云南流动人口生育水平研究

本文利用2014年云南省流动人口动态监测调查数据,运用因素分解和标准化的方法,对农业和非农业流动育龄妇女的生育水平及其生育模式差异进行讨论分析,运用标准化的方法分别分析年龄结构标准化下的年龄别生育率和一般生育率。结果表明:农业流动育龄妇女的年龄结构有利于提高一般生育率,农业流动妇女的生育水平显著低于非农业流动妇女;婚姻构成(如有偶率、初婚年龄)和婚内生育率(生育控制)对生育率的影响都发挥了重要作用。     

再论队列平均子女数不能作为当前总和生育率的估计

近年国内生育率研究中不断出现以人口调查中35～39岁妇女的平均曾生子女数作为当前时期生育水平估计的做法.文章通过人口统计原理的讨论和实际统计结果证明,这种队列累计的平均子女数实际上反映的是一个队列多年积累的生育量,既不能反映当前真实的总和生育率,也不能进一步用来估计同一调查中的出生漏报程度.因此,在生育转变中用这类队列平均子女数作为当前真实生育水平估计在方法上是错误的,并将误导我们对当前生育形势的认识.     

利用初育年龄测度终身生育率的探索

理论上终身生育率是衡量妇女生育水平的理想指标,但由于时滞问题而难以运用;实践中采用的总和生育率用不同年龄妇女生育率加总进行替代,虽然简便易行,却存在一定偏差。与现有的利用总和生育率推算终身生育率的研究有别,本文尝试利用真实育龄妇女队列的初育年龄测度终身生育率。依据1950²011年育龄妇女的年龄别生育率数据,发现初育年龄与终身生育率之间具有显著的负相关关系并且具有较好的拟合效果。这表明,应用初育年龄可以及时提供妇女终身生育率的可靠信息。     

2000-2010年中国育龄妇女生育完成度变化分析

新中国成立以来,妇女不论在社会活动领域还是家庭领域的地位都有了质的变化。妇女可以参与各种政治、经济、文化娱乐等活动,有的妇女在家庭领域的地位甚至超过了丈夫。尽管妇女受教育程度提高了,但与男性相比还有一定的差距。有研究表明:受教育程度和生育水平呈负相关,尤其是母亲的受教育水平影响更显著。由于教育的影响,妇女的生育水平和生育时间都发生了很大的变化。文章利用最近两次中国人口普查数据来研究育龄妇女的生育年龄的完成度变化情况,并对中国目前TFR很低的现象做了解释,据此推断中国在未来几年的时间,总和生育率会在一定程度上呈上升的变化趋势,但不可能在短期内回升到更替水平。     

1990年以来中国人口出生水平变动及预测

人口出生水平取决于生育水平、 生育模式以及育龄妇女比重.文章利用1980—2010年进入生育期的妇女的初育年龄对其终身生育率进行预测,并据此测算1990年、2000年以及2010年三个人口普查年份的人口出生率,结果表明,这三个年份的出生率估计值均能够以较小的误差接近由总和生育率计算得到的人口出生率真实值.在此基础上,文章进一步解释了1990年以来中国人口出生水平持续下降以及近十年来始终处于低水平的现象,是由30岁以下的年轻育龄妇女的生育水平、 生育模式(标准化年龄别生育率)和占总人口比重共同下降所致.考虑到二孩政策的全面放开,文章还模拟了高、 中、 低三种预测情景下2011—2050年中国人口出生规模的变化,指出即使在文章设定的高生育水平方案下,人口出生规模也只能在短期内实现回升.因此,为促进未来人口出生数量渐进增加,保持人口长期均衡发展,生育政策的调整目标仍须适当提高.     

应用队列累计生育率分析我国生育水平变动趋势——兼与郭志刚教授讨论

本文对反映生育水平的两个基本指标——总和生育率和队列累计生育率进行分析,肯定多年来多个调查所得到的队列累计生育率的数据质量。尽管队列累计生育率反映的是"过去"而不是"当前"的实际生育水平,但历次调查所反映出的1990年代以来生育水平变化趋势是持续下降,并推断近几年的总和生育率已经下降到1.6以下。     

中国育龄妇女生育集中度变化分析——基于“五普”、“六普”数据

新中国成立以来,结束了上千年的封建制度给妇女带来的桎梏,妇女的社会地位有了明显的提升,具体表现在社会活动的参与率有了显著的提高,同时妇女在生育行为方面也发生了巨大的变化。本文利用最近两次中国人口普查数据来分析育龄妇女的生育集中度变化情况,并以此对中国目前TFR很低的现象做了解释,据此推断中国在未来几年的时间,总和生育率在一定程度上会呈上升的变化趋势,但不可能在短期内回升到更替水平。     

试论时期总和生育率、终身生育率与政策生育率的关系

通过对总和生育率(TFR)、终身生育率(CFR)与政策生育率(PFR)的概念及相关数据分析,论证总和生育率与政策生育率是完全不同的概念,不可直接比较。在特定条件下TFR、CFR和政策生育率会产生差异,在一个国家生育水平下降的历史时期,TFR必然小于当年49岁组女性的CFR;"超生率"、"未婚率"、"未育率"和"不孕率"的变化,决定了政策生育率与终身生育率的差异。借鉴日本经济与人口发展相关数据,可以相信由平均初婚年龄推迟、女性有偶率下降导致的生育水平下降很可能成为对我国人口均衡发展的最大潜在威胁。因此,当前以及今后相当的时期内,我国的政策生育率应高于1.8。     

中国省级2000年育龄妇女总和生育率评估

本研究构造了人口流动强度和城镇化指数分布法对全国漏报的 5 38 65万多 0岁人口进行地区 (省、直辖市、自治区 )分配 ,将漏报出生回填后 ,估计得出各地区 2 0 0 0年妇女总和生育率。估计结果显示通过漏报回填可以基本展现各地区妇女真实生育水平 ;各地区生育水平差异较大 ,还有1 3个省区超过更替水平。     

中国60岁以上老年妇女生育状况研究

老年妇女生育指的是既往生育史,属于历史人口学研究范畴,在生育率统计分析中占有重要地位。通过对某一批老年妇女完全生育率观察值的分析,直接描述出该批妇女经历年龄的生育水平和特点,并用以与不同时期、非同批妇女生育率和同批妇女不同时期生育率的比较研究,探索生育率变动的基本规律。本文以“中国60岁以上老年人口抽样调查”资料为依据,对60岁以上老年妇女生育状况作一初步分析。一、老年妇女生育率的基本特点生育率就其发展状态而言,大体可分为自然生育率和抑制生育率两类。所谓自然生育     

"Mummies and babies" and friends and lovers in Lesotho

This paper examines an institutionalized friendship among adolescent girls and young women in southern Africa. Lesotho's economy is based on migrant male labor which leaves the women dependent on male earnings or subsistence from the land, and also creates unstable marital relations. Young girls in the modern schools develop close relationships, called "mummy-baby," with slightly older girls. Sexual intimacy is an important aspect of these relationships. Mummy-baby relationships not only provide emotional support prior to marriage, but also a network of support for married and unmarried women in new towns or schools, either replacing or accompanying heterosexual bonds.     

Understanding and Using Mediators and Moderators

Mediation and moderation are two theories for refining and understanding a causal relationship. Empirical investigation of mediators and moderators requires an integrated research design rather than the data analyses driven approach often seen in the literature. This paper described the conceptual foundation, research design, data analysis, as well as inferences involved in a mediation and/or moderation investigation in both experimental and non-experimental (i.e., correlational) contexts. The essential distinctions between the investigation of mediators and moderators were summarized and juxtaposed in an example of a causal relationship between test difficulty and test anxiety. In addition, the more elaborate models, moderated mediation and mediated moderation, the use of structural equation models, and the problems with model misspecification were discussed conceptually.

Complementary and alternative medicine: Interaction and communication between midwives and women

BackgroundMany pregnant women use complementary and alternative medicine. Although midwives are often supportive, how they communicate with women about the safe use of these therapies has received limited research attention.AimThe aim of this study was to explore how midwives interact with women regarding use of complementary and alternative medicine during pregnancy.MethodsWe utilised grounded theory methodology to collect and analyse data. Twenty-five midwives who worked in metropolitan hospitals situated in Melbourne, Australia, participated in the study. Data were collected from semi structured interviews and non-participant observations, over an 18-month period.FindingsHow midwives communicate about complementary and alternative medicine is closely associated with the meaning they construct around the woman's role in decisionmaking. Most aim to work in a manner consistent with the midwifery partnership model and share the responsibility for decisions regarding complementary and alternative medicine. However, although various therapies were commonly discussed, usually the pregnant woman initiated the dialogue. A number of contextual conditions such as the biomedical discourse, lack of knowledge, language barriers and workplace constraints, limited communication in some situations.ConclusionMidwives often interact with women interested in using CAM. Most value the woman's autonomy and aim to work in partnership. However, various contextual conditions restrain overt CAM communication in clinical practice.     

Injecting and Rejecting,Framing and Failing

This paper seeks to examine how female subjectivities are privileged by Canadian human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination discourse and, in turn, how homosexual male subjectivities are displaced. Employing a Critical Discourse Analysis approach, I analyze selected HPV vaccination (HPVV) promotional materials, and depict the discursive strategies which privilege and exclude gendered subjectivities. My critical analysis is influenced by feminist linguistic works that seek to uncover the discursive constructions around sexuality, gender and identity, and the discursive strategies used to communicate ideas about sexual health risks and responsible citizenship. In addition, I adopt feminist theories of knowledge and power to rethink the discursive representations of some bodies and subjectivities as normal, and Others as unintelligible within HPVV discourse in today's neoliberal time.     

Beliefs and values and the sterilization decision

A decision-making framework based on the models of personal decision making developed by psychologists and economists and a methodology based on axiomatic conjoint measurement are used to explore individuals' beliefs and values regarding contraceptive sterilization. Particular emphasis is given to demonstrating a. that there exist individual differences in beliefs and values, b. that there exist differences in beliefs and values between persons who choose sterilization—either tubal ligation or vasectomy—and persons who choose non-sterilization contraceptive methods when no more children are wanted, and c. that the effect of beliefs and values on the sterilization decision is an interactive one. The methodology used is compared to that typically used in studying fertility- and health-related behaviors.This research was supported by grants HD-10802 and HD-14403 from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. The technical assistance of Doreen Victor and the editorial suggestions of Sarah Gaskill, Alice Healy, and two anonymous reviewers are greatly appreciated. This paper is Publication No. 253 of the Center for Research on Judgment and Policy, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0344. Requests for reprints should be sent to the Publications Librarian at the Center.     

Family Instability and College Enrollment and Completion

This research uses data from waves I and IV of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health, N = 9,631) to consider whether and how family instability in early or later childhood affects college enrollment and completion of a Bachelor’s degree by age 24. Explanatory factors include maternal selection into unstable unions, household resources available in adolescence, and adolescents’ academic achievement, behavior, and attitudes in high school. The association of later family instability with college enrollment and completion is largely explained by household resources in adolescence. The association of early family instability with college enrollment is partially explained by each set of factors, and its association with college completion, given enrollment, is explained by pre-existing maternal characteristics. The results demonstrate that early family instability has enduring consequences for eventual status attainment and that the mechanisms that connect family instability to educational outcomes vary by the timing of family structure change.     

The relationships between population and economy, and between population and education]

The relationship between population and economy is regarded seriously by China and other countries. This problem can be analyzed and studied under 2 aspects: 1) the influence of economic development on changes in population, and 2) the influence of population increases on economic development. Under the 1st aspect, improved living conditions, hygiene, and health care generally result in lowered mortality rates. Improved economic conditions in China also increased the birthrate and at the same time increased birth control among the people; the increased birthrate was due to more marriages after liberation. In economically advanced countries, due to high expenses in raising children, people tend to limit family sizes to 2 children/family. Under the 2nd aspect, population increases place strains on the food supply and nutritional requirements, especially when increases are too rapid. They also demand more educational resources and influence quality of education. As there are currently 210 million students in China, the quality of education suffers, particularly at the college level, since most of Chinese manpower, physical and financial resources are spent on primary and secondary education. In terms of housing, transportation, health care, and natural resources, they are all intimately related to and influenced by increases in population. Consequently, the living standard would be difficult to raise if population increases are too rapid. Since 1971, population increases have been incorporated into 5-yearly and later yearly national economic plans in China. The large Chinese population is a major obstacle in raising the Chinese economic level, hence a well-planned population control program is essential.     

Officer friendly and the tough cop:gays and lesbians navigate homophobia and policing

Despite attempts to expand social diversity, policing is still dominated by a white, masculine, heterosexual ethos. As a consequence, employment of lesbians and gay men as police officers may be especially threatening to members of this occupation. Within the context of potential hostility and homophobia, nontraditional officers must negotiate their contradictory presence on the police force. This paper investigates that negotiation. Using the Bem Sex Role Inventory and open-ended survey data from a sample of "out" and "closeted" gay and lesbian police officers, we ask how gays and lesbians manage their images as "good cops" in the face of gender norm violations associated with their sexual orientation. Our findings indicate that masculinity and femininity do not hold together in a cohesive, dichotomous manner for these officers. Instead, other characteristics that enhance policing are emphasized to support their occupational competence. These officers see themselves as "good cops." The gendered/sexualized character of their self-perceptions appears to matter less than the context of the job, more than for a comparison sample of heterosexual police officers. We conclude that although gay and lesbian officers see their sexuality as an occupational asset, they are also likely to work harder to prove themselves as crime fighters.