Demography and the environment

Demographers' interest in the environment has generally been enmeshed in broader issues of population growth and economic development. Empirical research by demographers on environmental issues other than natural-resource constraints is limited. In this paper, I briefly review past demographic thinking about population and the environment and suggest reasons for the limited scope of demographic research in this area. Next, I describe more recent demographic research on the environment and suggest several newer areas for demographic research. Finally, I consider the future of research on the environment in the field of demography.     

Spatial Demography: An Opportunity to Improve Policy Making at Diverse Decision Levels

The number of applications of spatial demography has been growing mostly since the 1990s. Ranging from simple visualization to sophisticated spatial analytical techniques, these applications bring a new layer of explanation to demographic phenomena. This paper reviews demographic studies that specifically addressed space with spatial statistical models, and that focused on fertility, mortality, migration, and population models. Additionally, it summarizes different spatial datasets and software freely available, as well as the challenges that exist for the development of spatial demography applications. These challenges include confidentiality issues, scale problems, and the lack of training on spatial analysis in population centers. Although the first and second challenges involve modeling and technical solutions, the latter depends only on demographers’ commitment and willingness to promote change. Several topics for future spatially focused research are also outlined. Finally, the paper makes a strong case regarding the significant contribution that spatial demography can make to the monitoring, evaluation, and implementation of population policies.     

Political demography: Powerful trends under-attended by demographic science

The interconnections between politics and the dramatic demographic changes under way around the world have been neglected by the two research disciplines that could contribute most to their understanding: demography and political science. Instead, this area of ‘political demography’ has largely been ceded to political activists, pundits, and journalists, leading often to exaggerated or garbled interpretation. The terrain includes some of the most politically sensitive and contested issues: alleged demographically determined shifts in the international balance of power; low fertility, population decline, and demographic ageing; international migration; change in national identity; and compositional shifts in politically sensitive social categories and human rights. Meanwhile many governments and non-governmental actors have actively pursued varieties of ‘strategic demography’, deploying fertility, mortality, or migration as instruments of domestic or international policy. Political scientists and demographers could and should use their knowledge and analytic techniques to improve understanding and to moderate excessive claims and fears on these topics.     

Promises and Pitfalls of Using Digital Traces for Demographic Research

The digital traces that we leave online are increasingly fruitful sources of data for social scientists, including those interested in demographic research. The collection and use of digital data also presents numerous statistical, computational, and ethical challenges, motivating the development of new research approaches to address these burgeoning issues. In this article, we argue that researchers with formal training in demography—those who have a history of developing innovative approaches to using challenging data—are well positioned to contribute to this area of work. We discuss the benefits and challenges of using digital trace data for social and demographic research, and we review examples of current demographic literature that creatively use digital trace data to study processes related to fertility, mortality, and migration. Focusing on Facebook data for advertisers—a novel “digital census” that has largely been untapped by demographers—we provide illustrative and empirical examples of how demographic researchers can manage issues such as bias and representation when using digital trace data. We conclude by offering our perspective on the road ahead regarding demography and its role in the data revolution.     

The impact of incomplete geocoding on small area population estimates

Small-area population estimates are often made using geocoded address data in conjunction with the housing-unit method. Previous research, however, suggests that these data are subject to systematic incompleteness that biases estimates of race, ethnicity, and other important demographic characteristics. This incompleteness is driven largely by an inability to complete georeference address-based datasets. Given these challenges, small-area demographers need further, and to date largely unavailable, information on the amount of error typically introduced by using incompletely geocoded data to estimate population. More specifically, we argue that applied demographers should like to know if these errors are statistically significant, spatially patterned, or systematically related to specific population characteristics. This paper evaluates the impact of incomplete geocoding on accuracy in small-area population estimates, using a Vintage 2000 set of block-group estimates of the household population for the Albuquerque, NM metro area. Precise estimates of the impact of incomplete geocoding on the accuracy of estimates are made, associations with specific demographic characteristics are considered, and a simple potential remediation based on Horvitz-Thompson theory is presented. The implications of these results for the practice of applied demography are reviewed.     

What is applied demography?

Applied demography has recently gained recognition as an emergent specialization among practicing demographers. We argue that applied demography is intrinsically distinct from basic demography because it exhibits the value-orientation and empirical characteristics of a decision-making science while the latter exhibits the value-orientation and empirical hallmarks of a basic science. Distinguishing characteristics of applied demography are based on the context in which it places precision and explanatory power relative to time and resources as well as the fact its substantive problems are largely exogenously-defined, usually by customers. The substantive problems of basic demography, on the other hand, are largely endogenously-defined, usually by academic demographers. Moreover, basic demography is primarily concerned with offering convincing explanations of demographic phenomena and tends to view time and resources as barriers to surmount in order to maximize precision and explanatory power. This context is very different from the one in which applied demography is embedded, which views explanatory power and precision in terms of doing what is necessary to support practical decision-making while minimizing time and resources. We examine this conceptualization of applied demography in terms of the methods and materials that fall within its purview and discuss some important consequences, including research agendas and training programs. We conclude by posing several important but unanswered questions about the actual and potential scope of applied demography and discuss some of the implications inherent in these questions.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association, 20 October 1995, Richmond, Virginia, USA.     

The contours of demography: Estimates and projections

This paper considers the scope of demography and the various research approaches that legitimately could claim the label. As a small field lacking security in academic structures, demography has been unusually sensitive to demand factors, including those associated with perceived population problems. International health is cited as an area of increased demographic presence; reasons for this development are explored. The technology for performing research in demography is improving more rapidly than in many other areas of the social sciences, and thus is helping to improve the relative standing of the field. Taking a demand-oriented approach, the paper identifies several promising research areas in which demographers will be called on to address issues of national and international concern.     

Demography and Public Health Emergency Preparedness: Making the Connection

The tools and techniques of population sciences are extremely relevant to the discipline of public health emergency preparedness: protecting and securing the population’s health requires information about that population. While related fields such as security studies have successfully integrated demographic tools into their research and literature, the theoretical and practical connection between the methods of demography and the practice of public health emergency preparedness is weak. This article suggests the need to further the interdisciplinary use of demography by examining the need for a systematic use of population science techniques in public health emergency preparedness. Ultimately, we demonstrate how public health emergency preparedness can incorporate demography to develop more effective preparedness plans. Important policy implications emerge: demographers and preparedness experts need to collaborate more formally in order to facilitate community resilience and mitigate the consequences of public health emergencies.     

Geographic Information Systems and Spatial Data Processing in Demography: a Review

This paper reviews the use of geographic information systems (GIS) software for spatial data processing in demography. The review begins with an introduction to GIS. Next, it traces the three major types of spatial data problems confronting demographers: the geocoding and geoprocessing of microdata, estimation of detailed population surfaces, and combining data aggregated to incompatible zone systems. GIS and non-GIS solutions to these problems are contrasted, with examples from published research. Spatially pre-processed datasets available to demographers are then discussed. The author concludes by noting that the solutions GIS provides to previously intractable data problems in spatial demography might encourage a focus on dynamic processes of population change in local areas.     

Evolutionary Approaches to Population: Implications for Research and Policy

Evolutionary theory is becoming an increasingly important perspective in many social science disciplines. Ironically, the impact of evolutionary theory has been minimal in the study of human population although among the social sciences it is in demography and related fields that evolutionary approaches would be most appropriate. In this paper I review varying perspectives within evolutionary theory, proceeding to a brief review of theoretical paradigms within the field of demography. I then examine how evolutionary perspectives can interface with these theories, showing how evolutionary approaches elaborate, strengthen, and unify these outlooks. Lastly, I explore the implications of evolutionary approaches for research and policy.     

对人口学学科体系的重新认识

人口学是一门方兴未艾的朝阳科学 ,2 1世纪正是人口科学的用武之时 ,人口学科学体系构成的研究是人口学研究中的重要环节。国内外学者对人口学学科体系的认识并不统一 ,对重大人口学问题的看法也有待商榷。人口学分支学科是人口科学研究进一步深入的载体 ,是人口科学发展与创新的新的增长点     

What population studies can do for business

Demographers have a fundamental role to play in planning for the future. They possess a wide range of skills concerning the number, diversity and spatial distribution of the population, which are of value to business concerns. The role of demographers in analysis of census data is of special value. This paper discusses the specific skills acquired by demographers and provides examples of how these skills can be very useful and important in planning in both the private and public sectors. Finally the future of demographic training in Australia is considered by contrasting the APA membership with that of the PAA and considering the need for developing more teaching in demography at Australian tertiary institutions. The role of the APA in improving the status of demography as an important tool for corporate planning for the future is also emphasized.     

Testing Evolutionary Hypotheses with Demographic Data

An ecological evolutionary viewpoint offers new perspectives on contemporary demographic problems in general and on population–environment issues in particular. In turn, rich and detailed human demographic data can help solve problems of interest in evolutionary theory. Such data have been analyzed in greatest detail in studies of traditional and historical societies. Evolutionary approaches using historical data go beyond small‐sample anthropological studies to the application of the evolutionary approach to large datasets, and illuminate important similarities between small‐scale traditional societies and large modern populations living in evolutionarily novel environments. This article provides a concise update of the breadth of questions and hypotheses of likely interest to demographers and others that evolutionary theorists address using a variety of traditional and historical datasets. It suggests opportunities for additional collaborative work between evolutionary theorists and historical demographers and highlights topics relevant to modern demography.     

Putting people into place

Over the past two decades, there has been an explosion of empirical research on neighborhoods and health. However, although the data and approaches owe much to the early contributions of demographers and population scientists, this debt is largely unrecognized. Likewise, challenges posed in the early literature remain largely unanswered. I argue that just as demographers and population scientists were pioneers in the study of neighborhoods and health, they are uniquely poised to lead the field again. Putting people into place means explaining behavior and outcomes in relation to a potentially changing local context. A more dynamic conceptualization is needed that fully incorporates human agency, integrates multiple dimensions of local social and spatial context, develops the necessary longitudinal data, and implements appropriate tools. Diverse approaches with complementary strengths will help surmount the many analytic challenges to studying the dynamics of neighborhoods and health, including agent-based microsimulation models.     

Segregation and Fragmentation: Extending Landscape Ecology and Pattern Metrics Analysis to Spatial Demography

Though demography’s roots involve a strong spatial component, recent attention to capitalizing on widely available spatially referenced demographic data has returned the focus to spatially enabled analyses. Landscape ecology offers a theoretical framework and concomitant methodology in pattern metric analysis well suited for extracting process through the examination of spatial patterns. Applied on the environmental side of population–environment interaction research, pattern metric analysis has not been brought to bear on population data per se. This research illustrates the utility of a pattern metric approach utilizing U.S. Census data from 1990 and 2000 to document changes in spatial configuration of race and class in South Carolina. The results corroborate similar findings elsewhere of exurban growth as well as an increasing income gap and spread of Hispanic population, both statistically and spatially. Further insight into the forces related to these processes is gained from explicit assessment of spatial configuration. The method is offered as a complementary tool to the richly evolving field of spatial demography.     

Summary of the social sciences and population policy: A survey

This survey makes quite explicit the willingness of the social sciences and demography to initiate or expand teaching, research, and training on population policy. The disciplines now differ greatly in these activities. Of the 117 suggestions for research on policy, 41 are related to policy content; 16 to policy initiative and implementation; 47 to policy evaluation; and 13 to policy philosophy. The social scientists identified thirteen barriers which obstruct them from undertaking the needed research. Nine of the same barriers were named by the demographers. Barriers associated with the academic profession itself include expertise or technical competence, data limitations, ideology, professional identification, intellectual priorities, and role strains. The remaining barriers are associated with the organization of the university or the larger society rather than the academic profession.     

美国的人口学兴衰及其决定因素

从社会建构主义视角回顾和分析美国人口学的发展历程,展现人口学在不同历史时期的发展状况。人口学作为一门学科,其学科特色是人口学者们在特定的历史条件下人为建构出来的。人口学本身是不断的调整和发展的,人口学者们应注意到这一现象,不要被人口学所谓的内在学科特色所束缚。     

Community confidentiality,consent, and the individual research process: Implications for demographic research

Institutional review boards are increasingly meticulous about informed consent and risks and benefits to study participants. Concurrently, heated debate in a number of fields has advanced the notion of community risk and benefit. When research is conducted in communities, and the results may “do harm to” communities socially, economically, or medically, should informed and voluntary consent be obtained from communities as well? We argue that for demographers – by definition interested at the phenomena at the population level – concern for individuals as a part of communities is critical to the research process. Questions of community consent, confidentiality, and participation will be pushed to the fore as demography delves into new areas and methods of investigation. This paper provides a brief overview of the historical development of ethics in human subjects research and the subsequent ties to community-level concerns. Drawing on current examples from a variety of settings, we explore definitions of community, the scope and viability of community participation in research, and the implications of these for demographic enquiry. We find that in contrast to substantive debates, little attention has been given to ethical issues in the demographic research process. Research accountability to communities, including the documentation of community risks and benefits, and community representation and consultation in the research process are recommended.     

Indigenous demography and public policy in Australia: population or peoples?

This paper reviews the application of demographic analysis to Indigenous Affairs public policy in Australia as an exemplar case of the demography of disadvantage. Demography has found a natural and successful role using census, survey and administrative data, but for the most part this is restricted to a series of gap analyses based on a deficit model of Indigenous well-being as measured by standard social indicators. While useful for macropolicy settings, translation of these research findings into coherent policy on the ground is thwarted by a lack of ethnographically informed data that account for the intercultural world in which many Indigenous people exist and operate. This is because the categories and contexts deployed are uncritically those of the mainstream, and not those reflective of Indigenous social structures or life projects. This inadequacy is explored against the background of an emerging dialogue between demography and anthropology. Ironically, Australian demographers pioneered such a dialogue but so far it has failed to penetrate demographic research that informs Indigenous public policy.     

Biosocial models: Can demographers ignore them?

Social demographers must take seriously the challenge to dominant theoretical paradigms that is posed by biosocial models. Accumulating empirical evidence documents the significant contribution of biological variables to the determination of social behaviors, including demographic behaviors. The simplest biosocial models may prove inadequate in social demographic research. More appropriate models may need to allow for causal relationships between biological and social determinants, and for effects that are interactive, non-linear, and discontinuous. While the articulation and testing of such models is unattainable at present, considerable insight can be gained by adding selected biological variables to ongoing demographic research. Demographic surveys should incorporate features of behavioral genetic designs. The chief short-term obstacles to the application of biosocial models in demography are disclinary boundaries; that is, the obstacles are institutional, not scientific.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Workshop on Biosocial Factors, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, 12 October 1994.