中国低生育水平下的生育意愿与生育行为差异研究

在国家实行全面两孩政策背景下,认清生育意愿与生育行为的差异,是把握中国未来人口形势变化的关键。文章利用2010年以来的四次全国性抽样调查原始数据,对中国育龄人群的生育意愿与生育行为的差异及影响因素进行分析。研究发现:中国目前意愿生育水平在1.82~1.88的区间范围内,其点估计值在1.86左右,已显著低于更替水平;越年轻的出生队列其生育意愿越低,中国未来的意愿生育水平可能会继续降低;育龄人群的意愿生育水平要显著高于其终身生育水平,且二者差异随年龄的减小呈递增趋势,中国未来生育水平存在进一步下降的可能性;没有生育政策限制下的终身生育水平仅为1.68,这可以作为生育政策调整对中国生育水平影响的上限。生育政策对当前育龄人群生育意愿与生育水平差异的贡献度在33%左右,全面两孩政策对中国生育水平的提升作用有限。     

低生育水平下的生育成本收益研究——来自江苏省的调查

文章应用江苏生育意愿与生育行为调查结果,研究符合二孩生育政策妇女的生育行为、生育计划和生育观念,主要从妇女的角度分析生育威本和生育收益,并应用多元统计分析方法重点分析生育成本对妇女生育计划的影响.研究发现,育龄妇女大多认为满足精神需求是最重要的生育理由,而第二个孩子的养育成本是主要考虑因素.在控制了年龄、受教育程度、居住地、户口性质、婚姻状况、生育观念等特征后,生育的经济成本和心理成本对妇女生育二孩的计划有显著影响.     

我国妇女生育推迟与近期生育水平变化

随着我国时期生育水平的下降,我国妇女的平均生育年龄自20世纪90年代以来呈现上升的趋势。在这样的情况下,传统的时期总和生育率的估计受到进度效应的影响,人们从这一指标中难以对我国近期生育水平的变化形成正确的认识。本文利用多来源可靠数据,对我国近期的总和生育率以及去进度效应总和生育率进行了估计,发现去除进度效应影响后,生育水平的时期估计值有了大幅度上升,2007²012年的生育水平大约在1.7至1.8之间。研究进一步重构了19642012年的生育水平大约在1.7至1.8之间。研究进一步重构了1964¹985年出生队列的部分年龄别生育率,发现年轻队列的峰值年龄别生育率较低,但在较高年龄时会出现年龄别生育率相较之前队列升高的现象。文章进一步探讨了我国生育政策对于妇女生育行为的影响以及政策变动可能带来的时期生育率的变化。     

全面二孩政策背景下中国城市女性的生育偏好与生育计划

文章利用2016年全国6省12市生育调查数据,分析中国城市家庭已婚已育一孩妇女的生育偏好与生育计划及其影响因素,结果发现:有24.4％的人计划生育二孩并且有明确的时间安排,有5.1％的人计划生育二孩但没有时间安排.生育偏好受个体家庭生活和成长环境的影响,跟公婆居住、有兄弟姐妹的女性更可能有二孩偏好,但这些因素并不对生育计划产生影响;现实两大限制因素——经济成本和照料压力影响生育二孩的计划,但并不对生育偏好产生影响;男孩偏好是一种现实促进因素,第一个孩子是女孩的女性更可能有生育第二个孩子的计划;生育计划和生育偏好之间的偏离也主要受到现实因素(年龄、家庭收入、照料可获得性、性别偏好)的影响.     

对邦戈茨-菲尼方法的评述、检验与灵敏度分析

邦戈茨——菲尼于1998年提出的新方法表明孩次别平均生育年龄1年降低(或增高)0.x岁,孩次别时期总和生育率将上升(或下降)大约x％。文章对这一方法的合理性进行模拟检验与灵敏度分析。结果表明,在一般正常情况下,邦戈茨——菲尼方法的估算结果的误差率很小,而在孩次别平均生育年龄年变动幅度大于0.25岁或生育年龄分布四分位差年变动幅度大于0.1岁时的非正常情况下,邦戈茨——菲尼方法将产生超过10％的误差率。文章还讨论了邦戈茨——菲尼方法在人口政策分析中的应用。     

浅析中国1991～2000年生育模式变化对生育水平的影响

分析生育模式的变化对生育水平的影响 ,通过计算 1 991～ 2 0 0 0年中国去进度效应总和生育率TFR’ ,清楚地看出 ,提高初婚年龄和拉大一孩至二孩生育间隔所造成的生育模式的变化导致中国 1 0年间TFR偏低。去进度效应总和生育率TFR’较之TFR更加接近中国妇女的实际终身生育水平     

中国人口生育变化及影响因素——基于第六次人口普查的分析

本文在"六普"汇总数据的基础上,定量分析中国人口的生育水平、生育模式的变化和生育变化的影响因素。研究发现,在生育水平持续下降的情况下,结构性因素逐渐成为左右未来中国生育水平走向的决定性因素;生育模式正在向初婚初育间隔扩大,生育孩次向低孩次集中的方向发展;尽管年龄别已婚生育率的变化使得中国一般生育率上升9.613%,在导致生育水平下降的各因素中,育龄妇女年龄结构、婚姻状态等人口因素的影响显得越来越重要。研究结果对于正确理解我国的人口形势,科学地规划和调整人口政策具有十分重要的意义。     

广东妇女文化素质与生育水平分析

对于不同文化程度的育龄妇女,其生育观念,优生节育知识及在社会和家庭中的角色地位等都存在较大差异,进而影响其生育水平。本文从妇女的婚育年龄,总和生育率,活产子女,生育孩次构成等方面,来分析广东妇女文化素质与生育水平的关系。     

对“单独二孩”政策新的认识与思考

随着"单独二孩"政策落地,生育政策再次成为社会热点,各种说法频出,有必要更广泛、深入的讨论。文章在对"单独二孩"政策实施后一年来相关研究成果进行梳理和总结的基础上,从妇女终身生育水平和生育地区差异的角度,对"单独二孩"政策进行了新的解读,并从多个侧面展开了政策思考。研究表明:妇女的终身生育水平没有从时期生育水平看到的那么低,中国尚谈不上已陷入"超低生育率陷阱",地区差异大仍然是中国人口生育的基本特征,政策调整需要统筹兼顾。在"单独二孩"政策刚落地一年就做出政策"遇冷"判断不够审慎,过渡性的"单独二孩"政策发挥着向"全面二孩"政策接续的重要"错峰"作用。政策变化带来的社会影响要远比生育本身更广泛、复杂。     

生育支持的政策瞄准——基于“初婚—生育孩次”递进模型的发现

国际经验表明,政策瞄准偏差是鼓励生育的家庭政策未能取得预期效果的主要原因之一。文章基于社会政策瞄准的分析框架,运用“初婚—生育孩次”递进模型和生育率弹性系数对中国生育支持政策进行瞄准分析;并以K省为例,深入剖析“初婚—生育孩次”递进率对总和生育率的影响及其社会阶层差异。研究发现：（1）现阶段20～29岁女性的初婚递进率对总体生育水平起主导性作用;（2）20～34岁女性的一孩递进生育率对生育水平的影响大于二孩及多孩递进生育率;（3）女性初婚和生育进度在不同社会阶层呈现分化趋势。当前中国各地的政策瞄准过度关注婚育进程的后端,存在瞄准偏差和低效问题。生育支持政策的重心应适当前移,瞄准对青年群体初婚和一孩生育的支持,重视对20～34岁不同社会经济特征的育龄人群提供针对性的政策支持。     

Immigration, education, and the future of the california workforce

In the decades after the second world war, California's highly educated workforce was a central part of the booming California economy, especially in the 1950s and 1960s when large numbers of migrants arrived from the Middle West and the East Coast. Now in the last decade of the twentieth century there is evidence that California's educational advantage may be shifting. The overall levels of education in California's workforce are decreasing relatively, with real implications for the future human capital of California. The data show lower education levels in California and a reversal of previous patterns when California's workforce was more educated than the nation as a whole. The implications for the future of California as a cutting edge economy are less clear, but it is possible that increasingly, California will be competing with other states for the fast-growing and well-paying jobs in the high technology sector. The future of the California workforce will be closely bound up with the education of the immigrant stock already in California and with the continuing flows from Mexico and Central America.     

Sexual spanking, the self, and the construction of deviance

Using interview and observation data from a group of consensual, heterosexual adults interested in sexual spanking, I describe members' sexual stories and stigma neutralization techniques. Sexual stories are situated within broader cultural contexts that help individuals construct meaning and identities. I describe group members' stories about their initial interest in sexualized spankings. Focusing on a specific event at one party, I show how these stories help to create scene-specific stigma neutralization techniques. Participants strive to differentiate themselves from sadomasochistic activities and to create normative behavioral expectations within their scenes. I conclude that all of this can ultimately be viewed as part of the complex sexual adaptations that people make.     

Living Arrangements of the Elderly in Fiji,Korea, Malaysia,and the Philippines

Using logit techniques and data from surveys of the elderly conducted in 1984 under the auspices of the World Health Organization, this article investigates socioeconomic, cultural, and demographic determinants of living arrangements of the elderly. Having a spouse or children with whom to live has important effects on living arrangements. The results provide only weak support, however, for hypotheses based on modernization theory and point to the need for detailed data on transitions in living arrangements and for information about the younger generation as well as the older generation, both of which are involved in deciding who lives with whom.     

On the dynamics of the age structure,dependency, and consumption

We examine the effects of population aging due to declining fertility and rising elderly life expectancy on consumption possibilities in the presence of intergenerational transfers. Our analysis is based on a highly tractable continuous-time overlapping generations model in which the population is divided into three groups (youth dependents, workers, and elderly dependents) and lifecourse transitions take place in a probabilistic fashion. We show that the consumption-maximizing response to greater longevity in highly developed countries is an increase in fertility. However, with larger transfer payments, the actual fertility response will likely be the opposite, leading to further population aging.     

Society,family, and gender in Santa Fe,New Granada,until the end of the colony

The author examines family structure in Santa Fe, the capital of New Granada, a Spanish colony that included Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, and Venezuela. The focus is on the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. He finds that social class structure was closely related to ethnic group and skin color, and that the sex ratio was biased toward women. Women also headed nearly 50% of all households. Data are mainly from the 1801 smallpox census.     

Sexual identity distress, social support, and the health of gay, lesbian, and bisexual youth

Sex researchers and mental health clinicians have long recognized that the stigma surrounding homosexuality plays an important role in shaping the social psychological adjustment of gay, lesbian, and bisexual (g/l/b) people. In recent years, researchers have suggested that sexual identity- related distress may influence the physical health status of g/l/b people, primarily because of the ways these self-related feelings and beliefs impact patterns of health-related behavior. This study examines the influence of sexual identity distress and social support on g/l/b youth's drug and alcohol use, psychological distress, and risky sexual behavior. The data come from a services research demonstration program conducted at the Indiana Youth Group, Inc., a g/l/b youth development agency based in Indianapolis, Indiana. Results indicate that sexual identity distress is strongly associated with psychological distress, less frequent use of alcohol, and using fewer types of illegal drugs. Being out to more people in one's support network, however, attenuates the severity of youth's sexual identity-related distress. Youth who report more support ties to g/l/b people indicate engaging in more frequent risky sexual behavior. The implications of these findings for theories of g/l/b youth's sexual identity development are discussed.     

Enclaves, language, and the location choice of migrants

Empirical studies in the migration literature have shown that enclaves (networks) negatively affect the language proficiency of migrants. Most of these studies do not address the choice of location as a function of language skills. Using data on Mexican migration to the US, we show that migrants choose smaller networks as their English language proficiency improves.

Retired women and volunteering: the good, the bad, and the unrecognized

In this article, we examine varied attitudes and practices toward volunteering in later life, as shared by a group of 40 retired women. We categorize women based on their engagement in retirement and label the categories according to societal expectations as follows: traditional volunteers as "good," nonvolunteers as "bad," and caregiving volunteers as "unrecognized." Using critical gerontology and a feminist framework, we juxtapose the lived experiences of retired women with a prevailing discourse on successful aging and civic engagement. We advocate for societal recognition of caregiving as a valuable form of volunteering, as well as the need to respect multiple ways in which older women experience and find meaning in later life.     

Media,The Public,and Freedom of the Press

Social Indicators Research - This article examines the diversification of the news media in Korea since the 1990s as a result of deregulation and democratization. It also examines the impact of...