Women and pensions: a decade of progress?

This Issue Brief compares changes from 1989 to 1998 in pension participation, accumulation, and allocation for employed women, versus employed men, ages 18-62. In addition, it provides an estimate of the gender "pension gap" in defined contribution accumulations, contrasts this with the gender "earnings gap," and provides explanations for these differences. Between 1989 and 1998, the percentage of employed women with a pension or retirement plan at their current job increased from 43 percent to 45 percent, compared with a decline from 53 percent to 52 percent for employed men. For both women and men, the percentage with defined contribution retirement plans increased dramatically, while the percentage with defined benefit pension plans dropped sharply. Between 1989 and 1998, the ratio of women's to men's defined contribution plan accumulations increased from 40 percent to 44 percent, indicating a narrowing of the gender pension gap. However, the narrowing was concentrated among the cohort ages 45-53 in 1998. The gender pension gap increased for women in other age groups. Gender differences in defined contribution plan accumulations can be attributed to differences in earnings and job characteristics. Between 1989 and 1998, for workers with defined contribution plans, the ratio of women's to men's earnings remained unchanged at 57 percent. Employed women with defined contribution plans are more than twice as likely to earn less than $25,000 per year than employed men with defined contribution plans, but almost five times less likely to earn more than $100,000 per year. From 1989 to 1998, the percentage of employed men with defined contribution balances invested mostly in low-risk, low-return assets declined much more than the percentage of employed women who followed that investment strategy. Whereas the percentages of men and women with retirement plans invested mostly in bonds were nearly equal at 31 percent and 32 percent in 1989, respectively, by 1998, 20 percent of women (compared with 14 percent of men) had their retirement plans invested mostly in bonds. The trend toward defined contribution plans and riskier retirement portfolios has resulted in significant wealth accumulation over the decade. In real terms, both men and women have greater retirement plan wealth, but increases have been larger for men than for women. Since there is no evidence that plan provisions vary by gender, improvements in the gender pension gap will come only with changes in women's labor force experience and investment decision-making.     

Risk-taking behavior in the presence of nonconvex asset dynamics

The growing literature on poverty traps emphasizes the links between multiple equilibria and risk avoidance. However, multiple equilibria may also foster risk-taking behavior by some poor people. We illustrate this idea with a simple analytical model in which people with different wealth and ability endowments make investment and risky activity choices in the presence of known nonconvex asset dynamics. This model underscores a crucial distinction between familiar static concepts of risk aversion and forward-looking dynamic risk responses to nonconvex asset dynamics. Even when unobservable preferences exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion, observed behavior may suggest that risk aversion actually increases with wealth near perceived dynamic asset thresholds. Although high ability individuals are not immune from poverty traps, they can leverage their capital endowments more effectively than lower ability types and are therefore less likely to take seemingly excessive risks. In general, linkages between behavioral responses and wealth dynamics often seem to run in both directions. Both theoretical and empirical poverty trap research could benefit from making this two-way linkage more explicit.     

Changes in Firm Pension Policy: Trends Away from Traditional Defined Benefit Plans

In light of the recent concerns regarding the solvency of Social Security’s Old-Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI), private pensions may play an increasingly important role in retirement welfare of US retirees. However, the private pension landscape has evolved in ways that may result in lower private pension wealth for retirees. One recent such phenomenon involves the conversion of traditional defined benefit pension plans to cash balance plans, which results in lower pension benefits for many workers. In this study, I investigated how characteristics of the firm’s workforce influenced whether the firm converted their traditional pension plan to a cash balance plan and how these characteristics related to the firm’s pension plan policy more generally. Using the Longitudinal Employer-Household Data and pension plan data from the Department of Labor/Internal Revenue Service and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, I found little evidence of workforce age distribution effects on the likelihood of DB plan conversion to a cash balance plan in the 1990s. More generally, I consistently found positive associations between firms with older and more female workforces and defined contribution plans during the same time.     

Gender inequalities in pensions: different components similar levels of dispersion

While the average gender gap in pensions is quite well documented, gender differences in the distribution of pensions have rarely been explored. We show in this paper that pension dispersion is very similar for men and women within the French pension system of a given sector (public or private). Gender differences are less marked among retired civil servants than among former private sector employees. However, the determinants of these inequalities are not the same for men and women. Using a regression-based decomposition of the Gini coefficient, we find that pension dispersion is mostly due to dispersion of the reference wage for all retirees but gender differences exist. For women, in particular, pension dispersion is also due to the dispersion in contribution periods. We also decompose the Gini coefficient by source of pension to measure the impact of institutional rules (minimum pensions, survivor’s pension) on the extent of pension inequality. Unexpectedly, we find that the impact of minimum pensions is limited, although slightly larger for civil servants than for private-sector employees. Survivor’s pension schemes, on the other hand, contribute positively to pension dispersion among retired women.     

TIME PREFERENCE AND THE DISTRIBUTIONS OF WEALTH AND INCOME

This paper examines the connection between time preference heterogeneity and economic inequality in a deterministic environment. Specifically, we extend the standard neoclassical growth model to allow for (1) heterogeneity in consumers' discount rates, (2) direct preferences for wealth, and (3) human capital formation. The second feature prevents the wealth distribution from collapsing into a degenerate distribution. The third feature generates a strong positive correlation between earnings and capital income across consumers. A calibrated version of the model is able to generate patterns of wealth and income inequality that are very similar to those observed in the United States. (JEL D31, E21, O15)     

Do notional defined contribution accounts make sense as part of the old-age security mix for China?

Until quite recently, the Chinese pension system was an enterprise-based, pay-as-you-go, defined benefit scheme. In 1995, the decision was made to shift to a multi-pillar scheme that included a second funded defined contribution pillar. The transition is proving difficult. This article outlines an alternative second pillar that may make more sense for China, a pay-as-you-go notional defined contribution (NDC) pillar. This article has three goals: (1) to provide a brief history of pension policy in China, (2) to describe the NDC model, and (3) to assess the relative merits of the NDC alternative as a possible option for China.     

Warum es kaum Pensionsfonds in Deutschland gibt. Kapitalmarktrisiken,Finanzindustrie und die Politik der Mindestverzinsung

Studies of the rise of private defined-contribution pension plans have traditionally focused on social policy concerns about the allocation of risks and costs for beneficiaries and employers. There is however another dimension of pension privatization, which situates it in the context of financial markets and—more broadly—the economic system. Here, regulations forcing private pension providers to guarantee a minimum rate of return on individuals’ pension assets make a crucial difference for financial markets because they incentivize fund managers to invest a greater chunk of plan portfolios in fixed-income securities and therefore away from equities. While different segments of the financial industry have divergent preferences over minimum return guarantees, politicians are caught in a dilemma: Should they prioritize predictable benefit levels or the development of equity markets? Using the case of the introduction of the German Riester Rente, we argue that, as politicians linked the introduction of private defined-contribution plans with cuts in statutory pensions, insurance firms in coalition with trade unions insisted on minimum guarantees, thereby restricting the expansion of equity markets in Germany.     

The Association Between Aging Inmate Housing Management Models and Non-Geriatric Health Services in State Correctional Institutions

Abstract

Until quite recently, the Chinese pension system was an enterprise-based, pay-as-you-go, defined benefit scheme. In 1995, the decision was made to shift to a multi-pillar scheme that included a second funded defined contribution pillar. The transition is proving difficult.

This article outlines an alternative second pillar that may make more sense for China, a pay-as-you-go notional defined contribution (NDC) pillar. This article has three goals: (1) to provide a brief history of pension policy in China, (2) to describe the NDC model, and (3) to assess the relative merits of the NDC alternative as a possible option for China.     

Personal account retirement plans: an analysis of the survey of consumers finances

This report is based on data from the Federal Reserve Board's triennial Survey of Consumer Financies (SCF), which provides the most comprehensive data available on the wealth of American households. The most recent SCF data are for 1998, and this report tracks information from the 1992, 1995, and 1998 surveys. The percentage of families with a participant in a pension plan from a current job increased from 38.8 percent to 41.0 percent over this six-year period. If one focuses exclusively on those families with a worker and in which the head is under age 65, the percentage for 1998 increases to 56.8 percent. The previously documented trend toward defined contribution plans was confirmed and the significance of 401(k)-type plans for those families participating in a pension plan more than doubled, from 31.6 percent in 1992 to 64.3 percent in 1998. The percentage of family heads eligible to participate in a defined contribution plan that did so increased from 73.8 percent in 1995 to 77.3 percent in 1998. Of those families choosing not to participate in a defined contribution plan, 40.3 percent were already participating in a defined benefit plan. Overall, "personal account plans" represented nearly one-half (49.5 percent) of all the financial assets for those families with either a defined contribution plan account, IRA, or Keogh, in 1998. This was a significant increase from 43.6 percent in 1992. The average total account balance in personal account plans for families with a plan in 1998 was $78,417, an increase of 54 percent in real terms over the 1992 balance of $50,914 (expressed in 1998 dollars). For families participating in a defined contribution plan, IRA, or Keogh in 1998, 52 percent of the overall average was attributed to IRA/Keogh balances (43 percent from IRAs alone), and 44 percent of the average was from account balances in defined contribution plans with the current employer. There is a marked tendency for lower-income families to have larger percentages of their total personal account plan retirement portfolio in IRAs, although this trend appears to be fading with time. The impact of rollovers on the average total account balance for all individual account balances appears to be quite large: $152,451 for those with at least one rollover, versus $78,471 for all families participating in at least one personal account plan, regardless of whether they have had a rollover. The vast majority of the rollovers would appear to be going to IRAs, as opposed to a defined contribution plan with a new employer.     

Misinformed and informed asset allocation decisions of self-directed retirement plan members

Most defined contribution pension plan members misunderstand asset allocation, but those with higher levels of wealth managing their own money are less likely to be confused. Younger, more-educated, higher-earning advice-receiving males with a planner mindset hold more equity. Notably, an understanding of asset allocation accentuates the impact of the key factors age, income and a planner mindset.     

The changing face of private retirement plans

A rapidly growing public policy concern facing the United States is whether future generations of retired Americans, particularly those in the "baby boom" generation, will have adequate retirement incomes. One reason is that Social Security's projected long-term financial shortfall could result in a reduction in the current-law benefit promises made to future generations of retirees. Another reason is that many baby boomers will be retiring with employment-based defined contribution (DC) plans, as opposed to the "traditional" defined benefit (DB) plans that historically have been the predominant source of employer-provided retirement income. These factors are likely to reduce the amount of life annuity benefits that future retirees will receive relative to current retirees, raising questions as to whether other sources of retirement income--such as individual account plans (DC plans and individual retirement accounts, or IRAs)--will make up the difference. This Issue Brief highlights the changes in private pension plan participation for DB and DC plans and provides some possible explanations for these changes. Results are presented from the Employee Benefit Research Institute's (EBRI) Retirement Income Projection Model that quantify how much the importance of individual account plans is expected to increase because of these changes. This Issue Brief also discusses the risk of outliving one's assets, since a greater fraction of pension wealth is projected to come from "nonguaranteed" sources. Results of the model are compared by gender for cohorts born between 1936 and 1964 in order to estimate the percentage of retirees' retirement wealth that will be derived from DB plans versus DC plans and IRAs over the next three decades. Under the model's baseline assumptions, both males and females are found to have an appreciable drop in the percentage of private retirement income that is attributable to defined benefit plans (other than cash balance plans). In addition, results show a clear increase in the income retirees will receive that will have to be managed by the retiree. This makes the risk of longevity more central to retirees' expenditure decisions. The implications of these model results for retirees are significant. First, individuals--rather than the pension plan sponsor--increasingly will have to manage their retirement assets and bear the risk of investment losses. Second, since most retirees' non-Social Security retirement income will be distributed as a lump sum or in periodic payements (from a defined contribution plan or IRA) rather than as a regular paycheck for life (from a defined benefit plan), retirees will need either to purchase an annuity from an insurance company or carefully manage their individual rate of spending in order to avoid outliving their assets.     

How does inequality aversion affect inequality and redistribution?

We investigate the effects of inequality aversion on equilibrium labor supply, tax revenue, income inequality, and median voter outcomes in a society where agents have heterogeneous skill levels. These outcomes are compared to those which result from the behavior of selfish agents. A variant of Fehr-Schmidt preferences is employed that allows the externality from agents who are “ahead” to differ in magnitude from the externality from those who are “behind” in the income distribution. We find first, that inequality-averse preferences yield distributional outcomes that are analogous to tax-transfer schemes with selfish agents, and may either increase or decrease average consumption. Second, in a society of inequality-averse agents, a linear income tax can be welfare-enhancing. Third, inequality-averse preferences can lead to less redistribution at any given tax, with low-wage agents receiving smaller net subsidies and/or high-wage individuals paying less in net taxes. Finally, an inequality-averse median voter may prefer higher redistribution even if it means less utility from own consumption and leisure.     

中国养老金:制度变革、问题清单与高质量发展

中国养老金制度经过近30多年来的深刻变革,从自我封闭的单位保障制走向开放式的社会保险制、从少数人的专利发展成为全体老年人的共同福祉、从单一责任主体走向多方分担责任、从单一层次走向多层次化,成为惠及所有老年人的社会保障制度,符合全球养老金制度发展的潮流与客观规律。但目前存在的理论认识误区、制度不统一、政策参数僵化、补充层次缺失及其导致的筹资失衡、待遇不公、预期紊乱、可持续性弱化和社会风险累积等问题正在日益显性化。这表明其仍是质量不高的制度安排。因此,中国养老金制度亟待走出逻辑混乱的思维定势与传统的路径依赖,通过明确公平建制理念、加快制度统一步伐、调适筹资责任分担机制、赋予相关参数弹性空间、理性推动多层次化等举措来为参与主体各方提供清晰稳定的预期,实现制度定型和高质量发展。     

Geographic decomposition of inequality in health and wealth: evidence from Cambodia

Applying the small-area estimation methods to Cambodia data, we decompose the total inequality in wealth (consumption) and health (child undernutrition) indicators into within-location and between-location components. Because the knowledge of the pattern of spatial disparity in poverty and undernutrition is important for the geographic targeting of resources, we conduct a geographic decomposition of the variance of the Foster-Greere-Thorbecke index in addition to the standard decomposition exercise based on the generalized entropy measures. We find that a sizable proportion of wealth inequality is due to between-location inequality, whereas health inequality is mainly due to within-location inequality.     

Carry a big stick,or no stick at all: Punishment and endowment heterogeneity in the trust game

We investigate the effect of costly punishment in a trust game with endowment heterogeneity. Our findings indicate that the difference between the investor and the allocator’s initial endowments determines the effect of punishment on trust and trustworthiness. Punishment fosters trust only when the investor is wealthier than the allocator. Otherwise, punishment fails to promote trusting behavior. As for trustworthiness, the effect is just the opposite. The higher the difference between the investor and the allocator’s initial endowments, the less willing allocators are to pay back. We discuss the consistency of our findings with social preference models (like inequality aversion, reciprocity), the capacity of punishment (i.e., the deterrence hypothesis) and hidden costs of punishment (i.e., models of intrinsic and extrinsic motivation). Our results are hardly coherent with the first two (inequality aversion and deterrence), but roughly consistent with the latter.     

Measuring inequality of opportunity with imperfect data: the case of Turkey

The measurement of inequality of opportunity has hitherto not been attempted in a number of countries because of data limitations. This paper proposes two alternative approaches to circumventing the missing data problems in countries where a demographic and health survey (DHS) and an ancillary household expenditure survey are available. One method relies only on the DHS, and constructs a wealth index as a measure of economic advantage. The alternative method imputes consumption from the ancillary survey into the DHS. In both cases, we compute a lower bound estimator of the share of (ex-ante) inequality of opportunity in total inequality. Parametric and non-parametric estimates are calculated for each method, and the parametric approach is shown to yield preferable lower-bound measures. In an application to the sample of ever-married women aged 30–49 in Turkey, inequality of opportunity accounts for at least 26% (31%) of overall inequality in imputed consumption (the wealth index).     

Women's Welfare and Social Security Privatization in Mexico

Several Latin American countries have fully or partially privatizedtheir public pensions since the 1980s. In 1995 Mexico privatizedits public pension system, including a shift from a definedbenefit to defined contribution system based on privately administeredindividual accounts. This article uses feminist criteria toevaluate the gender impact of welfare regimes and concludesthat the Mexican pension privatization will have a negativeeffect on women’s welfare in old age.     

Pension policy in China, Singapore, and South Korea: An assessment of the potential value of the notional defined contribution model

The rate of population aging is increasing in the developing world and the trend is particularly dramatic in East Asia. One consequence is sharp increases in old-age dependency ratios which have major implications for the sustainability of current public pension schemes. These trends are pushing pension policy experts in many of these countries to search for new pension models that are more suited to the increased demographic pressures they will be facing in the decades ahead. In this article we discuss five alternative public pension models with a focus on the newest of these models, the notional defined contribution (NDC) approach. We consider three countries with very different pension systems in place, two from East Asia (China and South Korea) and one from South East Asia (Singapore). The central question we address is which (if any) of the limitations in these existing models might more adequately be addressed using a variant of the NDC model. We conclude that the NDC model has the most to offer China and the least to offer Singapore.     

Employee preferences for pension plan features

Data from 517 survey respondents were used to analyze the determinants of the shares of a hypothetical $1,000 budget that employees were given to allocate to cash wages and pension plan features involving early retirement, postponed retirement, and infla-tion protection. Employee preferences for pension plan features generally reflected the potential for pensions to deal with such factors as risk sharing, family lifecycle decision making, and cash constraints, as those factors were related to observable per-sonal and demographic characteristics of employees as well as to their labor market circumstances and wealth embodied in their pension plans. Amongst other implica-tions, our analysis highlights that the demand is greater for early retirement and infla-tion protection than for postponed retirement, and the demand for early retirement is likely to increase as the work force ages, dual pension families become more promi-nent, and layoffs and job changing continue. Financial assistance from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada is gratefully acknowledged.     

Questions and answers on employee benefit issues

This Issue Brief addresses 19 topics in the areas of pensions, health insurance, and other benefits. In addition to the topics listed below, the report includes data on the prevalence of benefits, tax incentives associated with benefits, lump-sum distributions, number of private pension plans, pension coverage rates, 401(k) plans, employer spending on group health insurance, self-insured health plans, employer initiatives to reduce health care costs, and employers' response to the retiree health benefits accounting rule, and flexible benefits plans. In 1992, U.S. employers (public and private) spent $629 billion for noncash benefits, representing nearly 18 percent of total compensation, excluding paid time off. In 1992, 71 percent of the 50.1 million individuals aged 55 and over received retirement benefits, including distributions from private and public pensions, annuities, individual retirement accounts, Keoghs, 401(k)s, and Social Security. Among the 76 percent of all private pension plan participants who participated in a single plan, 30 percent named a defined benefit plan as their pension plan type, 58 percent named a defined contribution plan as their pension plan type, and 12 percent did not know their plan type. Private and public pension funds held more than $4.6 trillion in assets at the end of 1993. The 1993 year-end assets are more than triple the asset level of 1983 (nominal terms). According to the Congressional Budget Office, U.S. expenditures on health care were expected to have reached $898 billion in 1993, up from $751.8 billion in 1991, an increase of 19.4 percent in nominal terms.