CORRUPTION AND GROWTH UNDER WEAK IDENTIFICATION

The goal of this paper is to revisit Paolo Mauro's influential paper on corruption and growth focusing on the strength of his results under weak identification. The instrument used in his original paper is found to be “weak” as defined by the literature on weak instruments. Our results suggest that there is a high probability that the parameters of interest are locally almost unidentified. We also investigate other instruments commonly used in the corruption literature and obtain similar results. After identifying an instrument with sufficient strength, we fail to reject a zero effect of corruption on investment and economic growth. (JEL C31, D73)     

The Bordes-LeBreton exceptional case

Bordes and LeBreton have found a set D of weak orderings of X that includes all linear (strong) orderings of X but where there exists a social welfare function f on D ^N satisfying all of Arrow's (non-domain) conditions. In this paper we characterize all such D and f possibilities.     

Generating random weak orders and the probability of a Condorcet winner

We present an algorithm for generating a random weak order of m objects in which all possible weak orders are equally likely. The form of the algorithm suggests analytic expressions for the probability of a Condorcet winner both for linear and for weak preference orders. Received: 6 April 2000/Accepted: 31 January 2001     

Mixed refinements of Shapley's saddles and weak tournaments

We investigate refinements of two solutions, the saddle and the weak saddle, defined by Shapley (1964) for two-player zero-sum games. Applied to weak tournaments, the first refinement, the mixed saddle, is unique and gives us a new solution, generally lying between the GETCHA and GOTCHA sets of Schwartz (1972, 1986). In the absence of ties, all three solutions reduce to the usual top cycle set. The second refinement, the weak mixed saddle, is not generally unique, but, in the absence of ties, it is unique and coincides with the minimal covering set. Received: 14 August 1998/Accepted: 12 November 1999     

CAN SUBGAME PERFECT EQUILIBRIUM THREATS FOSTER COOPERATION? AN EXPERIMENTAL TEST OF FINITE‐HORIZON FOLK THEOREMS

This paper considers extended prisoners' dilemma games in which a second pure strategy equilibrium in the stage game allows for mutual cooperation in all but the last round of the finitely repeated game as an equilibrium outcome. We distinguish a strict and a weak extension of the prisoners' dilemma game in a long and a short horizon treatment. A comparison with the corresponding finitely repeated prisoners' dilemma games shows that the strict additional equilibrium increases cooperation rates while the weak does not. This result is robust to the variation of the time horizon. (JEL C73, C91)     

INSTITUTIONS,HOUSEHOLD CREDIT COMPOSITION,AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE

We show that the negative effect of household credit growth on subsequent economic growth documented in the recent literature is not the same across countries. The effect is stronger in countries with weak institutions where the fraction of consumer credit in total household credit is greater. That is an important nuance as consumer credit is a sizable part of household credit in many emerging markets and its rapid buildup should be observed with the same caution as a rapid buildup in housing credit. (JEL G21, E32, E44)     

The structure of coalitional power under probabilistic voting procedures

We consider probabilistic voting procedures which map each feasible set of alternatives and each utility profile to a social choice lottery over the feasible set. It is shown that if we impose: (i) a probabilistic collective rationality condition known as regularity; (ii) probabilistic counterpart of Arrow's independence of irrelevant alternatives and citizens' sovereignty; (iii) a probabilistic positive association condition called monotonicity; then the coalitional power structure under a probabilistic voting procedure is characterized by weak random dictatorship. Received: 1 March 1999/Accepted: 21 May 2001     

Single-peaked preferences with several commodities

We consider the problem of allocating m commodities among n agents with single-peaked preferences. When m≥2 and n=2 any strategy-proof and efficient solution is dictatorial. We propose an extension of the Uniform Rule that (in the two-agents case) is the only one that satisfies strategy-proofness, envy-freeness, and a weak requirement related to efficiency. Alternatively, the envy-freeness property may be replaced by weak-anonymity. Received: 7 November 1997/Accepted: 1 August 2000     

A Note on the Separability Principle in Economies with Single-Peaked Preferences

We consider the problem of allocating an infinitely divisible commodity among a group of agents with single-peaked preferences. A rule that has played a central role in the analysis of the problem is the so-called uniform rule. Chun (2001) proves that the uniform rule is the only rule satisfying Pareto optimality, no-envy, separability, and Ω-continuity. We obtain an alternative characterization by using a weak replication-invariance condition, called duplication-invariance, instead of Ω-continuity. Furthermore, we prove that the equal division lower bound and separability imply no-envy. Using this result, we strengthen one of Chun’s (2001) characterizations of the uniform rule by showing that the uniform rule is the only rule satisfying Pareto optimality, the equal division lower bound, separability, and either Ω-continuity or duplication-invariance.     

INEFFICIENCY AS A STRATEGIC DEVICE IN GROUP CONTESTS AGAINST DOMINANT OPPONENTS

Contests between groups are prone to intra‐group externalities (free‐riding). Yet, costless incentive schemes that entirely avoid free‐riding within a group might be undesirable, both individually and socially. In contests between two groups, a relatively weak (i.e., small or unproductive) group will optimally not implement them because they compound differences in strength between groups. If the groups are of relatively similar strengths, they are both worse off when they rein in their intra‐group externalities compared to a situation where they do not. If groups' strengths differ sufficiently, the relatively strong group benefits at the expense of the relatively weak one. (JEL Z13, D72, N40, D74)     

The number of weak orderings of a finite set

The number of Arrovian constitutions, when N agents are to rank n alternatives, is p(n) ^{p(n) N} , where p(n) is the number of weak orderings of n alternatives. For n≤15, p(n) is the nearest integer to n!/2(log2) ^{n +1}, the dominant term of a series derived by contour integration of the generating function. For large n, about n/17 additional terms in the series suffice to compute p(n) exactly. Received: 29 May 1995 / Accepted: 22 May 1997     

Aggregation of coarse preferences

We consider weak preference orderings over a set A _n of n alternatives. An individual preference is of refinement?≤n if it first partitions A _n into ? subsets of `tied' alternatives, and then ranks these subsets within a linear ordering. When ?<n, preferences are coarse. It is shown that, if the refinement of preferences does not exceed ?, a super majority rule (within non-abstaining voters) with rate 1− 1/? is necessary and sufficient to rule out Condorcet cycles of any length. It is argued moreover how the coarser the individual preferences, (1) the smaller the rate of super majority necessary to rule out cycles `in probability'; (2) the more probable the pairwise comparisons of alternatives, for any given super majority rule. Received: 29 June 1999/Accepted: 25 February 2000     

LEADERSHIP BY EXAMPLE IN THE WEAK‐LINK GAME

We investigate the effects of leadership in a four‐player weak‐link game. A weak‐link game is a coordination game with multiple Pareto‐ranked Nash equilibria. Because the more efficient equilibria involve a degree of strategic uncertainty groups typically find it difficult to coordinate on more efficient equilibria. We wanted to see whether leadership by example, in the form of one player acting publicly before the rest of the group, could help groups do better. Our results suggest that leadership can increase efficiency but is far from being a guarantee of success. Specifically, in a significant number of groups we observed successful leadership and increased efficiency, but in most groups efficiency was low despite the efforts of leaders. We did not find any difference between voluntary leaders and leaders that are randomly assigned. (JEL C72, H41)     

Consistency, dummy and independence of irrelevant strategies for strategic games

The relationships between the consistency (CONS) principle and two other axioms, dummy (DUM) and independence of irrelevant strategies (IIS) for solution concepts on families of strategic form games are studied. If a solution satisfies DUM and IIS, then it also satisfies CONS (Peleg and Tijs 1996). The converse of this proposition is not true: CONS implies neither DUM nor IIS as shown in two simple examples, using the concept of coalition-proof Nash equilibrium. The axiom of weak dummy (WDUM) is introduced. WDUM, along with IIS, implies CONS. Moreover, CONS implies WDUM. Received: 13 August 1998/Accepted: 19 January 1999     

A note on social choice theory without the Pareto principle

This paper was originally submitted to Journal of Economic Theory and was accepted. After presenting it at the first meeting of the society for social choice and welfare in Caen, France, we were informed by Professor Bernard Monjardet that a weak version of our main result (Proposition 1) had been proved in Y. Murakami's book, Logic and Social Choice, Routledge and Kegan Paul, London, 1968. We later voluntarily withdrew the paper from JET even though the editor was still willing to publish it on the ground that it would do the profession a service by making more people aware of a simple yet fundamental result in social choice theory. Instead we decide to submit this paper to Social Choice and Welfare, hoping that it will reach the intended readers more effectively.     

The replacement principle in bargaining

We investigate the implications of the principle of welfare-domination under preference-replacement or replacement in the context of bargaining. It requires that changes in the preferences of some agents, unaccompanied by changes in the resources, should affect all of the agents whose preferences have not changed in the same direction: all gain or all lose together. We begin with investigating the logical relations between replacement and two monotonicity axioms, weak monotonicity and population monotonicity. Then, we establish characterizations of the Kalai–Smorodinsky and egalitarian solutions on the basis of replacement. On the other hand, we obtain impossibility results if Pareto optimality and replacement are imposed together with either strong individual rationality or symmetry. This work was supported by the Brain Korea 21 Project in 2003. I am grateful to William Thomson, Hyungjun Kim, a referee, and an associate editor for their valuable comments.

---

A MONETARY BUSINESS CYCLE MODEL FOR INDIA

A New Keynesian monetary business cycle model is constructed to study why monetary transmission in India is weak. Our models feature banking and financial sector frictions as well as an informal sector. The predominant channel of monetary transmission is a credit channel. Our main finding is that base money shocks have a larger and more persistent effect on output than an interest rate shock, as in the data. The presence of an informal sector hinders monetary transmission. Contrary to the consensus view, financial repression in the form of a statutory liquidity ratio and administered interest rates, does not weaken monetary transmission. (JEL E31, E32, E44, E52, E63)     

Consistency in one-sided assignment problems

One-sided assignment problems combine important features of two well-known matching models. First, as in roommate problems, any two agents can be matched and second, as in two-sided assignment problems, the division of payoffs to agents is flexible as part of the solution. We take a similar approach to one-sided assignment problems as Sasaki (Int J Game Theory 24:373–397, 1995) for two-sided assignment problems, and we analyze various desirable properties of solutions including consistency and weak pairwise-monotonicity. We show that for the class of solvable one-sided assignment problems (i.e., the subset of one-sided assignment problems with a non-empty core), if a subsolution of the core satisfies [Pareto indifference and consistency] or [invariance with respect to unmatching dummy pairs, continuity, and consistency], then it coincides with the core (Theorems 1 and 2). However, we also prove that on the class of all one-sided assignment problems (solvable or not), no solution satisfies consistency and coincides with the core whenever the core is non-empty (Theorem 4). Finally, we comment on the difficulty in obtaining further positive results for the class of solvable one-sided assignment problems in line with Sasaki’s (1995) characterizations of the core for two-sided assignment problems.     

Allocating multiple estates among agents with single-peaked preferences

We consider the problem of allocating multiple social endowments (estates) of a perfectly divisible commodity among a group of agents with single-peaked preferences when each agent’s share can come from at most one estate. We inquire if well-known single-estate rules, such as the Uniform rule, the Proportional rule or the fixed-path rules can be coupled with a matching rule so as to achieve efficiency in the multi-estate level. On the class of problems where all agents have symmetric preferences, any efficient single-estate rule can be extended to an efficient multi-estate rule. If we allow asymmetric preferences however, this is no more the case. For nondictatorial single-estate rules that satisfy efficiency, strategy proofness, consistency, and resource monotonicity, an efficient extension to multiple estates is impossible. A similar impossibility also holds for single-estate rules that satisfy efficiency, peak-only, and a weak fairness property. We would like to express our gratitude to Bhaskar Dutta, Semih Koray, Hervé Moulin, and Yuntong Wang as well as an associate editor and two anonymous referees of this journal for detailed comments and suggestions. We also thank the seminar participants at Bilkent University, Indian Statistical Institute, Bilgi University, University of Warwick, ASSET 2003, and BWED XXVI.     

HOW RESEARCH GOES ASTRAY: PATHS AND EQUILIBRIA

Some research disciplines persist for long periods despite contributing very little to our understanding of the world. In the presence of imperfect information about the quality of research, multiple equilibria can exist in which path dependence leads to disciplines going astray because researchers are incentivized to invest in low value lines of research. Research fields which have high social value are more likely to thrive, as are fields in which results are subject to evidence. Survivorship bias can lead to a distribution across disciplines in which weak disciplines have more talented researchers than do stronger disciplines. (JEL A11, A12, B40)