农村小城镇建设之我见

小城镇的形成和发展与乡镇企业的发展密切相关。首先，乡镇企业的发展是小城镇形成与发展的基础。现阶段兴起的农村小城镇，实际上是当地农村工业生产和商品流通和聚集地，由于乡镇企业是目前农村工业生产和商品流通的主体，因而只有在乡镇企业数量增加、规模扩大并逐步向小城镇集中的情况下，小城镇才能发展壮大。同时，乡镇企业的发展还是小城镇建设资金的重要来源。其次，小城镇的形成与发展又是乡镇企业进一步发展的必要条件。     

上海农村小城镇发展状况分析

农村城市化、工业化是社会发展到一定阶段的必然产物,也是上海农村小城镇发展的最终目标.上海农村小城镇经过数十年的努力,在镇区规模、基础设施、社区环境、乡镇企业、文化生活等多方面建设都取得一定成绩,特别是奉贤县红庙镇、青浦县华新镇等新兴城镇的崛起为农村城市化作了有益的尝试和探索.本文就农业普查数据对上海农村小城镇发展的现状、发展滞后的原因、发展前景等进行分析探讨.     

鄂尔多斯市小城镇发展存在的问题及对策建议

近十年来,鄂尔多斯市小城镇建设取得显著成效,主要表现为:总体规模逐渐扩大、综合实力明显增强、市场建设初具规模、基础设施逐步完善、社会服务功能增强,但就整体而言,鄂尔多斯市小城镇建设仍处于起步阶段,小城镇应有的社会经济功能尚未得到有效地发挥。 一、资金投入不足,基础设施发展滞后 由于鄂尔多斯市基础设施建设投入少、基础设施发展滞后,使小城镇的区位优势和自然优势得不到有效发     

从发展战略变革到组织制度创新——江苏城镇化进程的对策研究

由于发展战略变革不及时与组织创新不到位 ,作为小城镇学术研究与实践发展一度领先的江苏 ,在农村城镇化发展水平、产业人口集聚规模、基础设施建设、区域城镇化协调发展、小城镇后续发展动力和政策环境等方面呈现出严重滞后态势。据此 ,提出了从“遍地开花”转向“适度集中”的发展战略和从“产权改革”到“市民制度”的全方位组织制度创新等对策建议     

人力资源的测度及其在生产函数中的应用——以陕西省为例

测度一个地区人力资源的储量对合理开发本地区人力资源以实现经济长远发展具有重要的现实意义。通过大量数据调查,构建了陕西省人才资源指数体系,测定陕西省人力资源的存量,进一步利用永续盘存法测算了陕西省各期资本存量,在此基础上给出了陕西省生产函数的确切表达。分析表明：陕西省在1982-2004年期间的生产函数是规模报酬递增的,并且经济发展呈资本拉动型状态,人力资本对经济发展的支撑与拉动作用微弱。     

基于LMDI方法的陕西省能源消费碳足迹因素分解研究

综合考量能源强度、能源结构、人口规模及经济规模等因素对能源消费碳足迹的影响,以2005-2012年陕西省的相关数据为依据,用LMDI分解法对陕西省的能源消费碳足迹因素进行分解。结果表明:陕西省的能源消费碳足迹整体呈上升趋势,但存在一定的波动性;能源强度的提高和能源结构变化对陕西省碳排放量的增长有抑制作用,且能源强度的抑制作用明显,而能源结构的抑制作用相对微弱;经济规模的扩张是陕西省碳排放量增长的主要推动力,而人口规模的扩大对陕西省碳足迹的增长也有推动作用。     

省际人口迁移对基本养老保险基金缺口的影响研究——以陕西省为例

基于陕西省城镇职工基本养老保险相关统计资料,采用分账户法精算模型,测算出四种省际人口迁移方案下的2006—2050年间陕西省基本养老保险的基金缺口规模。研究发现:陕西省迁入人口呈现年轻态特征,多为处于就业初期的年轻人口,减缓了陕西省人口老龄化速度;在引入省际人口迁移因素时,基本养老保险基金缺口规模、增长速度明显降低,下降速度随人口迁入量的增加而增加。     

加速城乡一体化进程的理想抉择──试论小城镇建设的战略意义和发展思路

小城镇发展是农村城市化进程中的一个重要问题。本文结合对部分地区小城镇的普查资料，回顾和总结我省小城镇建设的经验教训，并通过对我省改革开放以来小城镇发展成就的描述，阐述了小城镇发展的必要性和可能性，以及实现城乡一体化的重要战略意义。最后就我省九十年代小城镇的发展思路，逐步形成小城镇发展的创新机制，以推进农村城市化进程，提出了若干建议和设想。     

陕西省人口承载力与适度人口定量研究

文章分析了人口承载力模型和适度人口量化测算模型,对陕西省人口承载力与适度人口规模进行定量估计,探讨了陕西省人口与经济社会、资源环境协调发展的对策。     

贵州省城镇化问题研究（续上期）

很长一段时间，尤其是改革开放初期，我国就存在着对城镇化发展道路的不同意见，一种意见认为，根据大多数发达国家城市化发展的经验，以及大城市在社会经济发展中所贡献的规模效益与辐射、服务功能，我国应当走集中型发展大城市的道路，甚至应当超前发展大城市。而另一种意见则认为，根据大多数发展中国家城市化发展的历史教训，大量农村人口涌入大城市，扩大了城市的贫富差距，增加了大城市基础设施和城市管理的压力，造成诸多难以治理的“城市病”，中国的经济还比较落后，应当走分散型的发展中小城市的道路，尤其是要积极发展小城镇。根据当时的历史背景和对事件的认识程度，在实际工作中我国倾向于后一种意见。自50年代就提出城市规模不宜过大，重点发展中小城市的指导思想，直至80年代我国仍明确地提出“严格控制大城市的规模，合理发展中小城市，积极发展小城镇”的发展战略。因此，一直到现在，大城市的发展便成了人们思维中的“禁区”。     

Comparison of methods of estimation of parameters of the weibull distribution

The generalised least squares, maximum likelihood, Bain-Antle 1 and 2, and two mixed methods of estimating the parameters of the two-parameter Weibull distribution are compared. The comparison is made using (a) the observed relative efficiency of parameter estimates and (b) themean squared relative error in estimated quantiles, to summarize the results of 1000 simulated samples of sizes 10 and 25. The results are that: generalised least squares is the best method of estimating the shape parameter ß the best method of estimating the scale parameter a depends onthe size of ß for quantile estimation maximum likelihood is best Bain-Antle 2 is uniformly the worst of the methods.     

Nonparametric estimation of the number of components of a superposition of renewal processes

Suppose all events occurring in an unknown number (ν)$(\nu )$ of iid renewal processes, with a common renewal distribution F  , are observed for a fixed time τ$\tau$, where both ν$\nu$ and F   are unknown. The individual processes are not known a priori, but for each event, the process that generated it is identified. For example, in software reliability application, the errors (or bugs) in a piece of software are not known a priori, but whenever the software fails, the error causing the failure is identified. We present a nonparametric method for estimating ν$\nu$ and investigate its properties. Our results show that the proposed estimator performs well in terms of bias and asymptotic normality, while the MLE of ν$\nu$ derived assuming that the common renewal distribution is exponential may be seriously biased if that assumption does not hold.     

Table of percentage points of ratios of linear combinations of order statistics of samples from exponential distributions

A form of the distribution function of ratios of linear combinations of order statistics of samples from an exponential distribution is given. From the distribution, tables of percentage points of the statistic for α = .05, .95, and n = 3(1)50, and for censoring up to five observations are presented. Use of the tables is made to find critical values of the most powerful scale and location invariant test of exponentiality against uniformity, and also to find critical values for a test of outliers in an exponential population.     

Comparison of dispersions of mixtures of ordered distributions

In the paper we consider mixtures of unknown stochastically ordered distribution functions according to known mixing distribution functions. We provide optimal lower and upper bounds on ratios of general dispersion measures of such mixtures. The bounds do not depend on the particular form of dispersion measure. We present applications of the results in reliability theory, insurance mathematics, Bayesian statistics, and regression analysis.     

Minutes of Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies

The general approach to generating random variates through transformations with multiple roots is discussed. Multinomial probabilities are determined for the selection of the different roots. An application of the general result yields a new and simple technique for the generation of variates from the inverse Gaussian distribution.     

Rate of consistency of one sample tests of location

Let X₁,…,X_n be a sample from a population with continuous distribution function F(x?θ) such that F(x)+F(-x)=1 and 0<F(x)<1, x?R¹. It is shown that the power- function of a monotone test of H: θ=θ₀ against K: θ>θ₀ cannot tend to 1 as θ?θ₀ → ∞ more than n times faster than the tails of F tend to 0. Some standard as well as robust tests are considered with respect to this rate of convergence.     

Estimate of variance of u-statistics

Let g(x₁,… , x_k) be a symmetric function with k arguments. Let U be a U-statistic based on a random sample of size n with kernel function g . In this paper, the problem of estimating var(U) is considered. Several estimators are compared by computer simulations and we conclude that two estimators, one is constructed as a U-statistic and the other is the bootstrap estimator, give good estimates for many U-statistics.     

Estimation of an indicator of the representativeness of survey response

Nonresponse is a major source of estimation error in sample surveys. The response rate is widely used to measure survey quality associated with nonresponse, but is inadequate as an indicator because of its limited relation with nonresponse bias. Schouten et al. (2009) proposed an alternative indicator, which they refer to as an indicator of representativeness or R-indicator. This indicator measures the variability of the probabilities of response for units in the population. This paper develops methods for the estimation of this R-indicator assuming that values of a set of auxiliary variables are observed for both respondents and nonrespondents. We propose bias adjustments to the point estimator proposed by Schouten et al. (2009) and demonstrate the effectiveness of this adjustment in a simulation study where it is shown that the method is valid, especially for smaller sample sizes. We also propose linearization variance estimators which avoid the need for computer-intensive replication methods and show good coverage in the simulation study even when models are not fully specified. The use of the proposed procedures is also illustrated in an application to two business surveys at Statistics Netherlands.     

SNA关于机构部门分类的修订与中国机构部门的调整研究

 本文对2008SNA关于机构部门分类的修订进行了梳理。对比了2008SNA和1993SNA在机构部门与机构单位内容上的主要区别,分析了中国国民经济核算体系关于机构部门分类所存在的问题,提出了机构部门相关核算方法的调整建议。