转型时期的中东社会和当前政治危机分析

二战后,中东国家进入社会发展的转型时期,目前处于矛盾集中爆发且极为动荡的"过渡政治发展阶段"。中东国家必须面对一系列既有来自外部也有自身发展无法回避的严峻挑战和重要任务。当前中东出现的政治危机大致分为三种类型,其产生既有多种现实动因,也有深层社会原因和外部势力的影响。政治危机已对中东各国政治发展产生了重大影响。中东国家已步入矛盾、危机多发期,下一次政治震荡可能会冲击中东君主制国家。     

关于中东变局的若干基本问题

中东变局是一场席卷阿拉伯世界的地区性政治与社会运动,它以发展民主、改善民生为其主要政治诉求,以推翻现政权为目标的政治抗议浪潮为其典型表现形式。中东国家的政治变革既有典型的共性特征,又有鲜明的差异性特点,同时有着深刻的政治、经济和思想文化根源。从未来的发展趋势看,民主化、世俗化以及如何处理与西方的关系问题构成了影响阿拉伯国家政治变革的三大核心议题,而阿拉伯国家、以色列、土耳其、伊朗四大力量的地位变化和地区热点问题的复杂化则成为中东地区格局变化的主要趋势。     

中东剧变与中国中东政策

中东动荡历时一年多,导致该地区多国政权更迭,并迅速扩展到叙利亚,叙危机已成为这场动荡旋涡的中心.伊斯兰势力的崛起成为这些转型国家面临的严峻课题.动荡使中东地区格局面临新的调整,地区大国间矛盾和力量消长,将影响有关国家政局和热点问题走向.美国调整中东政策,深刻影响了地区局势走向.中国坚持“不干涉内政”原则,尊重有关国家人民自主选择的原则立场,得到国际社会理解和肯定.中东形势演变对中国中东外交带来重要机遇和严峻挑战,中国应审时度势,积极应对,谋求中国与中东国家关系的新发展.     

中东剧变中的阿尔及利亚政局透视

2010年底以来,中东地区多国发生了政权更迭,阿尔及利亚一度爆发群众游行示威,但目前阿尔及利亚政局基本稳定,原因可归纳为以下四个方面:一是阿尔及利亚独立以来的长期动荡释放了民众的不满;二是布特弗利卡执政联盟仍具有较强的政治实力;三是国内的两个主要反对派因其各自的缺陷,难以获得大多数民众的支持;四是现政权与美国保持了较好的关系。然而,由于目前中东地区的局势尚在发展中,随着新因素的加入,阿尔及利亚的政局仍存在变数。     

Social work promoting participation: reflections on policy practice in Italy

One of the core dimensions of social work practice, identified since its establishment as a professional endeavour, is concerned with political action. Nonetheless, policy practice, which entails that social workers should connect their work with individuals, as in traditional casework, to wider political action, is often perceived as marginal in everyday practice. This paper connects views on social work policy practices to the context provided by the ways social policies are actually constructed in Italy. A research study on governance processes across Italy, addressing the main actors involved in social policy-making, reveals that in fact practitioners’ political action is differently represented within different frameworks, ranging from being seen as a near impossibility, to being perceived as a crucial factor in the policy-making processes. If context and cultures play such a relevant role, synergistic work at different levels and by all the different actors in the social work community is required if we want social workers to be able to express their potential fully in the political arena.     

中东形势剧变与中国中东政策

2011年初以来的中东动荡几乎席卷整个阿拉伯世界,它与全球金融危机一样,为世界各国所瞩目,对中东地区乃至世界政治形势的发展产生了深远影响。中国政府除尊重有关中东国家人民的自主选择权外,还应继续坚持"不干涉内政"的基本原则,继续推进中东地区稳定,加强对地区形势和中东各国政情的深入研究,建立中国企业对外投资风险评估机制,制定中国对中东地区的长期能源规划,进一步加强中国同中东地区经贸领域的务实合作。     

Territoriale Ungleichheiten in der erweiterten Eu

In a multi-level system like the European Union, social interests and conflicts are also defined in territorial categories. In this respect, the considerable regional disparities between Eastern and Western Europe may interfare with attempts at intensifying political cooperation within an enlarged European Union. They may give rise to considerable additional transfer payments or even endanger the further enlargement of the EU. This trilemma of enlargement, increased political cooperation and budgetary neutrality can only be overcome, if a polarization between East and West European interests can be avoided by a quick convergence of Eastern und Western performance levels or by a differentiation of the individual, interregional or international employment and income situation in Central and Eastern Europe. The growth rates of recent years and the economic structure of Central and Eastern Europe do not support the thesis of a quick convergence. However, the capital regions and the Western border regions in Central Europe are developing in a very dynamic way. A relatively permanent prosperity gap between Eastern and Western Europe as well as an increased regional differentiation within Central and Eastern Europe is to be expected. Historical dimensions of the economic and political differences between Eastern and Western Europe are analyzed. The relative stability of the European center-periphery structure does not support the thesis of a “deterritorialization” of social relationships. Instead, there is some evidence for a non-identical, path-dependent reproduction of long-established dependency relationships.     

Max Weinreich,assimilation and the social politics of Jewish nation-building

Through an analysis of the methodological and theoretical writings of Max Weinreich that were devoted to the inter-war Jewish youth research programme at the Jewish Scientific Institute (YIVO), this article discusses the ideological and political assumptions that lay behind this scientific project. Deconstructing the main research categories of the project, the author presents ways in which Weinreich and his associates constructed the Jewish nation and its place in the new inter-war political and social reality. This reality was seen in a complex manner, as a simultaneous chance for Jewish modernisation, upward mobility, productivisation, and as a response to the threat of modern state institutions that were introducing discriminatory policies, and, most importantly, assimilation. The last process was seen as the biggest danger, which could fragment and finally even dissolve the essentialist, secular and national model of Jewish community as envisioned by Max Weinreich and YIVO. The author shows how the essentialist vision of the nation omnipotent in inter-war Poland (among both Polish and Jewish communities) introduced unresolved tension between the need for social and cultural integration of the Jews, which was important for Weinreich and his circle, and the simultaneous aim of building a culturally and politically coherent Jewish nation. Further discussion shows how this kind of perception of social reality transformed a scientific research project into a kind of social intervention and nation-building programme, comparable to the ideologies of Jewish national secularist political parties. While presenting itself as a universal, national institution and addressing its call to all Jewish youth, YIVO promoted a particular political view of the Jewish nation and its tradition, history and religion. By engaging Jewish youth in a research programme devoted to its “personality,” one of the hidden aims of the project was to influence the political and social consciousness of Eastern Europe's Jewish youth.     

国际格局变化中的中东局势

由于世界格局发生重大变化,奥巴马政府外交政策出现了调整。美国中东政策调整幅度最大,但只是策略和手法的变化,而非战略性改变。美国宣示的调整后的中东政策不可能如实执行。随着美国力衰减,美主导中东事务的能力减弱。大中东热点问题如巴以冲突、阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争和伊朗核问题都出现了一些新的变化,但这些问题矛盾复杂,涉及面广,仍难以解决。     

The Social and Political Implications of Muslim Middle Eastern Women's Participation in Violent Political Conflict

Five cases from the twentieth centuty Islamic Middle East are investigated in terms of the role patterns of women's participation in violent political conflict and the post-conflict social and political consequences of their participation. The study finds extensive role segregation between male and female participants, and virtual absence of women from leadership roles. These conflicts are seen not to be a catalyst for permanent social and political change, and reason for this consequence are discussed.     

一战对当代中东地缘政治的影响

第一次世界大战于1918年结束,导致中东地区出现了长达一百年的冲突与对抗。帝国主义列强在解决了东方问题之后,出于一己之私而制造和加剧了当代中东问题,他们挑起阿以矛盾,制造当代中东地区的分裂,阻碍中东各国和人民的民族国家建设,催生了政治伊斯兰运动的兴起。当代中东地缘政治的塑造以及政治与社会发展进程的严重滞后,与一战及之后欧洲列强的殖民分割与统治密不可分。     

阿拉伯国家政治和社会动荡的前因及后果

阿拉伯世界的政治社会动荡有着复杂的内外原因,动荡可能开启阿拉伯世界寻求新发展道路的历史时代,但由乱到治尚须时日.动荡对中东格局和美国主导中东事务能力产生广泛影响,但美国主导地位并未根本动摇.     

中东能源地缘政治与中国能源安全

本文研究了中东地缘政治发展趋势以及未来该地区对中国能源安全的潜在影响,并就制定具有针对性的中东能源安全战略提出了建议,并认为,中国经济将继续依赖中东能源;中东政治动荡的危险正在增大,中东油气供应存在极大风险.中国的中东能源安全战略应包括:转变外交理念,平衡在中东的能源利益与不干涉内政原则间的关系,建立与中东能源供应国的相互依存关系,制定中美能源合作的长期目标,建立一个以问题为核心的功能性多边制度.     

Revolution: Refining Its Defining

Definitions of revolution have strongly influenced theorization about it. We argue here that revolution is a highly variable phenomenon. Rigid definitions of revolution do not allow for theorizing which explains this variability. Revolution can occur to various degrees along various dimensions. These include the political, international, economic, cultural, ethnic, and gender dimensions. Revolutions do not necessarily affect all these dimensions equally. Revolutions that have led to great change along some of these dimensions have also led to little or no change along others. We further argue that an understanding of revolution requires an understanding of what maintains social order.     

Explaining Terrorism: The Contribution of Collective Action Theory

Terrorism is an extreme, violent response to a failed political process engaging political regimes and ethnic and ideological adversaries over fundamental governance issues. Applying the theory of collective action, the author explains the dynamic of violence escalation and persistence. Recent Islamist terrorism stems from the conviction that a theocracy is the only answer to the multiple problems of Middle Eastern and Muslim countries. Checks on terrorism result both from external social control and from the internal contradictions of theocratic states .     

Science and neoliberal globalization: a political sociological approach

The political ideology of neoliberalism is widely recognized as having influenced the organization of national and global economies and public policies since the 1970s. In this article, we examine the relationship between the neoliberal variant of globalization and science. To do so, we develop a framework for sociology of science that emphasizes closer ties among political sociology, the sociology of social movements, and economic and organizational sociology and that draws attention to patterns of increasing and uneven industrial influence amid several countervailing processes. Specifically, we explore three fundamental changes since the 1970s: the advent of the knowledge economy and the increasing interchange between academic and industrial research and development signified by academic capitalism and asymmetric convergence; the increasing prominence of science-based regulation of technology in global trade liberalization, marked by the heightened role of international organizations and the convergence of scientism and neoliberalism; and the epistemic modernization of the relationship between scientists and publics, represented by the proliferation of new institutions of deliberation, participation, activism, enterprise, and social movement mobilization.     

中东国家核选择动因比较

国家寻求核技术主要出于核武器和核民用两个目的，具有政治、安金和经济三重动因，核选择必须满足动因的需要才能够促进国家利益最大化。中东国家核选择动因不仅受到国内政治、经济、社会形势的影响，而且受地区和国际形势的影响。美国对中东国家核选择执行多重标准，中东国家采取了模糊、强硬与温和的核政策。伊朗核问题的曲折变化集中反映了伊朗核计划与其动机存在非契合性，当前正处于微妙的阶段。     

中东恐怖主义、全球治理与中国的反恐政策

中东反恐斗争是国际反恐中最关键、最具影响的组成部分,也是国际社会面临的全球治理问题之一。它与当代的国际体系转型和政治经济秩序的重建分不开,又同中东伊斯兰国家在经济全球化深入推进的形势下,如何处理现代化进程中的改革与发展、实现制度变迁和社会转型直接相关。从中东恐怖主义产生的根源、发展和蔓延的轨迹看,中东恐怖主义既蕴含着错综复杂的历史、社会、宗教、民族等内部因素,也掺杂着外来侵略、占领、干涉以及地区国家之间领土、资源和利益等方面的矛盾和冲突等外部环境因素。中国的反恐政策既出于保护海外利益的需要,也折射了中国独特的全球治理理念和治理模式。     

Identität im Wandel — aus psychoanalytischer Sicht

?Identity“ is seen as a very broad spread and unclear conception. In times of social and political changes powerful shifts of definitions and self-experiences of identity become apparent. Only since the fifties psychoanalytical theorists have dealt with the conception of identity, i.e. within a period of individual and social insecurity after the Second World War. An exploration of identity change of these days especially of the German society deals with external radical changes but also with intrapsychical changes, which can be connected with readjustment to nursing habits and with an often observed disapperance of paternal principles. ?Identity“ also deserves special attention as a spring hostility to foreigners and of antisemitism. There cannot be recommended a ?therapy“ against today’s difficulties of identity; instead it is importent to promote personal and public competence of thinking and reflection in favour of advantage of identity in its progressive and regressive movements.     

中东伊斯兰国家转型中的“美国因素”

2011年以来,中东地区政局动荡,民众反美情绪日高,这充分暴露了美国中东战略的失误,主要体现在几个方面:美国的横行成为引发中东动荡的一个重要诱因;巴以争端依旧,令阿拉伯人十分不满;为了稳住中东,化被动为主动,以继续掌握中东事务的主导权,奥巴马提出了中东"新思维"。尽管新意不多,但体现了美国政府对中东政策的调整,并日渐清晰。尤其值得一提的是,美国正在打造埃及这个"民主过渡"样板,以促中东其他国家仿效。