Adjusting for Change of Status in International Migration: Demographic Implications

The calculation of net immigration for the purpose of estimating the resident population in Australia is based on net permanent and long–term (12 months or more) movements into and out of the country. All international movements with duration of stay in Australia or travel abroad of less than 12 months (defined as short–term) are excluded. However, changes between short–term and long–term/permanent status can occur when people extend or shorten their stay or travel. Because net immigration is a significant component of Australia’s population growth (accounting for 40–50 per cent of annual growth), adjusting for these changes in migration status is thought to result in better estimates of net immigration and the resident population. The paper shows that adjusting for change of status can have a large impact on net immigration, particularly when the immigrant intake is small. Failure to adequately adjust for change of status can also lead to misleading conclusions about the relative contributions of net temporary and permanent movements to total net immigration. The effect on the resident population, however, is relatively small, being less than 1 per cent of the total population. The paper also addresses the question of how important it is for countries to adjust for change of migrant status in international migration statistics in the context of increasing international mobility.     

Birthing,Nativity, and Maternal Depression: Australia and the United States,

This study analyzes two birth cohort surveys, the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children and Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, to examine variation in maternal depression by nativity, duration of residence, age at migration, and English proficiency in Australia and the United States. Both countries have long immigrant traditions and a common language. The results demonstrate that US immigrant mothers are significantly less depressed than native‐born mothers, but maternal depression does not differ by nativity in Australia. Moreover, the association between duration of residence and maternal depression is not linear: Recent arrivals and long‐term residents exhibit the highest depression levels. Lack of English proficiency exacerbates maternal depression in Australia, but protects against depression in the United States. Differences in immigration regimes and welfare systems likely contribute to the differing salience of nativity for maternal depression.     

Could Refugees Have a Significant Impact on the Future Demographic Change of Serbia?

Serbia still hosts the largest number of forced migrants in Europe. The paper examines the impact of the refugee influx from newly formed states on the territory of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) into Serbia on the future demographic trends of the country. Examination of the past population projections of Serbia confirmed that the process of predicting migration flows is related to the greatest source of uncertainty compared to all other components of demographic change. The results of our projection of Serbia’s population through 2050 show that the large influx of refugees during the last decade of the 20th century should not have a significant impact on the future demographic change of Serbia. Even in the case of substantial improvement of total fertility rate (2.35 in final projection year, comparing to current 1.55), no positive demographic effect should be experienced. Continuation of the decline in Serbia’s total population size cannot be offset by recent refugee influx for several reasons. The most important of them are: too small number of migrants comparing to the total population size of Serbia; similarity in fertility behaviour between refugee and indigenous population; the large‐scaled emigration during the same period; much older refugee population compared to emigrant population; and the processes of refugee repatriation and resettlement. A purely hypothetical projection variant assuming the migration required to maintain the size of current total population size of Serbia until 2050 points out the need for almost three times the amount of average annual migration surplus caused by the refugee influx.     

Shifts in Intergenerational Mobility of Indian Immigrant Entrepreneurs

The objective of this article is to examine the shift in the intergenerational mobility of Indian immigrant entrepreneurs in Australia. Based on a qualitative methodology, this article reports on the differences in the entrepreneurial attitudes of push and pull and the aptitudes of social and human capital between pre 2000 and post 2000 immigrant entrepreneurs. The findings suggest that the post 2000 Indian migrant entrepreneurs in Australia are mostly pull motivated, have higher qualifications than the pre 2000 arrivals, speak better English, have professional educational qualifications relevant to their business, and operate predominantly in the service sector. They take fewer years to get into business and are less dependent on immigrant social capital resources than pre 2000 arrivals. The study proposes that, compared with social capital resources, human capital resource have a greater impact on entrepreneurial propensity in the case of second generation Indian migrant entrepreneurs in Australia.

Policy Implications

• This research has implication for Australian immigration policy, labour laws and settlement services of migrants. It recommends successful implementation of policies and durable solutions for Indian immigrants in the labour market in Australia.
• The Australian Government will be assisted in examining and identifying future options for the intake of temporary and permanent migrants that improve the income, wealth and living standards of Australian citizens, improve the budgets and balance sheets of Australian governments, minimize administration and compliance costs associated with immigration, and provide pathways both for Australian citizens to be altruistic towards foreigners, and for Australia's international responsibilities and obligations to foreign residents to be met. Improvements in the labour laws would promote the effective integration of Indian immigrants into society.
• Further, Indians in the USA have contributed immensely to the entrepreneurial spirit due to the government support for migrant SMEs and the small business venture funds. The Australian government can replicate this policy, reduce restriction on employment opportunities and enhance entrepreneurship for all migrants.

     

From 'White Australia' to 'part of Asia': recent shifts in Australian immigration policy towards the region

This article examines migration policy in Australia with reference to the "White Australia" policy prior to 1975 and the multicultural policy thereafter. Mass immigration has not caused major social tensions. Mass tourism has been welcomed. Australian attitudes have changed from fear of massive numbers of Asians and mass poverty and ignorance to multiculturalism. Suspicious attitudes toward Asians, however, are still present among a minority of Australians. The most influential arguments against Asians are the concerns about employment of new arrivals and the environmental impact of an increasing population. Although there are many cultural differences, Australia is linked to Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines in that all have a history of British or American influence. Educated Indians and Sri Lankans are linked to Australians by their common language and Christian religion. The integration of Asians in the business and financial community holds the potential for economic gain over the years. The author finds that the Australian relationship to Asia is more acceptable in public arenas than the comparable changing relationship between Britain and Europe. The roots of a Whites-only policy extend back to 1901, when the Commonwealth Immigration Restriction Act was ratified. The exclusion of non-European immigrants was not specified in the law. The mechanism for exclusion was included in the law. Undesirable immigrants could be excluded. Under mass migration programs after 1947 the population of non-English speaking Europeans increased. By 1973 government shifted from an assimilationist approach to a multicultural approach due to pressure from the Department of Foreign Affairs. Numerous historical events occurring during 1942-80 drew Australia out of its isolationist position in the world. At present about 25% of the total population are of non-British origin. Over 900,000 would have been excluded under the old migration policy. In 1991, 665,315 persons were born in Asia, of which the largest numbers came from Mainland China, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Asian immigrants are either refugees from Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Laos or voluntary Asian immigrants.     

A history of population movement between New Zealand and Australia

"Migration between New Zealand and Australia has assumed considerable significance for both countries during the past 25 years. Commencing in the late 1960s, three major waves of net immigration from New Zealand have seen Australia's New Zealand-born population increase from 52,000 at the 1966 Census to 212,000 at the 1986 Census.... This paper aims to set these contemporary trends in historical context. So strong has been the tide flowing towards Australia that it is easy to imagine, erroneously, that it always flowed that way." Movements since the early 1800s are examined. Aspects considered include major periods of net migration, gender balance, short-term and permanent movement, and size and composition of immigrant groups. The impact of changes in migration policies over time is analyzed. The author's name is incorrectly listed as George A. Carmichael on this article. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Net Migration as a Target for Migration Policies: A Review and Appraisal of the UK Experience

The impact of migration on population growth has become a ubiquitous argument in UK immigration debates, leading to the introduction of immigration restrictions to reduce net migration and prevent the UK population from reaching 70 million. Taking the UK as a case study, this article assesses the rationale for setting a national net migration target as a pivotal point for migration policies and the feasibility of limiting net migration using immigration controls. A framework for analysing the effects of migration policies on net migration is proposed and applied to UK official migration data. The results show that, due to various policy constraints, competing objectives and unintended feedbacks, it is neither optimal nor entirely feasible to prioritize a reduction of net migration as a target for migration policies. Nevertheless, factoring net migration into the migration policy debate provides useful insights on the long‐term implications of migration policies in the context of broader demographic changes.     

Which Skilled Temporary Migrants Become Permanent Residents and Why?1

While most countries of destination of temporary migrants expect them to return home, it is likely that some temporary migration will become permanent if the migrants decide that they would like to remain longer or indefinitely for various reasons. This paper examines the factors associated with temporary migrants’ decision to become or not become permanent residents and the reasons for their decision, using survey data on skilled temporary migrants in Australia. It also looks at whether temporary migration facilitates or substitutes for permanent migration and discusses the likely effectiveness of temporary migration programs that assume temporary migrants will return home.     

Replacement Migration: the wave of the future?

The Population Division of the United Nations issued a report in 1999 on using migration to counteract the effects of low fertility on population size and ageing. The report looked at eight industrial countries and two regions, Europe and the European Union. Using population projections, the analysts estimated the amount of migration necessary to maintain both labour forces and the ratios of workers to retirees at a constant level.
This article agrees with the report that substituting migration for low fertility requires politically insupportable levels of migration. The article also concludes that the labour force and retirement financing outlook is not as dire as the UN report insinuates.     

Undocumented residents in the United States in 1990: issues of uncertainty in quantification

"Uncertainties are abundant about the measurement of net undocumented migration [to the United States] and change over the past two decades. This analysis presents possible upper and lower boundaries on components for estimating legal migration in 1980-1989 and on the foreign-born population in 1990. Positing ranges for net undocumented immigration, between 2 million and 4 million undocumented residents may have been counted in the 1990 census. The total number of undocumented residents may have been as high as 6 million."     

Greek immigrants in Australia: demographic developments and economic integration

"The purpose of this article is to present and analyse the migration, economic standing and economic performance of Greeks in Australia and to make a comparative assessment with the Australian population. The demographic and education characteristics of Greek immigrants, and to some extent second generation ethnic Greeks, and their bearing on immigrant employment and income are investigated. Intertemporal developments and intergenerational and interethnic changes are explored in order to identify and explain similarities and differences, or inequalities, between Greek immigrants and the total Australian population." (EXCERPT)     

Projections and Policies for Volunteer Programs: The Implications of the Serve America Act for Volunteer Diversity and Management

This article explores the limits of public policy as it affects volunteerism in the United States. Our analysis focuses on the potential of the Edward M. Kennedy Serve America Act (2009), the most sweeping volunteer legislation in U.S. history, to raise the level of volunteering and national service in the United States, particularly among young people, older people, and minorities—the primary target populations of the act. The Serve America Act aims to increase service‐learning opportunities and national service placements substantially. However, the long‐term impact of these changes on the rate of volunteering and the composition and character of the volunteering population remains unclear. Using data from the Current Population Survey's annual Supplement on Volunteering, we examine a variety of reasonable policy scenarios to see how the Serve America Act might affect future volunteering through the year 2050. The findings suggest that even if the Serve America Act is fully funded and implemented, it is unlikely to have a long‐term impact on the overall volunteering rate and, consequently, that altering the national volunteering rate might be an unrealistic public policy goal. Nevertheless, the analysis shows that because of naturally occurring changes in the population, the composition of the volunteer pool is likely to change as we move toward 2050—a demographic shift that will present increased challenges for volunteer managers. We discuss these challenges and how managers might deal with them effectively.     

Culture Clash? Predictors of Views on Amenity‐Led Development and Community Involvement in Rural Recreation Counties

Development is contentious in high‐amenity rural areas experiencing migration‐driven population growth. While some residents welcome the associated economic, demographic, and social changes, others resist these changes. Using survey data, we examine the predictors of views on amenity‐led development in rural recreation counties across the United States, including to what extent there is evidence of a “culture clash,” that is, whether values and attitudes of new and long‐term residents differ about local development issues as is often assumed. In addition, we examine whether attitudes toward development impact an important community outcome—residents’ involvement in their community. We find that development broadly speaking is a divisive issue in rural recreation areas and that there is evidence for a culture clash over development. Newer residents are less likely to see development as a problem in their community than long‐term residents, yet more likely to think existing rules to restrict development are good, providing mixed support for the “gangplank” hypothesis. We find that those who see development as a problem are more likely to be involved in local organizations. This research provides a better understanding of views of development in rural recreation counties and evidence of how these attitudes matter in broader community outcomes.     

“Culture Clash' Revisited: Newcomer and Longer‐Term Residents' Attitudes Toward Land Use,Development, and Environmental Issues in Rural Communities in the Rocky Mountain West*

Abstract Many rural communities in the Rocky Mountain West with high amenity values have experienced substantial in‐migration in the 1990s. Popular media accounts and some social science literature suggest that newcomers have very different values than longer‐term residents regarding environment, growth, and development issues, and that these differences are resulting in widespread social conflict. We evaluate these “culture clash” and “gangplank” hypotheses using survey data from three rural communities in the Rocky Mountain West that are experiencing amenity‐related in‐migration. We examine attitudes about environmental concern, population growth, economic development, and tourism development. Results indicate that newcomers differ significantly from longer‐term residents on a number of sociodemographic dimensions, but either there are no significant attitude differences between the two groups, or, where difference exist, longer‐term residents wish more strongly than newcomers to limit population growth and development in their communities. We offer explanations for why the results differ from media accounts and from the earlier research observations and hypotheses.     

Culture Clash and Second Home Ownership in the U.S. Northern Forest

Culture clash, or intracommunity tensions related to rapid in‐migration, between permanent and newcomer residents has been well studied in relation to environmental conservation in natural amenity communities; however, less is known about culture clash within communities characterized by high rates of second home ownership. We examine the causes of perceived culture clash in communities of the U.S. Northern Forest using mail survey data from four case studies within New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. In contrast to past culture clash research, we consider multiple dimensions of cultural capital that are independent of second home owners' rural or urban origins, and how key aspects of culture compare to economic standing and social interaction as drivers of perceived culture clash. Permanent residents perceive greater levels of culture clash than second home owners, net other measures, indicating that seasonal migration in and of itself encourages notions of otherness between residents. More frequent social interaction between resident groups helps to ameliorate intracommunity tensions. Cultural capital and social interaction measures were equally effective in explaining variation in perceived culture clash. Our findings indicate that the culture clash concept extends beyond scenarios of environmental conflict and applies to more general forms of intergroup tensions.     

An examination of population changes in Alabama's black belt counties: 1960–1970 and 1970–1980

Population changes in 11 Alabama Black Belt counties are examined by comparing annual average birth, death, and migration rates during the 1960s with those of the 1970s. The specific focus of the study is migration patterns among the nonwhite segment of the population. Data from the 1980 and earlier censuses are utilized, along with birth and death data from Alabama vital statistics reports. Average annual migration rates for each of the two decades are derived. The results indicate that net migration losses among nonwhites declined substantially during the 1970s compared with the 1960s and that in two Black. Belt counties there was a reversal from heavy net losses to moderate net gains. Whites, on a county‐to‐county basis, however, were generally characterized by significantly higher rates of loss during the 1970s than in the 1960s. The substantial reduction in outmigration rates among nonwhites is tentatively attributed to political and economic advances coupled with increased employment opportunities in nonagricultural occupations.     

Post‐Socialist Restructuring and Population Redistribution in Hungary*

Abstract This research focuses on pathways by which national level macro‐social transformations are transmitted to local communities. Our case is Hungary where we examine the relationship between post‐socialist economic restructuring, widespread industrial dislocations, and urban‐rural migration. Using secondary data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) and survey data from a study of 49 villages in 4 distinct rural regions, we demonstrate that post‐socialist population deconcentration involved both suburbanization and net movement to villages, especially villages that are located relatively close to cities. Contrary to our expectations, movement to villages was from nearby settlements, not from large industrial centers. Moreover, migrants to villages were substantially better off than longer term village residents in terms of their human capital and attachment to the labor force. Consequently, post‐socialist population deconcentration is not contributing to rural poverty as feared by some scholars.     

The role of ethnic relations and education systems in migration from Southeast Asia to Australia

"After a brief discussion of the geographical, cultural, and historical characteristics of Southeast Asia [and Hong Kong], a review is provided of the evolution of Australian immigration policy which, in our view, is a strong pull factor. This is followed by stock and flow analyses of Asian-born residents in Australia. The motivations for emigration in countries which exhibit substantial emigration rates are considered next and the article ends with the conclusion that demand factors and social networks play a decisive role in the decision to emigrate." Factors affecting migration significantly include political conditions and ethnic relations in countries of origin, and educational and career opportunities in the country of destination.     

‘Think imperially’: Indian journalists’ goodwill visits to White Australia, 1927 and 1947

ABSTRACT

Academic research on the White Australia Policy has spanned the history of Asian migration and policy-making initiatives in Australia. However, the role of popular transnational media images and stories of the past that inform the socio-cultural understanding of Australia–India cross-cultural relations has been under evaluated. In this paper, using unexplored archival material from popular newspaper reports and columns, I will examine the ‘goodwill visits’ of two Indian journalists, K. K. Lalkaka and Sir R. Srinivasa Sarma, to Australia in 1927 and 1947. By assessing the role of these two journalists, this paper will highlight transnational issues such as migration, ethnicity, race, class and trade between the two countries. Borrowing from Vineet Thakur’s research highlighting the role of first diplomats in the pre-independence era India, this article will contribute to the field of history in Indian diplomatic studies and historiography of Australian–Indian cross-cultural relations.     

CALL FOR PAPERS

In this article historical patterns and recent trends in black migration in the United States are examined. The purpose of the article is two‐fold: (1) to examine historical changes in the volume and rates of migration between the southern region and nonsouthern regions; and (2) to determine the relative impact of migration types on the South's changeover to net in‐migration during the 1975–1980 migration interval.

The findings of this study indicate that the reversal of the historical pattern of net out‐migration of blacks from the southern region occurred two decades after the turnaround for the general population. The southern region changed from sizable net out‐migration for blacks during the period before 1970 to net in‐migration during the 1975–1980 migration interval. The changeover was due to a substantial decrease in the number of both southern‐born and non‐southern‐born blacks leaving the South. There were also increases in the rate of in‐migration into the region among both return migrants and nonsouthern migrants. The single most important factor influencing the turnaround was a decrease in the number of southern‐born blacks migrating out of the region. This finding is contrary to much current speculation about the role of return migrants in influencing the South's changeover to net in‐migration for the black population.