The American Community Survey: general commentary on the findings from external evaluations

As part of the Census Bureau’s effort to prove the operational feasibility of the American Community Survey (ACS), the Bureau contracted with local experts to conduct comparative analyses of the 1999–2001 ACS estimates with the 2000 Census data for various test counties. One of the goals of the ACS is to replace the decennial census long form. The resulting research papers analyzed various quality measures (response rates, allocation rates, and so on), conceptual differences in the two instruments, and statistical reliability in an effort to add to our assessment of the ACS as an adequate replacement instrument for collecting long form data. This paper discusses the results of these four research efforts and presents conclusions and recommendations for further Census Bureau action and research. The quality of traditional long form data, the importance of accurate population estimates and an accurate Master Address File (MAF), and continued research on the quality of small area data are discussed.     

Immigration data and national population estimates for the United States

The immigration component in national population estimates is comparatively small, but it is not insignificant and may indeed be an important source of error. Therefore, it warrants the considera-tion of those concerned with population estimates. The paper considers alternative methods for deriving estimates of immigration from the raw data and presents estimates of net immigration from 1950 to 1965. They are developed from estimates previously published by the Bureau of the Census, but they differ at some points where new data have become available or where a review of the data has led to a change in judgment on how best to use them. The paper also presents suggestions on how immigration statistics might be altered for purposes of improving the estimates.Census data may be used to estimate net immigration by three different methods, but upon analysis each method proves to be inadequate. Hence, data based on visas surrendered at the port of entry must be the principal source of immigration estimates. These data have their limitations because (1) they do not cover net arrivals of citizens from abroad and from Puerto Rico, (2) they do not report departures of aliens, and (3) they do not allocate all immigrants to year of entry. Alien registration and passenger data offer possible alternative estimates.The paper attempts to measure unrecorded immigration, discusses how net arrivals of citizens from abroad and from Puerto Rico may be estimated, and how the age, sex, and race of immigrants may be treated.     

Research Note: US Census Same-Sex Couple Data: Adjustments to Reduce Measurement Error and Empirical Implications

US Census same-sex couple data represent one of the richest and most frequently used data resources for studying the LGBT population. Recently, the Census Bureau conducted an analysis of a serious measurement problem in these data, finding that as many as 40 % of same-sex couples tabulated in Census 2000 and 28 % of those tabulated in Census 2010 were likely misclassified different-sex couples (O’Connell and Feliz, Bureau of the Census, 2011). As a result, the Census Bureau released new state-level “preferred” estimates for the number of same-sex couples in these years, as well as previously unavailable information regarding the error rate of sex misclassification among different-sex married and unmarried couples by state and year. Researchers can use this information to adjust same-sex couple tabulations for geographic areas below the state level. Using these resources, this study: (1) considers in greater detail how the properties of the same-sex couple error might affect statistical inference, (2) offers a method for developing sub-state estimates of same-sex couples, and (3) demonstrates how using adjusted estimates can improve inference in analyses that rely on understanding the distribution of same-sex couples. In order to accomplish the third task, we replicate an analysis by McVeigh and Diaz (American Sociological Review 74: 891–915, 2009) that used county level Census 2000 unadjusted same-sex couple data, substitute our adjusted same-sex couple estimate, and examine the way in which this substitution affects findings. Our results demonstrate the improved accuracy of the adjusted measure and provide the formula that researchers can use to adjust the same-sex couple distribution in future analyses.     

Completeness of India's sample registration system: an assessment using the general growth balance method

In the preceding issue of this journal, a generalized version of the Brass growth balance method was proposed that made it applicable to populations that are not stable and are open to migration. In this companion paper, the results of applying this new procedure to data from India's Sample Registration system for the decades 1971-80 and 1981-90 are discussed. The results at the national level show that, during the decade 1981-90, 5 percent of the deaths among men, 12 percent of the deaths among women, and about 7 percent of births were being missed by the system. Further, it is estimated that the level of under-enumeration in the 1991 Census was more than that of the 1981 Census by 0.7 percent for males and 1.4 percent for females. The paper also presents results for major Indian states.     

Age-sex structure of the United States in 2000: Early results from Census 2000

Recently data on age and sex for the United States have beenreleased in the Census 2000 data product Summary File 1. This paper presents someearly analysis on the shape of the age and sex structure from Census 2000 data throughstatistics and graphics on national and sub-national levels. Also highlighted are comparisonswith data from the 1990 census.     

Population growth in the 1990s: Patterns within the United States 1

Census 2000 counted 281.4 million people in the UnitedStates, up 13.2 percentfrom the 1990 Census population of 248.7 million and thehighest percent increasefor the nation since the 1960s. Population growth in the1990s was not only higherthan in recent decades, it was also more geographicallywidespread, with more states,counties, and cities experiencing population gains.This paper examines populationgrowth during the 1990s for a variety of geographiclevels, including regions, divisions,states, metropolitan areas, counties and large cities.It then compares growth rates forthe 1990s with earlier decades to provide a historicalcontext to present-day trends inpopulation growth and decline. Finally, it discusses howdifferential population growthin recent decades has resulted in a new form of populationdistribution in the US.     

Two hundred years and counting: the 1990 census

On April 1, 1990, the US will take a national census, marking 200 years of census taking in America. A national census has been taken every 10 years in the US since 1790. Mandated by the US Constitution, the decennial census is the basis for reapportionment of the House of Representatives. California, Texas, and Florida are expected to gain the most Congressional seats following the 1990 Census, reflecting above-average population growth in these states. The census also provides important information about the characteristics of the American people, and a growing number of federal, state and local government programs, private corporations, and community agencies use census data. Each census provides a portrait of America, and over the decades these portraits have revealed much about how our country has changed as we have grown from a young agrarian nation of about 4 million people clustered along the Eastern seaboard to a complex post-industrial society of nearly 250 million spread across the continent and beyond. Techniques for taking the census have steadily improved over the past 2 centuries. The 1990 Census will rely heavily on computerization in all its aspects, including field operations, processing, geography, data tabulations, and products. It is likely to be the most accurate census in our history. The 1990 Census is already the subject of a lawsuit, however, charging that minority groups will be counted less completely than the white population. A series of similar lawsuits followed the 1980 Census, but all were unsuccessful. This Bulletin discusses the Census Bureau's plans for taking the 1990 Census, looks back on 200 years of census taking in America, and details such key aspects of the 1990 Census as the questionnaire, census geography and data dissemination plans, census undercount and the homeless.     

Deprivation Index for Small Areas Based on Census Data in Argentina

Social Indicators Research - This paper presents the construction and estimation of a deprivation index based on Principal Factors Analysis for the 2010 Argentina Population and Housing Census in a...     

Consensual partnering in Australia: A review and 1991 census profile

This paper is the first part of a two-part examination of consensual partnering in Australia. It reviews the Australian literature on consensual partnering, summarizing evidence of its proliferation since the mid-1960s and also the findings of investigations into its nature and the personal attributes that predispose some people more than others to adopt it. It then discusses the shortcomings of Australian census data as a source for studying consensual unions, before using data from the 1991 Census to present the first elements in a comprehensive profile of the cohabiting population. These cover the basic demography of consensual partnering: the ages, marital statuses and family type distributions of those involved. The second author contributed to this paper while a student of Graduate Studies in Demography, The Australian National University. Views expressed are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Australian Bureau of Statistics.     

Forecasts of population in the United States

In this paper the author discusses the work of the Division of the U.S. Bureau of the Census, which is concerned with forecasting populations. He traces the development of these activities and considers some of the actual forecasts that have been made.     

U.S. Bureau of the Census: facing the future labor shortage

"This article begins with a brief overview of the [U.S.] Census Bureau's preparations for the future, then discusses the demographic and social changes that are affecting the national labor force, from which the Census Bureau hires its workers. The final section considers how the bureau and its mission are affected by these changes."     

Moving from a decennial census to a continuous measurement survey: factors affecting nonresponse at the neighborhood level

The Census Bureau is testing a continuous measurement program, known as the American Community Survey (ACS), which will provide census “long form” data annually, though with slightly higher levels of sampling variability. This paper focuses on the 1999–2001 ACS in the Bronx, 1 of 31 ACS test sites. It examines whether the quality of ACS data in the Bronx varies across neighborhoods, focusing specifically on how neighborhood sociodemographic factors influence nonresponse, as measured by mail return and allocation rates. It also examines whether these neighborhood factors have a differential impact on nonresponse in the ACS and the 2000 decennial census, and discusses reasons why this may be so.The ACS mail return rates are not only lower than those of the census, but are highly sensitive to race and socioeconomic distress. Despite this initial disadvantage, the ACS has lower levels of allocation on key variables, relative to the 2000 Census. Moreover, the effect of neighborhood socioeconomic distress on allocation rates in the ACS was minimal, compared to its effect on census allocation. We find that the overall quality of ACS data in the Bronx is superior to that of the decennial census. Our analysis of Bronx data suggests that the proposed elimination of the decennial long form and its replacement with the ACS is a reasonable tradeoff for users of small area data.     

Joint custody law and mothers’ labor market outcomes: evidence from the USA

This paper studies the economic implications for mothers of the changes in child custody law from maternal preference to joint custody using the 1960–2000 Census Public Use Micro Sample (IPUMS). Variation in the timing of the joint custody reform across states provides a natural experimental framework to study the causal effect of shared custody on mothers’ economic outcomes. The results show that only single mothers experience a decrease in earnings as a consequence of the adoption of the joint custody law, exposing them to a higher risk of poverty. The paper discusses a possible explanation for these findings, namely that the higher child support payment the mother receives from the non-custodial father in case of joint custody might discourage her from looking for high paid jobs or investing in her career.     

A first look at the 21st Century: Census 2000

This paper examines the initial results from Census 2000. It focuses onpopulation growth and distribution, and the five populationcharacteristics from the 100-percent data: age, sex, Hispanic origin, race, and householdrelationship. It explores emerging trends within an historical and global context.     

Statistics and politics: The “hispanic issue” in the 1980 census

Based upon documents and interviews, this paper presents an analytical history of interactions between the United States Bureau of the Census and Mexican-American leaders preparatory to the 1980 census. Participants confronted several issues, such as defining Hispanic ethnicity, designing instruments and field procedures, and maximizing public participation. Although census officials and ethnic leaders aimed at getting a “full count,” the former emphasized scientific objectives while the latter emphasized the political.     

Small Area Indices of Multiple Deprivation in South Africa

This paper presents the Provincial Indices of Multiple Deprivation that were constructed by the authors at ward level using 2001 Census data for each of South Africa’s nine provinces. The principles adopted in conceptualising the indices are described and multiple deprivation is defined as a weighted combination of discrete dimensions of deprivation. The methodological approach used is outlined and key findings are presented for one province—the Eastern Cape. The paper summarises the ways in which the research is being developed further and the potential uses of these tools for policy and research.     

Spatial weighting improves accuracy in small-area demographic forecasts of urban census tract populations

Existing research in small-area demographic forecasting suffers from two important limitations: (1) a paucity of studies that quantify patterns of error in either total or age/sex-specific estimates and (2) limited methodological innovation aimed specifically at improving the accuracy of such forecasts. This paper attempts to fill, in part, these gaps in existing research by presenting a comparative evaluation of the accuracy of standard and spatially-weighted Hamilton–Perry forecasts for urbanized census tracts within incorporated New Mexico municipalities. These comparative forecasts are constructed for a 10-year horizon (base 1 April 2000 and target 1 April 2010), then compared to the results of the 2010 Census in an ex post facto evaluation. Results are presented for the standard Hamilton–Perry forecasts as well as two sets that incorporate two common variants of spatial weights to improve forecast accuracy. Findings are discussed in the context of what is currently known about error in small-area demographic forecasts and with an eye toward continued innovations.     

Aboriginal migration and labour market programs

Despite the potential for government employment policies both to encourage and preclude migration among the Aboriginal workforce, little is known about the impacts of such policies. This paper seeks to construct a base line for identifying these impacts by establishing the spatial structure of labour migration among the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. It makes use of 1986 Census data to describe the volume and pattern of net and gross flows of working-age Aborigines and Islanders through the national settlement system, distinguishing between movements in remote and closely settled parts of the country. Full determination of the links between policy and migration flows awaits comparison with 1991 Census results.     

An evaluation of the American Community Survey: results from the Oregon test site

The American Community Survey (ACS) is a Census Bureau product designed to provide accurate and timely demographic and economic indicators on an annual basis for both large and small geographic areas within the United States. Operational plans for Census 2010 call for ACS to replace the decennial census long form (Census LF), pending the results of evaluation studies. This plan represents a major change in that variables that traditionally have been collected on a “snapshot” basis once every 10 years would be collected on a “rolling” annual basis. Using a loss function analysis and other tools, this paper reports preliminary findings from a comparison of ACS and Census 2000 results in Multnomah County, Oregon, one of five national “local expert” test sites set up to compare ACS data collected at the time of Census 2000. The preliminary findings suggest that there are notable differences between some of the corresponding variables found in the ACS and Census LF that require more detailed examination. For example, the loss function analysis reveals notable differences for race and disability variables. In other comparisons of corresponding variables between ACS and Census 2000, differences are found within each of the four major areas of interest: (1) demographic characteristics, (2) social characteristics, (3) economic characteristics, and (4) housing characteristics, with housing characteristics showing the least similarity overall. These results also suggest that more detailed examinations are needed to understand differences between corresponding variables collected by ACS and the Census LF.     

A demographic examination of grandparent caregivers in the Census 2000 Supplementary Survey

As part of the 1996 Welfare Reform Act, the Census Bureau is required to determine how many grandparents are serving as caregivers to a grandchild. Using data from the Census 2000 Supplementary Survey, this paper presents demographic information on two types of grandparent households, and outlines the challenges associated with use of the new questions about grandparent care developed by the Census Bureau. We compare skipped-generation households, in which a grandparent and grandchild coreside but no parent is present, to three-generation shared-care households in which the grandparent claims primary responsibility for the grandchild. We focus on two geographic regions of the United States, New England and the Deep South, providing the first report on the prevalence and characteristics of these households, and the extent to which these attributes are geographically variable. We estimate that the population of three-generation shared-care families is at least as large as the population ofskipped-generation grandparent care families.We identify a number of differences between skipped-generation and shared-care households, especially with respect to the age of the grandchildren involved and the levels of economic hardship. Significant regional differences are also observed, with grandparent care households of both types being more common in the Deep South than in New England. We conclude that data using these new questions have the potential to greatly enrich our demographic understanding of grandparent households by shedding new light on a type of grandparent care often hidden from analysis: grandparents who are responsible for grandchildren in three-generation households.