我国老龄产业发展研究应该关注的几个问题

我国老年人口的迅速增长、老年人寿命的延长和收入水平的不断提高,为老龄产业提供了广阔的发展空间.但是,目前我国老龄产业还是一个幼稚产业,仅仅规模初具.     

用社会化、产业化机制推进老龄产业发展 --第二次全国老龄产业研讨会综述

20 0 1年 2月 2 5～ 2 6日 ,由中国老龄协会和国家计划委员会社会发展司主办、中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心和北京大学人口所等单位协办的“第二届全国老龄产业研讨会”在北京召开。国务委员、全国老龄工作委员会常务副主任司马义·艾买提、民政部部长多吉才让、副部长杨衍银、中国老龄协会会长张文范等出席了研讨会。司马义·艾买提在研讨会开幕式上发表了题为“全社会共同参与推进老龄产业发展”的重要讲话。他指出 ,我国是一个老年人口大国 ,发展老龄产业是政府的职责。目前 ,我国老龄产业的发展还远远滞后于我国老龄化迅速发展的客观…     

中国老龄产业的发展潜力:一个需求方面的分析

1　引言西方发达国家的老龄产业在老龄化过程中获得了显著的发展 ,老龄产业的产出总值及其所占比例呈现快速增长的趋势。有关资料显示 ,日本的银色市场 1980年占消费市场的 13% ,至 2 0 0 0年将增为 2 4 %。早在1985年 ,美国老年消费市场份额已高达 80 0 0亿美元 ,比预计的 2 0 0 0年日本老年人口消费数额 60 0 0亿美元还高 2 0 0 0亿美元。反过来看 ,作为刚刚开始步入老龄化社会的中国 ,其老龄市场甚为冷清 ,老龄产业发展相当滞后。对于我国老龄产业的发展现状和趋势 ,国内一些学者已有若干探讨 ,他们的观点主要有两种 :老龄产业发展前景看…     

拉动老年有效需求,促进上海老龄产业的发展

基于上海老年人口快速增长的客观事实 ,探讨了这一群体的人口变动对老龄产业发展的影响作用 ,并从如何拉动和激发老年人口群体的有效需求为立足点 ,分析和提出了促进上海老龄产业发展的具体举措。     

我国老龄产业发展的基本思路与对策建议

自2000年我国进入老龄化社会以来,人口老龄化趋势愈加明显。发展老龄产业是应对老龄化社会的重要战略举措。我国老龄产业发展面临有效需求不足,产业供给结构不合理和行业发展不均衡等问题。应采取完善老龄产业发展环境、解决老龄产业结构性矛盾、提高老年人的收入水平和支付能力、确定优先发展领域、创新灵活多样的产业发展模式、探索“官产学研”产业协同发展机制等措施,加快老龄产业稳定持续发展。     

中国老龄人口消费:现状与趋势

目前我国正处于快速人口老龄化阶段,老龄人口规模增加给国家和社会带来了沉重的医疗和养老负担,但老年消费量连年增长说明其中也蕴藏着极大的消费潜能和市场机遇。为此,本文对我国老龄人口各项消费支出现状进行分析,在此基础上,对未来老龄消费者的需求水平和消费总量做出量化预测,以期为企业开拓老龄市场提供参考,为政府相关部门制定规划提供借鉴。     

老龄产业的跨行业特征与统计规范探讨

随着我国人口老龄化进程的加速,大力发展老龄产业对于补充我国传统的政府养老事业空间和充分发挥市场的资源配置功能有重要作用.但老龄产业作为一种按照年龄人群划分的跨行业的特殊产业,当前面临着产业界定难、统计计量难和统计渠道不畅的难题.采用剥离系数的计算方法,可以解决当前老龄产业面临的上述难题.通过开展定期的抽样调查,或依托经济普查,测算得到老龄产业各项产品和服务的剥离系数,然后统计老龄产业各项指标数据,是科学可行的统计途径.     

新疆老年人口结构差异及其问题研究--基于新疆第四次、五次和六次人口普查数据的分析

中国社会已然进入老龄化社会,老龄问题成为中国未来经济社会发展的重大社会问题之一。新疆作为多民族地区和经济欠发达地区,其老龄化问题有其自身特征,进行区域性的老龄化结构问题研究能够了解新疆老龄化的现状和具体问题,为解决区域性的老龄化问题提供科学依据,促进新疆地方性社会的长治久安。基于新疆第四、五和六三次人口普查资料的统计分析,研究发现,新疆老年人口结构存在区域性不平衡、汉族老龄化进程快于少数民族、老龄人社会经济地位较低、老龄妇女问题较为突出和老年公共文化需求等方面的问题。文章提出推进区域老年经济产业发展、对汉族老龄化进行政策干预、推进地方产业结构升级、发展老龄妇女养老服务事业和老年社会公共文化建设的对策建议。     

日本老龄产业的现状及其相关政策

发展老龄产业是应对人口老龄化挑战的重要战略。日本的老龄产业经过20世纪70年代的萌芽期和80、90年代的形成期,目前进入了快速扩张期,成为重要的经济增长点。根据老年人各种需求的成熟状况和老龄产业各领域的发展特点,适时出台相应的政策措施,日本的经验对尚处于形成前期的我国老龄产业的发展具有借鉴意义。     

我国人口老龄化与金融资产需求结构的相关性分析

我国已于2000年进入老龄化社会,基于消费和投资的年龄偏好性差异,老龄人口对金融资产的需求行为影响着我国居民金融资产需求结构的变化。本文根据生命周期理论,通过老龄人口与金融资产需求结构的相关性分析,阐述我国老龄人口对金融资产需求的偏好,并为完善和促进我国老龄人口金融资产需求的多元化提供有意的借鉴。     

发达国家开拓老年市场的经验及其对我国的启示

开拓老年市场、发展老年产业是解决老龄化问题的重要举措。本文重点介绍了发达国家老年市场的发展状况、政府和市场经营者在开发老年市场、发展老年产业的一些做法及对我国的启示,提出了我国开发老年市场,刺激国内需求的一些对策和思路。     

Social change,population policies,and fertility decline in Colombia and Venezuela

This paper takes a comparative case-study approach to examine the social and policy correlates of fertility decline. The analysis compares fertility behavior across a mature and young cohort of women in Colombia and Venezuela, two countries that experienced rapid demographic change under dissimilar socioeconomic and population policy conditions. Based on the distinction between birth-spacing and birth-stopping behavior the analysis tests several propositions derived from the adaptation and innovation explanations of fertility decline. Results show that fertility regulation at low parities was largely absent among mature women in both countries, representing an innovative behavior among younger women. The introduction of fertility control, however, was highly dependent on women's socioeconomic position, particularly their educational and occupational characteristics. The strong family planning programs in Colombia resulted in a more rapid extension of contraceptive use, particularly female sterilization, and stopping behavior after two children relative to Venezuela. Results highlight the diversity of conditions under which fertility can decline in developing countries and the importance of family planning and other policy initiatives to understanding the different pathways towards lower fertility.     

Five levels of family planning progress: lessons from Thailand

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has developed terms to categorize nations on the basis of their level of modern contraceptive prevalence. Categorization reveals national family planning elements and circumstances common to each level, aiding policymakers in policy projection and appropriate program formulation. At the lowest prevalence level, emergent countries demonstrate less than 8% modern contraceptive prevalence. Launch countries are from 8-15%, growth countries from 16-34%, consolidation countries from 35-49%, while mature countries range from 50% and higher. Related country characteristics according to respective stages are explored in the paper. Thailand's successful progression through these stages is provided as a model example. For developing countries at a more broad level, launch stage countries should emphasize consensus building for family planning, and consider adopting a national family planning policy. Growth stage countries require effective communication programs, while countries in the consolidation phase need to attract groups from outside of the mainstream. Finally, countries in the mature stage should progressively realize greater responsibility in the private sector for service provision.     

Employment Quality: Are There Differences by Types of Contract?

Measuring welfare state generosity in developing and transitional welfare states is often challenged not only by lack of comparative quantitative data, but also by issues of conceptual stretching. This paper demonstrates and discusses the use of one of the key measures of welfare entitlement generosity developed in the comparative welfare state research in the context of post-communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). With the new time series data provided by the Comparative Welfare Entitlements Dataset CWED2, comparative approaches including the CEE countries have become feasible. This paper first discusses quantitative measures of welfare entitlement generosity in the tradition of the social rights of citizenship approach and how they can be applied for cross-country comparisons. It then demonstrates empirically how the emerging CEE welfare states’ generosity compares to mature “old” OECD welfare states. Finally, the paper shows the potential and the pitfalls of quantitative measures of welfare state generosity by discussing, to what extent do indicators of social security scheme generosity measure the same in established and emerging welfare states, which functional equivalents may be relevant in the context of emerging welfare states and how far can we stretch our theoretical concepts.     

关于发展老年卫生健康服务领域的若干思考

本文在界定了老年卫生健康服务领域的基础上,详细地分析了老年人对该领域产品或服务需求的基本现状,认为在现阶段发展老年卫生健康服务领域必须考虑到老年人的购买能力以及消费特点;还要依靠产业政策的扶持带动老年消费市场的持续发展。     

Regulation of reproduction rate in a cyclic population of the red-backed vole,Clethrionomys rufocanus bedfordiae

Summary Changes of the components of reproduction were analyzed quantitatively in a two-year cyclic population (which has two peaks in alternate years during a five-year census) of the red-backed vole,Clethrionomys rufocanus bedfordiae, with reference to its regulatory mechanism: (1) Variation in sex ratios was not associated with population phase or density, although a higher percentage of females in mature individuals was observed in the increase phase. (2) Females attained to sexual maturity at younger age and at lighter body weight than did males. All the youngest mature individuals were found in the low and the increase phases. Age and size at maturity became older and larger as the population went toward the peak phase. (3) Maturation rate was strongly associated with population phase and density; this component is an important and good parameter to predict population trend. Maturation rates were in the order, the low phase>the increase phase>the peak phase>the decline phase; the differences in the rates among these phases were significant. Maturation rate was somewhat depressed when the population density exceeded about 40 individuals/ha. Changes in age at maturity and in maturation rate are interpreted as derivative phenomena related to the population density and the capacity of the number of mature voles per unit area. (4) The maximum number of mature individuals were 26 males/ha and 29 females/ha; there was almost no increase of the number of mature voles at higher population densities over about 40 individuals/ha. The number of exclusive home ranges per hectare calculated from the observed range lengths did not differ much from the maximum number of mature voles of either sex. (5) Length of breeding period was shorter in the high-density years than in the low-density years; the breeding started earlier and ended earlier in the former than that in the latter. In the increase phase a few voles reproduced in winter. (6) The percentage of pregnant females was significantly lower in the peak phase than those in the other phases.     

Confirming and Expanding the Usefulness of the Extended Satisfaction With Life Scale (ESWLS)

The role of stress, particularly economic hindrance,in the prediction of global life-satisfaction wascontrasted between typically younger (n = 109)and more mature (n = 66) undergraduate students. Participants completed a Personal Projects AnalysisAppraisal Matrix including six stress dimensions, aswell as a single-item measure of globallife-satisfaction. Discriminant function analysesconducted on the students' Personal Project appraisalsrevealed that project challenge and economic hindranceaccounted for 25% of the variability inlife-satisfaction for the mature students, but none ofthe stress dimensions predicted life satisfaction forthe younger students. These results indicate that therole of stress in the prediction of life-satisfactionvaries as a function of age, with project challengeand economic hindrance playing a significant role inolder students' lives. The results are discussed inrelation to the developmental context of personalprojects as life tasks and the varying contexts foracademic pursuit between mature and typically youngerundergraduate students.     

Body mass changes inTrimeresurus flavoviridis (Viperidae) on Okinawa Island, Japan

Body masses of wild-caught habu,Trimeresurus flavoviridis, were measured with known error range. Habu larger than mature female size had steeper slope in length-mass regression than smaller individuals. Females outweighed males in most snout-ventlength classes and in early summer. Gravid females outweighed non-gravid ones by about 20% on the average, but the body mass ranges of the two groups overlapped. Through the body mass change in mature females, the proportion of gravid females was estimated to be about 0.5.     

Aging Couples in Dual-Career/Earner Families:

The authors present results of an empirical study of 611 mature couples in a dual-career or dual-earner famil where at least one spouse is a member of The National Retired Teacher's Association and is retired. We hypothesize that degree of role-sharing will va among mature couples in this special population on the basis of sexcted personal and social characteristics. Through discriminant analysis we identify which personal and social variables best predict whether or not couples currently share roles. We also determine the change in role-sharing over time for these couples. Our hypothesis is confirmed.