Climate Change Risk Perception and Communication: Addressing a Critical Moment?

Climate change is an increasingly salient issue for societies and policy‐makers worldwide. It now raises fundamental interdisciplinary issues of risk and uncertainty analysis and communication. The growing scientific consensus over the anthropogenic causes of climate change appears to sit at odds with the increasing use of risk discourses in policy: for example, to aid in climate adaptation decision making. All of this points to a need for a fundamental revision of our conceptualization of what it is to do climate risk communication. This Special Collection comprises seven papers stimulated by a workshop on “Climate Risk Perceptions and Communication” held at Cumberland Lodge Windsor in 2010. Topics addressed include climate uncertainties, images and the media, communication and public engagement, uncertainty transfer in climate communication, the role of emotions, localization of hazard impacts, and longitudinal analyses of climate perceptions. Climate change risk perceptions and communication work is critical for future climate policy and decisions.     

American Risk Perceptions: Is Climate Change Dangerous?

Public risk perceptions can fundamentally compel or constrain political, economic, and social action to address particular risks. Public support or opposition to climate policies (e.g., treaties, regulations, taxes, subsidies) will be greatly influenced by public perceptions of the risks and dangers posed by global climate change. This article describes results from a national study (2003) that examined the risk perceptions and connotative meanings of global warming in the American mind and found that Americans perceived climate change as a moderate risk that will predominantly impact geographically and temporally distant people and places. This research also identified several distinct interpretive communities, including naysayers and alarmists, with widely divergent perceptions of climate change risks. Thus, "dangerous" climate change is a concept contested not only among scientists and policymakers, but among the American public as well.     

What's Wrong with Risk Matrices?

Risk matrices—tables mapping "frequency" and "severity" ratings to corresponding risk priority levels—are popular in applications as diverse as terrorism risk analysis, highway construction project management, office building risk analysis, climate change risk management, and enterprise risk management (ERM). National and international standards (e.g., Military Standard 882C and AS/NZS 4360:1999) have stimulated adoption of risk matrices by many organizations and risk consultants. However, little research rigorously validates their performance in actually improving risk management decisions. This article examines some mathematical properties of risk matrices and shows that they have the following limitations. (a) Poor Resolution . Typical risk matrices can correctly and unambiguously compare only a small fraction (e.g., less than 10%) of randomly selected pairs of hazards. They can assign identical ratings to quantitatively very different risks ("range compression"). (b) Errors . Risk matrices can mistakenly assign higher qualitative ratings to quantitatively smaller risks. For risks with negatively correlated frequencies and severities, they can be "worse than useless," leading to worse-than-random decisions. (c) Suboptimal Resource Allocation . Effective allocation of resources to risk-reducing countermeasures cannot be based on the categories provided by risk matrices. (d) Ambiguous Inputs and Outputs . Categorizations of severity cannot be made objectively for uncertain consequences. Inputs to risk matrices (e.g., frequency and severity categorizations) and resulting outputs (i.e., risk ratings) require subjective interpretation, and different users may obtain opposite ratings of the same quantitative risks. These limitations suggest that risk matrices should be used with caution, and only with careful explanations of embedded judgments.     

When Does Poor Governance Presage Biosecurity Risk?

Border inspection, and the challenge of deciding which of the tens of millions of consignments that arrive should be inspected, is a perennial problem for regulatory authorities. The objective of these inspections is to minimize the risk of contraband entering the country. As an example, for regulatory authorities in charge of biosecurity material, consignments of goods are classified before arrival according to their economic tariff number. This classification, perhaps along with other information, is used as a screening step to determine whether further biosecurity intervention, such as inspection, is necessary. Other information associated with consignments includes details such as the country of origin, supplier, and importer, for example. The choice of which consignments to inspect has typically been informed by historical records of intercepted material. Fortunately for regulators, interception is a rare event; however, this sparsity undermines the utility of historical records for deciding which containers to inspect. In this article, we report on an analysis that uses more detailed information to inform inspection. Using quarantine biosecurity as a case study, we create statistical profiles using generalized linear mixed models and compare different model specifications with historical information alone, demonstrating the utility of a statistical modeling approach. We also demonstrate some graphical model summaries that provide managers with insight into pathway governance.     

Risk or Efficacy? How Psychological Distance Influences Climate Change Engagement

Construal-level theory suggests that high-level abstract features weigh more in people's decision-making at farther distance, while low-level concrete features weigh more at closer distance. Based on this, we propose that psychological distance will influence the effect of risk versus efficacy framing on climate change engagement. In particular, risk perception related to the end-state expectancy of climate change mitigation should influence people's climate change engagement at farther distance. In contrast, efficacy perception related to the perceived feasibility of attaining end-state goals should influence engagement at closer distance. Results from an experimental survey based on a national sample that is both demographically and geographically representative (N = 1,282) supported our proposition. At closer spatial distance, perceived efficacy boosted by efficacy framing increased participants’ intention to perform climate mitigation behaviors. In contrast, at farther distance, risk framing increased behavioral intention through heightened risk perception. Based on these findings, we suggest that when communicating distant and abstract risks, highlighting their disastrous impacts may better motivate action. In contrast, when communicating impending and concrete risks, stressing the feasibility of action may have stronger motivational potential.     

Pay Referents and Satisfaction with Pay: Does Occupational Proximity Matter?

We explore whether employees compare their pay to the pay of others in a similarly prestigious occupation and, if so, whether this comparison has a negative impact on pay satisfaction. Using an experimental vignette methodology, Study 1 found that people are more inclined to compare with others from a similar or identical occupation and that comparison negatively impacts pay satisfaction. This comparison and its negative effect is particularly strong in high‐prestige occupations. Based on survey data, Study 2 also showed that the average pay of others in occupations of similar prestige is negatively correlated with employees’ pay satisfaction. This negative correlation was also stronger in higher‐prestige occupations. Our analysis highlights the importance of occupational prestige as a main factor influencing pay comparison.     

People's Preferences for Safety Control: Why Does Baseline Risk Matter?

Previous tests of how people's valuations of safety vary with the level of baseline risk have left policymakers with a rather mixed message. Some data support the conventional hypothesis derived from economic theory that marginal valuations of risk changes increase with the baseline level, but other data reject it. With these indeterminate findings in mind, the present study adopted an in-depth quantitative-qualitative methodology to explore the preferences of a general population sample (N = 147) for safety programs targeted at hazards with different age groups at risk and numbers of deaths per year. The data clearly showed that self- or household interest mattered to people (e.g., programs in which the respondent or their household members were in the at-risk age group were evaluated more positively). The number of deaths also mattered, although not always for reasons strictly consistent with the conventional hypothesis. Rather, the qualitative findings suggested that evaluations may be driven by auxiliary assumptions about aspects of the programs induced by this information (e.g., people believe that a higher number of deaths is an indicator that more people are likely to be exposed to that hazard). These findings bring into question the extent to which quantitative responses from stated preference surveys can be taken at face value to form a reliable basis for public policy.     

Why Do Neighbors Have Different Environmental Priorities? Analysis of Environmental Risk Perception in a Beirut Neighborhood

Differences in environmental priorities within an urban neighborhood of Beirut are analyzed. The explanatory capabilities of five categories of contextual variables are compared: socioeconomic status, locality, health, behavior, and environmental beliefs. Semi-structured interviews with key individuals in the community and residents were first conducted. Four environmental issues of concern were identified. A survey was carried out to identify the relative priority accorded by respondents to these four issues, and to measure variables likely to explain differences of opinion. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted for each of the four problems. The 99% confidence interval (CI) of the odds ratio (OR) was used as a test of significance. Respondents suffering from a respiratory disease (OR = 6.94, 99%CI = 1.54-31.25), those living in less crowded houses (OR = 4.88, 99%CI = 1.38-17.24), and those not living close to the neighborhood's industrial street (OR=5.26, 99%CI = 1.01-27.78) are significantly more likely to rank poor air quality first. Significant associations are found between poor water quality as first priority and nonpresence of a smoker in the household (OR = 6.12, 99%CI = 1.84-20.32) and perception of water salinity as a problem (OR = 7.46, 99%CI = 1.50-37.03). Males (OR = 6.94, 99%CI = 1.02-47.62) and tenants versus owners (OR = 10.49, 99%CI = 1.36-80.61) are significantly more likely to rank the residential-industrial mix first. Socioeconomic variables retain their explanatory capability in the studied neighborhood, despite relatively small income disparities. Behavioral variables, such as smoking, may be causative factors of priorities. Analyzing relative priorities, rather than "concern" or lack of it, reveals more complex patterns of association. Identifying environmental-perception divide lines can help develop a more inclusive and effective participatory environmental management.     

Fast and Furious or Slow and Cautious? The Joint Impact of Age at Internationalization,Speed, and Risk Diversity on the Survival of Exporting Firms

This article examines the effect of age at internationalization and pace of internationalization on the survival of small and medium-sized enterprises. Two sets of hypotheses are developed on the basis of the sequential expansion and international new venture approaches. These hypotheses are tested using an event-history method and panel data on French SMEs that exported for the first time between 2003 and 2012 (547 firm-year observations). The results show that the failure rate for firms adopting the late, slow, and cautious sequential expansion approach is significantly lower than in small firms adopting other paths to internationalization.     

Does Size Matter? A Study of Risk Perceptions of Global Population Growth

The global human population now exceeds 7 billion and is projected to reach 10 billion around 2060. While population growth has been associated with certain benefits (e.g., economies of scale, technological advancements), theoretical models, probabilistic projections, and empirical evidence also indicate that this growth could increase the likelihood of many adverse events (e.g., climate change, resource shortages) and the impact of these events, as more people are exposed to the outcomes. While concerns about these issues are well‐documented in the academic literature, there is little evidence concerning the public's perceptions of the risks associated with global population growth (GPG) and how these perceptions are likely to influence related decisions. To address these issues, we conducted a U.K.‐based study that examined respondents’ risk perceptions of GPG, their willingness to embrace mitigation/precautionary behaviors, and reasons for variations in these two factors. We found that GPG is perceived as a moderate‐to‐high risk, with concerns about the increased likelihood of resource shortages, ecological damage, and violent conflict being foremost. Respondents believed that the worst effects of GPG would arrive around 2050 and would be experienced by the world's poorest people. Respondents who perceived greater levels of risk from GPG were generally those who indicated a greater willingness to embrace mitigation behaviors (e.g., reduce resource consumption) and preventative actions (e.g., support political action to limit growth). We discuss how our findings might be utilized to better manage the potential challenges associated with GPG and we suggest several directions for further research.     

Who is a Distracted Driver? Associations between Mobile Phone Use while Driving,Domain‐Specific Risk Taking,and Personality

Mobile phone use while driving (MPUWD) is an increasingly common form of distracted driving. Given its widespread prevalence, it is important for researchers to identify factors that may predict who is more likely to engage in this risky behavior. The current study investigates associations between MPUWD risk behaviors, domain‐specific risk perceptions, and broad personality dimensions. An Italian community sample (n = 804) completed a survey regarding MPUWD risk perceptions and engagement in MPUWD, in addition to the HEXACO‐PI‐R, a broad six‐factor personality inventory (honesty‐humility, emotionality, extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, openness to experience), and the DOSPERT, a six‐factor domain‐specific self‐report risk‐taking measure (health/safety, recreational, social, ethical, gambling, and investment). With respect to domain‐specific risk taking, greater frequency of SMS use while driving most strongly was associated with greater risk taking for the health/safety, gambling, and ethical risk domains. Further, greater honesty‐humility and conscientiousness, two traits related to cognitive control and risk behaviors, and to a lesser extent openness to experience, were associated with less frequent MPUWD, and positively associated with MPUWD risk perceptions. With growing public safety concern surrounding MPUWD, understanding associated personality factors is not only important for identifying psychological mechanisms underlying risk behavior, but also for more effective prevention and intervention programs.     

Better Safe than Sorry? The Effects of Income Risk and Unemployment Risk on Wages

We study the effects of income risk and unemployment risk on individual wages simultaneously. Starting point for the empirical analysis is a portfolio model for the labor market. This model shows positive wage effects for both risks but also a negative interaction effect. Using German administrative panel data we estimate the effects of the income risk, the unemployment risk and their interaction on individual wages separately for men and women in East and West Germany. We find the expected positive wage effects for both risks as well as a negative interaction effect. The marginal effect of income risk on wages is positive, whereas the marginal effect of unemployment risk is negative.     

Does Modern Organization and Governance Threat Solidarity?

This article focuses on solidarity behaviours of employees to team members (horizontal solidarity behaviour) and to their manager (vertical solidarity behaviour). The question is asked to what extend and how are both types of solidarity related to three aspects of modern organization and governance: dual earner families, flexible labour contracts, and formal and informal governance structures. Survey data of 17 Dutch organizations (N = 1347) show in relation to dual-earner families that having children has a positive relationship with horizontal solidarity behaviour, and working overtime has a positive relationship with vertical solidarity behaviour. Related to the flexible labour contracts, no relationship was found with type of labour contract and expected years within the organization. Finally, some traits of informal and formal governance structures, namely information on rules and the presence of explicit fair play rules are fond to be positively related to solidarity.She worked on this article during a visit at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.     

What drives contract design in alliances? Taking stock and how to proceed

We collect and assess prior empirical evidence on contract design in alliances that has been published since Parkhe’s (1993) seminal study on inter-firm contracts. We elaborate on the effects of transaction-related factors, experience gained from prior relationships, and deliberate learning efforts on contracts. Our paper offers three contributions. First, we systematically review the existing literature on alliance contracts and summarize our findings. Second, while prior research has traditionally focused on contractual complexity, we place the content of contracts center stage and identify three contractual functions. While existing studies on contractual functions predominantly refer to safeguarding as a response to appropriation concerns, we also consider coordination and contingency adaptability as outcomes of adaptation concerns. Third, we disentangle the differential influences of previous experiences on distinct contractual functions and show that experience gained from prior relationships has different effects on safeguarding and contingency adaptability than on coordination. Overall, we add to the systematization of the current debate on alliance contract design and trace promising avenues for future research on the impact of transaction- and experience-related factors on the complexity and content of alliance contracts.     

Does Corporate Culture Affect Bank Risk‐Taking? Evidence from Loan‐Level Data

Using comprehensive corporate and retail loan data, we show that the corporate culture of banks explains their risk‐taking behaviour. Banks whose corporate culture leans towards aggressive competition are associated with riskier lending practices: higher approval rate, lower borrower quality, and fewer covenant requirements. Consequently, these banks incur larger loan losses and make greater contributions to systemic risk. The opposite behaviour is observed among banks whose culture emphasizes control and safety. Our findings cannot be explained by heterogeneity in a bank's business model, CEO compensation incentives or CEO characteristics. We use an exogenous shock to the US banking system during the 1998 Russian default crisis to support a causal inference.     

Keep Your Friends Close? Supply Chain Design and Disruption Risk

In this article, we evaluate the relationship between supply chain design decisions and supply chain disruption risk. We explore two supply chain design strategies: (i) the dispersion of supply chain partners to reduce supply chain disruption risk versus (ii) the co‐location of supply chain partners to reduce supply chain disruption risk. In addition, we assess supply chain disruption risk from three perspectives: the inbound material flow from the supplier (supply side), the internal production processes (internal), and the outbound material flow to the customer (customer side) as a disruption can occur at any of these locations. We measure disruption risk in terms of stoppages in flows, reductions in flow, close calls (disruptions that were prevented at the last minute), disruption duration (time until normal operation flow was restored), and the spread of disruptions all the way through the supply chain. We use seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) to analyze our data, finding that lead times, especially supply side lead times, are significantly associated with higher levels of supply chain disruption risk. We find co‐location with suppliers appears to have beneficial effects to the reduction of disruption duration, and, overall supply side factors have a higher impact when it comes to supply chain disruption risk than comparable customer side factors.     

Is Allocation Affected by the Perception of Others' Irresponsible Behavior and by Ambiguity?

The article examines how the perception of others' irresponsible behavior and ambiguity regarding probabilities affect allocation among potential beneficiaries. To elicit these views, we conducted a survey where the participants were first asked to make an allocation of a fixed sum of money between a hereditary cancer, where chance plays a central role, and a lifestyle‐related cancer, where individual lifestyle decisions are more important. Our estimation results show that a substantial share of the respondents allocate significantly more to the hereditary cancer. This may indicate that these respondents care about others' irresponsible behavior. Then, we elicited perceptions of cancer hazards in the form of imprecise probabilities and examined the interplay between allocating behavior and risk perceptions. Finally, we investigated the effects of various socioeconomic characteristics, and of awareness of highly publicized cancer cases, on respondents' allocations.