日本生育水平变化分析

日本作为少子老龄化最典型的国家其生育水平的变化非常具有代表性。本文使用"寇尔生育指数模型"分析二战以后日本生育水平的变化,探讨其未来的发展变化趋势。二战后,1947年日本总和生育率达到最高值4.54;之后生育水平不断下降,2005年达到最低值1.26;近年来日本生育水平缓慢提高,2014年总和生育率回升到1.42。日本生育水平下降的主要原因是婚内生育率下降及结婚率的降低。婚内生育率不断下降是由于生育观念转变导致的婚内生育意愿下降造成的,生育不再以传宗接代为目的,也不再是妻子必须履行的义务。结婚率的降低则是因为越来越多的女性参加工作,不愿过早结婚生子。婚内生育率与结婚率变化在生育水平下降的不同阶段表现不同,早期婚内生育率下降是导致总和生育率下降的主要原因,而结婚率的变化仅起到辅助作用;中期结婚率的下降成为总和生育率持续下降的主要诱因,而婚内生育率水平则保持相对稳定的水平。进入21世纪以来,日本生育水平有所回升的主要原因是婚内生育水平缓慢提高,结婚率下降对生育水平的消极作用也几乎释放完毕。未来日本在结婚率保持相对稳定的情况下,要想进一步提高总和生育水平就必须提高婚内生育率。政府必须在降低育儿成本、提高生育家庭的补助等方面制定相关政策,引导家庭多生育子女。     

试析我国的家庭类型及其成员构成

我国自70年代以来,计划生育政策通过对人口再生产的调整和控制,不仅对我国的生育水平,也对我国的家庭结构和家庭人口规模产生了深刻的影响。本文拟利用重经计算机归类处理的1982年全国1‰人口生育率抽样调查中的有关资料,对我国的家庭结构及家庭平均人口规模,以及家庭成员对家庭生育的影响等问题作出分析。 一、家庭户的类型 重经处理的全国1‰人口生育率抽样调查把我国的家庭分为(一)单身户、(二)非家庭户、(三)简单家庭户、(四)扩展家庭户、(五)复合家庭户、(六)其它家庭户六大类型。从表1中提供的数据可以看出,在我国各类家庭中,简单家庭户(即核心家庭)所占的比重最高,为68％。这种通     

1950—1979年中国婚姻、生育转变的若干理论问题

问题的提出 关于研究课题的深度与广度 中国生育率转变已被人口学者(邬沧萍1985)确认为比公认最快的日本更为迅猛。但对其独特性的理论探究则往往落在其后。 由于捕捉了过去一代人生育率与结婚率的历史巨变,1982年全国1‰生育率调查引出了中外学者大量的研究。多数作者着力于结婚率和生育率水平与趋势的测量和描述。有些作者泛泛地提到了生育率转变,但未将它作为一个系统变化的过程来处理。对生育率和结婚率波     

中国人口生育率的下降与人口老龄化

本文提出中国人口老龄化本身并不一定就是问题，伴随着生育率和死亡率的下降而出现的人口老龄化在初期是有利于社会经济发展的；在１９５０～１９９０年的人口年龄构成变动中，生育率下降对人口老龄化的影响远远大于死亡率下降的影响；生育率的下降是中国这一时期人口老龄化的主要影响因素，在低生育率条件下，由于不同队列人口规模的差异和人口惯性的存在，仍然会使中国人口向老龄化发展。     

生育率演变的生态学逻辑及人口增长的长期趋势

人口增长的长期过程一直是充满困惑与引发争论的话题,将人类复归到生态系统的普通成员,按照生态学逻辑构建一个由替代生育率内生引导、人口容量外生制约的人口增长新模型,以代替用具体社会经济因子解释短周期人口变动的传统思路,探讨生育率转变的一般模式及人口发展的长期趋势。工业革命以来,全球人口已经或正在经历着第一次、第二次生育率转变,全球生育率演变可以聚类为欧美、亚非拉、撒哈拉以南非洲和东亚四种区域模式;在计划生育政策的推动下,我国在短短的三十年内完整经历了两次生育率转变。极限替代生育率是生育率演变的长期目标,但当前已有一些国家跌破更替水平,这也许会成为各个国家的普遍经历,预示着人口容量约束的日益显性化;世界及主要国家的人口规模正在日益逼近其容量极限,并会在惯性驱动下突破容量限制,达到峰值后再以负增长方式趋近人口容量,同期的生育率也将向极限替代生育率递增复归。按趋势模拟世界和中国的可持续人口容量分别约为65亿人和12亿人。研究设计出测量人口增长惯性的新指标——人口增长惯性系数,它是生育率与实时替代生育率之比或出生率与死亡率之比,相比常用的人口惯性因子更为简便易行。     

人口老龄化机制研究:基于生育率持续下降视角

人口老龄化现象主要通过人口转变理论解释,由于生育率下降不满足经典的人口转变理论设想,人口转变理论对人口老龄化的解释力受到挑战。从制度的角度研究社会养老制度建立以后形成的"社会养老、家庭养子"对生育率的影响,以期解释人口转变结束后生育率持续下降的原因,从生育率下降视角研究人口老龄化机制。研究发现,在"社会养老、家庭养子"制度下,养子收益减少、养子成本提高、家庭养子资源比例减少,使家庭生育率下降,生育率下降导致人口老龄化程度加深;人口老龄化程度加深提高养子成本、降低家庭养子资源比例,由于家庭缺乏养子激励,生育率进一步下降,进而导致更严重的老龄化。老龄化一旦形成,具有不断强化的机制。     

社会经济发展的生育率效应研究

本文运用相关、回归和路径分析方法，从时序与截面数据相结合的角度，对中国社会经济发展的生育率效应作了系统实证分析。研究指出经济发展水平是决定生育率水平的终极性因素，但其直接影响力较小，更多地是通过中介变量间接影响生育率的变动。经济发展是中国生育率下降的基础和实现人口控制的长期条件，文化水平在生育率转变中起特殊重要的作用。作者还分析了造成生育率时序、地区和城乡差异的原因及进一步降低生育率水平的对策建议。     

论家族文化对农村人口控制的影响

国外生育率转变理论认为,经济因素,特别是生产力发展水平是影响人口发展过程的主要因素,经济的现代化是生育率革命和人口革命的根本原因,也就是说,只要经济发展了,生育率自然而然地就会发生根本性转变。也有的学者把“财富流”在父代和子代之间的流动方向和数量,作为决定生育率高低的根本性条件。我认为,这些以西方文化背景和思维模式为基础的理论,很难诠释我国农村的生育率转变过程,尤其不能解释我国农村生育率水平下降至更替水平后遇到的硬性约束,即在男性偏好支配下的超生行为。究其原因就在于,我国的传统文化,尤其是传统家族文化对农民的生育观念和生育行为有着极其深刻的影响。可以说,文化因素对我国生育率转变所起的作用并不亚于经济因素,这与西方国家的情况是大不相同的。     

当前世界人口研究的主要课题

李竞能在《人口情报与研究》1988年第1期著文指出,当前人口研究最受到重视的有以下七个方面:1.生育率问题。影响生育水平的主要因素:有社会经济因素、文化因素和人口本身的因素,发展中国家生育转变,国家和地区间的生育水平差异,生育政策,生育控制,计划生育管理。成本收益分析等。2.对死亡率的研究。如何依据不完备的人     

新人口态势与旧传统观念:在诱发性人口转变中的中国家庭(下)

从人口展望看家庭结构 象生命事件一样,结婚和婚后居住地点的决定,任何时候都在连续地发生着。从社会方面看,它们的数量反映了未来不同时点上达到结婚年龄的人数可能达到的程度。而这部份人可能达到的数量,受生育率水平摆动的影响很大。当生育率上下波动幅度很快、很大时,在新婚人群中的不同类型住户的分布所受到的影响就更明显。     

Bridewealth and Birth Control: Low Fertility in the Indonesian Archipelago, 1500–1900

Before the onset of the present demographic transition, population growth in Indonesia had reached unprecedentedly high levels. This article demonstrates that such high levels were a recent phenomenon. Prior to 1900 rates of natural population increase were low to very low in most areas in Indonesia. This runs counter to expectations based on Hajnal's “Eastern marriage pattern,” which could imply high growth levels in extended family areas, such as most Indonesian regions outside Java in the past. Usually, the low population growth rates in Southeast Asia are attributed to high mortality owing to high levels of violent conflict. It is argued that other factors contributing to such high levels of mortality should receive more attention. In this article it is also argued that low fertility rates, too, played a role in generating low rates of natural increase. The article discusses the influence of marriage patterns, household structure, methods of birth control, adoption, and slavery on fertility.     

Family household and nuptiality changes: a search for some explanations from the recent past

Using the demographic transition framework as a basis for analysis, the author examines the levels, trends, and differentials in household size and structure in the Philippines. Time-series data on average household size from the censuses show that the changes observed over time are closely associated with or have run parallel to the shifts in mortality and fertility. Data from the 1968, 1973, and 1983 National Demographic Surveys revealed small increases in 1-person households, modest increases in small-sized and moderate-sized households, and substantial decreases in large-sized households. The data also disclosed structural shifts among various types of family households. Between 1968 and 1983, family households experienced increasing nuclearization. While expectation for support in old age has somewhat diminished recently, parents' preference to join their daughters will have the effect of increasing the opportunity of females to head households. More highly educated persons exhibited a greater tendency to head the bigger-sized, extended family household, although this has diminished somewhat lately. Increases in the age at 1st marriage of both males and females affect the life span of family households, especially nuclear households. A multivariate analysis using macrolevel data as inputs demonstrated the very strong influences of the factors of desirability of marriage, availability of mate, and urbanization on the marriage pattern. Enhancing employment opportunities and creating appropriate mechanisms through which present incomes may be increased in the hinterlands under various rural development programs may help to diminish the values attached to children. The provision of more and better facilities for higher education especially in the disadvantaged provinces will enable young people, especially females, to gain access to higher learning, thus providing alternatives to early marriage and childbearing.     

Simulating the effect of demographic events on the household composition

The aim of this paper is to measure the effects on household composition of changes in demographic events, e.g. mortality, fertility, marriage, divorce. British household data are taken from the General Household Survey and aged by simulation to 2001 using a ‘Most Likely’ model. Subsequently different assumptions of each demographic event are taken from 1991 so that the effects of perturbations within each event can be studied. Special features of the simulation model are the differentiations between cohabitation and marriage and separation and divorce, and the detailed breakdowns of household types such as lone parents into single and previously married women and men with children aged 0–4, 5–15 and 16 and over.     

A simulation of the impact of changes in age at marriage before and during the advent of industrialization in England

Summary The quantitative significance of changes in age at marriage on family size is assessed by applying a simple simulation model of family reproduction, using data broadly related to England in the period 1700-1850. Within this context, the impacts of parity-specific infant mortality, and an association between age at marriage and potential fertility are considered. The evidence concerning variations in marriage and mortality distributions over the period in question is examined and linked to the simulation results to produce some tentative conclusions relating to the impact of changes in the distribution of age at marriage on the birth rate and rate of population growth and to an assessment of such changes as an homeostatic adjustment mech-anism. In particular, it is argued that age at marriage played no more than a secondary role in the English demographic revolution.     

Below-replacement fertility in Thailand and its policy implications

The fertility transition in Thailand has been one of the most rapid among Asian countries that are yet to attain newly industrialized country status. In the early 1960s, the total fertility rate exceeded six births per woman; currently, it stands at 1.9 or slightly below replacement level. At present, it is hard to predict the future trend in fertility as this involves several factors that need much closer study, in particular, fertility preferences, changes in marriage patterns and the wider effects of the current economic crisis in Thailand. Rapid declines in fertility and mortality have had a profound effect on the age structure of the population, notably the increasing elderly proportion. Thailand now faces new challenges and priorities for population policy. Policy responses to concerns arising from below-replacement fertility will be much more complex and involve greater government activism, improved institutional capacities and more resources than in the past. This paper reviews the fertility transition in Thailand and looks at some consequences and policy implications of low fertility, with special reference to the family and the elderly population. National Statistical Office     

Factors Associated with the Finnish Fertility Decline Since 1776

The analysis of annual age-specific fertility rates in Finland over more than 200 years reveals the existence of a significant early fertility decline at the end of the eighteenth century preceding the secular decline that started around 1910. A reconstruction of age-specific proportions married by a simulation model based on Coale's marriage model indicates that the mean age at marriage increased and the proportion ever-marrying decreased substantially during the period of the early fertility decline. A modification of the index of family limitation applied under certain assumptions to overall fertility rates also indicates that fertility was essentially natural until 1910. Cross-lagged correlation analysis shows that infant mortality does not influence subsequent fertility in the pre-modern period. Finally, a number of socio-economic indicators are related to fertility, and conclusions are drawn from the Finnish case about several hypotheses in the field of demographic transition.     

婚姻形式与生育水平:对中国农村三个县的考察

应用在招赘婚姻高度流行区、中度流行区和低度流行区的调查数据 ,研究了婚姻形式以及个人、家庭和社会因素对生育水平的影响及其区域差异。研究结果有助于理解农村人口在社会转型中婚姻与生育的变化过程和后果 ,为在农村稳定低生育率提供新的思路和途径。     

Marriage form and fertility in rural China: an investigation in three counties

Using data from two surveys in three counties where the prevalence of uxorilocal marriage differs greatly, this paper analyzes impact of marriage form, individual, family, and social factors on fertility and its regional differences. The results show that, under the Chinese patrilineal joint family system, uxorilocal marriage does not universally increase fertility, which is likely to be determined by other factors. It is further found that fertility differs greatly in the three regions, and is significantly lower in regions where uxorilocal marriage is common than in regions where virilocal marriage is dominant. Women’s marriage cohort, age at first marriage, and number of sisters all have significant effects on fertility. These findings address the process and consequences of change in rural family and marriage customs during the current demographic and social transition.     

Two and a half centuries of demographic history in a Bavarian village

Abstract A village genealogy containing family histories of couples married between 1692 and 1939 serves as the basis for a study of the demographic history of a Bavarian village. The past patterns of marriage, re-marriage, widowhood, illegitimacy, bridal pregnancy, marital fertility, family size, and birth intervals are examined. Both the age at marriage and illegitimacy increased and then declined during the nineteenth century, apparently in response to changes in restrictive marriage legislation. Differences in fertility for occupational groups were insignificant. Marital fertility remained extremely high before 1900 suggesting the absence of any substantial family limitation within marriage. A rise in marital fertility that occurred during the last half of the nineteenth century appears to result from a change in breast-feeding customs. The actual number of children surviving to maturity for most couples was kept quite low, however, through late marriage and high infant mortality. Only during the twentieth century are substantial declines in infant mortality and fertility evident.