Robust, accurate confidence intervals with a weak instrument: quarter of birth and education

Summary.  An instrument or instrumental variable manipulates a treatment and affects the outcome only indirectly through its manipulation of the treatment. For instance, encouragement to exercise might increase cardiovascular fitness, but only indirectly to the extent that it increases exercise. If instrument levels are randomly assigned to individuals, then the instrument may permit consistent estimation of the effects caused by the treatment, even though the treatment assignment itself is far from random. For instance, one can conduct a randomized experiment assigning some subjects to 'encouragement to exercise' and others to 'no encouragement' but, for reasons of habit or taste, some subjects will not exercise when encouraged and others will exercise without encouragement; none-the-less, such an instrument aids in estimating the effect of exercise. Instruments that are weak, i.e. instruments that have only a slight effect on the treatment, present inferential problems. We evaluate a recent proposal for permutation inference with an instrumental variable in four ways: using Angrist and Krueger's data on the effects of education on earnings using quarter of birth as an instrument, following Bound, Jaeger and Baker in using simulated independent observations in place of the instrument in Angrist and Krueger's data, using entirely simulated data in which correct answers are known and finally using statistical theory to show that only permutation inferences maintain correct coverage rates. The permutation inferences perform well in both easy and hard cases, with weak instruments, as well as with long-tailed responses.     

Comparison of Some Mrpp and Standard Rank Tests for Two Unequal Samples

MRPP rank tests for two subgroups of unequal size are studied in detail. Based on the Pearson criteria, appropriate Pearson curves are suggested for their approximate distributions. On the basis ot extensive simulations, empirical powers of these tests are compared among themselves and with some standard nonparametric tests for several underlying populations.     

A note on the multivariate multisample rank sum and median tests

The muitivariate nonparametric tests analogous to the univar-iate rank sum test and median test are contained in Puri and Sen (1970). These tests provided a practical alternative for the analysis of multivariate data when the assumptions of parametric methods are not satisfied.

In this paper maximum values for L_Nthe asymptotic chi-Square test statistic for both the Multivariate Multisample Rank Sum Test (MMRST) and the Multivariate Multisample Median Test (MMMT) are developed.     

p-Value for two-Sample Linear Rank Tests Using Permutation Simulations and the Normal Approximation Method

Test statistics from the class of two-sample linear rank tests are commonly used to compare a treatment group with a control group. Two independent random samples of sizes m and n are drawn from two populations. As a result, N = m + n observations in total are obtained. The aim is to test the null hypothesis of identical distributions. The alternative hypothesis is that the populations are of the same form but with a different measure of central tendency. This article examines mid p-values from the null permutation distributions of tests based on the class of two-sample linear rank statistics. The results obtained indicate that normal approximation-based computations are very close to the permutation simulations, and they provide p-values that are close to the exact mid p-values for all practical purposes.     

On Tests for Equicorrelation Coefficient of a Standard Symmetric Multivariate Normal Distribution

Sampson (1976, 1978) has considered applications of the standard symmetric multivariate normal (SSMN) distribution and the estimation of its equi-correlation coefficient, ρ. Tests for ρ are considered here. The likelihood ratio test suffers from several theoretical and practical shortcomings. We propose the locally most powerful (LMP) test which is globally (one-sided) unbiased, very simple to compute and is based on the best natural unbiased estimator of ρ. Exact null and non-null distributions of the test statistic are presented and percentage points are given. Statistical curvature (Efron, 1975) indicates that its performance improves with mk (sample size × dimension) while exact power computations show that even for reasonably small values of mk the performance is quite encouraging. Recalling Brown's (1971) cautions we establish by local comparison with the LMP similar test for ρ in the SMN (Rao, 1973) distribution, that here the additional information on the mean and variance is quite worthwhile.     

Invariant tests for multivariate normality: a critical review

d -dimensional random vector X is some nondegenerate d-variate normal distribution, on the basis of i.i.d. copies X ₁, ..., X _x of X. Particular emphasis is given to progress that has been achieved during the last decade. Furthermore, we stress the typical diagnostic pitfall connected with purportedly ‘directed’ procedures, such as tests based on measures of multivariate skewness. Received: April 30, 2001; revised version: October 30, 2001     

Multivariate Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency and Spanning With a Large Number of Assets and Time-Varying Covariances

We develop a finite-sample procedure to test the mean-variance efficiency and spanning hypotheses, without imposing any parametric assumptions on the distribution of model disturbances. In so doing, we provide an exact distribution-free method to test uniform linear restrictions in multivariate linear regression models. The framework allows for unknown forms of nonnormalities as well as time-varying conditional variances and covariances among the model disturbances. We derive exact bounds on the null distribution of joint F statistics to deal with the presence of nuisance parameters, and we show how to implement the resulting generalized nonparametric bounds tests with Monte Carlo resampling techniques. In sharp contrast to the usual tests that are not even computable when the number of test assets is too large, the power of the proposed test procedure potentially increases along both the time and cross-sectional dimensions.     

The Performance of Panel Unit Root and Stationarity Tests: Results from a Large Scale Simulation Study

This paper presents results on the size and power of first generation panel unit root and stationarity tests obtained from a large scale simulation study. The tests developed in the following papers are included: Levin et al. (2002), Harris and Tzavalis (1999), Breitung (2000), Im et al. (1997, 2003), Maddala and Wu (1999), Hadri (2000), and Hadri and Larsson (2005). Our simulation set-up is designed to address inter alia the following issues. First, we assess the performance as a function of the time and the cross-section dimensions. Second, we analyze the impact of serial correlation introduced by positive MA roots, known to have detrimental impact on time series unit root tests, on the performance. Third, we investigate the power of the panel unit root tests (and the size of the stationarity tests) for a variety of first order autoregressive coefficients. Fourth, we consider both of the two usual specifications of deterministic variables in the unit root literature.