The crime drop in comparative perspective: the impact of the economy and imprisonment on American and European burglary rates

Influential statements on recent American crime reductions maintain that the crime drop was confined to the USA. Yet other research has revealed comparable crime decreases in Europe. We suggest that the USA and European crime declines occurred in tandem because they were both brought about by upturns in the economy. In light of US research showing crime reductions resulting from growth in imprisonment, we also examine the possibility that rising imprisonment rates reduced European crime rates. We test these hypotheses in a pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis of burglary rates in the USA and nine European nations between 1993 and 2006. The results indicate that burglary declines in the US and Europe were associated with rising consumer confidence. By contrast, imprisonment appears to be significantly related to burglary rates only after unusual policy interventions, such as Italy's 2006 clemency measure that dramatically reduced the size of its prison population. We interpret these findings as reflecting the structural similarity and economic integration of the world's developed nations and the uneven convergence in US and European punishment policies.     

Sociology of Debt: States,Credit Markets,and Indebted Citizens

Within the context of the recent financial crisis, the causes and implications of mounting levels of household indebtedness have begun to be examined from a variety of angles: Why have nations differed so drastically, historically speaking, in terms of the level of debt that their citizens carry? Why have patterns converged over the past few decades, with levels of indebtedness increasing across the board? This paper considers these questions from a sociological perspective. I first consider the role of political, institutional, economic, and cultural factors, as well as individual characteristics, in shaping the demand for and supply of credit and the degree and nature of household indebtedness in and across nations. I then attempt to explain the cross‐national convergence towards rising indebtedness over the past few decades by situating the transformation of these various demand and supply side factors under the neoliberal regime.     

Inequality,Unemployment and Crime: A Cross-National Analysis*

In order to contribute to the development of an international perspective on crime and to examine a central tenet similar to many theoretical perspectives on the etiology of crime, cross-national data on inequality, unemployment, and crime rates were analyzed. It was hypothesized that nations having a high rate of unemployment and an inequitable distribution of income would have a high crime rate. The results of the correlational analyses indicate a moderate positive relationship between the rate of unemployment and homicide rates, whereas there are small negative relationships between unemployment rates and (1) the rates of property crime, and (2) the total crime rates. The variable of inequality is strongly related to the three indices of crime and the directions of the relationships are consistent with those involving unemployment rates. The results were further investigated to examine the possibility that the observed relationships were due to the effects of industrialization. The direction of the zero-order correlations involving property crime rates and total crime rates are not changed in the partial correlations and the strength of the relationships are not consistently reduced. These results are discussed in reference to their implications for criminological theory and the development of a comparative criminology.     

The Structure of Issue Voting in Postindustrial Democracies

Issues matter for elections. The issue environment, however, varies across political campaigns as well as across countries. How does the issue environment structure the vote? Is the issue space single‐ or multidimensional? Do issues vary in terms of salience across parties or nations? This article addresses these questions using an original dataset of mass and elite policy positions covering the United States and nine other industrialized nations. Results show that while the traditional language of politics—expressed as the left/right divide—still resonates, the issue space is not single dimensional but two dimensional. Issues associated with globalization represent a crosscutting divide, which complicates the voter's decision. Further, the salience of an issue to a party varies as a function of the party's type, size, and age. This article shows how a cross‐national approach provides perspective on how voter decision making operates in different country contexts.     

WHY DO INCREASED ARREST RATES APPEAR TO REDUCE CRIME: DETERRENCE,INCAPACITATION, OR MEASUREMENT ERROR?

This paper attempts to discriminate between deterrence, incapacitation, and measurement error as explanations for the negative empirical relationship between arrest rates and crime. Measurement error cannot explain the observed patterns in the data. Incapacitation suggests that an increase in the arrest rate for one crime will reduces all crime rates; deterrence predicts that an increase in the arrest rate for one crime will lead to a rise in other crimes as criminals substitute away from the first crime. Empirically, deterrence appears to be the more important factor, particularly for property crimes. ( JEL K42)     

Convergence in Foreigners’ Rights and Citizenship Policies? A Look at Japan

Citizenship laws and immigrant rights in rich, democratic countries are widely understood to be converging. Since most accounts of convergence are based on Western examples, Japan is an important test case. I distinguish three theoretical accounts of convergence: global‐institutionalist, liberal‐democratic, and problem‐solving perspectives. I then examine trends in foreigners’ rights in Japan since World War II in three domains: entrance, rights of residents, and citizenship. I find that convergence is occurring in the expansion of rights, partially in access to the territory, but not in formal citizenship. While the liberal‐democratic perspective fails to account for trends, a combination of global‐institutionalist and problem‐solving accounts provides the most powerful analytic insight into convergence processes.     

Explaining the United States’ Penal Exceptionalism: Political,Economic, and Social Factors

In this review, I examine explanations for why the United States is a world leader in its use of imprisonment. I first outline cross‐national trends in incarceration and then evaluate the state of the literature and empirical evidence for why the United States is more punitive than other advanced industrialized nations. I argue a confluence of political, economic, and social factors distinct to the United States context are implicated in the punitive turn in the 1970s. Specifically, United States’ penal exceptionalism is the result of (1) a shift of criminal justice policy from the judicial to the legislative branch of government; (2) political responses to social and economic changes including deindustrialization and the upheaval of race relations in the 1960s; and (3) a weak welfare state. These changes stand in stark contrast to the dynamics of criminal justice policymaking among comparable nations. However, there is a need for more comparative research on the topic, as understanding the mechanism behind the stabilization or decrease of penal populations in other countries may better elucidate the reasons for America’s divergence from international trends.     

Modernization and the Demographic Transition: Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Analyses of a Revised Model

Abstract

We specify a revised model of the demographic transition which accounts for national fertility levels and changes over the past two decades. The model includes cultural, geographic, demographic and family planning program variables, in addition to a measure of national socio-economic modernization. Using crude birth rates for 117 countries, we operationalize and then apply the revised model to 1974 rates, and then test a longitudinal model of 1955–59 to 1974 change in rates. A final model for 81 less developed nations from the original set of 117 countries includes a measure of family planning program effort. Including this highly significant measure in a model of 1955–59 to 1974 change results in further evidence favoring modification of the traditional demographic transition model. Implications for the future course of fertility in underdeveloped countries are discussed.     

Partnership and Parenthood in Post‐transitional Societies: Will Specters Be Exorcised?

Abstract: The purpose of this article is to reconsider partnership and parenthood in post-transitional societies from the viewpoint of sociology. As is well known, after the end of the Baby Boom, albeit with variations in the tempo and the level, a considerable decline in fertility has occurred in industrialized countries. Furthermore, this decline has occurred in tandem with the transformation of partnership such as an increase in the number of cohabited couples. The causes and effects of this decline in fertility have hitherto been studied by social scientists such as economists and demographers. Although the family has been one of the main research interests for sociologists for a long while, the changes in partnership and fertility behavior in developed countries have not been sufficiently argued from the perspective of sociological theory on family. In this article, we will initially compare and contrast two changes in fertility patterns: the first of these is the fertility decline that occurred around the latter half of the nineteenth century; the second is the change that has been observed in industrialized countries since the second half of the 1960s. We will then discuss the difference between economic and ideational approaches in the explanation of partnership and fertility changes. Finally, we will examine the convergence and the divergence theories on family change. This article will conclude with an emphasis on the importance of the middle-range theories.     

"This is a White Country"1: The Racial Ideology of the Western Nations of the World-System

In this paper I argue that the racial ideology of the Western nations of the world-system has converged over the past twenty years. This new ideology or, as many analysts call it, the "new racism," includes: (1) the notion of cultural rather than biological difference, (2) the abstract and decontextualized use of the discourse of liberalism and individualism to rationalize racial inequality, and (3) a celebration of nationalism that at times acquires an ethnonational character. I contend that this ideological convergence reflects the histories of racial imperialism of all these countries, the fact that they have all developed real–although different–racial structures that award systemic rewards to their "White" citizens, and the significant presence of the "Other" (Black, Arab, Turk, aboriginal people, etc.) in their midst. I use the cases of Germany, France, the Netherlands, and New Zealand to illustrate my point.     

CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE AND INFLATION: A NOTE

We document increased central bank independence within the set of industrialized nations. This increased independence can account for nearly two-thirds of the improved inflation performance of these nations over the past two decades. ( JEL E42, E58)     

The civic elite: A network perspective on elite consolidation among community-based organizations, 1998–2016

Is an elite consolidating among the leadership of community-based organizations (CBOs) in U.S. cities? Ethnographers identify a privatized turn in urban governance, with some nonprofit civic leaders becoming a cohesive group with enormous influence in local affairs. However, while researchers propose elite consolidation has occurred and created a more hierarchical, technocratic, and unipolar civic field, these structural changes have not been directly assessed. In this paper, I reintroduce an interorganizational network perspective to elite consolidation and evaluate how interlocking directorates among CBOs in Cleveland, OH, and Austin, TX constitute relationships among civic leaders over twenty years. Results indicate boards of directors are constituting a new civic elite, and that hierarchical interlock tendencies doubled in both cities between 1998 and 2016. The core of the networks appear to be organizations traditionally important in urban governance, though, and community analysis reveals power sharing among elite groups in the cities rather than singular dominant communities, indicating as situation of "elitist pluralism." These findings offer a new perspective on the problem of elite consolidation in civil society, and offer a benchmark for future analysis of civic elites.     

Transparency and Unmasking Issues in Ethnographic Crime Research: Methodological Considerations

A transparency movement has begun urging researchers to publicize their data in order to ease replication and accountability. Some ethnographers have also begun arguing that researchers should unmask, or fully disclose, field sites and participant identities in order to replicate studies, verify accounts, and monitor social phenomena over time. However, for ethnographers studying violence and crime, full transparency or unmasking can get an ethnographer harmed. Thus, I broaden the unmasking/masking discussion by arguing for partial disclosures in dangerous research. To do so, I provide examples from my previous drug market ethnography and my ongoing gang research. I then propose safer ways to disclose field sites and participants, mainly through the following: semibiographical disclosure, where the ethnographer strategically omits some data in otherwise rich biographical portraits; through partial spatial disclosures, where the ethnographer reveals the field site's general area; and through invitational disclosure, where the ethnographer invites outsiders to meet participants in the field.     

Recent Trends in Metropolitan-Nonmetropolitan Fertility1

Abstract Although decline and convergence in metropolitan (metro) and nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) fertility levels are longterm trends, a detailed analysis of the period since 1970 shows a pattern of exceptions and conditions which underscore the need for giving continued attention to differences by residence. There was a divergence of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan fertility rates in the 1970–1980 decade, but the renewed convergence since 1980 has made an important contribution to the turnaround reversal of metropolitan-nonmetropolitan population change. This recent rate convergence is not a simple coming together of the age-specific rates, but the balancing of changes in opposite directions for younger and older women. Metro-nonmetro differences widened in favor of nonmetro for women 20–24 years of age and in favor of metro for women over 30 years of age. The apparent catching up of postponed first and second births is found primarily among metropolitan women over 30 years of age.     

Women in elite positions: Insiders or outsiders?

Formal institutional locations and informal participation in elite networks are examined for women and men occupying principal decision-making positions in powerful institutions in three advanced societies: the United States, West Germany, and Australia. In all three countries, the few women are concentrated in a small number of elite positions, especially those set aside for women. Social backgrounds vary, with women coming from somewhat higher status and class origins than their male counterparts. Further, network analyses reveal that men are more integrated than women in informal elite networks in all three nations. The results suggest that women in formal positions of power remain outsiders on the inside.     

Conflict management in the modern world-system

What is the relationship between the status of nation-states in the modern world-system and their strategies for conflict management? Using Wallerstein's world-systems theory, Kick's empirical specifications of core, semiperiphery, and periphery, and Black's theory of conflict management, I examine the use of self-help, avoidance, negotiation, and third-party settlement by nation-states. These possible tactics are variously used as forms of social control from below, social control from above, and social control between equals. I argue that the status of nations within the world-system is correlated with the primary mode of conflict management they use at a given time. I speculate that the use of a particular strategy may also subsequently contribute to changes in nations' status.     

Ideological Contention: Antonio Gramsci and the Connection Between Race and Social Movement Mobilization in Early Twentieth-Century Italy

This article introduces the concept “ideological contention” into the study of social movements and demonstrates the concept through an analysis of the relationship between race and mobilization in modern national contexts. The analysis links the emergence of scientific racism to the period of large nation state consolidation and the development of liberal political ideologies across Western nations. The paper demonstrates that movement struggles within the context of a national ideological framework impact the organization, process of ideological elaboration, and strategic choices a movement makes. I explore how ideology organizes, coordinates, and mobilizes movement members in political processes through a study of Sardinian worker, peasant, and communist struggles in the context of a modernized and industrialized Italy (1917–1920). I argue that reevaluating the theoretical and empirical relationship between ideology and the frame perspective could strengthen analyses of social movement struggles.     

Domestic violence laws and suicide in Mexico

In the mid-1990s Mexican states began adopting reforms that for the first time criminalized domestic violence. Two separate policies were also adopted which allowed domestic violence to be grounds for divorce and established prevention and assistance programs for victims of domestic violence. I exploit the variation in time and geography to estimate the impact of these three policies on female suicide rates using a difference-in-difference methodology. The results indicate that states that criminalized domestic violence exhibited a 22–34% decrease in suicide rates compared to non-adopting states, but there is no robust evidence that the other two policies had any impact. A battery of tests provides support for the robustness of these findings and indicates that most of the effects are concentrated among married women. Analysis of a cross-sectional, nationally representative survey covering violence against women in Mexico suggests reduction in sexual and physical violence as a possible mechanism behind the reduction in female suicide rates. These findings are consistent with an intra-household bargaining model with asymmetric information and costly conflict which predicts that policies that reduce conflict within the household can reduce female suicides. The results highlight the importance of developing and implementing policies that facilitate reporting and providing access to legal institutions for victims of domestic violence, which can in turn improve a victim’s wellbeing.

     

Agricultural Exports and the Environment: A Cross‐National Study of Fertilizer and Pesticide Consumption*

Abstract The mass consumption of agrochemicals, including manufactured fertilizers and pesticides, by industrialized agricultural systems worldwide threatens human health and the health of ecosystems. The production of these agricultural inputs is a highly energy‐ and capital‐intensive process, and their application contributes to a variety of direct and indirect impacts on the environment. This study is an analysis of the relationships between international trade in agricultural products and the consumption of these synthetic compounds. Using OLS regression models and data from World Bank and UNFAO, we analyze cross‐national data to examine the relationship between structural factors, such as economic development and export intensity, and both fertilizer and pesticide consumption. The findings are considered from the opposing theoretical perspectives of international political economy (IPE) and neo‐liberal modernization (NLM). The results generally support the claims of IPE and contradict those of NLM, indicating that increases in exports of agricultural products contribute to increases in fertilizer and pesticide consumption within nations. These results call into question policies that promote increased trade liberalization in agricultural products.     

Economic convergence and life satisfaction in the European Union

The issue of convergence or divergence in the European Union (EU) is usually viewed from a macroeconomic perspective, using indicators such as the income per head, the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. Little attention has been paid to the possibility of an associated convergence in ‘well-being’ across countries. Since recent literature has shown that subjective well-being (life satisfaction, ‘happiness’) is significantly affected by macroeconomic variables, it is natural to ask not only whether or not subjective well-being converges, but also, whether, how and to what extent this process is linked to macroeconomic convergence. In this paper we use self-rated life satisfaction elicited in large scale surveys to address these questions. We find evidence of convergence of life satisfaction across the member states of the EU, which can be attributed to a considerable extent to the convergence in macroeconomic conditions. Among the various macroeconomic indicators, the convergence in inflation rates has played a major role for the convergence in life satisfaction.