Uncertainty with Partial Information on the Possibility of the Events

The Choquet expected utility model deals with nonadditive probabilities (or capacities). Their dependence on the information the decision-maker has about the possibility of the events is taken into account. Two kinds of information are examined: interval information (for instance, the percentage of white balls in an urn is between 60% and 100%) and comparative information (for instance, the information that there are more white balls than black ones). Some implications are shown with regard to the core of the capacity and to two additive measures which can be derived from capacities: the Shapley value and the nucleolus. Interval information bounds prove to be satisfied by all probabilities in the core, but they are not necessarily satisfied by the nucleolus (when the core is empty) and the Shapley value. We must introduce the constrained nucleolus in order for these bounds to be satisfied, while the Shapley value does not seem to be adjustable. On the contrary, comparative information inequalities prove to be not necessarily satisfied by all probabilities in the core and we must introduce the constrained core in order for these inequalities be satisfied. However, both the nucleolus and the Shapley value satisfy the comparative information inequalities, and the Shapley value does it more strictly than the nucleolus. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

关系网络与地下经济——基于上海一个自行车黑市的研究

本文以一个自行车黑市为案例,考察关系网络与地下经济活动相互作用的动态过程。研究表明,自行车黑市活动衍生的关系网络促进了信息传递,提升了信任水平,降低了安全风险,增加了黑市的效益,塑造出互惠的交易模式。随着黑市的运作,关系网络继续演化,当信息和信任积累到一定程度时,黑车贩子间达成了关于货源收购和价格同盟的卡特尔协议,黑市的运作方式再一次被改变。关系网络对潜在违规力量产生威慑,起到维护市场秩序的作用。