Applications of a probability inequality to ranking and selection and other related problems

A probability inequality of conditionally independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables obtained recently by the author is applied to ranking and selection problems. It is shown that under both the indifference-zone and the subset formulations, the probability of a correct selection (PCS) is a cumulative probability of conditionally i.i.d, random variables. Therefore bounds on both the PCS and the sample size required can be obtained from that probability inequality. Applications of that inequality to other multiple decision problems are also considered. It is illustrated that general results concerning conditionally i.i.d. random variables are applicable to many problems in multiple decision theory.     

Probability inequalities for continuous unimodal random variables with finite support

A paramecer-free Bernstein-type upper bound is derived for the probability that the sum S of n i.i.d, unimodal random variables with finite support, X₁ ,X₂,…,X_n, exceeds its mean E(S) by the positive value nt. The bound for P{S - nμ ≥ nt} depends on the range of the summands, the sample size n, the positive number t, and the type of unimodality assumed for X_i. A two-sided Gauss-type probability inequality for sums of strongly unimodal random variables is also given. The new bounds are contrasted to Hoeffding's inequality for bounded random variables and to the Bienayme-Chebyshev inequality. Finally, the new inequalities are applied to a classic probability inequality example first published by Savage (1961).     

Sharp Bounds on a Class of Copulas with known Values at Several Points

We derive best-possible bounds on the class of copulas with known values at several points, under the assumption that the points are either in “increasing order” or in “decreasing order”. These bounds may be used to establish best-possible bounds on Kendall's τ and Spearman's ρ, for such copulas. An important special case is when the values of a copula are known at several diagonal points. We also use our results to establish best-possible bounds on the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with known marginal distributions when the values of the joint distribution function are known at several points.     

Modified Normal-based Approximation to the Percentiles of Linear Combination of Independent Random Variables with Applications

A modified normal-based approximation for calculating the percentiles of a linear combination of independent random variables is proposed. This approximation is applicable in situations where expectations and percentiles of the individual random variables can be readily obtained. The merits of the approximation are evaluated for the chi-square and beta distributions using Monte Carlo simulation. An approximation to the percentiles of the ratio of two independent random variables is also given. Solutions based on the approximations are given for some classical problems such as interval estimation of the normal coefficient of variation, survival probability, the difference between or the ratio of two binomial proportions, and for some other problems. Furthermore, approximation to the percentiles of a doubly noncentral F distribution is also given. For all the problems considered, the approximation provides simple satisfactory solutions. Two examples are given to show applications of the approximation.     

Irreconcilability of P-value and Bayesian measure in two-sided hypothesis: Pareto distribution with the presence of nuisance parameter

Abstract

This article is concerned with the comparison of Bayesian and classical testing of a point null hypothesis for the Pareto distribution when there is a nuisance parameter. In the first stage, using a fixed prior distribution, the posterior probability is obtained and compared with the P-value. In the second case, lower bounds of the posterior probability of H₀, under a reasonable class of prior distributions, are compared with the P-value. It has been shown that even in the presence of nuisance parameters for the model, these two approaches can lead to different results in statistical inference.     

Some novel results on pairwise quasi-asymptotical independence with applications to risk theory

In this article we obtain some novel results on pairwise quasi-asymptotically independent (pQAI) random variables. Concretely speaking, let X₁, …, X_n be n real-valued pQAI random variables, and W₁, …, W_n be another n non negative and arbitrarily dependent random variables, but independent of X₁, …, X_n. Under some mild conditions, we prove that W₁X₁, …, W_nX_n are still pQAI as well. Our result is in a general setting whether the primary random variables X₁, …, X_n are heavy-tailed or not. Finally, a special case of above result is applied to risk theory for investigating the finite-time ruin probability for a discrete-time risk model with a wide type of dependence structure.     

The discrepancy of P-values and posterior probability: Two-sided hypothesis of variance of normal distribution with unknown mean

This article is concerned with the comparison of P-value and Bayesian measure in point null hypothesis for the variance of Normal distribution with unknown mean. First, using fixed prior for test parameter, the posterior probability is obtained and compared with the P-value when an appropriate prior is used for the mean parameter. In the second, lower bounds of the posterior probability of H₀ under a reasonable class of prior are compared with the P-value. It has been shown that even in the presence of nuisance parameters, these two approaches can lead to different results in the statistical inference.     

A Note on the Calculation of Pr{X 1 < X 2 < ··· < Xk }

Suppose that X_i are independent random variables, and that X_i has cdf F_i (x), 1 ≤ i ≤ k. Many statistical problems involve the probability Pr{X ₁ < X ₂ < ··· < X_k }. In this note a numerical method is proposed for computing this probability.     

Positive dependence of random variables with a common marginal distribution

In this paper we review some notions of positive dependence of random variables with a common univariate marginal distribution and describe the related moment and probability inequalities. We first present a comparison between i.i.d. random variables and exchangeable random variables via an application of de Finetti's theorem, then describe some useful probability inequalities via partial orderings of the strength of their positive dependence. Finally, we state a result for random variables which are not necessarily exchangeable. Special applications to the multivariate normal distribution will be discussed, and the results involve only the correlation matrix of the distribution.     

A Proposal for a New Bound for Discrete Distributions

In this work we re-examine some classical bounds for non negative integer-valued random variables by means of information theoretic or maxentropic techniques using fractional moments as constraints. The proposed new bound, no more analytically expressible in terms of moments or moment generating function (mgf), is built by mixing classical bounds and the Maximum Entropy (ME) approximant of the underlying distribution; such a new bound is able to exploit optimally all the information content provided by the sequence of given moments or by the mgf. Particular care will be devoted to obtain fractional moments from the available information given in terms of integer moments and/or moment generating function. Numerical examples show clearly that the bound improvement involving the ME approximant based on fractional moments is not trivial.     

A general algorithm for computing simultaneous prediction intervals for the (log)-location-scale family of distributions

Making predictions of future realized values of random variables based on currently available data is a frequent task in statistical applications. In some applications, the interest is to obtain a two-sided simultaneous prediction interval (SPI) to contain at least k out of m future observations with a certain confidence level based on n previous observations from the same distribution. A closely related problem is to obtain a one-sided upper (or lower) simultaneous prediction bound (SPB) to exceed (or be exceeded) by at least k out of m future observations. In this paper, we provide a general approach for computing SPIs and SPBs based on data from a particular member of the (log)-location-scale family of distributions with complete or right censored data. The proposed simulation-based procedure can provide exact coverage probability for complete and Type II censored data. For Type I censored data, our simulation results show that our procedure provides satisfactory results in small samples. We use three applications to illustrate the proposed simultaneous prediction intervals and bounds.     

Optimal Hoeffding-like inequalities under a symmetry assumption

In this paper, we prove a Hoeffding-like inequality for the survival function of a sum of symmetric independent identically distributed random variables, taking values in a segment [?b, b] of the reals. The symmetric case is relevant to the auditing practice and is an important case study for further investigations. The bounds as given by Hoeffding in 1963 cannot be improved upon unless we restrict the class of random variables, for instance, by assuming the law of the random variables to be symmetric with respect to their mean, which we may assume to be zero. The main result in this paper is an improvement of the Hoeffding bound for i.i.d. random variables which are bounded and have a (upper bound for the) variance by further assuming that they have a symmetric law.     

Deconvolution of supersmooth densities with smooth noise

The author considers the estimation of the common probability density of independent and identically distributed random variables observed with added white noise. She assumes that the unknown density belongs to some class of supersmooth functions, and that the error distribution is ordinarily smooth, meaning that its characteristic function decays polynomially asymptotically. In this context, the author evaluates the minimax rate of convergence of the pointwise risk and describes a kernel estimator having this rate. She computes upper bounds for the L₂ risk of this estimator.     

Contre-exemple au théorème de P.C. Consul sur la factorisation des distributions de Poisson généralisées

This note exhibits two independent random variables on integers, X₁ and X₂, such that neither X₁ nor X₂ has a generalized Poisson distribution, but X₁ + X₂ has. This contradicts statements made by Professor Consul in his recent book.     

SHARP BOUNDS FOR EXPECTATIONS OF kTH RECORD INCREMENTS

This paper presents sharp bounds for expectations of non‐adjacent increments of kth record statistics, measured in various scale units, for a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables with continuous cumulative distribution function. The results for kth record spacings are considered as special cases. The paper also characterizes probability distributions for which the bounds are attained.     

Bounds and approximations for pairwise comparisons of independent multinormal means

Properties and relationships of some commonly used probability bounds, along with other recently developed bounds and approximations, are evaluated for their performance with pairwise comparisons. The comparisons are of independent sample means obtained from normal random variables with a common variance. Computational methods are presented and numerical results are used to further evaluate the performance of the bounds.     

The probability generating function of empty cell variable in a randomized occupancy problem

Let M_o denote the number of empty cells when n distinguishable balls are distributed independently and at random in ra cells such that each ball stays with probability p in its cell, and falls through with probability 1-p. We find the probability generating function of M_o by solving a partial differential equation satisfied by a suitable generating function. The corresponding function for the classical case p = 1 is well-known, but obtained by different methods.     

Stein’s method and the distribution of the product of zero mean correlated normal random variables

Abstract

Over the last 80?years there has been much interest in the problem of finding an explicit formula for the probability density function of two zero mean correlated normal random variables. Motivated by this historical interest, we use a recent technique from the Stein’s method literature to obtain a simple new proof, which also serves as an exposition of a general method that may be useful in related problems.     

Confidence Bounds for Positive Ratios of Normal Random Variables

Some applications of ratios of normal random variables require both the numerator and denominator of the ratio to be positive if the ratio is to have a meaningful interpretation. In these applications, there may also be substantial likelihood that the variables will assume negative values. An example of such an application is when comparisons are made in which treatments may have either efficacious or deleterious effects on different trials. Classical theory on ratios of normal variables has focused on the distribution of the ratio and has not formally incorporated this practical consideration. When this issue has arisen, approximations have been used to address it. In this article, we provide an exact method for determining (1 ? α) confidence bounds for ratios of normal variables under the constraint that the ratio is composed of positive values and connect this theory to classical work in this area. We then illustrate several practical applications of this method.