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1.
An econometric and neoclassical analysis of the timing and spacing of births in Canada from 1950 to 1990 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper estimates a reduced form neoclassical model of Canadian fertility dynamics using an econometric technique that integrates several features not usually found in the demographic and economic literature. We find considerable support for the neoclassical model. We also find that correlated unobservables and parity stopping effects play an important role in Canadian fertility dynamics as well as other socio-demographic features of Canadian women. However, we fail to totally characterize the important drops in the fertility rate that took place for this era. Received: 2 May 1996 / Accepted: 27 March 1997 相似文献
2.
This study applies count data estimation techniques to investigate the fertility adjustment of immigrants in the destination
country. Data on completed fertility are taken from the 1996 wave of the German Socioeconomic Panel (GSOEP). While the economic
literature stresses the role of prices and incomes as determinants of fertility, the demographic literature discusses whether
assimilation or disruption effects dominate immigrants' fertility after migration. We find evidence in favor of the assimilation
model according to which immigrant fertility converges to native levels over time. In addition, we confirm the negative impact
of female human capital on fertility outcomes.
Received: 7 January 1999/Accepted: 10 August 1999 相似文献
3.
For modeling complete female fertility we propose a zero-and-two-inflated count data model, which accounts for a relative
excess of both zero and two children. As the underlying distribution of counts we use the standard Poisson distribution and
the more general Gamma count distribution. We compare our proposed model with standard count data models by using data on
complete fertilities for a sample of Swedish women. The preferred specification for Swedish fertility data is the zero-and-two
inflated Gamma count data model. The estimated “extra” probabilities of zero and two children, when modelled as individual
specific probabilities, vary substantially across individuals, with mean of 0.05 and 0.16, respectively. These extra probabilities
show that women who formed a family later in life have a higher probability of being childless, and women of our youngest
cohort have a higher probability of forming a two-child family.
Received: 7 January 1999/Accepted: 19 May 1999 相似文献
4.
This paper models household fertility decisions by using a generalized Poisson regression model. Since the fertility data
used in the paper exhibit under-dispersion, the generalized Poisson regression model has statistical advantages over both
standard Poisson and negative binomial regression models, and is suitable for analysis of count data that exhibit either over-dispersion
or under-dispersion. The model is estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. Approximate tests for the dispersion and
goodness-of-fit measures for comparing alternative models are discussed. Based on observations from the Panel Study of Income
Dynamics of 1989 interviewing year, the empirical results support the fertility hypothesis of Becker and Lewis (1973).
Received January 7, 1997 /Accepted April 3, 1997 相似文献
5.
We investigate the determinants of the remarkable increase in intra-regional migrations since the 1980's in Spain, using
a large administrative micro dataset on migrants. Conditional migration probabilities are identified by comparing the migrants'
joint distribution of characteristics to the corresponding distribution from the Spanish Labour Force Survey. The proportion
of employment in the service industry, unemployment, house prices and education, all have an important positive effect on
the individual probabilities of intra-regional migration.
Received: 16 May 1999/Accepted: 26 September 2000 相似文献
6.
This paper analyses the effects of expected earnings and local markets conditions on the behaviour of young adults with high
school diplomas. Decisions to either remain in the parental home or form a new household are modelled jointly with those of
either gaining work experience or investing in a university education. Expected lifetime earnings are found to play a crucial
role in determining the choice of studying and residing with parents. Poor labour market opportunities discourage young people
from working and induce them to study. The cost of housing greatly influences the choice of working and leaving the parental
home.
Received: 23 March 2001/Accepted: 26 November 2001
All correspondence to Gianna Claudia Giannelli. Helpful comments by two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch. 相似文献
7.
A multinomial logit model is estimated to investigate the destination of students one-year after graduating from high school.
The appropriate specification of the choice set available to high school leavers is as follows: private four-year college,
public four-year college, private two-year college, public two-year college, employed and unemployed. We test for several
possible combinations of these choices and find that these pooled models are all rejected in favour of the full model. The
transition from high school to college and to work is more complex than previous studies have recognised.
Received: 12 July 2002/Accepted: 2 November 2002
All correspondence to Jim Taylor. The authors are grateful to Steve Bradley and an anonymous referee for valuable comments
on a previous draft of this paper. We alone are responsible for the errors and omissions. Anh Nguyen is grateful to the ESRC
for providing financial support. Responsible editor: Daniel S. Hamermesh. 相似文献
8.
Nguyen-dinh H 《Journal of population economics》1997,10(3):251-271
This paper is an economics-based quantitative analysis of the determinants of individual fertility in Vietnam, measured as
the number of children ever born. In addition to the conventional linear model, two limited dependent variable models, Poisson
and ordered-logit, are estimated using data from the 1988 Vietnam Demographic and Health Survery. We find, among other things, that husbands‘ characteristics are almost as important as those of wives in determining fertility,
perhaps a reflection of the still dominant role of husbands in Vietnamese families. Both paternal and maternal education have
important impacts on fertility. Of special interest is the evidence that supports the attitudinal effect of education over the opportunity-cost effect.
Received April 22, 1996 / Accepted January 13, 1997 相似文献
9.
This paper examines employment and child-care choices of single-parent families with young children in the United States
and Canada, using a pooled data set based on recent national surveys in each country. We find that the employment and child-care
choices of Canadian families are similar to those of U.S. families. Estimates of a model of employment and child-care choices
indicate significant effects of child-care subsidies, child-care prices, and wage rates on employment and child-care choices.
Received: 1 February 2000/Accepted: 15 January 2001 相似文献
10.
In this paper, data from the 1997 Swiss Labour Force Survey are used to analyse the allocation and value of time assigned
to housework and child-care. It is shown that men's allocation of time to housework and child-care is largely invariant to
changes in socio-economic factors. Women's allocation of time to housework and child-care, on the other hand, is shown to
depend on several social, economic, and demographic factors. The value of time assigned to housework and child-care is calculated
with two market replacement cost methods and three opportunity cost methods. The results show that the value of time assigned
to housework and child-care ranges from 27% to 39% and from 5% to 8% of GDP (in 1997), respectively. The value of time assigned
to housework and child-care is also calculated for different household structures.
Received: 15 April 1999/Accepted: 5 May 2000 相似文献
11.
Ali C. Taşiran 《Journal of population economics》2002,15(4):783-796
Walker (1997) criticizes one of the conclusions in my book Tas?\iran (1995), that Heckman and Walker’s very high negative
wage rate and positive income effects on Swedish fertility are very sensitive. In this paper, I explain, first, that my results
are not only based on the series Walker mentions, but also on other series in both SFS and HUS data sets. Second, the combined
aggregate and micro wage series he criticizes is mainly derived with Heckman and Walker. Third, by discussing the points he
raises for the combination strategy, I show that his revised results are also supporting my conclusion.
Received: 7 June 1996/Accepted: 16 July 1997
I am grateful to Anders Klevmarken, Lennart Hjalmarsson, Bj?rn Gustafsson and Ann Veiderpass for their valuable suggestions
and discussions on an earlier version of this paper. Thanks also to two anonymous referees for their comments and to the responsible
editor of this journal Klaus F. Zimmermann, for his encouragement and many helpful comments. Any remaining errors are my own.
Responsible editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann. 相似文献
12.
The socioeconomic consequences of young women's childbearing: Reconciling disparate evidence 总被引:3,自引:3,他引:0
David C. Ribar 《Journal of population economics》1999,12(4):547-565
Recent studies have begun to examine rigorously the links between early childbearing and subsequent socioeconomic status. Prominent in this literature has been a set of analyses that have used sibling fixed effects models to control for omitted variables bias. These studies report that the siblings difference procedure leads to smaller estimates of the effects of teen fertility than does standard regression analysis. While it is well known that the siblings fixed effects procedure makes strong assumptions regarding the type of omitted variables and is not necessarily robust to alternative assumptions, the assumptions of the procedure have not been explicitly examined. This paper uses 1979–1992 data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to compare estimates of the income and education consequences of teenage and young adult fertility from standard regression and siblings fixed effects models with estimates from more general, alternative siblings models. Received: 19 January 1998/Accepted: 6 April 1999 相似文献
13.
Over the past decades, due to a combination of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancies, most industrialized
countries have experienced aging populations and low numbers of young populations that may pose economic problems in the future.
This paper investigates the relationship first between fertility rate and infant mortality rate and second among demographic
changes, real wages and real output in Greece over the period 1960–96. When we control for fluctuations in overall economic
activity and the labor market on the bivariate relationship between fertility and mortality rates, the evidence suggests that
Granger-causation must exist in at least one direction. The results show that in the long run a decrease in infant mortality
rates, taking into consideration economic performance and the labor market, causes a reduction in fertility rates. Also, employing
the vector error-correction models, the variance decomposition analysis and the impulse response functions, the empirical
results support the endogeneity of fertility choice to infant mortality, the labor market and the growth process.
Received: 16 May 1999/Accepted: 18 September 2000 相似文献
14.
The impact of local labour markets on investment in further education: Evidence from the England and Wales youth cohort studies 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Patricia Rice 《Journal of population economics》1999,12(2):287-312
The paper focuses on the individual's choice of activity on completion of compulsory schooling – to remain in full-time education
or to seek employment – and the factors influencing this decision. Information from the England and Wales Youth Cohort Studies,
coupled with labour market data, is used to estimate of logit model of choice and assess the role played by social and market
factors. The results show that labour market conditions play an influential role in determining outcomes, particularly in
the case of young males with weaker academic qualifications. Consistent with the time-series evidence, we find that participation
rates in further education for both males and females are positively related to the unemployment rate in the local labour
market, the effects being greater at times of economic recession when unemployment rates are rising.
Received: 5 May 1997/Accepted: 17 July 1998 相似文献
15.
Estimating intrahousehold allocation in a collective model with household production 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Thomas Aronsson Sven-Olov Daunfeldt Magnus Wikström 《Journal of population economics》2001,14(4):569-584
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the intra-family distribution of income and the individual demand for leisure and
household production from Swedish cross-sectional household data. As a basis for the analysis, we use a collective model where
each individual is characterized by his or her own utility function and divides total time between leisure, household production
and market work. For the purpose of comparison, we also estimate a version that is consistent with a more traditional model
of labor supply, the unitary model.
Received: 14 April 2000/Accepted: 12 January 2001 相似文献
16.
We study the Becker and Lewis (1973) quantity-quality model of children adding an explicit child care time constraint for
parents. Parents can take care of the children themselves or purchase day care. Our results are: (i) If there only is own
care, a quantity-quality trade-off, different from that of Becker and Lewis (1973), arises. The income effect on fertility
is positive if child quantity is a closer complement than child quality to the consumption of goods. (ii) If, instead, there
is a combination of purchased and own care, the effect of income on fertility is ambiguous, even if quantity of children is
a normal good in the standard sense. This is the Becker and Lewis (1973) result extended to a situation with a binding child
care time constraint. The conclusion is that the Becker and Lewis (1973) result holds as long as at least some child care
is purchased.
Received: 12 November 1999/Accepted: 1 September 2000 相似文献
17.
Macunovich DJ 《Journal of population economics》1998,11(1):53-111
Focusing just on the fertility aspects of the Easterlin hypothesis, this paper offers a critical assessment – rather than
just a selective citation – of the extensive fertility literature generated by Easterlin, and a complete inventory of data
and methodologies in seventy-six published analyses. With an equal number of micro- and macro-level analyses using North American
data (twenty-two), the „track record” of the hypothesis is the same in both venues, with fifteen providing significant support
in each case. The literature suggests unequivocal support for the relativity of the income concept in fertility, but is less
clear regarding the source(s) of differences in material aspirations, and suggests that the observed relationship between
fertility and cohort size has varied across countries and time periods due to the effects of additional factors not included
in most models.
Received: 16 July 1996 / Accepted: 26 September 1997 相似文献
18.
James R. Walker 《Journal of population economics》2002,15(4):773-782
This note reviews and evaluates Taşıran's (1995) claim that estimated female wage effects on Swedish fertility dynamics reported
by Heckman and Walker (1990) are not robust to the use of microwage data. The results reported here indicate that once individual
wage measures have been purged of measurement error, estimated female wage effects are not sensitive to the introduction of
microwages. The results reported by Heckman and Walker (1990) persist even with the use of microwage data.
Received: 8 March 1996/Accepted: 4 December 2001
I thank Tom MaCurdy, Eric French and two anonymous referees for useful comments. This research was supported by NICHD grants
HD-19226 and HD-28685. The usual disclaimer applies. Responsible editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann. 相似文献
19.
Continuous training in Germany 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Jörn-Steffen Pischke 《Journal of population economics》2001,14(3):523-548
Using data from the German Socio Economic Panel, I analyze the incidence, financing, and returns to workplace training in Germany for the years 1986 to 1989. Much of this training seems general, and is provided to workers by their employer at no direct cost. While workers typically report larger productivty gains from the training during work hours, such training has lower returns than training undertaken during leisure time. Workers with higher earnings growth seem more likely to participate in training. I deal with this selection problem by estimating models that allow for inidividual level heterogeneity in earnings growth rates. Received: 24 November 1997/Accepted: 27 March 2000 相似文献
20.
Adriaan S. Kalwij 《Journal of population economics》2000,13(2):221-239
The main concern of this paper is to analyze the effects of female employment status on the presence and number of children
in households in the Netherlands. For this purpose a hurdle count data model is formulated and estimated by the generalized
method of moments. The hurdle takes explicitly into account the interrelationship between female employment status and timing
of first birth. The number of children, once children are present in the household, is modeled conditional on female employment
status. The empirical results show that female employment status is a major determinant of the presence and number of children
in households: employed women schedule children later in life and have fewer children compared to nonemployed women, holding
educational attainment constant. After controlling for female employment status, the educational attainment of both the woman
and the man in the households are found to have relatively small effects on the presence and number of children.
Received: 3 November 1998/Accepted: 22 September 1999 相似文献