U.S. population: where we are; where we're going

This Bulletin reviews recent trends in the dynamics and character of the U.S. population, the outlook for the remainder of the 1980s, and prospects for longterm growth. Estimated at 232 million as of mid-1982, the U.S. population is currently growing at about 1% a year, one of the developed world's highest growth rates. Natural increase (births-deaths) still adds some 1.7 million people a year, despite the rapid postbaby boom fall in fertility to a near-record low rate of 1.9 births/woman in 1981. With increasing numbers of refugees, net legal immigration averaged 600,000/year in 1979-81 and the net inflow of illegal immigrants may now be 500,000 a year. Uncertainty over potentially large numbers of immigrants complicates projections of future U.S. population size. Currently, the U.S. death rate is at an alltime low. More than 1/2 the population now resides in the South and West. Rural areas and small towns grew faster than urban areas in the 1970s for the 1st time in over a century. Educational attainment is at an alltime high, as is labor force participation, due to increasing employment among women and the baby boom generation's arrival at working ages. The age composition of the population, with the bulge of the baby boom generation surrounded by the older "depression" generation born during the 1930s and the younger "baby bust" generation born since the end of the 1960s, presents special problems for U.S. society.     

State-Level 2010 Census Coverage Rates for Young Children

The Census Bureau’s demographic analysis (DA) shows that the net undercount rate for children aged 0–4 was 4.6 percent in the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census while adults (age 18 and older) had a net overcount rate of 0.7 percent. For the population aged 0–4, DA estimates are seen as more accurate than the U.S. Decennial Census because the estimates for this young population rely heavily on highly accurate birth certificate data. Given the relatively high net undercount rate for young children, it would be useful to examine census coverage rates for this population in subnational geographic units. In this study, the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census counts of children aged 0–4 are compared to the corresponding figures from the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2010 Population Estimates in each state. Differences between the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census count and the Vintage 2010 Population Estimates for the population aged 0–4 range from an estimated net undercount of 10.2 percent in Arizona to an estimated net overcount of 2.1 percent in North Dakota. Larger states tended to have higher net undercounts than smaller states. The ten largest states account for about 70 percent of the national net undercount of the population aged 0–4. Of all the factors examined here, the relative size of the Blacks Alone or in Combination plus Hispanics population is most highly correlated with the estimated net undercount of the population aged 0–4. Other measures that were highly correlated with net undercount rates for the population aged 0–4 were linguistic isolation, percent of adults without a high school degree, and the unemployment rate. In general, characteristics of people are more highly correlated with the net undercount rates of young children than the characteristics of housing units.     

U.S. Citizen Children De Facto Deported to Mexico

Between 2000 and 2015, the U.S. deported unprecedented numbers of Mexican immigrants. During the same period, the population of U.S.-born children living in Mexico doubled in size. This study estimates the number of U.S.-born children who emigrated to Mexico from the United States in order to accompany a deported parent: de facto deported children. The data come from the Mexican National Survey of Demographic Dynamics (ENADID), a national probability sample of households in Mexico collected in 2014 and 2018. About one in six U.S.-born children living in Mexico in 2014/2018, amounting to an estimated 80,000–100,000 U.S.-born children, were there because the U.S. government deported one or both of their parents. De facto deported U.S.-born children are socioeconomically disadvantaged in Mexico compared to U.S.-born children whose parents migrate to Mexico for other reasons. Women are overrepresented among deported people who bring their U.S.-born children to Mexico, and when deported mothers bring their children, they are far less likely to do so with a partner than are deported fathers. U.S. policy should consider the interests of U.S. citizen children forced to live abroad when redesigning immigration and child welfare policies.     

The Growth,Scope, and Spatial Distribution of People With Felony Records in the United States, 1948–2010

The steep rise in U.S. criminal punishment in recent decades has spurred scholarship on the collateral consequences of imprisonment for individuals, families, and communities. Several excellent studies have estimated the number of people who have been incarcerated and the collateral consequences they face, but far less is known about the size and scope of the total U.S. population with felony convictions beyond prison walls, including those who serve their sentences on probation or in jail. This article develops state-level estimates based on demographic life tables and extends previous national estimates of the number of people with felony convictions to 2010. We estimate that 3 % of the total U.S. adult population and 15 % of the African American adult male population has ever been to prison; people with felony convictions account for 8 % of all adults and 33 % of the African American adult male population. We discuss the far-reaching consequences of the spatial concentration and immense growth of these groups since 1980.     

Internal Migration of the Foreign-Born: Population Concentration or Dispersion?

Recent analyses of the 1990 census migration data have pointed to the different demographic effects of internal migration and immigration. States and metropolitan areas either have large population gains through immigration or internal migration, but rarely both, leading to what has been labeled as an increasing demographic balkanization of the U.S. population. This paper explores the proposition that the internal migration of the foreign-born (pre-1985 arrivals) is likely to reinforce the demographic effects of immigration. Analysis is based on the five-percent Public Use Microdata file of the U.S. Census, with the demographic effects evaluated at both the state and metropolitan area levels. Distinctions were also made between nineteen separate national origin groups, increasing the detail of the analysis. Despite high internal migration rates and large net migration, there was little change in the overall distribution and concentration of the foreign-born population between 1985 and 1990. More important, however, distinctions were found across the national origin groups. While secondary migration leads to dispersion among some groups, other groups were becoming increasingly concentrated, suggesting that demographic balkanization of the American population is more variable than the literature would suggest.     

Recent Trends in Coverage of the Mexican-Born Population of the United States: Results From Applying Multiple Methods Across Time

The accuracy of counts of U.S. racial/ethnic and immigrant groups depends on the coverage of the foreign-born in official data. Because Mexicans constitute by far the largest single national-origin group among the foreign-born in the United States, we compile new evidence about the coverage of the Mexican-born population in the 2000 census and 2001–2010 American Community Survey (ACS) using three techniques: a death registration, a birth registration, and a net migration method. For the late 1990s and first half of the 2000–2010 decade, results indicate that coverage error was somewhat higher than currently assumed but had substantially declined by the latter half of the 2000–2010 decade. Additionally, we find evidence that U.S. census and ACS data miss substantial numbers of children of Mexican immigrants, as well as people who are most likely to be unauthorized: namely, working-aged Mexican immigrants (ages 15–64), especially males. The findings highlight the heterogeneity of the Mexican foreign-born population and the ways in which migration dynamics may affect population coverage.     

Reproductive impairments in the united states, 1965–1982

The first national estimates of current fecundity status of women of all marital statuses indicate that, in 1982, about 5.1 million women were unable to have a future birth but would have liked to. About 2.7 million had difficulty bearing children, and the other 2.4 million were surgically sterile for noncontraceptive reasons. Since 1965, infertility was unchanged overall and in most age groups, but increased among wives aged 20–24. This paper explores a number of methodological and substantive questions related to reproductive impairments, such as the frequency of intercourse, the duration of infertility, and the possible causes of trends.     

The Soviet Union: population trends and dilemmas

Focus in this discussion of population trends and dilemmas in the Soviet Union is on demographic problems, data limitations, early population growth, geography and resources, the 15 republics of the Soviet Union and nationalities, agriculture and the economy, population growth over the 1950-1980 period (national trend, regional differences); age and sex composition of the population, fertility trends, nationality differentials in fertility, the reasons for fertility differentials (child care, divorce, abortion and contraception, illegitimacy), labor shortages and military personnel, mortality (mortality trends, life expectancy), reasons for mortality increases, urbanization and emigration, and future population prospects and projections. For mid-1982 the population of the Soviet Union was estimated at 270 million. The country's current rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) is about 0.8% a year, higher than current rates of natural increase in the U.S. (0.7%) and in developed countries as a whole (0.6%). Net immigration plays no part in Soviet population growth, but emigration was noticeable in some years during the 1970s, while remaining insignificant relative to total population size. National population growth has dropped by more than half in the last 2 decades, from 1.8% a year in the 1950s to 0.8% in 1980-1981, due mostly to declining fertility. The national fertility decline masks sharp differences among the 15 republics and even more so among the some 125 nationalities. In 1980, the Russian Republic had an estimated fertility rate of 1.9 births/woman, and the rate was just 2.0 in the other 2 Slavic republics, the Ukraine and Belorussia. In the Central Asian republics the rates ranged up to 5.8. Although the Russians will no doubt continue to be the dominant nationality, low fertility and a relatively higher death rate will reduce their share of the total population by less than half by the end of the century. Soviet leaders have launched a pronatalist policy which they hope will lead to an increase in fertility, at least among the dominant Slavic groups of the multinational country. More than 9 billion rubles (U.S. $12.2 billion) is to be spent over the next 5 years to implement measures aimed at increasing state aid to families with children, to be carried out step by step in different regions of the country. It is this writer's opinion that overall fertility is not likely to increase markedly despite the recent efforts of the central authorities, and the Russian share of the total population will probably continue to drop while that of Central Asian Muslim peoples increases.     

Population policy in India

The financial allocations made for the family planning program in India since the early 1950s suggest that a very high priority is attached to population control policy. At the current rate of exchange, the public sector investment will have been over 5.3 billion U.S. dollars by the end of the Seventh Five Year Plan, 1985–1990. It is claimed that over 85 million births have been averted over the last three decades. The number of couples currently protected by the various contraceptive methods, as of March, 1987, is estimated to be 55 million, or 41.4% of the 132.6 million eligible couples with wives 15–44 years-old.The long-term goal of the national population policy is to attain replacement level fertility (approximately 2.3 children) per couple by the turn of the century, implying a crude birth rate of 21 and a death rate of 9 per 1,000 persons. In view of very slow progress in the reduction of the crude birth rate, particularly in the Hindi-speaking populous states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Haryana, the target for the country as a whole is most likely to be reached by 2010–2015 A.D.The observed stalled decline in the crude birth rate between 1975 and 1984 at the national level is analyzed in terms of changing age-sex composition, marital status, set-back to the family planning efforts, and other factors.The long-term projections indicate a national population of 996 million by the year 2,000 A.D., and 1,336 million in the year 2030 A.D. Further, for the very long run, a stationary population of 1.7 billion is hypothesized for India in the middle of the 22nd century.The data analyzed in this paper was collected in 1986 at the Delhi School of Economics through the courtesy of the Shastri Indo-Canadian Institute, Calgary/New Delhi. Appreciation is expressed to both institutions and to Drs. P.P. Talwar, M.K. Premi, K.B. Pathak, and Dr. Ashish Bose. Please direct correspondence to Dr. Chaudhry, Department of Political and Economic Science, Royal Military College of Canada, Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7K 5L0.     

Immigrants and the Spread of Tuberculosis in the United States: A Hidden Cost of Immigration

This panel-data study concerns the incidence of newly diagnosed tuberculosis (TB) in specific U.S. metropolitan areas among immigrants and, in turn, the possible transmission of the disease to the native-born population of these same metropolitan areas. The study includes 50 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas as annual observations, 1993–2007. We find that a 10% increase in the number of high-incidence immigrants results in a 2.87% increase in TB among the foreign-born population, and that a 10% increase in the number of foreign-born TB cases increases the number of new TB cases among the native-born by 1.11%. The study concludes with a benefit/cost analysis of the societal cost of TB and suggests that testing all immigrants for TB would be a cost-effective method to limit the amount of TB that enters U.S. from abroad, thus limiting the transmission to both the foreign- and native-born populations.     

We must pay attention to the difference between the original intention and the current status of family planning]

Due to imperfections in the current family planning (FP) policy, and the differences un program implementation in urban and rural areas, the fertility of the urban population with higher IQ scores is under control but this is not the case for the rural population. Among rural couples, one child is rare and two or three are commonplace, while in cities over 70% of couples are having one child. In the metropolitan cities, this figure is about 90%. In the rural areas, provision of education is a serious problem because of insufficient resources, a lack of qualified teachers and inadequate facilities. At the present, at least 3 million school age children in rural areas can not go to primary school. Besides there is a big contrast in FP practice between Han nationality and minorities. Population growth is basically under control among the more advanced Han nationally but not among the less advances minority nationalities. This growth rate among the minority population was about 50.27/1000 in the past five years, which is alarming. Furthermore, the couples given opportunity to have a second child are often those whose first child had birth defects or is mentally retarded, whereas couples with a normal child can have only one child. This has become a vicious circle, since subsequent children are more likely to have the same birth defects. It was discovered from a 1983-85 survey that the prevalence of birth defects was 12.8/1000. The current situation is that the fertility of urban, educated, and healthy people is restricted while the less educated, those living in less developed areas, and those with health defects are having more children. The outcome of this situation is the decline of national population quality, which greatly deviates from the original intention of the FP.     

Comparing the U.S. Decennial Census Coverage Estimates for Children from Demographic Analysis and Coverage Measurement Surveys

Following every U.S. decennial census since 1960, the U.S. Census Bureau has evaluated the completeness of coverage using two different methods. Demographic analysis (DA) compares the census counts to a set of independent population estimates to infer coverage differences by age, sex, and race. The survey-based approach (also called dual system estimation or DSE) provides coverage estimates based on matching data from a post-enumeration survey to census records. This paper reviews the fundamentals of the two methodological approaches and then initially examines the results of these two methods for the 2010 decennial census in terms of consistency and inconsistency for age groups. The authors find that the two methods produce relatively consistent results for all age groups, except for young children. Consequently, the paper focuses on the results for children. Results of the 1990, 2000, and 2010 decennial censuses are shown for the overall population in this age group and by demographic detail (age, race, and Hispanic origin). Among children, the DA and DSE results are most inconsistent for the population aged 0–4 and most consistent for ages 10–17. Results also show that DA and DSE are more consistent for Black than non-Black populations. The authors discuss possible explanations for the differences in the two methods for young children and conclude that the DSE approach may underestimate the net undercount of young children due to correlation bias.     

Zero growth of the population of the United States

It is sometimes said that there is no population problem in the United States because the U.S. fertility rate is approximately at the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. However the population of the United States increased in 1992 by approximately three million people. There are two major causes of continued population growth even when fertility is approximately at the replacement level. One is population momentum; the other is immigration. This paper examines what must be done if we want to achieve zero growth of the population of the United States immediately, without the long delays caused by population momentum.     

Diverging Demography: Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Contributions to U.S. Population Redistribution and Diversity

The substantial growth and geographic dispersion of Hispanics is among the most important demographic trends in recent U.S. demographic history. Our county-level study examines how widespread Hispanic natural increase and net migration has combined with the demographic change among non-Hispanics to produce an increasingly diverse population. This paper uses U.S. Census Bureau data and special tabulations of race/ethnic specific births and deaths from NCHS to highlight the demographic role of Hispanics as an engine of new county population growth and ethnoracial diversity across the U.S. landscape. It highlights key demographic processes—natural increase and net migration—that accounted for 1990–2010 changes in the absolute and relative sizes of the Hispanic and non-Hispanic populations. Hispanics accounted for the majority of all U.S. population growth between 2000 and 2010. Yet, Hispanics represented only 16 % of the U.S. population in 2010. Most previous research has focused on Hispanic immigration; here, we examine how natural increase and net migration among both the Hispanic and non-Hispanic population contribute to the nation’s growing diversity. Indeed, the demographic impact of rapid Hispanic growth has been reinforced by minimal white population growth due to low fertility, fewer women of reproductive age and growing mortality among the aging white population America’s burgeoning Hispanic population has left a large demographic footprint that is magnified by low and declining fertility and increasing mortality among America’s aging non-Hispanic population.     

Humans and biodiversity: population and demographic trends in the hotspots

An analysis of human population trends from 2000 to 2010 shows that of the roughly one billion additional people on the planet today, a disproportionate number live in the biodiversity hotspots and tropical wilderness areas (TWAs). Although the annual population growth rate in the hotspots declined from 1.6 to 1.3 %, the total population increased by 187 million people. While less densely populated, the TWAs grew at roughly twice the rate of the hotspots. Overall, slower growth rates are indicative of longer-term global trends in decreasing fertility, aging populations, and increased urbanization. The hotspots, however, are largely inhabited by people who have yet to enter their reproductive years or are in the early stages therein. The young age structure means that populations in these priority conservation areas will grow even as fertility rates fall further, and biodiversity will be forced to share dwindling natural habitat with ever more people.     

America’s Churning Races: Race and Ethnicity Response Changes Between Census 2000 and the 2010 Census

A person’s racial or ethnic self-identification can change over time and across contexts, which is a component of population change not usually considered in studies that use race and ethnicity as variables. To facilitate incorporation of this aspect of population change, we show patterns and directions of individual-level race and Hispanic response change throughout the United States and among all federally recognized race/ethnic groups. We use internal U.S. Census Bureau data from the 2000 and 2010 censuses in which responses have been linked at the individual level (N = 162 million). Approximately 9.8 million people (6.1 %) in our data have a different race and/or Hispanic-origin response in 2010 than they did in 2000. Race response change was especially common among those reported as American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, Other Pacific Islander, in a multiple-race response group, or Hispanic. People reported as non-Hispanic white, black, or Asian in 2000 usually had the same response in 2010 (3 %, 6 %, and 9 % of responses changed, respectively). Hispanic/non-Hispanic ethnicity responses were also usually consistent (13 % and 1 %, respectively, changed). We found a variety of response change patterns, which we detail. In many race/Hispanic response groups, we see population churn in the form of large countervailing flows of response changes that are hidden in cross-sectional data. We find that response changes happen across ages, sexes, regions, and response modes, with interesting variation across racial/ethnic categories. Researchers should address the implications of race and Hispanic-origin response change when designing analyses and interpreting results.     

Preliminary analysis of the relationship between literacy quality and occupation of our minorities women and their population development]

Chinese women, particularly those of ethnic minorities were studied 3 major areas: 1) literacy, 2) occupation and 3) the relationship between population growth and literacy and occupation. All of the data referred to are based upon the National Census of 1982. Although there has been substantial improvement in literacy among women of ethnic groups in China since the 1950s, the present situation is still far from satisfactory. Illiteracy is 132.6% higher among women than among men on a national level, and the number of illiterate women belonging to ethnic groups is almost twice that of illiterate men. Among 55 ethnic groups examined, 40 has an illiteracy rate higher than that of the national level. At present, 90% of the members of ethnic groups are involved in traditional occupations such as farming, forestry, and fishing. The percentage of women in nontraditional occupations is much lower than that found on the national level. For instance, the number of male government officials is nationally 763% higher than the number of women in these professions; and it is 806% higher among ethnic groups. It is noted that population growth is directly related to literacy and occupation: The birth rate decreases in proportion to the increase in the number of women becoming educated and joining the work force. It is concluded that in order to lower the birth rate and to improve the status of the national population, the government should promote commodity production and modify the occupational structure by employing more women and further improving education.     

中国少数民族人口发展形势分析

一、人口数量 20世纪80年代,中国少数民族人口一度高速增长,从1982年的6643万人增至1990年的9057万人,年均增长率达到3．89％,占全国人口的比例从6．62％提高到8．01％。1990—2000年,根据“五普”资料,全国（大陆）人口增加了9．92％,其中,汉族人口由103919万人增至113739万人,增加了9．45％,全国人口和汉族人口年均增长率分别为0．91％和0．87％;     

Family size and the quality of children

If couples decide to have fewer children in order to achieve higher “quality” offspring, are they correct in assuming that the quality of children bears an important and inverse relation to family size? If they are correct, how does number of children operate to affect individual quality? This research (using U.S. whites primarily) takes educational attainment (among adults) and college plans (among youngsters) as the principal indicators of quality, but also directs some attention to measures of intelligence. The analysis supports the “dilution model” (on average, the more children the lower the quality of each child) and indicates that only children do not suffer from lack of siblings, and that other last-borns are not handicapped by a “teaching deficit.” Number of siblings (relative to other background variables) is found to have an important detrimental impact on child quality—an impact compounded by the fact that, when couples are at a stage in life to make family-size decisions, most background factors (however important to the quality of their children) are no longer readily manipulable. A special path analysis of college plans among boys uses a modification of Sewell’s Wisconsin Model as its base. The results show that number of siblings is a negative influence on intervening variables affecting college plans. In general, the research documents the unfavorable consequences for individual siblings of high fertility, even in a country that is (at least for whites) as socially, economically, and politically advantaged as the United States.     

A brief introduction to China's family planning programme

China's family planning program is described in reference to its goals, approaches, and achievements. Between 1949-83, China's population increased from 541 million to 1,024,950,000. The population has a young age structure, and the median age is 22.9 years. 80% of the population is rural, and 90% of the population lives in the southeastern region of the country. In view of this demographic situation, the government recognizes the need to control population growth. China's goals for the year 2000 are to increase industrial and agricultural input by 400% and to keep population size below 1.2 billion in order to ensure that per capita income increases. In accordance with these goals, the government, in 1979, began advocating a 1-child policy. To ensure the survival of single children, the government also launched a program to upgrade maternal and child health (MCH). In some rural areas and among certain minority groups, the 1-child restriction is not applied. Family size goals will vary with time. These variations will reflect the need to maintain a balance between economic growth and population growth. A variety of incentives are used to promote the 1-child family. For example, single children receive medical and educational benefits, and in some rural areas, the parents of single children can obtain additional land contracts. Economic disincentives are also used. The government seeks to obtain compliance with the policy primarily through educating the public about the consequences of uncontrolled population growth. All channels of the mass media are used to deliver the messages, and the publicity campaign is especially intensive in rural areas. A comprehensive plan to provided family planning and population education for middle school students is currently being implemented. Each local area develops its own fertility control plan. This plan is then incorporated into the nation's overall plan and the overall plan is implemented from above. Family planning workers bring free contraceptives directly to the people, and family planning motivators are found in almost all villages, neighborhood committees, factories, and military units. As a result of these efforts, China made great strides in controlling population growth and improving MCH during the last decade. The birth rate declined from 27.93 to 18.62, and the total fertility rate declined from 4.01 to 2.48. 124 million couples were practicing contraception by the end of 1983. 41% used IUDs, 37.4% relied on tubal ligation, 12.9% relied on vasectomy, 5.1% on oral contraceptives, and 1% on other methods. The quality of maternal and child care also improved. 92.7% of all deliveries are now performed by trained midwifes. Infant and maternal mortality rates declined considerablely in recent years. Currently the respective rates are 35.68/1000 live births and 0.5/1000 live births. In 1983 alone, the gross national agricultural and industrial output increased by 46.1%. Since 1979 per capita income increased annually by 18.3% among rural residents and by 10.7% among urban workers. China controls and operates its own population program, but in recent years, it increased its cooperation with UN Fund for Population Activities, other UN agencies, and nongovernment agencies. China recently completed its 3rd national census, and demographic research institutes have been established in 10 universities.