Examining the Joint Roles of Responsibility and Reinforcement History in Recommitment*

The present study examined the combined effects of responsibility and reinforcement history on investment responses during a series of failure experiences. Subjects performed a variation of the A and S decision case [27] under one of six conditions varying in responsibility (high, low) and reinforcement history (variable partial, fixed partial, no training). When investment responses at the start of the period of continuous losses were examined, results indicated that high responsibility and a variable history of reinforcement are both necessary conditions for escalation to occur. When later responses were included in the analysis, reinforcement history and time were the main factors affecting recommitment responses. These results suggest possible refinements to current models of escalation.     

Decision Making in an Automated Environment: The Effects of Anonymity and Proximity with a Group Decision Support System*

Recent advances in information systems technology have made it possible to support the work of interacting groups using networked personal computers. A laboratory experiment was conducted using a group decision support system to evaluate effects of anonymity and proximity on group process in automated group problem solving. Twenty groups of four persons each performed an idea-generating task using an interactive electronic brainstorming program. This experiment's main findings were: (1) Group members working anonymously and apart generated more comments. (2) Working in the same room increased satisfaction. (3) Highest levels of perceived system effectiveness were reported under anonymity.     

INFLUENCE OF POWER BASES IN ORGANIZATIONAL DECISION MAKING: A CONTINGENCY MODEL*

The relative influence of four power bases was investigated in four decision-making contexts using data from forty successfully implemented decisions. The analysis suggests that position power decreases in influence while resource power and political power increase in influence as decision contexts vary from less to more uncertainty. Expert power derives its influence when organizational uncertainty is low and when technical uncertainty is reduced, whereas political power thrives when organizational uncertainty is high and when technical uncertainty remains high. Indexing the influence of power bases provides greater understanding of decision processes than the sociological or social-psychological approaches of studying participation.     

Exploring Contrasting Formulations of Expectancy Theory*

The explanatory potential of four forms of expectancy theory with additive and multiplicative expectancy terms and linear and nonlinear valence functions were contrasted. A behavioral decision-making theory approach was used when 101 subjects were asked to make 128 hypothetical job-choice decisions. More than 25,800 decisions under a within-subjects framework were analyzed. Results indicate that the majority (83 percent) of subjects employed additive or multiplicative expectancy models with linear valence functions. However, the predictive efficacy of the expectancy theory model was improved for 17 percent of the subjects when nonlinear valence terms were introduced. The findings imply that different functional forms of expectancy theory may be needed to model individuals' decision-making processes.     

An Application of Expectancy Theory to Explain a Manager's Intention to Use a Decision Support System

A continuing gap exists between the capabilities of sophisticated computer-based information systems and the extent to which these systems are used by individuals. Studies which have examined the relationship between system utilization and various user, system, implementation, and organizational variables have provided few consistent findings. A new approach to this topic is suggested by a recent study by Davis, Bagozzi, and Warshaw [11], which indicates that individuals' intentions to use a system determine subsequent use. A large body of psychology-based research also supports this relationship between behavioral intentions and subsequent behavior. This study employs expectancy theory, which has often been used to examine behavioral intentions, to explain managers' intentions to use a decision support system (DSS). The results imply that the variables of the expectancy force model are determinants of a manager's behavioral intentions to use a DSS, and the variables of the expectancy valence model are determinants of the attractiveness of using a DSS to a manager.     

Linear and Nonlinear Valence Functions: A Behavioral Decision-Making Assessment

In Vroom's [45] original formulation of expectancy theory, the relationship between affect and perceived instrumentality was assumed to be linear. Others have suggested that such a relationship may be better modeled by a nonlinear, utility-type function [30]. The current research contrasts the predictive ability of two linear and four nonlinear functions. Using four levels of McClelland's [26] needs for achievement, affiliation, and power as instrumentalities, 101 subjects provided more than 12,900 decisions on the valences of jobs in a behavioral decision-making experiment. Nearly 40 percent of the subjects exhibited nonlinear valence functions. The results emphasize the need to specify the appropriate functional form of the valence component to enhance predictive accuracy and to prevent misspecification problems.     

Structure of Uncertainty and Decision Making: An Experimental Investigation*

Decisions in the real world usually involve imprecise information or uncertainty about the precesses by which outcomes may be determined. This research reports the results of a laboratory experiment which examined whether the structure of uncertainty, namely, both the center and the range of the probability distribution describing the uncertainty, is an important determinant of choice. Specifically, it examines how the uncertainty of audit by the Internal Revenue Service of income tax returns affects taxpayers' decisions about intentional noncompliance. The context is relevant as almost nothing is known about how taxpayers assess detection risks using the probability information they have. The study focuses on intentional noncompliance. The factors affecting it are distinct and separate from those affecting unintentional noncompliance. Other factors that affect intentional tax noncompliance, such as risk, tax rates, and penalty rates, were controlled in the experiment. It was hypothesized that the lower the mean and the lesser the range (ambiguity) of the perceived audit probability, the greater the international noncompliance. As hypothesized, the analysis indicates that both the mean and the range of the perceived audit probability rate affect intentional noncompliance, though the effect of ambiguity is greater at a relatively higher level of mean. This result suggests that the strength of the information describing an uncertain event is captured better by both the mean and the range of the uncertainty than either of those components singly.     

Decision Making,Scaling, and Number Crunching

The purpose of this note is to comment on the artificiality of using known scales of measurement (or conveniently improvised numbers) to make decisions. In particular, the pitfalls of trying to please the decision maker and of using normalization as a number crunching tool are discussed. Finally, an example is given to show what is needed to develop a workable and theoretically sound theory for multi-criteria decisions and to show that the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) meets these demands.     

Formulation Tactics and the Success of Organizational Decision Making*

One hundred and seventy-seven cases profiling organizational decisions were analyzed to determine how managers carry out formulation as they initiate a decision-making process. Analysis revealed that formulation was carried out by applying problem, idea, target, and reframing tactics. Decision adoption rates, decision value, and time to carry out the decision-making process were used to determine the success of these tactics, controlling for situational effects of importance, urgency, resources, and management level. Reframing was found to be the most successful tactic under all conditions, but was the least frequently used by decision makers. Problem and idea tactics were the least successful and success did not improve with additional resources, but these tactics were used more often than the other tactics. Problem tactics were even less successful when applied to urgent and important decisions. Target tactics were surprisingly effective for crises and important decisions. Decision makers seem prone to use ineffective formulation tactics and give little consideration to the opportunities or constraints imposed by the situation as a tactic is selected.     

A COMPARISON OF UNIT,SUBJECTIVE, AND REGRESSION MEASURES OF SECOND-LEVEL VALENCES IN EXPECTANCY THEORY

Two different decision-making exercises are compared with unit weights and with traditional Likert scales as measures of second-level valences in expectancy theory. Second-level valences are measured across different levels of outcomes in each exercise and compared to the traditional subjective- and unit-weight measures. In the first experiment, the job-preference decisions of 21 undergraduates are examined using a decision-making exercise involving 24 hypothetical jobs described in terms of three intrinsic instrumentalities at two levels. In the second experiment, a different 21 undergraduates make job-preference decisions in a decision-making exercise involving 27 hypothetical jobs described in terms of three extrinsic instrumentalities at three levels. The β-weight (standardized regression coefficient) measures of the second-level valences are found to be more powerful predictors of job-preference decisions than either subjective-weight or unit-weight measures, both before and after shrinkage. They also had higher cross validations, exhibited higher test-retest reliability, and allowed testing of a quadratic motivational effect in the three-level exercise.     

The Relationship between Procedural Rationality and Political Behavior in Strategic Decision Making

Despite the central place of rationality and political behavior in the decision-making literature, we know little about the relationship between these two dimensions. Can decisions be made using both rational and political methods, or must managers use one approach or the other? These questions were addressed in a study of 61 strategic decisions in 24 companies using a multiple-informant, structured interview protocol. Results indicate that procedural rationality and political behavior are independent dimensions of the strategic decision-making process. The implications of our findings for future strategic decision-making research are discussed.     

Decision Processes for Developing Strategic Applications of Information Systems: A Contingency Approach*

Strategic applications of information systems (IS) are considered by IS researchers to be determined by contextual factors such as environmental uncertainty, and influenced by attributes of the processes preceding them, such as planning and top management support. For better management of the process leading to these applications, it is essential to understand the relationship between process attributes and contextual factors. Utilizing a contingency approach, this article takes a step toward such an understanding. Based on successful strategic IS applications from 81 large companies, it examines the relationship between the context of these applications and the decision-making process leading to them. The results indicate that the external environment is related to whether a rational or political decision-making process is used. The IS function seems to influence the use of the decision process implied by IS researchers, one in which the top management champions the strategic application, while the IS managers contribute by conducting in-depth analysis. However, the organization structure was not related to any decision process attribute. The implications of these findings for future research and practice are also discussed.     

Determining Differences in Expert Judgment: Implications for Knowledge Acquisition and Validation*

In knowledge acquisition, it is often desirable to aggregate the judgments of multiple experts into a single system. In some cases this takes the form of averaging the judgments of those experts. In these situations it is desirable to determine if the experts have different views of the world before their individual judgments are aggregated. In validation, multiple experts often are employed to compare the performance of expert systems and other human actors. Often those judgments are then averaged to establish performance quality of the expert system. An important part of the comparison process should be determining if the experts have a similar view of the world. If the experts do not have similar views, their evaluations of performance may differ, resulting in a meaningless average performance measure. Alternatively, if all the validating experts do have similar views of the world then the validation process may result in paradigm myopia.     

An Empirical Investigation of Information Search Strategies with Implications for Decision Support System Design

Understanding how people search through and combine information before making decisions is an important concern in the study of decision making and in the design of decision support systems (DSS). The purpose of this study is to examine DSS search strategies in relation to the body of empirical research on information load. Prior research is examined in relation to basic empirically-testable hypotheses and compared to the results of this study as a way of validating the procedures used here. The transfer of information load empirical research to a DSS scenario is confirmed statistically. Then, results of an analysis of information search patterns under DSS conditions are described. Finally, implications for DSS design are discussed in terms of possible search support mechanisms for specific search strategies.     

A Simulation of Partial Information Use in Decision Making: Implications for DSS Design

Information matrices are often the output produced by a decision support system. These matrices are a common method for expressing a decision situation under different decision-making scenarios. The decisions involved in designing a decision support system to generate the information matrix are important and involve several cost and benefit components. A designer needs guidance in making effective design decisions in this context. Such guidance can be provided by considering the relationships among specific design decisions, costs, and benefits. The general objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive framework for this purpose. This study is the first to develop and present a comprehensive cost-benefit framework for evaluating design decisions for a variety of scenarios. The specific objective of this research is to provide guidance regarding the number of available information dimensions to incorporate in a computer-based decision aid. Simulation experiments are conducted with a completely specified model based on the cost-benefit framework (including needed assumptions) to evaluate how many information dimensions to include for a specific information matrix size to achieve a balance between information use costs and decision quality. Based upon extensive simulation analyses for a hypothetical decision maker, the practical guideline found for designers is to include only the top half of the relevant information dimensions in any specific decision support system. Over a large number of repeating choice decisions, the savings in cognitive effort and information gathering costs clearly offset relatively minor losses in decision quality.     

Planning Forward by Looking Backward: Retrospective Thinking in Strategic Decision Making*

Retrospective thinking occurs whenever one remembers something from the past, but one can also think retrospectively about hypothetical future events, by imagining that the event has already transpired and then working backward in the mind from the future toward the present. Designers, artists, planners, and other creative individuals utilize retrospective thinking when they mentally envision the object they wish to create and then thinkabout how it might be constructed. Some theorists and some previous research have suggested that forward and backward thinking are different cognitive processes, but there has been little investigation on the nature of these differences. This article examines the literature and describes a laboratory study designed to investigate retrospective thinking as a technique for increased idea generation. Subjects (n=64) were professional planners and managers with an average business experience of over 20 years. In a planning task, significantly more ideas were generated in the retrospective thinking mode than in the prospective mode, but the ideas were not found to be of greater quality. Evidence emerged that a subset of subjects were better able to make use of the retrospective technique, suggesting that selection along with training may be appropriate for the technique's mosteffective use.     

Involving Information System Users in Defining System Requirements: The Influence of Procedural Justice Perceptions on User Attitudes and Performance

This study incorporates the theoretical framework of procedural justice into the information system (IS) user participation research paradigm. In a field setting, 726 subjects representing 59 local newspaper sites took part in a fully randomized, longitudinal experiment. Four increasing levels of participation concerning specifying system requirements were manipulated: mute, voice, choice, and voice plus choice. As the participation level increased, procedural justice judgments increased correspondingly. Perceptions of control over the development process, satisfaction with the outcome, and objective measures of performance increased from the mute to voice conditions, were unchanged from the voice to choice conditions, and increased again as participation was manipulated at the highest level—voice plus choice. The rich contextual field setting in which this experiment was conducted, combined with strong attitudinal and performance results, encourage researchers to integrate the psychology of procedural justice into the study of IS user participation.     

An Empirical Investigation of the Effects of Decision Aids on Problem-Solving Processes*

Despite the growing number of investigations examining decision support systems (DSS), relatively few empirical studies have evaluated the effects of DSS on problem-solving processes. This study uses protocol analysis to investigate the impact of a specific decision aid on problem-solving processes in a semi-structured problem. Results indicate that decision aids influence the problem-solving processes of decision makers. The effect of a decision aid is found to be contingent on familiarity with the decision aid, task familiarity, and the interaction of these two factors. Suggestions for incorporating interaction effects and problem-solving processes into future examinations are proposed.