对我国当前推迟退休年龄之说的质疑

随着我国老年型社会的到来和老龄化速度的加快 ,人口老龄化对社会经济的影响问题受到了极大的关注。目前我国学术界的一种观点认为 :由于我国老龄化的速度加快和人口平均预期寿命的延长 ,相应的老年人口负担加重 ,劳动力资源也必然减少 ,为此必须推迟退休年龄 ,才能适应老龄化社会发展的需要。依据这些理由提出推迟退休年龄有失偏颇 ,就我国当前情况而言 ,全面推迟退休年龄还不合时宜     

延迟退休年龄对居民收入分配的影响——基于异质性代理人的分析

延迟退休年龄是积极应对人口老龄化的重要举措,构建异质性代理人的动态一般均衡模型并使用数值模拟方法分析延迟退休年龄对居民收入分配的影响。研究结果表明,第一,延迟退休年龄缩小了居民收入分配差距。每延迟退休一年,居民收入分配的Gini系数平均降低17%。延迟退休年龄对居民收入分配影响的边际效应是递减的,居民收入分配Gini系数对延迟退休年龄的半弹性随延迟退休年龄的增加而减少。因此,延迟退休年龄有助于实现全体人民的共同富裕。较低的相对风险厌恶系数、较低的养老金替代率和较高的资本产出弹性对应较低的居民收入分配差距。第二,总消费随着延迟退休年龄的增加而增加。居民总消费对延迟退休年龄的半弹性平均为3.92%。较低的相对风险厌恶系数、较高的养老金替代率和较低的资本产出弹性对应较高的居民总消费。第三,延迟退休年龄增加了全体居民的福利。居民总福利对延迟退休年龄的半弹性平均为8.49%,较低的相对风险厌恶系数、较低的资本产出弹性和较高的养老金替代率对应较高的居民总福利和退休居民的平均福利。本文采用的方法对于研究居民收入分配有一定的借鉴意义,研究结论对于理解延迟退休年龄对居民收入分配的影响提供了一个新的视角,...     

基于灰色关联分析的我国退休年龄影响因素研究

我国现行退休年龄政策已不能适应社会的发展,亟待进行合理规划.本文用2000~2013年的统计数据,采用灰色关联分析方法,对影响退休年龄的9大因素进行灰色关联分析,包括经济变量因素分析与非经济变量因素分析.研究结果发现,居民消费价格指数的影响最为重要,人均受教育年限、我国城市人口就业率、在岗职工人均工资及人口自然增长率排在其后.国家在推行延迟退休政策时应当关注这些问题,并制定和执行配套措施,以确保延迟退休政策顺利推行.     

延迟退休对职工效用最大化的影响——基于“S”型效用函数的分析

"十四五"规划提出"实施渐进式延迟法定退休年龄",如何使延迟退休政策被大众广泛接受是我国养老保险制度改革的重点问题。基于个人效用最大化原理,结合我国现行养老保险制度和前景价值函数中的"S"型效用函数,构建关于工资收入、养老保险缴纳费用、养老金财富和闲暇时间的综合效用模型,从性别、闲暇偏好、工资收入水平、利率、参保年龄、养老金个人缴费率六个方面确定个人效用最大化的退休年龄,并结合我国当前国情,对延迟退休政策提出针对性的建议。研究结果表明:不同退休年龄下的个人效用函数是关于退休年龄的"先大幅上升,后缓慢下降"曲线。男性参保职工于63岁退休获得效用最大值,而女性参保职工于60岁退休获得效用最大值,且二者最优退休年龄并不会随工资收入水平的改变而改变,工资收入水平只会对参保职工获得的效用绝对值产生影响,工资收入水平越高,参保职工获得效用值越大。此外,若闲暇偏好越低、利率越低、参保年龄越大、养老保险个人缴费率越低,则参保职工的最优退休年龄就越大。总体而言,只有考虑性别因素、给予延迟退休政策适当的弹性操作空间、改进养老保险计发办法、创造更好的老年就业环境,才能使延迟退休政策更好地推行。     

我国退休年龄延迟设计研究

本文针对当前我国＂未富先老＂、人口红利对经济增长的促进作用减弱及因人口老龄化进程加速而引起的社会养老负担过重等问题,依据人均预期寿命、劳动者参加工作的初始年龄和不同类型劳动对人体体力要求的差异等,就从事不同类型劳动的退休年龄标准进行了延迟设计。然后以国际上自我养老负担系数的合理取值范围为标准,就延迟设计方案的自我养老负担系数进行了测算。结果表明：延迟设计方案的退休年龄标准在当前及未来较短时期比较适合我国国情。但随着人均预期寿命的增长,也要结合自我养老负担系数的合理取值范围对退休年龄逐步调整,才能有效解决我国因人口老龄化逐步加深而引起的各种社会经济问题。本文试图为我国调整退休年龄标准提出可供借鉴的依据,进而有效地解决我国因人口老龄化逐步加深而对社会经济发展造成的负面影响。     

人口老龄化背景下的推迟退休年龄策略研究

在人口老龄化进程加快的情况下,为改善我国城镇养老金收支均衡状况,有必要对养老金替代率、退休年龄等进行参数改革。利用"五普"数据,对未来50年我国城镇人口老龄化状况进行预测;考察人口老龄化对城镇社会统筹养老金收支均衡的影响;设计推迟退休年龄的几种方案,进行了静态比较分析,并给出了相应的政策建议。     

缓解老龄化压力,推迟退休有效吗?

虽然经合组织(OECD)国家在长期低生育水平下,已经出现严重老龄化和劳动力短缺等问题,但多数国家的实际退休年龄都低于法定退休年龄,老龄人口劳动参与率普遍较低,单纯依靠推迟退休年龄并不必然缓解老龄化和养老金支出危机。通过理论模型对导致老年人选择提前退休的经济社会因素的分析,认为要有效发挥法定退休年龄的作用,提高老龄劳动参与率,还需更多改革,如规定较低的提前退休年金,鼓励人力资本投资,设计弹性退休年龄等。中国目前应设法提高老龄劳动参与率,而非推迟退休年龄。     

人口年龄结构变动下的最优退休年龄动态模型构建与应用——以陕西省为例

文章主要以社会福利最大化为基本前提,假定社会福利最大化条件下的退休年龄为最优平均退休年龄,通过建立人口年龄结构变动下的最优退休年龄动态模型,以陕西省人口数据和养老保险相关数据为基础,测算了社会福利最大化条件下的陕西省最优平均退休年龄。得出结论:满足社会福利最大化时,陕西省最优平均退休年龄将会从2010年的58.4岁,逐步提高到2020年的59.6岁,进而提高到2030年的61.3岁。     

平均预期寿命、健康工作寿命与延迟退休年龄

我国劳动者能健康工作多久?退休年龄究竟延迟到哪一岁最为合理?这关系着广大劳动者切身利益因而是非常重大的政策性问题。本研究采用生命表技术编制了我国2005和2010年分性别人口平均预期寿命、健康预期寿命、工作寿命及健康工作寿命表,然后从劳动力健康工作的视角提出我国延迟退休的合理目标年龄。研究发现,2005和2010年,我国男女健康工作寿命都分别接近62岁和58岁。该发现的重要政策启示在于:我国当前可适当延迟退休年龄,女性比男性延迟退休的空间大,男女65岁同龄退休的时机还未成熟,建议我国延迟退休的目标年龄应以男性62岁,女性58岁为上限;从生命周期角度对我国退休年龄进行国际比较,若按男性62岁,女性58岁为退休年龄上限执行,那么我国劳动力的退休生涯与工作寿命之比将接近发达国家的平均水平;从政策的操作层面来看,我国延迟退休应女先男后或女快男慢,并采取弹性退休制度逐步推迟退休年龄。     

人力资本投资周期视角的退休年龄延迟差异化研究

教育是人力资本投资的主要形式.由于教育形式的多样性及差异性,导致了人力资本投资的周期性和滞后性.受到人均寿命提高、平均受教育年限延长以及医疗保健投资费用增加等人力资本因素的影响,我国现行的退休制度使潜在的人力资源没有充分发挥效力就退出了劳动力市场,导致了人力资本的严重浪费.退休年龄延迟可以促进我国高素质劳动者人力资本的有效利用.基于此,文章运用人力资本投资理论,结合人力资本投资周期视角,从参与主体、实施措施以及保障措施三个方面提出退休年龄延迟的差异化思路.针对技能型劳动者和知识型劳动者分别提出渐进性的弹性退休政策和最低工作年限政策,以期为我国退休年龄延迟的实施提供理论依据.     

提高退休年龄与降低替代率：城镇职工基本养老金的财政支出研究

目前，中国法定退体年龄与最优退休年龄存在不同步的现象，所建最优退休年龄经济模型的结果表明人口死亡概率与最优退休年龄的动态经济规律。按照这个规律，中国目前应提高退休年龄。但通过对城镇职工的年龄预测及对其赡养率和缴费率的敏感性分析，笔者认为解决目前财政压力的关键是适当降低养老金替代率，而提高退休年龄应运步推行。     

Gender differences in retirement decisions in Hong Kong

The study of labor force participation at older ages and the process of retirement do not have a long tradition in Asia's newly developed societies. This study, based on telephone survey of 950 respondents, examines various socio-economic factors that would influence retirement decision among older workers in Hong Kong. The findings show that older men were more likely to participate in the labor force than older women. Interestingly, older workers, in particular older women, with pension were less likely to retire. Having a working spouse decreased the likelihood of retirement and older workers, in particular older women, living with married children were more likely to retire. Poor health also discourages the propensity to continue working at old age. These findings confirm that retirement entails much more than just a decision to stop work, and that there were gender differences in retirement decision. Finally, several policy challenges, with reference to elderly women, concerning older workers' labor force participation were discussed.     

Strategic HR Management with an Aging Workforce: Using Demographic Models to Determine Optimal Employment Policies

A key component of the strategic plan for any company is the determination of the optimal number of workers needed to produce the desired level of output. Unless workers of different ages have the same skills and productivity, managers must also decide on the best age structure of their workforce and adopt compensation and employment policies to achieve these objectives. Employer responses to the shifts in the demand for their output impact the age distribution of the workforce while employment and compensation policies influence age specific hiring, retention, and retirement rates. This paper examines how demographic models can be used to project the future age structure of a labor force. In addition, we describe how compensation policies can be used to alter trends in the age distribution of employees. Thus, employers can develop strategic plans for achieving the desired labor force.     

From new entries to retirement: The changing age composition of the U.S. male labor force by industry

The process whereby the age composition of an industry is formed appears to be largely a function of past rates of growth in employment; the social (or institutional) framework sets limits and affects the ensuing age composition but relatively little. The following types will illustrate this process. 1. Consider an industry which has increased considerably more rapidly in employment over several decades than has the total labor force. The rapid growth brings in a disproportionately large share of youth who are first entering the labor market; other younger workers move from slowly growing (or declining) industries. These movements add many more younger workers. On the other hand, there is little, if any, unemployment in the industry so that there are few pressures being exerted on the older workers to retire, and relatively few will retire. Under these circumstances the age composition will be younger than tliat of the entire male working force. 2. Consider an industry which has grown slowly, if at all, for some time. There will be comparatively fewer (in comparison with the first example) new entries and less mobility from other industries. The men already engaged in this industry will continue to work there; they gradually become older and are not counterbalanced by increasing numbers of young workers. Unemployment is likely to be higher, leading to a higher retirement rate. There are also likely to be large numbers of men a decade or two under the retirement age-the heritage of an "ancient" period when the industry had experienced significant increases in employment; these add pressure on the older men and more retire. The age composition of such an industry gradually veers toward the older side; it is considerably older than that of the entire male working force. At any given moment of time most industries will reflect variable past growth rates. For example, one industry may have a very large proportion of young workers because it grew very rapidly in employment only during the decade prior to the time of study (i.e., the time of a decennial census); another may have a large proportion in the middle ages reflecting very rapid growth two or three decades earlier, followed by very slow growth in the decade prior to the time of study; and so forth.In light of the foregoing analysis, it appears that technological change, as measured by average annual changes in output per worker, has little bearing on the age composition of an industry. Conversely, the latter probably does not affect changes in output per worker.     

Measuring years of inactivity,years in retirement,time to retirement,and age at retirement within the Markov model

Retirement-related concepts are treated as random variables within Markov process models that capture multiple labor force entries and exits. The expected number of years spent outside of the labor force, expected years in retirement, and expected age at retirement are computed—all of which are of immense policy interest but have been heretofore reported with less precisely measured proxies. Expected age at retirement varies directly with a person’s age; but even younger people can expect to retire at ages substantially older than those commonly associated with retirement, such as age 60, 62, or 65. Between 1970 and 2003, men allocated most of their increase in life expectancy to increased time in retirement, but women allocated most of their increased life expectancy to labor force activity. Although people can exit and reenter the labor force at older ages, most 65-year-old men who are active in the labor force will not reenter after they eventually exit. At age 65, the probability that those who are inactive will reenter the labor force at some future time is .38 for men and .27 for women. Life expectancy at exact ages is decomposed into the sum of the expected time spent active and inactive in the labor force, and also as the sum of the expected time to labor force separation and time in retirement.     

我国弹性退休年龄制度设计——基于美国相关制度的实践

弹性退休制度允许劳动者自由选择是否工作以及是否领取养老金。这一制度有着诸多优点。从美国的实践情况来看,该制度既鼓励了劳动者多劳多得,又使社保基金增收节支;既遏制了养老金领取者的贫富差距扩大,又确保老龄劳动者与年轻人展开公平竞争。当前,我国可以对达到退休年龄以后继续工作的劳动者采取中性政策,对延迟领取养老金的劳动者予以鼓励。     

退休年龄对劳动参与率的影响

自1951年以来。中国的退休政策并未随着平均寿命、经济发展等情况的变化做出大的改变。每年有成千上万的老年劳动者,在其仍有劳动意愿和劳动能力的情况下,因为政策的规定离开工作岗位。过低的退休年龄使得我国的劳动参与率被潜在的低估,如果调整现行退休政策,将修正劳动参与率、减少“人口负债”期问题、缓解未来养老金收支失衡压力和挤压劳动力市场。     

中国新企业年金替代率测算及其敏感性分析

企业年金在多支柱养老保险体系中发挥着越来越重要的作用。企业年金替代率是企业养老保险的一个重要指标。本文构建了一个测算企业年金替代率的现金流平衡模型。基于现金流平衡模型,我们对影响企业年金替代率的诸因素进行了敏感性分析。不同于大多数的以往研究方法,我们应用三状态Markov转换模型分析了年金基金投资收益率的长期走势。研究表明,逐步延长退休年龄或提供投资收益可以提高企业年金替代率。因此,应通过实施弹性退休制,改善企业年金资产的投资环境,实施更多的税收优惠政策,以及其他配套措施,以促进我国企业年金的可持续发展。