Subjective Measures of Employment Opportunities and Interregional Migration

Abstract. Empirical studies of interregional mobility routinely use regional unemployment differentials to characterize economic incentives to move between regions. In this paper, we present a new regional labour market indicator computed from survey data in which respondents are asked to evaluate local employment opportunities in their resident municipality and surroundings. The subjective measures of satisfaction with local employment opportunities have positive and significant impact on interregional migration flows, also when controlling for traditional measures of regional labour market conditions, including the regional unemployment rate. Contrary to most European studies, we find that regional labour market conditions have a strong effect on interregional migration flows.     

European Integration and the Integration of European Labour Markets1

Abstract. Will European economic and monetary union bring about a unification of European labour markets, and is there likely to be a convergence of patterns of labour market organisation among Community countries? The evidence discussed suggests that a major increase in unskilled mobility across the EC is unlikely, at least concerning EC citizens. Among skilled labour, a major increase in international mobility is also unlikely on account of differences in skill organisation among countries. In contrast, the integration of European capital is causing some integration of enterprise internal labour markets across national borders as firms seek to integrate their managerial and technical workforces. In the “high-tech” area, skills are in a state of flux, and the possibility that European labour markets will emerge is much stronger than for other categories.     

Trade and Labour Markets: Vertical and Regional Differentiation in Italy

The labour market misfortunes of the less skilled and rapid growth of international trade in manufactured goods with less advanced countries are linked by the paradoxical observation that trade theorists are in the forefront of those denying the importance of trade in income distribution. This paper analyses this conclusion by stressing the importance of vertical differentiation of trade flows and regional differentiation of skills in order to identify labour market effects of trade integration. Vertical and regional differentiation in trade and labour markets are analysed for a country, Italy, where these two elements seem to play a crucial role. The results show a likely displacement effect on unskilled labour due to trade flows with less advanced countries. Given the characteristics of Italian trade and labour markets, a stronger trade‐induced displacement effect on demand for unskilled labour takes place in the North of the country. Thus the vertical differentiation in Italian intra‐industry trade is a warning against understating the effect of trade on labour markets if product heterogeneity is not adequately considered. The regional differentiation of skill intensity is another warning against understating the effect of trade on labour markets whenever cross‐sectoral effects and the change in relative specialization are not adequately considered.     

Sources of Job and Worker Flows: Evidence from a Panel of Regions

Abstract. This study explores the structure and the dynamics of regional job and worker flows. The measures of job and worker flows are related to economic fluctuations, demographic factors and industry structure by employing the data of 85 Finnish regions over the period 1988–97. It is shown that labour market dynamics differ markedly between regions. As in previous analyses of linked employer–employee data, job and worker flows are shown to behave cyclically. In addition, the results indicate that observable differences in regional productivity, in‐migration, demographics and industry structure help to explain the prevailing disparities in regional labour markets.     

Multinationals and Skills Policy Networks: HRM as a Player in Economic and Social Concerns

This paper uses an embeddedness framework to reconceptualize HRM agency over the external labour market, and in so doing bring into focus the societal implications of HRM. Drawing on qualitative data from 53 key informants in two English regions, we identify the ways in which the subsidiaries of foreign multinationals (MNCs) engage with labour market skills actors. Our findings reveal how power structures are mobilized by local economic actors to align labour market skills with MNCs’ demand priorities. We show that multinationals may seek to partially endogenize (i.e. take ownership of) the resources of local labour markets when their competitive value is redefined in social as well as economic terms, and demonstrate that the social structure of sub‐national institutional governance arrangements and firm strategic action on skills creates the conduit through which resource endogenization may occur. Theoretically, this paper identifies the social structure of networks as a casual mechanism to bridge divergent skill interests, which is mobilized when network actors have the capacity to frame fields within the social structure of the network around ideas on economic sustainability and moral interest.     

Labour Markets and Organisational Change: Future Working Structures for an Ageing Work Force

Flexible manufacturing systems, team work with decentralisation of decision-making, integration of tasks and multiple allocation across functional barriers demand a skilled work force prepared for continuous learning and adaptation. It is common to see a younger, well-educated and trained work force as being required for such a production environment. A closer empirical look at most of the internal labour markets in this study shows that existing labour market structures do not match this image. Existing labour markets consist very often of an older (and ageing) labour force with relatively low skills and with resistance to continuous training. These structural features have, over the last ten years — despite the existence of costly early retirement measures and new entries into internal labour markets — not much improved, and in many cases have even deteriorated. While age-related exit measures have contributed to maintaining sound corporate cultures in offering socially cushioned exit options and have also prevented internal labour markets from growing older too rapidly, they have — in the “lean employment environment” of mature industrial sectors — not led to a sustained restructuring of internal labour markets. The ending of many of the age-related exit measures owing to their impact on public and company budgets could lead to a growing mismatch between the structure of demand and the structure of supply in internal labour markets. This could have negative effects on company performance and increase the probability of unemployment for workers if no proactive policies for managing the age problem are introduced. Such proactive policies might consist of appropriate age-related training, age-related flexible working time and work organisation patterns. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Labour Market and Decentralized Decision-making: An Institutional Approach

The persistent failure in the labour market is due to uncertainty and asymmetric information, and relies on a reconsideration of the bargaining process. This process is not generated by individual action but rather by the behaviour of social groups and institutions in which State intervention can immprove the efficiency in matching demand and supply. In this framework we will discuss the ways by which institutional decentralization can be implemented in a labour market characterized by deep regional differences and by long-term unemployment persistence as in Italy. The main conclusion is that this policy option better fits the active labour policies. In fact the actual aim of such supply-side policies is to reduce the regional and skill mismatches and therefore it needs a substantial involvement of local public agencies.     

Benchmarking Labour Market Performances and Policies

The recent EU initiatives on employment policy and the “Luxembourg employment strategy” underscore the relevance of benchmarking as an instrument for improving labour market performance and labour policy effectiveness. This paper presents the major results of a research project aimed at exploring the application of benchmarking techniques to convergence between the European labour markets. After synthetically describing the development of benchmarking techniques in the private and the public sectors, the paper addresses the crucial question of defining labour market performance and presents the possibility of creating labour market performance and policy benchmarks through the construction of efficiency frontiers. A second possibility explored is the radar-chart approach, a presentation technique that allows both for single dimension and overall performance monitoring. The paper then faces the problem of broadening the scope of benchmarking from the identification of benchmarks to the understanding of performance gaps through more comprehensive analytical tools. In this area, useful contributions are provided by the employment systems and the transitional labour markets approaches. The concluding section stresses the role of normative decisions, as well as the possible political challenges implied by a thorough application of benchmarking techniques to labour market convergence.     

Consequences of the Disarmament Process for the Labour Market in Germany

In Germany the international peace process has important consequences for the economy, especially for the labour market. The German armed forces will be reduced from 520,000 to 370,000. Nearly three quarters of the approximately 830,000 foreign soldiers stationed in Germany are in the process of leaving the country. Parallel to this there will be a reduction of about 100,000 jobs for civil employees. There are strong indicators showing that the market of civil employees is an “internal market” (of the type often described by labour market segmentation theory) and there are high barriers against the mobility of workers. Measures of active labour market policy (especially of the German Federal Office of Labour) supports the transition of civil workers into new jobs. These provisions are assisted by measures of regional policy in regions with relatively high unemployment rates, where the dissolution and reduction of garrisons affect the prosperity of entire regions. In conglomerates with high growth rates, however, positive consequences of the disarmament process can be expected.     

Do Foreigners Cushion Native Jobs? The Case of European Regions in the 1990s

Abstract. This paper investigates whether foreigners cushion native labour during the phases of the economic cycle. The theoretical model, based on the work of Blanchard and Katz (Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 0(1): 1–75, 1992), assumes that foreigners supply labour with a higher wage elasticity than natives. The empirical analysis, based on an unbalanced panel of 161 European regions during 1988–97, shows that following a labour demand shock the variability of native employment growth is lower the higher the proportion of foreign citizens in the local labour force. These results suggest that foreigners absorb some of the effects of the shock, shielding natives from its full impact. The analysis also reveals that the main channel mediating this ‘cushioning’ effect is the inter‐regional migration of foreign workers, followed (as a far distant second) by their higher/lower unemployment rates.     

城乡二元结构对产品扩散的影响研究:以彩电采用为例

创新的扩散是产品市场形成的主要机制。对于中国市场而言,研究地区差异对创新扩散的影响,有助于理解中国区域市场的特点和差异。本文以彩电产品为例,研究了消费品在我国不同区域的扩散及其影响因素。研究表明,区域经济发展水平、人口受教育程度以及人口流动性对新产品扩散有显著的影响。特别地,本文通过实证研究,首次发现:发展中国家普遍存在的城乡二元结构也对新产品的扩散有显著的影响,二元经济结构特征越明显,创新越不容易扩散。     

A Stock-Flow Model to Analyse and Forecast Labour Market Variables

ABSTRACT: In confronting problems of employment and unemployment, students of the labour market, and economists in general have focused mainly on the determination of the level of such variables. Much less attention has been paid to such questions as: how many persons have entered the area of employment and the labour force in various time periods, and how many have exited; their sex and age distribution; and the determinants of the level and structure of flows amongst the various labour market conditions. Yet it appears superfluous to underscore the relevance of such questions. To illustrate, suffice it to recall that in Italy, the present level of employment is essentially the same today as it was in 1961‘; but this has not prevented whole generations of young people from 'stably’entering the employment area, albeit with varying degrees of difficulty in different periods. As for the numerous statistical surveys of labour market flows in a range of countries, and as for the works of job search theorists², it should be observed that such surveys and analyses essentially concern conjunctural phenomena. Consequently, these authors have paid no attention to the distinction between short-run turnover and generational turnover, or to the extremely singular characteristics of the statistical data on flows. An attempt to construct labour market models that present an integrated version of the 'structural’aspects of the market in terms of stock and flows is therefore lacking. The present study sets forth various objectives and is divided into two parts. In the first, an analysis of several controversial terminological aspects of the concepts of stock and flow is presented, and an attempt is made to point out those theoretical structures which have been responsible for the long-prevailing neglect of the labour market flows, particularly long-run flows. Then the problem of defining the concepts of short-run and generational turnover will be confronted in light of an analysis of the statistical methods used in the surveys; finally, a methodology for measuring generational flows is proposed. In the second part of the paper a model based on generational flows, as previously defined, will be presented together with a computational procedure capable to produce long run estimates of alternative scenarios of labour demand and supply and of the structure of employment by sex and age. A brief summary of some of the empirical results obtained applying our model and forecasting procedure to the Italian labour market will also be discussed in the final part of the paper.     

Emigration and Immigration in Italy: Recent Trends

ABSTRACT: During the eighties Italy has evolved into being a receiver of immigration. However, the existence of large Italian communities abroad, and the persistence of exit migratory flows (although amply compensated by re-entry flows) show that the connotation of Italy as a country of emigration still persists. This paper points out the differing composition of present immigration flows to Italy compared to those of Italian migratory flows towards the more industrially advanced European countries over the past decades. The labour forces that constitute these present day immigration flows often possess medium to high educational qualifications, and are more frequently absorbed into the tertiary and agricultural markets, rather than the industrial sector. These immigrants rarely have regular, unionized occupations, and satisfy a demand for precarious, unstable labour which is in expansion in Italy, as in other countries. Furthermore, these immigration flows are directed not only towards those regions with high employment rates, but also to those with high unemployment rates. Thus, the implications are that the character of present day emigration can only be clearly understood by taking into account the highly segmented aspect of the labour market.     

Regional Disparities and Labour Mobility: the Euro-11 versus the USA

In this paper we assess whether regional disparities in the euro area stimulate labour mobility, using migration behaviour in US states as a benchmark. Large regional disparities within European countries and size differences between them and US states led us to select regions as the appropriate unit of analysis for Europe. While the level of net immigration flows with respect to population is similar in the USA and the euro area, our study shows that its sensitivity to regional disparities differs considerably. Indeed, migration is much more significantly influenced by income disparities in the USA than it is in the Euro-11, both in the short and the long term. Furthermore, the responsiveness of net migration inflows to shocks to the relative unemployment rate is negative in the regions of the USA, but nil in those of the Euro-11. Finally, risk factors (identified in the theoretical model as the variance of income) are significant determinants of migration decisions in Europe but not in the USA.     

从农产品价格保护程度和市场整合看入世对中国农业的影响

一、引言在过去２０年的改革过程中 ,农民收入稳定上升 ,数以亿计的人摆脱了贫困 (世界银行 ,２０００)。但是 ,就总体情况而言 ,农民收入要低于城镇人口的收入。经济发展与转型曾经带来了中国农村２０年的进步 ,同时也遗留下来一些诸如收入分配不均的问题。现在国内政策又在进一步推进贸易与投资自由化 ,从过去２０年的改革经验 ,我们不难推测 ,这一努力将同样带来积极与消极两方面的影响。一方面 ,贸易自由化可以带来效率的提高、新技术以及提升中国经济增长的机会。另一方面 ,市场与投资自由化将在所难免地加剧中国农村已经出现的一些消…     

The myth of price convergence under economic integration: A proposed explanation for the difference in food prices across European countries

Conventional globalization theory states that regional economic integration will precede price standardization across participating countries due to the increased buying power of large retail groups and parallel imports. The resulting price corridor should merely reflect differences in logistic costs and short-term, local competitive actions. Yet, this study uses panel data from 25 European countries to examine how hefty food and beverage price differentials between regions remained constant over the last decade. Income, store productivity, and market concentration all contribute to the explanation for regional price differences. These findings suggest that, contrary to straight-line globalization theory, large European retailers’ decisions can influence price convergence and maintain important price dispersion between economically integrated countries. We provide recommendations to enhance market integration.     

Local Labour Markets Identification: a United Point of View*

Abstract. In this paper a unifying point of view is discussed of the methodologies and algorithms actually proposed for the identification of local labour market. The emphasis is on the main contributions to two broad methodological areas of functional regionalization and homogeneous spatial clustering. Most Italian contributions are considered in detail and some critical notes are pointed out in order to show that the methodological background is just the same for both approaches. The interpretations of the outputs of the proposed methodologies is discussed in terms of local labour markets.     

Effects of Regional Labour Markets on Migration Flows,by Education Level

European economies display large variations in unemployment rates across regions as well as between education groups. Insufficient labour mobility is widely believed to contribute to higher regional disparities and overall unemployment, but few studies have compared mobility responses of different education groups to regional shocks. This paper employs administrative registers covering the entire Norwegian population to compute annual time series from 1994 to 2004 of migration flows and regional labour market conditions by education level for 90 travel‐to‐work areas. We find that regional disparities in unemployment rates are decreasing in education level, whereas the response of migration flows to regional unemployment shocks is increasing in education level. The results suggest that low regional mobility of low‐educated workers may contribute to higher regional disparities and higher overall unemployment among the low educated.     

Crime and Labour Market Opportunities in Italy (1993–2002)

Abstract. This paper investigates the relationship between labour market conditions and crime in Italy accounting for both age and gender in the unemployment measure and considering regional disparities between the North‐Centre and the South of Italy. Using regional data over the period 1993–2002, we study the impact of wages and unemployment on different types of crime. To mitigate omitted variables bias, we control extensively for demographic and socio‐economic variables. Empirical results suggest that unemployment has a large and positive effect on crime rates in southern regions. Our results are robust to model specification, endogeneity, changes in the classification of crimes, and finally, to alternative definitions of unemployment.     

股市联动中的“涟漪效应”

本文提出"涟漪效应"来解释国际股市联动性的大幅波动。所谓涟漪效应就是中心市场特有波动对其它市场间联动性产生影响的现象。本文采用滚动窗口和DCC-GARCH的方法计算了市场特有波动和收益相关系数,以9个主要市场指数为样本对国际股票市场中涟漪效应进行实证检验。研究结果显示,2007年后国际股市联动性变化与美国市场的涟漪效应有关,美国市场特有波动升高（降低）会导致全球股市联动性升高（降低）,而其他市场特有波动并没有类似影响。美国市场与其他市场间联动性基本不受第三方市场特有波动的影响,A股与美股联动性的增强是造成A股与其它股市联动性变化的主要原因。此外,研究特有波动与相关系数的关系能帮助我们识别国际股市中风险传递方向,本文结果显示欧洲市场对其他市场的影响非常有限,以往研究可能高估了欧洲市场的影响力。本文丰富了股市联动性影响因素的研究,对理解市场联动性变化、评估市场影响力等问题有重要意义。