Population growth in the 1990s: Patterns within the United States 1

Census 2000 counted 281.4 million people in the UnitedStates, up 13.2 percentfrom the 1990 Census population of 248.7 million and thehighest percent increasefor the nation since the 1960s. Population growth in the1990s was not only higherthan in recent decades, it was also more geographicallywidespread, with more states,counties, and cities experiencing population gains.This paper examines populationgrowth during the 1990s for a variety of geographiclevels, including regions, divisions,states, metropolitan areas, counties and large cities.It then compares growth rates forthe 1990s with earlier decades to provide a historicalcontext to present-day trends inpopulation growth and decline. Finally, it discusses howdifferential population growthin recent decades has resulted in a new form of populationdistribution in the US.     

Study on Asia's growing cities: Republic of Korea

Focus in this discussion of migration and urbanization in Korea is on the following: historical perspective, implications of urban growth, urbanization trends and population distribution, patterns of migration, socioeconomic differences, and population redistribution policies. Korea is one of the most densely populated countries in Asia. Attempts to deal successfully with this phenomenon have met with varying degrees of success. Population concentration in the capital region continues to be a problem and has resulted in acute housing shortages, rapidly rising land prices, and on encroachment of urban land use into prime agricultural land surrounding the Seoul metropolitan region. Between 1955-1975 the population of Seoul increased from 1.6 million to 6.9 million for the capital city proper and to 9.4 million for its metropolitan region, including 5 satellite cities. This fringe spillover began in the late 1960s. The metropolitan area, comprising 4 cities around the fast growing city of Busan in the south, was formed in the mid-1970s with 3.2 million people. At this time major policy concerns center on the demographic phenomenon of continued concentrations in the Seoul and Busan regions. Problem issues which persist include nonfarm polarization, regional imbalance, diverging intra-sectoral incomes, and the aging rural labor force. Despite its nearness to the demilitarized zone, Seoul was and continues to be the focal point of economic and educational opportunity. The early 1960s brought little variation in migration and urbanization trends. In 1961 family planning and planned economic development were initiated but their impact came several years later. The overall urban growth rate dropped from 5.4 to 4.6% in the 1960-1966 period, and Seoul's pace of expansion slowed down to an annual average of 6.5%. Yet, the capital continued its urbanizing dominance. By 1975 Korea had 3 cities with a population of over 3 million: Seoul, Busan, and Daegu. In 1975 48.4% of the country's population of 34.7 million lived in the 35 cities designated as urban. Migrants comprised 21.5% of the 1970 national population, and the shift was rural-urban for almost 3/4 of them. Korea's industrial takeoff during the mid-1960s had 2 noteworthy effects: rising urban wages doubled rural income levels in real terms by 1970; and the exodus from the countryside was so intense that the rural population shrank between 1965-1970, for the 1st time since the Korean War. A successful family planning program had helped to lower the annual population growth rate to 1.9% by the late 1970s, but heavy out-migration from rural areas was the major factor.     

汉城城市发展的人口轨迹及对上海的启示

上海核心城区人口密度是世界第一位,由此带来交通拥挤、环境污染、能源短缺等一系列问题,成为阻碍上海经济发展的巨大瓶颈。汉城与上海同是亚洲城市,在自然资源、经济发展历程和产业结构方面都非常相似。从上个世纪60年代开始,汉城经历了经济的高速增长,其人口也随之迅猛上升,上海面临的经济瓶颈也正是汉城曾经或者现在正面临的问题。本文深入研究了汉城政府在面临相似经济增长瓶颈时,为抑制人口增长所采取的各种手段,包括迁都、限制中心地区工业发展、建造新城等,对其政策动机和效果进行相应的分析评价,并比较分析了汉城人口与经济增长之间的相关关系,借鉴其经验教训来解决上海中心城区拥挤问题,认为适当减少上海中心城区人口会有利于上海经济的发展,并在此基础上制定合理的城市发展策略,以实现上海的持续健康稳定发展。     

Population aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: The effects of development on the elderly

This paper describes the demographic trends in the elderly population in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1960 to 2020 using United Nations data and projections. The largest increases in the number of elderly in the 1980 to 2000 period will occur in South Asia and Africa. Each area is expected to increase approximately 87% in the number of persons aged 60 and over. During this period, Sub-Saharan Africa's elderly population will increase 82%, and is expected to increase 93% between 2000 and 2020, surpassing the total population increase during the latter period.Following the four perspectives Treas and Logue (1986) identified that may influence development policies and programs in developing countries, the Sub-Saharan African situation was analyzed in regard to social security, pension schemes, government policy, and institutional changes in the economy, education, health, and the family. Implications are discussed.I would like to extend my appreciation to the following organizations for providing financial support, substantive assistance, and/or administrative cooperation: The Department of Sociology, Kansas State University; The Rockefeller Foundation; The School of Social Work, University of Zimbabwe; and, the Zimbabwe Association of Pension Funds. However, the author takes full responsibility for any errors or misinterpretations.     

陕西未来人口发展趋势分析

自上世纪70年代大力开展计划生育以来,陕西在控制人口增长方面取得了较为显著的成绩,人口生育率进入到低生育水平时期。进入“十一五”．陕西制定了国民经济和社会发展计划,提出到2020年全省总人口控制在4050万以内．确保人均国内生产总值达到3500美元。本文将依据2005年1％人口抽样调查资料,采用年龄移算法．对陕西省2006-2030年的人口发展规模、人口生育率、人口增长率、人口年龄构成变化、育龄妇女变化等进行科学准确的测算。提出了在低生育水平下．人口与计划生育工作出现的新情况、新问题,是构建社会主义和谐社会、落实科学发展观大环境下人口与计划生育工作者面临的新的机遇和挑战。     

人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应--论中国增长可持续性的人口因素

人口转变是挑战中国经济持续增长的一个重要因素.在这个过程中,个人的生命周期和代际更替之间的相互叠加,通过劳动供给、储蓄和科技进步等渠道对长期经济增长施加影响.本文分析表明,人口转变使得中国从20世纪60年代中期开始享受人口红利,并一直持续到2015年前后.为了迎接人口老龄化冲击,中国需要通过扩大就业、加快人力资本积累和建立适合于中国国情的可持续的养老保障模式三条途径来充分挖掘未来潜在的人口红利,推动中国经济持续增长.     

老年残疾问题及其社会政策思考——基于第二次残疾人抽样调查广东数据分析

人口老龄化快速发展致使老年残疾人口快速增加,改变了残疾人口结构和残疾人社会保障与服务需求,老年残疾问题凸显为重要社会问题。本文利用第二次全国残疾人抽样调查数据。分析了老年残疾人的分布状况、生活状况、残疾状况、康复服务与需求状况,指出残疾老年人经济贫困而社会保障不足。本文从社会保障、社会服务、社会救助等层面提出了完善老年残疾人社会政策的若干建议。     

西藏人口老龄化现状与发展趋势预测

人口老龄化是世界人口发展面临的共同问题。随着生育率的下降和人均预期寿命的延长,西藏的人口老龄化问题逐渐显露出来．通过对西藏自治区2010年人口普查资料的分析发现．虽然西藏整体尚未进入老龄化社会,但个别民族已经成为典型的老年型人口．局部地区也呈现出老龄化形态。西藏人口老龄化具有老年人口以藏族为主、世居民族老龄化程度高、老龄化程度地区发展不平衡等特点。尽管西藏还处在老龄化的初期,但应对老龄化问题必须具有战略性和超前性．鉴于此．本文对西藏未来40年人口老龄化的发展趋势进行了预测,并结合西藏的实际情况．提出探索应对西藏人口老龄化的途径。     

Cuba: the demography of revolution

Cuba's post-revolution demographic trends, especially in regard to fertility and emigration, and the causes and consequences of these trends, were examined using available statistical data. The authors maintain that both fertility and emigration trends were highly infuenced by economic factors. The trends are described in the context of the social and economic changes instituted by the revolutionary government. Government policies were aimed at 1) eradicating inequalities in housing, income, education, and health; 2) improving the status of women; and 3) upgrading the living standards of the rural population. Government policies did alleviate many social problems and greatly improved the health and educational status of the population; however, these policies had a marked adverse effect on economic performance. The demographic transition began in Cuba earlier than in most other developing countries and it began long before the 1959 revolution. These earlier changes must be taken into account when assessing the impact of post-revolution policies on demographic trends. Cuba's birthrate declined from 26-14.8/1000 population between 1959-1979 and the total fertility rate declined from 3.7-1.9 between 1970-1978; however, during the 1960s there was a baby boom and the birth rate for 1963 exceeded 35/1000 population. The baby boom was largely a response to the temporary improvement in economic conditions which occurred shortly after the revolution. The decline in fertility during the 1970s was due in part to the increased availability of abortion and contraceptive services and to a decline in the marriage rate; however, Cuba's deteriorating economy was also a major contributing factor. The baby boom of the 1960s is negativley affecting the current economy of the country. Individuals born during the baby boom are entering adulthood and are contributing toward Cuba's current unemployment problems. Prior to the revolution, Cuba experienced a high rate of in-migration. Immediately after the revolution this pattern was reversed and between 1959-1980 more than 800,000 Cubans emigrated. Most of these emigrants went to the U.S. A large proportion of the earlier emigrants were members of the upper and middle socioeconomic classes. Recent emigrants were more evenly representative of all segments of Cuba's population. The socioeconomic characteristics of the emigrants are described and their adjustment in the U.S. is discussed. Tables provide statistical data on Cuba's demographic trends.     

Early traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Bulgaria: A joint analysis of marital and non-marital union formation, 1960–2004

We explore trends in first-union formation in Bulgaria from 1960, using data from the national Gender and Generations Survey of 2004. We analyse jointly the transition into cohabitation and directly into marriage. The standardized marriage rate falls dramatically from the early 1980s; the corresponding rate of entry into cohabitation has already increased from the early 1960s but (surprisingly) falls moderately toward the end of our period. Cohabitation also tends to last progressively longer in more recent periods. The analysis shows that a pregnancy leads to a dramatic increase in the rate of both kinds of union formation: the increase is by a factor of almost 20 for marriage formation and about 10 for entry into cohabitation, ceteris paribus. Our findings suggest that, in Bulgaria at least, some manifestations of the Second Demographic Transition can be detected as early as the 1980s.     

Early traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Bulgaria: a joint analysis of marital and non-marital union formation, 1960-2004

We explore trends in first-union formation in Bulgaria from 1960, using data from the national Gender and Generations Survey of 2004. We analyse jointly the transition into cohabitation and directly into marriage. The standardized marriage rate falls dramatically from the early 1980s; the corresponding rate of entry into cohabitation has already increased from the early 1960s but (surprisingly) falls moderately toward the end of our period. Cohabitation also tends to last progressively longer in more recent periods. The analysis shows that a pregnancy leads to a dramatic increase in the rate of both kinds of union formation: the increase is by a factor of almost 20 for marriage formation and about 10 for entry into cohabitation, ceteris paribus. Our findings suggest that, in Bulgaria at least, some manifestations of the Second Demographic Transition can be detected as early as the 1980s.     

Trends in Functional and Activity Limitations among Chinese Oldest‐Old, 1998 to 2008

China has the world's largest oldest‐old population, but information on trends in late‐life disability is lacking. We use data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey for 1998 to 2008 to determine whether prevalence of limitations with physical functions and daily activities has changed recently among the Chinese population aged 80 to 105 and, if so, to investigate the factors associated with the change. We find that prevalence of need for assistance with activities of daily living and inability to independently conduct instrumental activities of daily living declined substantially. Males did not experience improvement in ability to carry out underlying physical functions over the same period, but females did. Variables associated with trends in one or more of these outcomes were adequacy of medical care as a child, childhood hunger, father's occupation in agriculture, main occupation before age 60 in agriculture, adequacy of current medical care, and body weight.     

Rising Mortality in Hungary

Although Hungary is not alone in Eastern Europe in experiencing a rising death rate during recent years, this adverse development would seem to have progressed further there than in neighbouring socialist countries, with the possible exception of the Soviet Union. The Hungarian death rate has been rising since the mid-1960s in part because the population was ageing but, more significantly from the health point of view, because of a real increase in mortality among certain sections of the population. The age-specific death rates of males aged 15 and over were all higher in 1980 than in the mid-1960s, the increase being particularly marked for the age group 30–59; moreover, women aged 30–59 are also now beginning to display the same characteristic. In the paper the individual contributions of the various causes of death to these trends are examined and some of the factors that are thought to have enhanced the risk of dying are outlined.     

人口老龄化、人口增长与经济增长——来自中国省际面板数据的实证证据

利用一个包含人力资本的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,从索洛增长理论入手,分析人口老龄化和人口增长率对经济增长的影响,理论模型的推理结果表明人口老龄化和人口增长对经济增长均产生不利影响。再根据理论模型的结果构造了人口老龄化和人口增长影响经济增长的实证模型,收集和使用中国1990～2008年的省级面板数据对理论模型的推理结果进行实证检验,证实了理论模型的推理结果。实证研究还表明:(1)初始的人均GDP对经济增长的影响为负,说明中国的区域经济发展出现了条件收敛的情形;(2)人力资本投资、储蓄率和劳动参与率对经济增长有着显著的正向促进作用。     

上海市人口老龄化：现状、影响及对策思考

人口老龄化已成为当今世界各国经济发展过程面临的共同性话题,就上海而言．未来上海市人口老龄化带来的影响已逐渐凸显,人口老龄化带来的养老金匮乏,劳动力不足以及社区为老服务发展滞后的矛盾已开始成为制约上海市经济发展的瓶颈,老龄化带来的影响将在未来很长一段时间内长期存在．缓解人口老龄化带来的影响以及寻求可行性办法解决老龄化人口的赡养问题已成为政府和社会必须要解决的问题。     

What Happened to the Society of Leisure? Of the Gap Between the “Haves” and “Have Nots” (Canadian Time Use and Well-Being Trends)

Canadian time use trends of the past 30 years are examined, using General Social Survey data collected by Statistics Canada in 1981, 1986, 1992, 1998, 2005, and 2010. The article analyses changes in the allocation of time to paid work, domestic work, personal needs, and free time, as well as accompanying changes in perceived time pressure and subjective well-being. The article addresses four questions: (1) Do objectively measured time use trends support optimistic forecasts of the 1960s that transition to post-industrial societies is accompanied by substantial gains of free time? (2) Did the time use changes of the past 30 years affect different population and lifecycle groups evenly or asymmetrically? (3) Is there an accord or discord between the objective measures of time use and subjective feelings of time pressure? (4) What are the emotional, and socio-political implications of the observed time use trends?     

Some problems with the development of the population theory since the founding of the People's Republic of China]

Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the development of the population theory has experienced some setbacks. It is important to learn lessons from the past and establish a socialist population theory based on science. During the 1st 30 years of the People's Republic of China, the development of a population theory can be divided into 3 stages: 1) stage one was from 1949 to 1957 -- belief in population control on the basis of sociology; 2) stage two was from the late 1950s to early 1960s -- represented by Mr. Ma Yinchu's "New Population Theory" and the theory of the opposing side; and 3) stage Three began after the 1960s. Throughout the 1960s, studies of population theory remained stagnant, and no progress in this field was possible. In the 1970s, especially since the downfall of the "Gang of Four," the development of a population theory has entered a new stage. 3 problems with the development of the population theory discussed by the author are: 1) an evaluation of Comrade Mao Zedong's thoughts on population, 2) the division of different schools in population theory, 3) the different periods in the development of the population theory since 1949. Mao Zedong did change his thoughts on population control, but he was in favor of family planning and supported studies in population theory. Besides Ma Yinchu, Chin Da, Fei Xiaotong, Wu Jingchao and others also had their own population theories. The author emphasizes the contributions made by Mao Zedong and the Communist Party in the development of a population theory. New accomplishments and experience are expected with the downfall of the "Gang of Four."     

The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections

This paper examines the forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections produced from the 1960s to the early 2000s. As well as total populations, the accuracy of the following is assessed: age-sex-specific populations, the Total Fertility Rate, life expectancy at birth and net international migration. It is shown that forecasts of the 1960s and 70s were the most inaccurate; forecasts of the 1980s and later proved to be much more reliable. The paper goes on to take an alternative perspective on population forecast error through the use of an adapted percentage error measure which accounts for offsetting errors in births, deaths, net migration and the jump-off population. This measure also permits an assessment of the relative contributions of the components of demographic change to overall inaccuracy. It is shown that errors in forecasting net international migration have generally contributed most to inaccuracy followed by births and then deaths and jump-off error. ABS projections of total population are also compared to those produced using a simple naïve model. The paper concludes by arguing that the new error measure could prove valuable in other studies of population forecast accuracy.     

[An analysis of population growth during the Seventh Five-Year Plan period].]

Population trends in China during the period of the Seventh Five-Year Plan (from 1986 to 1990) are analyzed. It is noted that, because of the high fertility rates prevalent during the 1960s, an increase in the birth rate following 1986 was to be expected. The author considers the cumulative effect of this change in fertility, the trend toward earlier marriage, and the increase in internal, primarily rural-urban, migration. Some possible measures to control population growth in these circumstances are enumerated.     

北京市流动人口数量变动历史趋势分析

本文探讨了北京市流动人口规模变动的历史过程.研究结果表明北京市流动人口规模受到政府政策和城市经济形势的明显影响在政策鼓励和经济发展迅速时,流动人口规模就大而且增长迅速.反之,则其规模小而且迅速减少虽然政策对流动人口有着显著的影响作用,但其影响作用不是无限的;同时,流动人口的增长也必须有一个合理的限度,而不能盲目发展.由此决定了对"流动人口"进行管理的基本思路是既不能盲目限制和排斥,又不能任其发展,听之任之.