Reflections on sustainability,population growth,and the environment

The related terms, sustainable and sustainability, have become popular and are used to describe a wide variety of activities which are generally ecologically laudable. At the same time, the term compromise is heard more frequently because the needs of the environment often are in conflict with the needs of humans. A brief examination of the question of compromise shows that a series of ten compromises, each of which saves 70% of the remaining environment, results in the saving of only 3% of the environment. Judging from the ways in which the terms sustainable and sustainability are used, their definitions are not very precise, especially when compromises are involved. An attempt is made here to give firm definition to these terms and to translate the definition into a series of laws and hypotheses which, it is hoped, will clarify the implications of their use. These are followed by a series of observations and predictions that relate to sustainability.     

On Exponential Growth and Half-Lives: A Comment on Bermingham

A recent paper (hereafter referred to as the Paper), Bermingham (2003), presented what appeared to be an analytical review of current situation of declining population growth rates in many parts of the world. The Paper suggested that the increasing growth rates before about 1970 constituted exponential growth, but that the currently declining growth rates were not exponential growth. Hence, the paper asserted that we should not use the terms exponential growth and doubling times in describing the current situation. Many of the suggestions in the paper are contrary to established mathematics. These suggestions are examined here in some detail.     

The non-comparability of the “comparable worth” doctrine: An inappropriate standard for determining sex discrimination in pay

This article critically evaluates the legal doctrine of comparable worth, including recent federal court decisions related to it. The doctrine mandates equal pay for jobs requiring comparable—but not equal—skill, effort and responsibility. As a standard for determining whether sex discrimination in pay has occurred, comparable worth is an economically defective concept and inappropriate to the task.The comparable worth standard is based solely on job content, measured in terms of the internal characteristics of the work performed and conditions of work. This standard completely ignores external market forces which affect the supply of labor and the pay that employers must offer to attract and retain their workers. For example, although female workers receive only about 60 percent of the pay earned by their male counterparts, between two-thirds and three-quarters of this male-female differential in pay is associated with gender differences in the nature and availability of labor.The importance of external market forces in establishing the value of jobs is best demonstrated in higher education by comparing the labor markets for and salaries of various academic disciplines. The observed differences in academic salaries by discipline are not the result of job discrimination but, rather, reflect differences in the opportunity costs facing faculty in terms of the employment alternatives outside of higher education. Even though significant differences in salary levels exist between disciplines, higher education is still plagued by chronic and substantial labor market imbalances. These imbalances are an indication that salary levels have not varied sufficiently to fully reflect external market forces.This article is a revision of the President's Lecture presented by the author at Widener University on November 29, 1983.     

Population Growth and Environmental Impact: Ideology and Academic Discourse in Israel

This article addresses the discourse of Israeli academics, policy makers, and environmental activists regarding the environmental implications of population growth in Israel. While there are compelling reasons that population growth should be a prominent topic for local environmental research and discussion, it is rarely considered in environmental campaigns or in the academic literature. I attribute this to the embeddedness of the Israeli environmental community within wider Israeli society. National ideologies and religiosity, coupled with immediate security and social concerns, bound what is considered sanctioned discourse regarding population growth, prescribing the rules of academic engagement for this controversial topic.     

Population in context: A typology of environmental driving forces

This paper presents a typology and qualitative model of causation for use in assessing the relative contributions of population growth to problems of pollution, lost biodiversity, and natural resource depletion. Population growth is placed in context as one of eight key driving forces that shape environmental quality today. It is treated primarily as an impact amplifier, along with technology. Root causes are traced to paradigmatic beliefs—especially anthropocentrism and contempocentrism—which find expression in unsustainable consumption patterns and designs of political economy.     

The influence of peers and parents on youth life satisfaction in Hong Kong

This investigation attempts to measure the relative influence of peer and parental influence on the perceived life satisfaction of two groups of secondary students in Hong Kong. Data on 1906 students from 30 schools were collected through the use of a self-administered questionnaire. Respondents were asked to rate their level of satisfaction on 26 different domains of life on a seven-point scale, ranging from very satisfied to very dissatisfied, as well as their satisfaction with life in general. These 26 items were combined to form six summary indices of life satisfaction: school life, family life, acceptance by others, government, media, and living environment. Two independent variables were used in the analysis of life satisfaction: peer orientation, and parent orientation. Both are composite indices and measure the adolescent's attachment to and identification with his peers or parents. It was found that parent orientation is a better predictor of life satisfaction than peer orientation. Adolescents who are high on parent orientation are more satisfied with every domain of life. They are also more satisfied with life in general. The relationship between peer orientation and life satisfaction is not a clear-cut one. Adolescents with strong peer orientation are more satisfied with school, media, government, and acceptance by others, but are less satisfied with family. There is no significant relationship between peer orientation and environment. The younger adolescents in our sample tend to perceive a higher level of satisfaction than the older adolescents in every domain of life as well as life in general.     

The role of fertility and population in economic growth: empirical research from aggregate cross-national data

Two recently improved sets of cross-country panel data are combined in order to re-examine the effects of population growth and fertility on economic growth. Using a 107 country panel data set covering 1960-85, we find that high birth rates appear to reduce economic growth through investment effects and possibly through capital dilution, although classic resource dilution is not evident in the data. Most significantly, however, birth rate declines have a strong medium-term positive impact on per capita income growth through labour supply or dependency effects.We are very grateful to Allen Kelley for his careful and thoughtful comments on an earlier version of this paper (Brander and Dowrick 1991) which led to a complete re-estimation of our models using updated primary data and reconstructed secondary data sets. We are also grateful to three anonymous referees for very helpful comments. This research was begun while Brander was a Visiting Fellow at the Department of Economics, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. Revisions were carried out while Dowrick was visiting the Department of Economics, University of Warwick. Research assistance was provided by Tracy Tiong. Financial support from the Social Sciences Research Council of Canada and UBC Centre for International Business Studies is gratefully acknowledged.     

A simple method for projecting or estimating α and β: An extension of the Brass Relational Gompertz Fertility Model

This paper proposes a simple method that analytically links the parameters and , which are not demographically interpretableand measurable in the Brass Relational Gompertz Fertility Model, with demographic measures of median age and interquartile range. We also extend the Brass model that deals only with age-specific fertility to age-parity-specific fertility, first marriage, divorce, remarriage, and leaving the parental home. The method has been successfully tested by fittings to 180 reliable observed demographic schedules in various countries and periods, and to nearly 10,000simulated schedules with various combinations of possible values (including the extremes) of and . Our proposed method that uses median age and interquartile range instead of and as input is useful in the population and family household projections. It releases the traditionalunrealistic assumption in population projections that the curve of the fertility schedule moves to the right or left in a parallel way. Instead, using our proposed method, one can assume that the demographic events would be delayed or advanced, while the curve becomes more spread or more concentrated, or, more specifically, assume that young people delay the events more than the older persons do, or vice versa. Our proposed method is also useful to formulate assumptions on future demographic trends for purposes of policy analysisand planning. It can be used to indirectly estimate demographic schedules when the detailed age-specific data are not currently available, which is useful for developing countries and sub-region studies in developed countries. A crucial point for a successful application of the method is that the standard schedule chosen can capture the general pattern of the demographic process in the population under study.     

Community-Run Fisheries: Avoiding the “Tragedy of the Commons”

This paper discusses how fishing communities around the world avoid destructive overfishing through local and largely informal self-management. The paper offers many examples that undermine the widespread assumption that the tragedy of the commons is inevitable without government regulation.     

The demographics of inequality

This paper presents a survey of recent literature on the effects of demographic variables on economic inequality. First, a number of conceptual and methodological questions are raised and discussed. They pertain to what is meant by inequality, what the range of demographic variables is, and how variable and endogenous are the demographic variables most widely used.The paper then turns to a review of empirical works on the distributive incidence of the following demographic variables: baby boomers entering the job market, aging population, variable fertility and mortality rates, internal and external migrations, divorce and widowhood, and finally donations and bequests. It appears that a lot of caution is needed when assessing the incidence of any demographic variable changing the size of the population because in this case standard inequality measures yield conflicting signals.Presidental address delivered at the second meeting of the European Society for Population Economics, June 23, 1988, Mannheim, FRG. The author is extremely grateful to R. Easterlin, D. Kessler, T. Smeeding, l. Tunali, R. von Weizsäcker, two referees, and the participants in the 1988 Hagen meeting of the Verein für Social politik, Ausschuß Mr Bevölkerungsökonomie, for their comments.     

Assessing state population projections with transparent multiregional demographic models

Population projection models that are conceptually simple enough to be called transparent may be used to check the validity of projections generated by black box models whose behavior may be somewhat shrouded in mystery. This paper adopts a multiregional demographic model to illustrate how such a validation procedure might be carried out on state population projections produced by the U.S. Bureau of the Census in 1988.     

Immigration and internal migration “flight”: A California case study

Recent analyses of 1990 census migration data have pointed up disparities in the way immigration and internal migration contributions affect an area's demographic profile. They show that there is little overlap between states with large population gains from internal migration from other parts of the United States and states with large population gains from immigration from abroad. This emerging pattern, along with the fact that immigration and internal migration select on very different demographic characteristics, could lead toward a demographic balkanization of the nation's population. This paper evaluates immigration-induced out-movement from California, based on an analysis of recently released migration data from the 1990 U.S. census. The results presented here suggest that California's out-migration consists of two different migration systems: first, an immigration-induced flight that exports lower income and less-educated Californians, primarily, to the nearby states of Washington, Oregon, Nevada and Arizona. And second, a more conventional migration exchange with the rest of the United States that involves the redistribution of better educated, higher income migrants. It is the former migration system which appears to be most responsive to the low-skilled immigration flows, while the latter should be responsive to more conventional labor market employment characteristics. This implies that, irrespective of changing economic conditions in the state, the continued immigration of low-skilled migrants will lead to more losses of native-born internal migrants to neighboring states and metropolitan areas. However, these migrant streams will not be made up of the best and brightest residents that characterize most conventional migration streams.A longer version of this report with more extensive background statistics isResearch Report 94–306 (Frey, 1994b) available from Publications, Population Studies Center, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104.     

“Replacement Migration”: The UN Population Division on European Population Decline

The imminent decline of populations in Europe, Japan and South Korea has generated widespread apprehension, largely because of fears that there will not be enough working age people to support the elderly. The UN Population Division has seemed to endorse those fears by an analysis of the levels of immigration needed to provide a constant number or ratio of workers, and by writing of the need for a solution to population decline. On the other hand, smaller populations would be environmentally advantageous in those countries. They must return to replacement level fertility or risk replacement by other populations, but they would benefit if they reached stationarity at a smaller population level. The transition is manageable if a higher proportion of working age people go to work. Right now, though dependency ratios are supposedly highly favorable, most of those countries are plagued by high unemployment levels.     

Government fragmentation and suburban services: The equality of consumer choice

The predominant reform tradition of centralizing suburban government to deal with problems of inequality in the distribution of local services has been attacked recently by a new school of thought often labelled New Political Economists. This school believes that the existing structure of local government can maximize citizen choice by allowing citizens to shop around between the level and mix of public goods and services offered by alternate communities. The term polycentricity has been coined to describe this situation. Critics of polycentricity believe that the resulting quasi-market would be unfair to low and moderate income suburbanites. This paper examines the actual extent of choice in service levels available to different income groups located in the suburban ring of six metropolitan areas. The extent of inequality in choice between different income groups is measured and the implications of these findings for the conflict between polycentric and centralizing reformers is discussed.The research reported in this paper was funded by the National Science Foundation, Grant Number SOC7705600     

Quality of Life Indexes for National Policy: Review and Agenda for Research

A number of governments and public policy institutes have developed Quality of Life Indexes – statistics that attempt to measure the quality of life for entire states or regions. We develop 14 criteria for determining the validity and usefulness of such QOL indexes to public policy. We then review 22 of the most-used QOL indexes from around the world. We conclude that many of the indexes are successful in that they are reliable, have established time series measures, and can be disaggregated to study subpopulations. However, many fall short in four areas: (1) indexes vary greatly in their coverage and definitions of domains of QOL, (2) none of the indexes distinguish among the concepts of input, throughput, and output that are used by public policy analysts, (3) they fail to show how QOL outputs are sensitive to public policy inputs, and (4) none have examined convergent validity against each other. We conclude that many of these indexes are potentially very useful for public policy and recommend research to further improve them.     

The greenhouse effect: An interdisciplinary perspective

A recent, rather typical, essay argues that even if the greenhouse threat is real, even if temperatures rise and low-lying lands must be protected forever by an enormous system of dikes, such unlikely occurrences do not justify imposing vast costs on the present generation rather than helping developing countries overcome the environmental problems that they are facing today. This review shows that anyone willing to cross disciplinary boundaries, or willing to listen to scholars who have taken this less-traveled road, can easily ascertain that this surprisingly popular viewpoint is mistaken. This review's interdisciplinary journey begins with an exposition of a few fundamental, noncontroversial, ecological insights. These are followed by a brief case study in environmental history: the CFC-ozone link. The natural greenhouse effect is then introduced, relying for the most part on comparative astronomical data and insights. The nature of, evidence for, and the largely uncertain consequences of, the enhanced greenhouse effect on Earth are taken up next. For argument's sake, a conservative and arbitrary estimate is adopted, assuming that the chances of adverse greenhouse consequences within the next century are 10%; of a cataclysm, 1%. Such chances, this review then conclusively shows, should not be taken, because there is no conceivable reason for taking them: the steps that will eliminate the greenhouse threat will also save money and cut pollution, accrue many other beneficial consequences, and only entail negligible negative consequences. Thus, a holistic review leads to the surprising conclusion that humanity is risking its future for less than nothing. Claims that the greenhouse controversy is legitimate, that it involves hard choices, that it is value-laden, or that it cannot be resolved by disinterested analysis, are tragically mistaken. Given the stakes of the greenhouse debate—the future of humanity—concerned scholars and citizens ought to understand this issue. This review provides an accessible, factual, holistic, and self-contained portrayal of the greenhouse threat.     

Integrated Assessment of the Recent Economic History of Ecuador

This paper presents an application of the Multiple-Scale Integrated Assessment of Societal Metabolism to the recent economic history of Ecuador. The most relevant phases are: (1) a single commodity export oriented economy; (2) an import-substituting industrialization triggered by the oil-boom; (3) the current critical situation. This study centers on the crucial changes that took place in 1970s in relation to the oil boom. Changes are described using economic variables and biophysical variables (both extensive and intensive referring to different hierarchical levels). These two parallel readings are combined at the end in the discussion section.     

Environmental Refugees

There are fast-growing numbers of people who can no longer gain a secure livelihood in their homelands because of drought, soil erosion, desertification, deforestation and other environmental problems. In their desperation, these environmental refugees—as they are increasingly coming to be known and as they are termed in this paper—feel they have no alternative but to seek sanctuary elsewhere, however hazardous the attempt. Not all of them have fled their countries, many being internally displaced. But all have abandoned their homelands on a semi-permanent if not permanent basis, having little hope of a foreseeable return.     

Migrant stock vs. lagged migrant flow as a determinant of migrant settlement. A comment on Anjomani and Hariri

In a recent contribution to this Journal Anjomani and Hariri present an interesting study of United States interstate migration which explicitly incorporates so-called flow diversion and flow creation effects. Their discussion and evaluation of the model, however, are marred by several factors. This paper contrasts the roles of migrant stock and lagged migration in migration analysis and then addresses (a) the problems encountered when the family-friends effect is proxied with measures of lagged migrant flows, (b) the problem of using a two-period lagged value of earlier migrant flow as an explanatory variable, and (c) this paper suggests an alternative method of correcting the Anjomani-Hariri model's problems with multicollinearity.The author is grateful to Walter J. Wadycki and to David A. Macpherson for helpful comments and suggestions. The author, of course, bears full responsibility for all errors that remain. This research benefited from a grant from the Miami University Committee on Faculty Research.     

Change in the stressfulness of life in American states and regions from 1976 to 1982

The State Stress Index (SSI) described in this paper^I measures difference between the states of the United States, and differences over time, in the occurrence of stressful life events. The method of constructing the SSI is described and the scores for each of the American states in 1976 and 1982 are presented. There are large differences between the states in the stressfulness of life. The construct validity of the SSI was supported by analysis which show that the higher the SSI, the higher the incidence of behaviors that have long been assumed to be affected by stress, such as violence and heavy smoking and drinking, and suicide. Scores on the SSI revealed an increase in the stressfulness of life between 1976 and 1982, largely due to the economic recession in 1982. Despite this the 1982 rank order of the states was essentially the same as their relative position in 1976. The West remained the most stressful region of the United States, despite its other attractions, and the North Central and North East remained the least stressful regions, despite their rustbelt and frostbelt images.