionary Game Theory and System Dynamics

China's railways were restructured in 2013. The number of regulatory practitioners has decreased significantly, making real-time regulation more difficult. Regulatory transfers from inside to outside the railway industry increases information risks. A more reasonable regulation mechanism is needed. The article considers introducing a public supervision mechanism into the railway transportation safety regulation system, which includes two regulators and one regulatee. As the government regulator, the State Railway Administration (SRA) regulates the safety of China Railway Corporation (CR) and encourages the public to act as supervisors to expose the CR's unsafe production information. To analyze the risks and effectiveness of the system, a multiplayer evolutionary game and system dynamics-based model for railway transportation safety regulation is established. The decision processes of players under different conditions are simulated. The results show that improving the public supervision ratio is conducive to improve the CR's safe production ratio. However, there is no evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) in the system. Strategies and evolutionary processes have large fluctuations, which represent high risk. Excessive penalty and reward coefficients can aggravate the amplitude and frequency of fluctuations, causing uncertainty in regulation and making it more difficult to control the actual problems. A dynamic reward and punishment mechanism is proposed to control these fluctuations. The system finally achieves an ESS that results in the lowest regulation investment for the SRA, a safe production ratio for the CR of 95%, and a public supervision ratio of 95.2%. Introducing public supervision and dynamic reward and punishment mechanisms help to stabilize and improve the CR's safe production ratio and to decrease the SRA's regulatory investment.     

Perceptions of the effectiveness of training and development of ‘grey-collar’ workers in the People's Republic of China

An important human resource development (HRD) implication of the People's Republic of China's (PRC) rapidly expanding economy has been the emergence of a critical shortage of grey-collar workers (GCW). Although ‘grey-collar’ has been commonly used in the West to describe an aging population within the workforce, in China it refers to people who are neither white nor blue collar workers but technicians. The shortage of GCW constrains the PRC's economic and developmental sustainability, and has been recognized in central and provincial government initiatives to increase training and development of employees within these fields. While acknowledged as a policy and organizational problem, there has been no research investigating what organizations are doing to develop these employees. Drawing upon a survey of 310 semi-skilled and skilled employees in Beijing, our findings suggest that while the surveyed organizations are investing heavily in both on- and off-the-job training, employees' perceived value of such differs markedly according to age and position. The research has important implications for China's HRD strategy in suggesting links between training and other human resource management (HRM) functions are yet to be evidenced.     

经济政策不确定性与风险承担:基于风险投资的证据

将经济政策不确定性引入风险投资的决策模型,从理论上证明经济政策不确定性既直接降低风险承担,也负向影响风险投资退出绩效间接降低风险承担.利用1996年~2016年中国经济政策不确定性与风险投资的匹配数据,实证结果支持理论预期.研究发现,经济政策不确定性较高时,风险承担显著更低,表现为风险投资对早期阶段企业和高科技企业的投资比例下降.退出绩效在经济政策不确定性与风险承担之间具有中介作用.经济政策不确定性较高时,风险投资通过IPO或者并购成功退出的交易数目更少、退出期限更长、退出收益更低,因而降低风险承担研究表明,为引导风险投资支持早期高科技企业,除通过财政、税收等政策扶 持奖励风险投资外,政府有必要维持相关政策的稳定性和延续性.     

生产性财政支出、经济增长与社会福利最大化

从理论与实证两个方面研究生产性财政支出对经济增长与社会福利的促进作用这一财政领域十分关注的问题.理论研究中,通过构建包含政府财政消费性支出和生产性支出的内生增长模型,推导了经济增长和社会福利最大化目标下各自最优的生产性财政支出结构,并分析了政府生产性财政支出在两目标下最优支出结构的差异及原因.实证研究发现,2004年～2012年间,中国的东、中、西三大经济带政府生产性支出在社会福利目标下的最优占比普遍低于经济增长目标;而在2004年～2008年间,政府实际的生产性财政支出占比还未达到两目标下的最优占比值,政府的生产性财政支出还有进一步提升的空间;但在2009年～2012年间,政府实际的生产性财政支出占比已接近甚至超过了两目标下的最优占比值,继续增加生产性财政支出将对经济增长与社会福利的提升都产生抑制作用,尤其在东部地区、中部地区更为明显.因此,在中国经济发展进入"新常态"时期,政府更需审时度势、通过适时优化财政支出以促进经济增长与社会福利的最大化.     

Generational Differences in Work Values: A Review of Theory and Evidence

This paper presents a critical review of the theoretical basis and empirical evidence for the popular practitioner idea that there are generational differences in work values. The concept of generations has a strong basis in sociological theory, but the academic empirical evidence for generational differences in work values is, at best, mixed. Many studies are unable to find the predicted differences in work values, and those that do often fail to distinguish between ‘generation’ and ‘age’ as possible drivers of such observed differences. In addition, the empirical literature is fraught with methodological limitations through the use of cross‐sectional research designs in most studies, confusion about the definition of a generation as opposed to a cohort, and a lack of consideration for differences in national context, gender and ethnicity. Given the multitude of problems inherent in the evidence on generational differences in work values, it is not clear what value the notion of generations has for practitioners, and this may suggest that the concept be ignored. Ultimately, it may not matter to practitioners whether differences in the values of different birth cohorts reflect true generational effects, provided one can reliably demonstrate that these differences do exist. However, at present this is not the case, and therefore significant research is required first to disentangle cohort and generational effects from those caused by age or period. The suggestion that different groups of employees have different values and preferences, based on both age and other factors such as gender, remains a useful idea for managers; but a convincing case for consideration of generation as an additional distinguishing factor has yet to be made.     

智能创新生产力理论与中国经济发展深层思考

提出智能创新生产力概念及其理论模型,发现智能演进创新和非守恒规律及其作用原理,研究智能创新的核心生产力,即智能创新克服人的生理认知能力有限性与客观物质(能量)变化无限性之间的悖论,创造利用物质世界的无穷手段和能力,创造时间和空间,解决资源稀缺与社会需求矛盾;在此基础上发现智能创新自认知、自选择和自组织原理,破解著名的智能认知体系结构与优化代理体系结构(这是本文重要发现之一),研究智能创新的系统生产力,即智能经济相对于传统经济可以达到和实现理想的生产过程,使生产活动在开放的资源空间和动态系统中进行,虚拟智能的物理化使经济活动没有时空约束和资源稀缺约束,创新经济和社会的生产方式与组织形态.本文所提出的智能创新生产力理论模型,即智能创新的核心生产与系统生产力概念也为中国经济改革发展提出重要思考.     

适应性市场假说及其在中国资本市场的实证

金融危机近些年爆发频繁,传统市场理论如有效市场假说和行为金融面对复杂的现实金融世界未能给出合理解释.Lo提出的适应性市场假说则弥合了这两个学派的分歧,逐渐引起了学术界的重视.本文尝试从动态市场效率、时变贝塔和技术交易策略演变这三个角度对适应性市场假说能否解释我国资本市场进行实证研究.研究发现:我国股票市场效率在动态变化,无效的时段与金融危机或政策巨变等重大事件联系密切;股市风格指数贝塔随市场环境变化而改变;技术交易策略绩效随投资者适应环境变化而演变.研究结果表明,适应性市场假说相比有效市场假说和经典资本资产定价模型,能够更好地解释我国资本市场上述现象.最后对投资者如何根据市场环境变化制定适应性投资策略给出几点建议.     

碳排放权的非对称拍卖模型及其配置效率

作为我国碳交易体系的试金石,“七省市”试点运营状况如何?是学界和管理层特别关注的一个焦点问题.以碳排放权的初始配置准则为切入点,展开理论探讨与定性分析,发现:在现行的溯源免费配置准则下,试点地区的碳交易市场有明显的“聚类效应”特征,其原因是排放权的误配导致企业逆向选择所致.为了从机制设计本源上消除企业减排的逆向选择,把拍卖有偿配置准则引入碳交易市场中,构建企业减排投资回报率指标,定义排放权的社会最优配置,建立碳排放权的非对称拍卖模型,分析异质性企业在碳排放权拍卖中的投标策略及其拍卖前的减排投资决策行为,剖析企业所有权差异对其减排投资和排放权配置结果的影响,阐述政府补贴企业减排投资的政策效果,基于政府补贴政策效果提出完善我国碳交易市场的相关建议.     

CHANGES IN CHINA'S WAGE STRUCTURE

Using a national sample of Urban Household Surveys, we document several profound changes in China's wage structure during a period of rapid economic growth. Between 1992 and 2007, the average real wage increased by 202%, accompanied by a sharp rise in wage inequality. Decomposition analysis reveals 80% of this wage growth to be attributable to higher pay for basic labor, rising returns to human capital, and increases in the state‐sector wage premium. By employing an aggregate production function framework, we account for the sources of wage growth and wage inequality amid fast economic growth and transition. We find capital accumulation, skill‐biased technological change, and rural–urban migration to be the major forces behind the evolving wage structure in urban China.     

中国金融市场系统复杂性的演化机理与管理研究

已有的实证结果表明中国金融市场这一复杂系统在发展过程中表现出相关性、非线性和适应性.本文以货币、证券及外汇三个主要子市场及构成的整体金融市场为对象,探究其在结构、作用和功能方面的演化机理与管理问题.具体提出了金融市场复杂性特征与演化机理间的表征关系,对各演化机理建立了模型框架,并依此应用分析股票市场中的泡沫现象.其中,针对相关性提出三体"束缚"模型,以描述各子市场间的复杂关系;针对非线性提出基于朗之万方程的动力学模型,以划分内生演进及外生随机两类非线性作用;针对适应性提出动态反馈模式,以反映不同非线性作用下金融市场演化的路径及动态适应的能力.进而结合宏观市场的时空演变结构,从金融系统的环境、组成、关联、演化、稳定、风险各方面构建起应对复杂性的宏观管理框架.     

University Quality and Labour Market Outcomes in Italy

Abstract. This paper uses proxies for university quality derived from Performance Indicators to evaluate the impact of university quality on the early labour market outcome of a cohort of recent Italian graduates. Institutional research quality is found to have a negative effect on the probability that both male and female graduates will be overeducated. Additionally, research inputs are positively related to men's wages. In contrast, teaching quality does not appear to enhance students’ economic success.     

社会保险与家庭金融风险资产投资

社会保险是否影响家庭在金融风险资产中的投资决策呢?本文使用两期家庭最优决策模型得到的理论分析结果表明,社会保险不仅能够提高家庭在风险资产中的投资广度和深度,而且对于不确定性更大、风险承受更强家庭的影响更为显著.基于省级层面得到的宏观实证检验结果和基于2011年家庭金融调查数据得到家庭层面的微观实证检验结果都支持了上述理论结论.本文的发现对于协调社会保险发展和建立多层级金融市场具有很强的政策意义.     

IPO 募资双重管制与资源配置——基于自然实验的经验证据

本文探讨我国首发市场中针对募集资金的两种管制政策的交互效应对资源配置的影响.研究结果发现,募资用途和募资额度管制的交互作用会导致募资不足,从而加大公司上市后融资约束的程度,进而引起投资不足. 2009年放开募资额度管制后,公司的融资约束得到缓解,但持有过量的超募资金又会引发过度投资.进一步研究发现,企业持有的超募资金与其长期绩效呈倒U型关系.本文的研究结论对目前处于酝酿中的IPO注册制的相关政策制定和制度设计具有参考意义.     

An expanded decomposition of the Luenberger productivity indicator with an application to the Chinese healthcare sector

The objective of this research is to combine productivity analysis at the “firm-level” and the “industry-level” so that a novel, fuller decomposition of the sources of productivity change can be undertaken. Productivity change is decomposed into technological progress, technical, mix, and scale efficiency effects. Specifically, our decomposition allows us to capture changes in productivity due to the reallocation of inputs or outputs across productive units. In practice, such reallocation might take place across plants operated by the same firm, across regions within a country, or via mergers and acquisitions. The new decomposition of the aggregate Luenberger productivity indicator is illustrated using data at both the provincial and regional levels for China's healthcare sector over the period 2009–2014. Our results indicate that the growth of the aggregate Luenberger productivity indicator varied across both time and regions. We find that China's regional productivity growth in healthcare was primarily driven by technological progress, while the contributions of the other components of productivity change were smaller and more varied across regions.     

The contribution of outward direct investment to productivity changes within China, 1991–2007

There has been a marked growth in recent years in outward direct investment (ODI) by developing countries, and in particular, by China. Previous studies have examined the impact on developing countries productivity of foreign direct investment (FDI) from developed countries. This paper looks at the effects of China's outward direct investment on growth in its own productivity, and at two specific reasons for this growth: technology sourcing and improvements in efficiency. These are examined using data from China's ODI in eight developed countries during the period 1991 to 2007. It appears that Chinese outward direct investment has had beneficial spill-over effects in improving total factor productivity growth over the period of the study, and that gains in efficiency have been the chief reason for this. Our vector auto regression (VAR) decomposition analysis also suggests that domestic R&D capital stocks are the most important source of productivity growth with greater contribution to technological progress. China is likely to continue to expand its ODI and it will be interesting to see whether the productivity gains continue at the same rate, and whether other developing countries also increase their ODI and reap the same benefits.     

Social movement spillover: Barriers to board gender diversity posed by contemporary governance reform

Managerial oversight is strengthened and firms' strategic performance improved when boards are gender-diverse. Yet the rate of women's appointment to corporate boards is decelerating. This study proposes an explanation for the unexpected attenuation rooted in social movement dynamics, particularly cross-movement influences originating from the contemporary governance reform movement. Seeking to alleviate managerialist tendencies, the governance reform movement has compelled major changes to board structure, composition, and activity, as well as the broader logic surrounding corporate boards. By definition, social movements' cognitive and structural advances manifest “spillover” effects – unintentional impacts affecting the opportunity structure, and ultimately progress, of neighboring campaigns. Drawing on social movement theory, a conceptual model is outlined explicating the mechanisms by which governance reform's broad enactments have incidentally impeded board gender diversity's advance. Theoretically-grounded strategies for reversing those effects are also outlined and the study closes with a discussion of implications for research, practice, and policy.     

A Stock-Flow Model to Analyse and Forecast Labour Market Variables

ABSTRACT: In confronting problems of employment and unemployment, students of the labour market, and economists in general have focused mainly on the determination of the level of such variables. Much less attention has been paid to such questions as: how many persons have entered the area of employment and the labour force in various time periods, and how many have exited; their sex and age distribution; and the determinants of the level and structure of flows amongst the various labour market conditions. Yet it appears superfluous to underscore the relevance of such questions. To illustrate, suffice it to recall that in Italy, the present level of employment is essentially the same today as it was in 1961‘; but this has not prevented whole generations of young people from 'stably’entering the employment area, albeit with varying degrees of difficulty in different periods. As for the numerous statistical surveys of labour market flows in a range of countries, and as for the works of job search theorists², it should be observed that such surveys and analyses essentially concern conjunctural phenomena. Consequently, these authors have paid no attention to the distinction between short-run turnover and generational turnover, or to the extremely singular characteristics of the statistical data on flows. An attempt to construct labour market models that present an integrated version of the 'structural’aspects of the market in terms of stock and flows is therefore lacking. The present study sets forth various objectives and is divided into two parts. In the first, an analysis of several controversial terminological aspects of the concepts of stock and flow is presented, and an attempt is made to point out those theoretical structures which have been responsible for the long-prevailing neglect of the labour market flows, particularly long-run flows. Then the problem of defining the concepts of short-run and generational turnover will be confronted in light of an analysis of the statistical methods used in the surveys; finally, a methodology for measuring generational flows is proposed. In the second part of the paper a model based on generational flows, as previously defined, will be presented together with a computational procedure capable to produce long run estimates of alternative scenarios of labour demand and supply and of the structure of employment by sex and age. A brief summary of some of the empirical results obtained applying our model and forecasting procedure to the Italian labour market will also be discussed in the final part of the paper.     

China: Management in time of change

The West's fascination with China, and particularly with recent economic and social developments in the People's Republic, remains intense. Some of the most fascinating changes are taking place in the way managers are seizing their new-found autonomy. This article examines the position as it was identified during a study visit in the summer of 1987.¹