全国首届中青年学者老龄问题学术研讨会在京举行

在人口结构由成年型向老年型转变之际 ,由中国老龄协会和中国人口福利基金会主办 ,中国人民大学人口研究所协办 ,并得到法国国家人寿保险公司支持的“全国首届中青年学者老龄问题学术研讨会”于 1999年10月 12日在京举行 ,此次会议芸集了上百名各地中青年学者 ,他们就 2 1世纪中国老龄问题的发展趋势、对策和出路进行了探讨。本次会议的主题报告共分为 10个部分 :人口老龄化的现状与趋势、家庭养老、寿命与健康、老年脆弱群体、城市养老保障、农村养老保障、社区服务、老年产业、权益保障和社会参与、建议和对策。围绕主题报告 ,根据 16 0余…     

放大与缩小：中国人口老龄问题中被掩盖的事实——兼论中国老龄研究中的指标改良与理论反思

老龄相关问题的测量与操作化是老龄研究的基础。部分传统老龄指标的衰竭与偏误导致中国当前人口老龄问题中存在诸多被掩盖的事实,其突出表现为5个方面的“放大与缩小”:一是传统的年龄划分标准会放大劳动年龄人口比例而缩小人口抚养比;二是户籍人口统计口径会放大城市人口老龄化程度而缩小农村人口老龄化程度;三是在人口迁移流动愈发频繁的当下,名义上的完整家庭结构指标会放大家庭养老功能而缩小政府养老负担;四是健康预期寿命会放大健康老龄化的成就而缩小病痛老龄化的危机;五是传统的老年年龄标准会放大养老负担而缩小老年人自身作用。重新审视传统老龄指标及其信效度,并尝试构建新的指标以推动中国自主的人口学知识体系建设显得尤为重要。     

农村老人自理能力、服务需求与家庭贫困关联度分析

伴随人口老龄化加速和养老模式的变迁,农村人口养老问题越来越成为学术界关注的重要议题。农村老龄人口在养老上不仅面临较大的经济压力,同时由于成年劳动力的外流,在养老服务上也面临着供给不足。农村老龄贫困家庭尤为值得关注,老龄人口的自理能力是否会对家庭贫困产生影响?家庭贫困与老人自理能力及服务需求存在什么样的关系?这些问题都急需解决,基于此,文章以精准识别家庭贫困成因为思路,以老龄化为视角,探析农村老龄人口自理能力、服务需求与家庭贫困三个变量之间的关联性。具体方法是基于CHNS数据库1989²011年9次调查面板数据,通过建立联立方程模型分别对各个假设进行面板Logit回归估计检验。检验结果表明,农村老人自理能力与服务需求显著正相关,与低收入家庭、家庭规模呈现显著负相关;老人服务需求与家庭收入、生活质量呈显著负相关,自理能力对服务需求有显著的正向作用;服务需求满足程度、个人收入与医疗保险对老年家庭贫困有显著的负向作用,自理能力对农村老人家庭贫困影响并不显著。进一步的研究发现非老人家庭中自理能力、服务需求与家庭贫困也有显著的关联性。因此,自理能力、服务需求与家庭贫困存在显著的相关性,针对农村老年贫困家庭,应优先满足其经济和健康需求,从而为精准识别老年贫困和精准帮扶贫困家庭提供支持,在此基础上,逐步改善农村老龄人口养老服务状况,提升其生活质量。     

新型养老体系的初步研究与设想

养老体系是指在一个特定的社会中老龄人口生活的支持系统 ,从其形成方式看 ,包括两个部分 :正规养老制度和非正规养老制度 ,二者有其各自的社会经济基础、经济和人力保障、道德和法制保障。中国现行养老体系所面临的问题是 :人口老龄化 ,城乡差别 ,不完善的城镇职工退休保障制度和家庭结构的变迁。而新型养老体系的构建 ,不仅要改革和完善正规养老制度 ,还要使非正规养老制度与之相互补充和协调     

老龄人口生活指数及其与家庭结构关系的研究

家庭是社会的细胞,是人们日常生活的基本单位。是老龄人口养老的基本场所。而家庭的存在表现为有多种结构类型,且老龄人口对养老生活的需求又是多方面的。因此,通过对家庭结构与老龄人口生活指数的探讨,认识家庭结构类型的特征,当代老龄人口对生活指数的需求以及两者间的内在联     

农村社会养老服务需求意愿的实证分析——基于甘肃563位老人问卷调查

本文针对甘肃农村人口老龄化的发展态势及当前农村养老服务存在的各种问题,基于甘肃农村563位老年人问卷调查和知情人访谈获取的数据资料,就甘肃农村老年人口对养老服务方式和养老服务项目的需求意愿进行了分析.分析结果表明:在养老服务方式上,绝大多数甘肃农村老年人口愿意居家养老并享受家庭和社区提供的各种养老服务;在养老服务项目上,甘肃农村老年人对医疗护理和临终照料的服务需求最为强烈.鉴于当前加速发展的城镇化和家庭人口小型化给农村养老服务已构成了严峻挑战,本文从农村机构养老服务建设、养老服务信息化平台建设和养老服务队伍专业化多样化建设等方面提出了相应对策建议,以利于甘肃及我国农村养老服务体系的建设和发展.     

基于结构方程模型的农村居家养老服务供给水平分析

提高农村居家养老服务供给水平,是增进农村老年人福祉的必然要求.通过对辽宁省农村居家养老服务供需状况的调查,运用结构方程模型分析法,实证分析了农村居家养老服务供给水平的内在结构与逻辑机理.结果表明:在农村,居家养老服务供给水平的影响因素主要有需求意愿、家庭特征、制度特征和供给能力,各影响因素之间具有内在关联性.因此,解决农村养老问题需要尊重农村老年人的养老需求意愿,加大居家养老服务政策支持力度,注重体现居家养老服务的公共性供给,优化农村居家养老服务供给机制,提升农村居家养老服务供给水平,有效增进农村老年人福祉.     

疾病和失能对老年人口健康预期寿命的影响--兼论卫生资源在老年人口健康分类投资的方向

本文根据1998年第二次国家卫生服务调查分析数据和常规卫生统计资料,采用Sullivan方法分析了三种在人群中仍有较高发病率的病毒性肝炎、疟疾、结核等传染性疾病及慢性病和失能对中国围老龄期和老龄期人口健康预期寿命的影响,目的是了解不同的非健康状态对老年人口健康水平影响的程度,为中国有限的卫生资源流向提供一些参考信息.     

中国少数民族人口老龄化现状及挑战

准确把握我国少数民族人口老龄化态势是积极应对少数民族人口老龄化的前提与关键。利用2000—2020年三次全国人口普查数据,系统分析我国少数民族人口老龄化的最新特征与发展趋势,并探讨我国少数民族老龄问题和积极应对措施。研究发现,2020年少数民族60岁及以上老年人口比例达到13.10%,人口老龄化呈现加速增长态势,但老龄化进程慢于汉族。少数民族老年人口呈现高龄化和女性化特征,人口老龄化城乡倒置现象明显。此外,少数民族老年人口主要集中于壮族、满族、回族等人口较多的民族中,39个少数民族已进入老龄社会或老龄化社会阶段,各民族人口老龄化水平的分化进一步增大。各民族地区人口老龄化进程加快,老年人主要生活来源为家庭供养,老年空巢家庭规模持续增长,老年人家庭空巢化现象凸显。少数民族人口老龄化既是我国各民族共同繁荣发展的重要体现,也为少数民族和民族地区的养老保障与养老服务带来了诸多挑战。一是民族地区养老保障发展滞后于少数民族人口老龄化进程;二是伴随少数民族人口老龄化,民族地区养老服务需求迅速增加,养老服务体系建设还需破解多重挑战;三是面对各少数民族和民族地区人口老龄化进程与经济、文化、地域特征的差异,...     

建好“四个服务平台” 全力为计生家庭和群众服务——专访济南市人口计生委党组书记、主任孙君涛

随着经济转轨、社会转型、人口形势转变,人口计生部门工作的性质正逐步由行政管理为主向实现优质服务转变。刘延东副总理在国家卫生和计划生育委员会成立大会上指出：＂要坚持为人民健康服务,为提升人口素质服务,为计划生育群众服务。＂这＂三个服务＂为今后人口计生工作指明了方向。近年来,济南市人口计生系统牢固树立＂以人为本、群众至上、服务为先＂的理念,创新服务模式,改进工作作风,加强计生技术、便民服务、奖励扶助、家庭发展＂四个服务平台＂建设,实施一系列便民惠民措施,把更好更优的服务送到计生群众家中,     

Affluence,Feelings of Stress,and Well-being

Data from the Gallup World Poll highlighted the differential relations between perceived stress, well-being, and wealth at the individual- versus nation-level. At the nation level, stress was a distinct concept from negative affect (NA). It correlated positively with well-being (positive affect, life satisfaction, and domain satisfaction) and wealth (as measured by income, gross domestic product, and modern conveniences). In contrast, NA correlated inversely with well-being and income. Although similar to NA at the individual level, stress showed weaker negative relations with well-being than NA did. In sum, nation-level stress and NA were related in the opposite direction to wealth (and poverty), well-being, and life expectancy. Furthermore, the concept of stress differed at the individual and nation levels. For the former, stress appeared to be purely a negative marker of affective well-being (albeit weaker than other discrete negative emotions); for the latter, it appeared to reflect lifestyle differences that were strongly associated with wealth, and with affective and cognitive well-being to a smaller degree.     

Nuptiality, fertility, use of contraception, and family policies in Uzbekistan

With more than 22 million inhabitants, Uzbekistan is the most populous of the Central Asian republics of the former USSR. Using data from a retrospective survey conducted in 1992 among women of reproductive age, the paper examines fertility trends and determinants during the twentieth century. The analysis shows that the absence of a government-supported birth control programme and the strong pro-natalist policies of the Soviet authorities during most of the century did not affect either the onset, nor the progress of the fertility transition. The results indicate, however, that the social development programmes undertaken by the Soviet government did play a very active part in the transition as shown by the impact of education on reproductive behaviour, as well as on the very specific contraceptive mix adopted by the population after the mid-1970s.     

Sexual identity distress, social support, and the health of gay, lesbian, and bisexual youth

Sex researchers and mental health clinicians have long recognized that the stigma surrounding homosexuality plays an important role in shaping the social psychological adjustment of gay, lesbian, and bisexual (g/l/b) people. In recent years, researchers have suggested that sexual identity- related distress may influence the physical health status of g/l/b people, primarily because of the ways these self-related feelings and beliefs impact patterns of health-related behavior. This study examines the influence of sexual identity distress and social support on g/l/b youth's drug and alcohol use, psychological distress, and risky sexual behavior. The data come from a services research demonstration program conducted at the Indiana Youth Group, Inc., a g/l/b youth development agency based in Indianapolis, Indiana. Results indicate that sexual identity distress is strongly associated with psychological distress, less frequent use of alcohol, and using fewer types of illegal drugs. Being out to more people in one's support network, however, attenuates the severity of youth's sexual identity-related distress. Youth who report more support ties to g/l/b people indicate engaging in more frequent risky sexual behavior. The implications of these findings for theories of g/l/b youth's sexual identity development are discussed.     

Predictability,complexity, and catastrophe in a collapsible model of population,development, and environmental interactions

"More and more population forecasts are being produced with associated 95 percent confidence intervals. How confident are we of those confidence intervals? In this paper, we produce a simulated dataset in which we know both past and future population sizes, and the true 95 percent confidence intervals at various future dates. We use the past data to produce population forecasts and estimated 95 percent confidence intervals using various functional forms. We, then, compare the true 95 percent confidence intervals with the estimated ones. This comparison shows that we are not at all confident of the estimated 95 percent confidence intervals." (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

Famine,Disease, and Mortality Patterns in the Parish of Borshevka,Russia, 1830–1912

Scholars have projected a dismal image of nineteenth-century, rural Russia as a society repeatedly punctuated by crop failures, famine, starvation, and epidemics of famine-related diseases. But there has been no rigorous attempt, using appropriate methods, to assess the nature of demographic crises in Russia and their contribution to overall mortality and population growth. The pattern of mortality evident in the parish under examination is distinguished by an extremely high incidence of infant, diarrhoeal diseases and childhood, infectious diseases. This unfavourable disease environment and resulting high rates of infant and early childhood mortality were more closely related to fertility levels, household size, housing conditions, and weaning practices than to annual or seasonal food availability and the nutritional status of the population. In a disease-driven society, the susceptibility to infection and the force of infection can, to a considerable extent, be determined by demographic factors, familial norms, and climatic constraints.     

Famine, disease, and mortality patterns in the parish of Borshevka, Russia, 1830-1912

Scholars have projected a dismal image of nineteenth-century, rural Russia as a society repeatedly punctuated by crop failures, famine, starvation, and epidemics of famine-related diseases. But there has been no rigorous attempt, using appropriate methods, to assess the nature of demographic crises in Russia and their contribution to overall mortality and population growth. The pattern of mortality evident in the parish under examination is distinguished by an extremely high incidence of infant, diarrhoeal diseases and childhood, infectious diseases. This unfavourable disease environment and resulting high rates of infant and early childhood mortality were more closely related to fertility levels, household size, housing conditions, and weaning practices than to annual or seasonal food availablity and the nutritional status of the population. In a disease-driven society, the susceptibility to infection and the force of infection can, to a considerable extent, be determined by demographic factors, familial norms, and climatic constraints.     

Approaches,assaults, attractions,affairs: Policy implications of the sexualization of the workplace

This article is an analysis of the relationship between, on the one hand, empirical findings and theoretical perspectives on the sexualization of the workplace and, on the other, changes in public policy intended to prevent and eliminate sexual harassment as a problem for employed women. The sexualization on the workplace is conceptualized as all consensual and coerced sexual interactions at work, that is, both sexual harassment and sexual relationships. A summary of the evidence regarding both types of behaviors reveals that sexual harassment is experienced quite often by women workers; occasionally, women engage in sexual relationships with persons met at work. Harassment has significant negative consequences for the economic, emotional and physical condition of women, delimiting further an economic position for women which has already been affected severely by occupational segregation and employment discrimination. In assessing the impact of guidelines of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission defining sexual harassment as sexual discrimination, issues are raised concerning the use and effectiveness of the guidelines by women workers, courts, and employers. It is argued that public policy on harassment is necessary and progressive but limited in its impact; the bulk of the problem, especially with regard to co-worker behavior, and the structural context of inequality are left relatively untouched.This article is a revision of a presentation given at the Labor Studies Colloquium, the Society for the Study of Social Problems (August 1984).     

Society,family, and gender in Santa Fe,New Granada,until the end of the colony

The author examines family structure in Santa Fe, the capital of New Granada, a Spanish colony that included Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, and Venezuela. The focus is on the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. He finds that social class structure was closely related to ethnic group and skin color, and that the sex ratio was biased toward women. Women also headed nearly 50% of all households. Data are mainly from the 1801 smallpox census.     

Community satisfaction,expectations of moving,and migration

A previous residential mobility model (Speare, 1974) assumes an additive relationship between residential satisfaction, desire to move, and mobility. This paper elaborates the model and applies it to intercounty migration. An interaction between community satisfaction and expectations to migrate is hypothesized which distinguishes four groups of decision makers. A survey in Durham, North Carolina and a unique mobility followup over eight years provide the data to test the model and the interaction. Furthermore, using various time periods for identifying migrants offers some methodological insights. Results support Speare’s general formulation but only after the interaction is taken into account. A three-year migration interval is found to be appropriate.