Fertility decline in the modern world and in the original demographic transition: Testing three theories with cross-national data

This study uses aggregate data on a large number of the world's societies to test three theories of fertility decline in the modern world and in the original demographic transition. One prominent theory relates fertility decline to the changing economic value of children. With industrialization and overall modernization the economic value of children's labor shifts from positive to negative. This interpretation has been challenged by those who claim that the flow of wealth in preindustrial societies is always from parent to child rather than from child to parent. An alternative interpretation is that fertility levels reflect people's efforts to promote their reproductive success, and that this requires the careful tracking of infant and child mortality. Fertility rates are adjusted to the rate of infant and child survival, and will be high when survival rates are low and low when survival rates are high. A third theory emphasizes female empowerment. Fertility will be high when women are highly subordinated to men, but as women gain more autonomy and control over their own lives they reduce their fertility levels because, among other possibilities, higher levels of fertility present them with serious burdens. We tested all three theories through multiple regression analyses performed on two samples of societies, the first a large sample of the world's nation-states during the period between 1960 and 1990, and the second a sample of now-developed societies between 1880 and 1940. Our findings showed that infant mortality was an excellent predictor of fertility, and that female empowerment was a good predictor. However, there was only weak support for the argument that the economic value of children's labor plays an important role in fertility decisions. The findings were discussed in the context of a broader interpretation of fertility behavior in societies with high levels of industrialization and modernization.     

Factors Associated with the Finnish Fertility Decline Since 1776

The analysis of annual age-specific fertility rates in Finland over more than 200 years reveals the existence of a significant early fertility decline at the end of the eighteenth century preceding the secular decline that started around 1910. A reconstruction of age-specific proportions married by a simulation model based on Coale's marriage model indicates that the mean age at marriage increased and the proportion ever-marrying decreased substantially during the period of the early fertility decline. A modification of the index of family limitation applied under certain assumptions to overall fertility rates also indicates that fertility was essentially natural until 1910. Cross-lagged correlation analysis shows that infant mortality does not influence subsequent fertility in the pre-modern period. Finally, a number of socio-economic indicators are related to fertility, and conclusions are drawn from the Finnish case about several hypotheses in the field of demographic transition.     

The demographic transition in the Korean peninsula, 1910-1990: South and North Korea compared

North and South Korea have both experienced demographic transition and fertility and mortality declines. The fertility declines came later in North Korea. In 1990, the population was 43.4 million in South Korea and 21.4 million in North Korea and the age and sex compositions were similar. This evolution of population structure occurred despite differences in political systems and fertility determinants. Differences were in the fertility rate and the rate of natural increase. The total fertility rate was 2.5 children in North Korea and 1.6 in South Korea. The rate of natural increase was 18.5 per 1000 in North Korea and 9.8 in South Korea. Until 1910, the Korean peninsula was in the traditional stage characterized by high fertility and mortality. The early transitional stage came during 1910-45 under the Japanese annexation. Health and medical facilities improved and the crude birth rate rose and then declined. With the exception of the war years, population expanded as a function of births, deaths, and international migration. Poor economic conditions in rural areas acted as a push factor for south-directed migration, migration to Japan, and urban migration. Next came the chaotic stage, during 1945-60. South Korean population expanded during this period of political unrest. Repatriation and refugee migration constituted a large proportion of the population increase. Although the war brought high mortality, new medicine and disease treatment reduced the mortality rate after the war. By 1955-60, the crude death rate was 16.1 per 1000 in South Korea. The crude birth rate remained high at 42 per 1000 between 1950-55. The postwar period was characterized by the baby boom and higher fertility than the pre-war period of 1925-45. Total fertility was 6.3 by 1955-60. The late transitional stage occurred during 1960-85 with reduced fertility and continued mortality decline. By 1980-85, total fertility was 2.3 in the closed population. The restabilization stage occurred during 1985-90, and fertility declined to 1.6. In North Korea, strong population control policies precipitated fertility decline. In South Korea, the determinants were contraception, rising marriage age, and increased use of abortion concomitant with improved socioeconomic conditions.     

Emptying the Nest: Older Men in the United States, 1880–2000

Between 1880 and 2000, the percentage of married men 60 and older living only with their wives in empty nest households rose from 19 percent to 78 percent. Data drawn from the US census show that more than half of this transformation occurred in the 30‐year period from 1940 to 1970, bookended by moderate increases between 1880 and 1940 and very modest increases after 1970. Two literatures have presented demographic, cultural, and economic explanations for the decline in elderly co‐residence with their children, but none adequately accounts for a sharp change in the mid‐twentieth century. Both aggregate comparisons and multivariate analysis of factors influencing the living arrangements of elderly men suggest that economic advances for all age groups in the critical 30‐year period, along with trends in fertility and immigration, best explain the three‐stage shift that made the empty nest the dominant household form for older men by the beginning of the twenty‐first century.     

Demographic transition and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Greece

Over the past decades, due to a combination of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancies, most industrialized countries have experienced aging populations and low numbers of young populations that may pose economic problems in the future. This paper investigates the relationship first between fertility rate and infant mortality rate and second among demographic changes, real wages and real output in Greece over the period 1960–96. When we control for fluctuations in overall economic activity and the labor market on the bivariate relationship between fertility and mortality rates, the evidence suggests that Granger-causation must exist in at least one direction. The results show that in the long run a decrease in infant mortality rates, taking into consideration economic performance and the labor market, causes a reduction in fertility rates. Also, employing the vector error-correction models, the variance decomposition analysis and the impulse response functions, the empirical results support the endogeneity of fertility choice to infant mortality, the labor market and the growth process. Received: 16 May 1999/Accepted: 18 September 2000     

Fertility Decline in Prussia, 1875–1910: A Pooled Cross-Section Time Series Analysis

Marital fertility level and decline are examined in 407 small areas in Prussia using quinquennial data for the period 1875 to 1910 from an unusually rich and detailed data set, and pooled cross-section time-series methods. Religion, ethnicity, and prevalence of mineworkers are the only statistically significant factors associated with marital fertility level. However, none of these are important predictors of marital fertility decline. Marital fertility decline in nineteenth-century Prussia is better predicted by increased women's labour force participation in non-traditional occupations, the growth of financial institutions, the development of a transport-communications infrastructure, reduction in infant mortality and improvements in education.     

Fertility in urban areas of Mexico: Implications for the theory of the demographic transition

Recent investigations indicate that fertility is not universally associated with urbanization and economic development in the manner predicted by the theory of the demographic transition. It is possible, however, that these investigations only partially test the theory, for the degree of industrialization in urbanareas is rarely taken into account. Two hypotheses are tested based upon Mexican census and vital registration data for 1940-60: (a) urban fertility is inversely related to the proportion of the urban population employed in the secondary sector of the economy and (b) changes in urban fertility are inversely related to changes in the proportion of the urban population employed in the secondary sector of the economy.At each census date from 1940 to 1960, the association between urban fertility (age-standardized child-woman ratio adjusted for infant mortality) and the percent in the secondary sector is low and positive. In 1960, however, the association is negative (suggesting a possible change in the direction of the association), but city growth rates and the proportion of females married are more closely related to fertility than percent in the secondary sector. Hypothesis a, then, receives little support from the data.Much the same is true of hypothesis b. The association between changes in urban fertility and changes in the percent in the secondary sector is positive. Moreover, city growth rates and changes in the proportion literate explain more of the variation in fertility change than does the percent in the secondary sector.In addition, over-all fertility has risen since 1940, and this rise is pronounced in large urban areas. It is suggested that among certain segments of Mexican society, the response to economic development has been an increase rather than a reduction in fertility. It is further suggested that if city growth is indicative of rural-urban migration, the presence of large numbers of rural migrants in urbanareas may help to explain the decreasing size of the urban-rural fertility differential in Mexico.If this interpretation is correct, the theory of the demographic transition is in need of further modification, specification, and verification.     

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Infant Mortality in Egypt: Analyzing Trends Between 1995 and 2014

This paper analyses the trend of the socioeconomic inequalities in infant mortality rates in Egypt over the period 1995–2014, using repeated cross-sectional data from the National Demographic and Health Survey. A multivariate logistic regression and concentration indices are used to examine the demographic and socioeconomic correlates of infant mortality, and how the degree of socioeconomic disparities in child mortality rates has evolved over time. We find a significant drop in infant mortality rates from 63 deaths per 1000 live births in 1995 to 22 deaths per 1000 live births in 2014. However, analyzing trends over the study period reveals no corresponding progress in narrowing the socioeconomic disparities in childhood mortality. Infant mortality rates remain higher in rural areas and among low-income families than the national average. Results show an inverse association between infant mortality rates and living standard measures, with the poor bearing the largest burden of early child mortality. Though the estimated concentration indices show a decline in the degree of socioeconomic inequality in child mortality rates over time, infant mortality rate among the poor remains twice the rate of the richest wealth quintile. Nonetheless, this decline in the degree of socioeconomic inequality in child mortality is not supported by the results of the multivariate logistic regression model. Results of the logistic model show higher odds of infant mortality among rural households, children who are twins, households with risky birth intervals. We find no statistically significant association between infant mortality and child’s sex, access to safe water, mothers’ work, and mothers’ nutritional status. Infant mortality is negatively associated with household wealth and regular health care during pregnancy. Concerted effort and targeting intervention measures are still needed to reduce the degree of socioeconomic and regional inequalities in child health, including infant mortality, in Egypt.     

Trends in fertility level in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics during the years of Soviet rule

The birth rates of the USSR within its present boundaries are reconstructed for the period 1918-1940 on the basis of incomplete data and taking into consideration several changes in frontiers. Estimates for the years 1941-1945 are derived from data on school attendance during the 1949-1954 period, as well as from data provided by the censuses of 1959 and 1970 concerning cohort survival. Deriving an "effective fertility rate," which adjusts for the mortality wastage of young children, discussion focus is on fertility trends until 1976 and the changes in age patterns of reproduction at the national level and in the various republics. During the 1918-1940 period, the birth rate in the USSR never fell below 30/1000 and never exceeded 45/1000. There was a significant drop in the birth rate in the 1931-1936 period, and this is attributable to the problems of the period of collectivization and to the large-scale processes of migration involved in the country's industrialization. After the late 1940s, the overall birth rate in the USSR stabilized at a level of 25-27/1000, but from 1960 onwards, there was a steady decline in the rate. The level reached its lowest in 1969 and then rose somewhat. This increase reflects the transient influence of changes in the age-marriage structure of the population and in the "timetable" of births. A comparison of the present fertility level with the level in the 1920s indicates that the birth rate has declined by a factor of approximately 2.5, but in evaluating this decline the sharp decline in mortality, particularly infant mortality, must also be considered. The child mortality level in prerevolutionary Russia was very high. The overall mortality rate for the 20 provinces of European Russia in 1920-1922 was 33.2/1000, namely, 1/4 higher than it was before the Revolution. In subsequent years infant mortality continued at a high level and was 18.2% in 1940. In the last 25 years mortality in children under age 5 has markedly declined. In 1976 the overall birth rate was 18.5/1000 and the "effective" birth rate was 18.0/1000. The practice of birth control in families is spreading in various ways. In some cases the proportion of married couples using family planning is increasing, while in other cases couples already using birth control are beginning to use it after the birth of a child lower in birth order. In most areas of the country birth control is being practiced predominantly in such a way as to keep families down to 1 or 2 children. For the whole of the USSR in 1973-1974, the gross reproduction rate was 1.178, while the net rate was 1.118. Although there is ample population replacement in the country as a whole, in a number of republics even mere replacement is threatened.     

A New Look at the Effect of Venereal Disease on Black Fertility: The Deep South in 1940

The effect of venereal disease on black fertility is estimated for six Deep South states around 1940. Several relevant control variables are introduced, including characteristics of the socioeconomic environment and measures of possible diffusion processes that might have affected the relationship between venereal disease and fertility. The objective is to identify as precisely as possible the net effect of venereal disease on black fertility. The analyses are based on 395 counties in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina. The results indicate that venereal disease was significantly related to black fertility, but that the relationship was considerably weaker than some have suggested (most notably, Wright and Pirie, 1984). Furthermore, the revised estimates suggest that venereal infections probably accounted for around 28 percent of the historical decline in black fertility between 1875-1880 and 1935-1940. I conclude that the black fertility transition was not unicausal and that explanations for the black experience should be sought among the same causative forces considered for other populations.     

Fertility decline in Punjab, India: parallels with historical Europe

Two interesting features emerge from this study of fertility behaviour in Punjab. First, it brings out the common features of peasant life and demographic behaviour found in this developing-country setting and in historical Europe. As in much of Europe, marriage was regulated to adjust to the availability of land and other resources. It is interesting to note that the operation of this 'nuptiality valve' was quite consistent with a system of joint families and partible inheritance. Secondly, the findings suggest that we need to re-define what we understand to be the features of socio-economic development which are crucial for fertility decline. Fertility began to decline steadily in this part of Punjab as early as 1940, at a time when the society was overwhelmingly agrarian, illiterate, and infant mortality was high with no access to modern contraceptive technology, as in historical Europe. The onset of the decline was brought about by development interventions which stabilized fluctuations in crop yields and mortality, thus radically improving stability of people's expectations. This study also points out the inapplicability of Mamdani's theories of fertility behaviour to the people he studies.     

Fertility decline in Germany: An econometric appraisal

Summary A re-analysis of Knodel's data provides some new results for the fertility decline in Germany and a new approach to testing hypotheses about the demographic transition. Two formulations of transition theory are compared: one emphasizing the importance of changing social and economic structure for fertility decline; the other, the changing relationships between fertility and its determinants over time. To evaluate these formulations, multivariate time series cross-sectional models are developed. The statistical models permit the estimation of relationships both cross-sectionally and over time. As a consequence, the ability of the independent variables to explain cross-sectional as against temporal differences is evaluated. Industrialization, urbanization, religious composition, migration, infant mortality and marriage patterns satisfactorily explain the fertility decline once regional differences have been taken into account. Persisting characteristics of regional units account for much of the unexplained variance. Industrialization is the main explanatory variable of fertility decline in Germany. In the period considered, its impact on fertility increased substantially.     

Effects of Childhood Mortality and Morbidity on the Fertility Transition in sub‐Saharan Africa

Child mortality rates have fallen substantially in developing countries since 1960. The expected fertility decline has followed only weakly in sub‐Saharan Africa compared to other recent and historic demographic transitions. Disease and anthropometric data suggest that morbidity remains prevalent in Africa despite child survival improvements. The uniquely high infectious disease burden among children in Africa reduces population health and diminishes the returns to human capital investment, thwarting the quantity–quality tradeoff for children that typically accompanies the mortality transition. Individual‐level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys are used to show that persistent morbidity has weakened the positive relationship between child mortality and total fertility rates throughout the region, slowing Africa's demographic transition.     

The Apparent Failure of Russia's Pronatalist Family Policies

Russia has a history of pronatalist policies dating back to the 1930s. Two sets of pronatalist measures were implemented during the past 40 years. The one designed in the early 1980s proved to be a clear failure. Instead of raising fertility, completed cohort fertility declined from 1.8 births per woman for the 1960 birth cohort to 1.6 for the 1968 cohort. The government of President Putin became concerned with the dire demographic conditions of high mortality and low fertility in Russia in the 1990s and early 2000s. A comprehensive set of pronatalist measures came into effect in January 2007. The period total fertility rate increased from 1.3 births per woman in 2006 to 1.6 in 2011, which the authorities view as an unqualified success. An unbiased demographic evaluation as well as analyses of Russian experts reveals that apparently the measures mainly caused a lowering of the age at birth and shortening of birth intervals. It appears that any real fertility increase is questionable, i.e. cohort fertility is not likely to increase appreciably. The recent pronatalist measures are likely to turn out to be a failure.     

Regional trends in fertility and mortality in Brazil

Abstract Questions asked in the 1970 Brazilian census allow the application of fertility and childhood mortality techniques developed by W. Brass. Using some propositions based on fertility estimates from the 1970 census data it was possible to extend the analysis to the 1940, 1950 and 1960 censuses. Estimates are also provided for ten Brazilian regions, for 1940, 1950 and 1970. These estimates show a slight decrease in the fertility level for the country as a whole, but two different trends at regional levels. Between 1940-50 and 1960-70 the poorer regions experienced constant or increasing fertility levels while developed regions experienced declining ones, with only one exception. The mortality estimates indicate a consistent decline in the mortality level of all regions, but also a divergent trend between poor and developed regions, in life expectancies at birth. This work is a summarized version of Chapters II, III and IV of my Ph.D. thesis written under the supervision of Professor D. V. Glass and Mr J. Hobcraft at the University of London. I am most grateful to my supervisors as well as to Professor W. Brass for valuable comments on several aspects of the thesis. While carrying out this study, the author was supported by grants from the Federal University of Minas Gerais, Brazil, and the Ford Foundation.     

The impact of childhood mortality on Fertility in six rural Thanas of Bangladesh

In this article, we examine the relationship between child mortality and subsequent fertility using prospective longitudinal data on births and childhood deaths occurring to nearly 8000 Bangladeshi mothers observed over the 1982-1993 period, a time of rapid fertility decline. Generalized hazard-regression analyses are employed to assess the effect of infant and child mortality on the hazard of conception, with controls for birth order and maternal age and educational attainment. Results show that childhood mortality reduces the time to subsequent conception if the death occurs within a given interval, representing the combined effect of biological and volitional replacement. The time to conception is also reduced if a childhood death occurs during a prior birth interval, a finding that signifies an effect of volitional replacement of the child that died. Moreover, mortality effects in prior birth intervals are consistent with hypothesized insurance (or hoarding) effects. Interaction of replacement with elapsed time suggests that the volitional impact of child mortality increases as the demographic transition progresses. This volitional effect interacts with sex of index child. Investigation of higher-order interactions suggests that this gender-replacement effect has not changed over time.     

A look at Asia's changing youth population

This report summarizes findings from a recent East-West Center study on demographic and social changes among young people aged 15-24 years in 17 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia. Nearly every country in Asia has experienced fertility decline. Decline began in Japan and Singapore during the 1950s, followed by declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and China during the 1960s. Declines occurred during the 1970s in Indonesia, India, and Myanmar. A "youth bulge" occurred about 20 years later due to declines in infant and child mortality. This bulge varies by country with the timing and magnitude of population growth and subsequent fertility decline. The proportion of youth population rises from 16% to 18% about 20 years after the beginning of fertility decline and declines to a much lower stable level after several decades. The bulge is large in countries with rapid fertility decline, such as China. Governments can minimize the effects of bulge on population growth by raising the legal age at marriage, lengthening the interval between first marriage and first birth, and increasing birth intervals. School enrollments among adolescents are rising. In South Korea, the population aged 15-24 years increased from 3.8 to 8.8 million during 1950-90, a rise of 132% compared to a rise of 653% among school enrollments. It is expected that the number of out-of-school youths will decline from 5.1 to 3.6 million during 1990-2025. Youth employment varies by gender. Policies/programs in family planning and reproductive health will need to address the changing needs of youth population.     

The effects of infant mortality on fertility revisited: new evidence from latin america

In this paper, we examine empirical evidence for a relation between infant and child mortality and fertility in Latin American countries from 1920 to 1990. We investigate the relation at several levels of aggregation and evaluate the extent to which evidence at one level is consistent with evidence at other levels. We first examine aggregate cross-country information over several decades, a type of data typically used in past research on the topic. We also examine yearly series of births, deaths, infant deaths, and socioeconomic indicators for selected countries to track the association between short-term fluctuations in fertility and infant mortality. Finally, we use micro-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to assess the relation between fertility and child mortality from individual reproductive histories. The evidence we assemble from these different data sets is remarkably consistent and suggests small positive effects of infant mortality on fertility. These effects, however, may be too small to support the hypothesis that changes in child mortality are of more than modest importance in the process of fertility decline in Latin America in the late twentieth century.     

Trends in the relationship between socioeconomic status and infant mortality in metropolitan Ohio, 1960–1990

This paper presents the results of an ecological analysis of the relationship between infant mortality and economic status in metropolitan Ohio at four points in time centering on the censuses of 1960, 1970, 1980 and 1990. The basic unit of analysis is the census tract of mother's usual residence, with economic status being determined by the percentage of low income families living in each tract. For each period, the census tracts were aggregated into broad income groups and three-year average infant mortality rates were computed for each area, by age, sex, race and exogenous-endogenous causes of death. The most important conclusion to be drawn from the data is that in spite of some very remarkable declines in infant mortality for all socioeconomic groups since 1960, there continues to be a very clear and pronounced inverse association between income status and infant mortality. Indeed, there is some evidence to suggest that it is stronger in 1990 than it was three decades earlier. The general inverse association is observed for both sexes, for whites and nonwhites, and for all major causes of death. At the same time, the data reveal notable variations in the pattern of the relationship over time, as well as several differences between whites and nonwhites in the nature and magnitude of the relationship. Some macro-economic hypotheses are offered to explain these temporal and racial differences in the pattern of the relationship between economic status and infant mortality.This article is an expanded version of a paper presented at the annual meetings of the Southern Demographic Association in New Orleans, 21–23 October 1993.