Privatization of Social Security in the United Kingdom warning or exemplar?

This study draws lessons for the debate about the proposed partial privatization of Social Security in the United States based on evidence from the United Kingdom. The British case suggests that privatization may lead to a reduction in the pension burden on the national budget if combined with substantial cuts in benefits. Such reforms may have positive effects on the economy, but any such benefits would come at a price that would include much higher administrative costs, exposure to stock market fluctuations, increased inequality, and potentially lower pension benefits for many low-wage workers, particularly women.     

Employee benefits, retirement patterns, and implications for increased work life

This Issue Brief examines why policymakers are concerned about the trend toward early retirement and how it relates to Social Security, Medicare, and employee health and retirement benefits. It reviews the rationale for the effects of economic incentives on early retirement decisions and includes a summary of empirical literature on the retirement process. It presents data on how employee benefits influence workers' expected retirement patterns. Finally, it examines the implications of public policies to reverse early-retirement trends and raise the eligibility age for Social Security and Medicare. An employee Benefit Research Institute/Gallup survey indicates that there is a direct link between a worker's decision to retire early and the availability of retiree health benefits. In 1993, 61 percent of workers reported that they would not retire before becoming eligible for Medicare if their employer did not provide retiree health benefits. Participation in a pension plan can be an important determinant of retirement. Twenty-one percent of pension plan participants planned to stop working before age 65, compared with 12 percent among nonparticipants. Workers whose primary pension plan was a defined benefit plan were more likely to expect to stop working before age 65 (23 percent) than workers whose primary plan was a defined contribution plan (18 percent). Expected income replacement rates effect retirement patterns, indicating that as the expected replacement increases, the probability of expecting to stop working before age 65 increases. Twenty-two percent of workers with an expected income replacement rate below 60 percent expected to stop working before age 65, compared with 29 percent for those in the 60-69 percent replacement range, and 30 percent for those in the 70-79 percent replacement range. Workers expecting to receive retiree health insurance are more likely to expect to stop working before age 65 than workers who do not expect to have retiree health insurance. Twenty-one percent of workers with retiree health insurance expected to stop working before age 65, compared with 12 percent of workers not expecting to receive retiree health insurance. The Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program depends on obtaining sufficient revenue from active workers' payroll taxes to fund the benefits received by retired beneficiaries. Funding the program in the past was in large part effortless because of the relatively large number of workers per retiree. Today, funding the program is a greater challenge because the ratio of workers to retirees has fallen. Policymakers have been able to agree that reform of the program is necessary for its survival; however, the debate over options to reform the program is just beginning, and it is likely to be a long time before a consensus emerges.     

Women's Welfare and Social Security Privatization in Mexico

Several Latin American countries have fully or partially privatizedtheir public pensions since the 1980s. In 1995 Mexico privatizedits public pension system, including a shift from a definedbenefit to defined contribution system based on privately administeredindividual accounts. This article uses feminist criteria toevaluate the gender impact of welfare regimes and concludesthat the Mexican pension privatization will have a negativeeffect on women’s welfare in old age.     

A Model of the Macroeconomic Effects of Privatization on Employment in Transition and Developing Countries with an Application to China

It is generally agreed that privatization of state-owned enterprises improves economic efficiency, but it is also widely feared that it exacerbates unemployment especially in transition and developing economies. This paper proposes a theoretical model of the macroeconomic relationships between privatization, efficiency, output, and employment. The model explains how privatization affects employment in transition and developing economies through different, and often opposing, channels. As a result, job losses at firms being privatized may result in overall job gains or losses in the economy, depending on the macroeconomic conditions. We apply this model to China and find that the model provides an intuitively appealing explanation for the job gains and losses caused by privatization in China during its transition. The model further suggests policies to maximize the gains and minimize the costs of privatization.     

Questions and answers on employee benefit issues

This Issue Brief addresses 19 topics in the areas of pensions, health insurance, and other benefits. In addition to the topics listed below, the report includes data on the prevalence of benefits, tax incentives associated with benefits, lump-sum distributions, number of private pension plans, pension coverage rates, 401(k) plans, employer spending on group health insurance, self-insured health plans, employer initiatives to reduce health care costs, and employers' response to the retiree health benefits accounting rule, and flexible benefits plans. In 1992, U.S. employers (public and private) spent $629 billion for noncash benefits, representing nearly 18 percent of total compensation, excluding paid time off. In 1992, 71 percent of the 50.1 million individuals aged 55 and over received retirement benefits, including distributions from private and public pensions, annuities, individual retirement accounts, Keoghs, 401(k)s, and Social Security. Among the 76 percent of all private pension plan participants who participated in a single plan, 30 percent named a defined benefit plan as their pension plan type, 58 percent named a defined contribution plan as their pension plan type, and 12 percent did not know their plan type. Private and public pension funds held more than $4.6 trillion in assets at the end of 1993. The 1993 year-end assets are more than triple the asset level of 1983 (nominal terms). According to the Congressional Budget Office, U.S. expenditures on health care were expected to have reached $898 billion in 1993, up from $751.8 billion in 1991, an increase of 19.4 percent in nominal terms.     

EMPLOYEE EVALUATION OF PENSION CLAIMS AND THE IMPACT OF INDEXING INITIATIVES

There is discussion in both Canada and the United States of proposals which require private pension plans to provide indexed pension benefits. This paper employs both an auction and an implicit contract model to identify the compensating wage differentials required of possible policy initiatives. The contract model, motivated by the prevalence (especially in Canada) of ad hoc cost-of-living adjustments to pensions in pay, presumes that workers have a call option on the investment earnings in excess of the interest rate assumption used to value the plan. The analysis indicates that wage offsets are potentially quite large, may be difficult to predict, and may vary substantially across firms. In addition, the case for policy action would appear to rest largely on the implicit assumption that workers misperceive the value of their pension benefits.     

Economic implications of Japan's aging population: a macro-economic demographic modeling approach

This paper utilizes a macroeconomic demographic model to analyze the probable impact of population aging on various public programs in Japan. Rapid fertility decline aided by mortality decline has caused the proportion of the Japanese population aged 65 and over to increase from 4.9% in 1950 to 9.0% in 1980. A population projection based on the 1975 population census assumes a recovery of fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 1976 to 2.16 in 1980 and a gradual decline to 2.1 by 1987, while an alternative projection assumes a continuing fertility decline to a TFR of 1.65 in 2025. According to these assumptions, in 2025 18.12% to 21.29% of the total population would be aged 65 or over and 38.66% to 43.80% of the working age population would be aged 45-64. A macroeconomic neoclassical growth model with some Keynesian features was formulated to evaluate the future impact of population aging on social security programs. Population changes are transmitted to economic variables in the model through the supply of labor, level of savings, public health care plans, and old-age pension schemes. The simulation experiments included the 2 population projections and 2 alternative production functions, 1 with the quality of labor incorporated and 1 without. The results indicated that, regardless of the population projection and production function used, the growth of the economy is likely to slow to 1 or 0% in the beginning of the next century due to decreased growth of the labor force and a change in its quality due to age-compositional variations. Public health insurance schemes and pension plans will require increasing financial resources as a result of accelerated population aging; depending on the choice of benefit levels, the proportion of national income allocated to them is expected to range from 14%-40% in the year 2010. Per capita gross national product will continue to grow despite decreased economic growth, but savings might be adversely affected if the provision of social insurance benefits continued to increase monotonically. Possible palliative measures would be to change present employment practices or to upgrade the quality of the labor force through vocational training programs for older workers.     

Foster parent perspectives of privatization policy and the privatized system

This study focused on foster parent perspectives of foster care privatization in the state of Florida. Ninety-nine members of Florida's foster parent associations were surveyed with a special attention toward their stance on privatization policy and their views of the local private agencies that deliver services in the privatized system. Results identified no clear consensus on the topic of privatization policy. Policy support was more likely to be seen among foster parents who had not served prior to privatization and among foster parents who viewed the local private agency to be competent and responsive. Views of local private agencies were most strongly influenced by the foster parents' satisfaction with foster parent training, their involvement in case decision-making, and the kindness of the foster care worker. These results have implications for practice in the privatized foster care system and for research in the evaluation of these systems.     

Reframing the benefits and beneficiaries of public benefits programs

This article uses current research to demonstrate that in addition to the direct benefits received by recipients of four main types of public benefit programs—cash assistance, public health insurance, food assistance, and public housing—non-recipients receive a variety of indirect economic and noneconomic benefits. Non-recipients include individuals, families, organizations, businesses, neighborhoods, and the general public. The review indicates that public benefits programs can indirectly benefit non-recipients economically by increasing economic security; stimulating local, state, and national economies; increasing employment and other measures of economic well-being; generating tax revenues; and providing cost savings. In addition, we determined two main types of indirect noneconomic benefits: enhancing neighborhood quality and the intrinsic rewards gained from fulfilling humanitarian and related values. We then summarize the results of these studies and make suggestions for future research. Finally, based on the reviewed research, we identify methods to reframe negative perceptions of government spending on public benefits programs. By reframing the benefits and beneficiaries of these programs, social workers, professional organizations, lobbyists, politicians, and elected officials can increase societal and political support for public benefits programs.     

Social security reform ideas in Japan

Japan has a complex social security system. This article discusses the demographic and economic situation in Japan as background for understanding the setting in which the social security system functions. Japan has a three-pillar system for retirement income. The first pillar is the social security pension plan; the second pillar is the voluntary occupational pension plan; and the third pillar is personal savings, including the personal pension plan. The most important part of the retirement income system is the social security pension plan, which paid benefits accounting for 64% of the total income of elderly households in 1998. The five Employees' Pension Plans are established on a compulsory social insurance basis. Most large Japanese employers have a mandatory retirement age. Over 90% of all employees, including public sector ones, must retire from their career jobs at age 60.     

Pension policy in China, Singapore, and South Korea: An assessment of the potential value of the notional defined contribution model

The rate of population aging is increasing in the developing world and the trend is particularly dramatic in East Asia. One consequence is sharp increases in old-age dependency ratios which have major implications for the sustainability of current public pension schemes. These trends are pushing pension policy experts in many of these countries to search for new pension models that are more suited to the increased demographic pressures they will be facing in the decades ahead. In this article we discuss five alternative public pension models with a focus on the newest of these models, the notional defined contribution (NDC) approach. We consider three countries with very different pension systems in place, two from East Asia (China and South Korea) and one from South East Asia (Singapore). The central question we address is which (if any) of the limitations in these existing models might more adequately be addressed using a variant of the NDC model. We conclude that the NDC model has the most to offer China and the least to offer Singapore.     

Changing Relationships Between Nonprofit and For-profit Human Service Organizations Under the Long-Term Care System in Japan

In Japan, a nonprofit organization system enacted in the late 1990s and the later introduction of privatization policies in human services were expected to overturn government dominance of nonprofit organization activities. By focusing on the long-term care insurance (LTCI) system, which privatized public human services for the first time in the country, this study empirically examines whether, and to what extent, nonprofit–government relationships in Japan have actually changed as a result of this new system. In addition, because LTCI newly allows for-profit organizations to provide services, the influence of such organizations were incorporated into the analysis. The outcomes of this study demonstrate that the government continues to extend its sphere of influence over nonprofit and for-profit organizations through LTCI. In addition, for-profit organizations appear to be more successful than nonprofit organizations, in that the former organizations have overcome their lack of experience as public service providers by taking over the roles that nonprofit organizations have traditionally occupied.     

居民养老保险:参保主体、筹资与待遇水平

本文从参保结构、筹资水平和待遇水平等3个方面对城乡居民养老保险制度进行了分析。研究发现,在参保结构方面,伴随着城镇化率的提高,居民养老保险参保人数的相对比例在下降;在筹资水平方面,个人缴费水平过低,其主要原因是财政补贴资金激励性不足,从而需要在进一步提高财政补贴的同时,优化补贴结构,提高对个人缴费的激励作用;在待遇方面,居民养老金总体水平较低、但增长幅度较大,与职工待遇相比,替代率的差距要远远小于绝对额的差距。     

The Smart-Seller Challenge: Exploring the Determinants of Privatizing Public Nursing Homes

This study investigates the determinants of local governments'decisions to privatize public nursing homes. According to theOnline Survey, Certification, and Reporting (OSCAR) 2004 data,more than 100 counties in the United States have recently divestedtheir nursing facilities through change of ownership to nonprofitor for profit or through termination. The theoretical modelused in this study proposes four broad categories of antecedentsof the privatization decision: market failure, government failure,and monetary and institutional factors. County governments areviewed as rational actors, affected by a range of external andinternal pressures and striving to maximize the attainment oftheir complex missions. The data used in this study come fromthe OSCAR 2004 file and several other sources. Using logisticregression analysis, the baseline (1998–2000) measuresof all independent variables for 622 county-owned homes wereregressed on the dummy dependent variable, indicating whetherthe nursing home was privatized by 2003 or not. Quantitativeanalysis was supplemented with two exploratory case studies.Local market competition, occupancy level, condition of thephysical plant, staffing, the prevalence of privatization inthe neighboring counties, and the proportion of elderly in thecounty were found to be significantly associated with the likelihoodof nursing home divestment. The analysis supports the idea ofa complex framework of managerial decision making: countiesappear to be smart sellers by divesting when occupancy declines,when the physical environment deteriorates, and when privatemarkets are relatively more competitive. They are also foundto be smart owners by sustaining public ownership of thrivingpublic facilities surrounded by failing private markets.     

Social Security Reform Ideas in Japan

Abstract

Japan has a complex social security system. This article discusses the demographic and economic situation in Japan as background for understanding the setting in which the social security system functions. Japan has a three-pillar system for retirement income. The first pillar is the social security pension plan; the second pillar is the voluntary occupational pension plan; and the third pillar is personal savings, including the personal pension plan. The most important part of the retirement income system is the social security pension plan, which paid benefits accounting for 64% of the total income of elderly households in 1998. The five Employees' Pension Plans are established on a compulsory social insurance basis. Most large Japanese employers have a mandatory retirement age. Over 90% of all employees, including public sector ones, must retire from their career jobs at age 60.     

China's Way of Economic Transition

China started economic transition in 1978 to implement a Chinese type of socialist market economy system, i.e., a market-oriented economy consisting of collectively community-owned enterprises (CCOE) and state-owned enterprises (SOE) in a totalitarian political system with the Communist Party of China as the ruling power. The main contents of the economic transition can be briefly described as follows: (1) gradual decentralization of economic decision from central economic planning to market-oriented decision by delegating competence to managers of SOE and CCOE without privatization of public ownership, (2) liberalization of cross border economic activities (open-door policy), (3) allowance for Chinese to erect private enterprises (PE) on the one side and foreigners to set up foreign invested enterprises (FIE) on the other side, as well as (4) reorganization of SOE and CCOE. In comparison to the former Soviet Union and the Central and Eastern European countries, the following points of China's way of economic transition are of special interest. First, China's way of transition is a ``gradual trial and error' approach without a transition program set for long term but flexible and gradual way which is called a ``touch stones to cross river' approach. Field experiments have been carried out at first. A reform will be implemented after successful experiments. Second, the rural community becomes reorganized by breaking down communes, implementing a ``household responsibility system' in the agricultural sector and setting CCOE in the rural areas to carry out industrialization without movement out of rural labor (the slogan for this kind of transition is lee tuh puh lee shian [``move out from agriculture but not out of rural area']. Third, China's economic development is characterized by a huge expansion of CCOE in the eighties and newly founded PE consisting of FIE since the nineties, while only a very limited share of SOE has been privatized via the reorganization of the sector. China's way of economic transition has been a process of decentralization of the economic system from a central planning economy to one of decentralized market-oriented decision by delegating competence to management of SOE and CCOE without privatization of the ownership to increase efficiency. Fourth, China has been heavily loaded by a fragile banking system with a huge amount of nonperformance loan which implies a high risk of banking system crisis. Fifth, China's economic transition has been seen as a tool to keep the power of the Communist Party China with a periodically instable totalitarian political system and has permanently been confronted with risk of a political collapse. Human rights have not been protected in China. The FIE have crucially contributed to the growth of industrial production, export, and also the economic growth in China since 1979, especially since 1992. Economic special zones have significantly induced the rapid growth inflow of FDI which has financed the establishment of new enterprises instead of financing privatization of the SOE in China. Thus, it is not exaggerated to say that the FDI inflow has mainly contributed to the performance of the Chinese economic transition and the FIE have been the engine of the Chinese economic development.     

Gender inequalities in pensions: different components similar levels of dispersion

While the average gender gap in pensions is quite well documented, gender differences in the distribution of pensions have rarely been explored. We show in this paper that pension dispersion is very similar for men and women within the French pension system of a given sector (public or private). Gender differences are less marked among retired civil servants than among former private sector employees. However, the determinants of these inequalities are not the same for men and women. Using a regression-based decomposition of the Gini coefficient, we find that pension dispersion is mostly due to dispersion of the reference wage for all retirees but gender differences exist. For women, in particular, pension dispersion is also due to the dispersion in contribution periods. We also decompose the Gini coefficient by source of pension to measure the impact of institutional rules (minimum pensions, survivor’s pension) on the extent of pension inequality. Unexpectedly, we find that the impact of minimum pensions is limited, although slightly larger for civil servants than for private-sector employees. Survivor’s pension schemes, on the other hand, contribute positively to pension dispersion among retired women.     

Warum es kaum Pensionsfonds in Deutschland gibt. Kapitalmarktrisiken,Finanzindustrie und die Politik der Mindestverzinsung

Studies of the rise of private defined-contribution pension plans have traditionally focused on social policy concerns about the allocation of risks and costs for beneficiaries and employers. There is however another dimension of pension privatization, which situates it in the context of financial markets and—more broadly—the economic system. Here, regulations forcing private pension providers to guarantee a minimum rate of return on individuals’ pension assets make a crucial difference for financial markets because they incentivize fund managers to invest a greater chunk of plan portfolios in fixed-income securities and therefore away from equities. While different segments of the financial industry have divergent preferences over minimum return guarantees, politicians are caught in a dilemma: Should they prioritize predictable benefit levels or the development of equity markets? Using the case of the introduction of the German Riester Rente, we argue that, as politicians linked the introduction of private defined-contribution plans with cuts in statutory pensions, insurance firms in coalition with trade unions insisted on minimum guarantees, thereby restricting the expansion of equity markets in Germany.     

Privatization of Refuse Removal and Labor Costs*

We examine the labor-cost savings associated with privatization by comparing earnings and employment trends of public and private sector refuse workers. Findings suggest that high union earnings for workers in the public sector are a source of labor-cost savings in the refuse industry. Evidence on job changers does not indicate that earnings for this group of workers are a compensating differential. Metropolitan area employment findings suggest that municipalities are less likely to use union refuse workers in the public sector when a relatively small percentage of area residents belong to a union.     

Privatization of refuse removal and labor costs

We examine the labor-cost savings associated with privatization by comparing earnings and employment trends of public and private sector refuse workers. Findings suggest that high union earnings for workers in the public sector are a source of labor-cost savings in the refuse industry. Evidence on job changers does not indicate that earnings for this group of workers are a compensating differential. Metropolitan area employment findings suggest that municipalities are less likely to use union refuse workers in the public sector when a relatively small percentage of area residents belong to a union. The authors thank Jacqueline Agesa, Keith Bender, Maria Crawford, and Richard Perlman for valuable suggestions. Research assistance from Eric Blackburn is greatly appreciated.