Unconventional Gas Development in the USA: Exploring the Risk Perception Issues

Unconventional gas development (UGD) is growing rapidly in the United States. Drawing on insights from risk perception and risk governance theories and recent public opinion surveys, we find that UGD is an emerging technology that is likely to be perceived as risky, even though objective risk assessments suggest that risks are low and controllable through best risk management practices. Perceived risk varies significantly depending on the state and locality but perceptions of risk appear to be increasing as the technology is used more widely in the United States and as organized opponents of the technology intensify their efforts. Risk perceptions are attenuated somewhat because of the perceived benefits of UGD and compensation schemes for individuals and communities. The types of triggering events necessary for large‐scale social amplification and stigmatization have not yet occurred but awareness of UGD is growing and organized opposition has been sufficient to cause prohibitions of UGD in some U.S. states and localities. Additional directions for social science research on public reactions to UGD are recommended.     

基于GMDH-RSM方法的非常规油气生产技术多指标组合对产能的影响效应研究

地质指标、技术指标与产能的关联分析对非常规油气生产科学决策具有重要指导意义。为了将单因素影响产能的数量关系拓展到指标组合取值与产能量化关系的研究层面,本文以致密气开发为例,从“开发全流程”中不同因素影响产能因果关系切入,就“技术指标-产能”因果链剖析可控技术因素的多指标组合情景与产能的量化关系,提出生产技术条件优化的方案。构建GMDH-RSM模型分析,首先给出产能关键影响因素选择的科学依据;其次对筛选的关键因素分类,提取可控类指标;最后分析可控类技术指标的组合取值情景与产能的量化影响形式与可视化结果。结果显示技术指标不同取值组合通过二阶方程式影响产能。通过技术指标不同取值组合的情景选择可以获得相应的技术产出效果,实现产能控制。本文结论明确了致密气开发的技术指标对产能影响的数量关系形式,为产能管理提供了决策的实证参考。     

审计师-客户公司的地理邻近性与会计稳健性

 近年来,相关研究发现地理区位特征是影响经济主体行为决策及其后果的重要因素。在审计实践中,有些上市公司倾向于聘请地理邻近的本地会计师事务所提供审计服务,而有些上市公司却喜欢“舍近求远”聘请外地会计师事务所提供审计服务。这个现象说明,审计师的地理区位特征很可能是影响上市公司与审计师间交互行为的一个重要潜在因素。        基于客户公司会计稳健性的视角,以地理经济学相关理论为支撑,探讨审计师的地理区位特征对审计师审计行为的影响,进而检验对客户公司会计稳健性的影响。        综合考虑中国关系型社会和法制不健全的转型经济背景,研究审计师与客户公司间地理距离对客户公司会计稳健性的影响。利用2004年至2014年中国A股上市公司的13 624个年度观察数据为研究样本,使用OLS、工具变量的2SLS、Petersen所采用的稳健回归等多元回归分析方法进行实证检验。        研究结果表明,①审计师-客户公司地理距离越近,客户公司的会计稳健性越低,即地理邻近性降低了客户公司的会计稳健性;②与国际四大相比,非国际四大审计师与客户公司间的地理邻近性对客户公司会计稳健性的消极影响显著更强;③相对于监管强度高的地区,审计师-客户公司的地理邻近性对会计稳健性的消极影响在监管强度低的地区表现得更强。此外,对内生性、计量估计模型、主要变量度量方法和样本筛选等问题进行的稳健性检验结果表明,上述研究结论稳健成立。        审计师的地理邻近性会降低客户公司的会计稳健性,因为地理邻近性会特别损害会计稳健性所依赖的外部审计的独立性,而良好的审计师声誉和外部监管环境则有利于在一定程度上缓解审计师的地理邻近性对客户公司会计稳健性的不利影响。相关结果加深了对审计师行为动机及其后果的理解,对审计师在审计本地客户时加强独立性、监管机构加强针对性的监管以及完善各种内外部治理机制都具有重要的政策启示意义。     

Cultural Values,Trust, and Benefit‐Risk Perceptions of Hydraulic Fracturing: A Comparative Analysis of Policy Elites and the General Public

Hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) has recently become a very intensely debated process for extracting oil and gas. Supporters argue that fracking provides positive economic benefits and energy security and offers a decreased reliance on coal‐based electricity generation. Detractors claim that the fracking process may harm the environment as well as place a strain on local communities that experience new fracking operations. This study utilizes a recently conducted survey distributed to a sample of policy elites and the general public in Arkansas and Oregon to examine the role of cultural value predispositions and trust in shaping the perceptions of risks and benefits associated with fracking. Findings indicate that cultural values influence both trust and benefit‐risk perceptions of fracking for both policy elites and the general public. More specifically, we found that trust in information from various sources is derived from the intrinsic values held by an individual, which in turn impacts perceptions of related benefits and risks. We also found that while the overall pattern of relationships is similar, trust plays a larger role in the formulation of attitudes for policy elites than for the general public. We discuss the implications of the mediating role of trust in understanding value‐driven benefit‐risk perceptions, as well as the disparate role of trust between policy elites and the general public in the context of the policy‐making process for both theory and practice.     

The Effect of Proximity to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on Subsequent Hurricane Outlook and Optimistic Bias

This study evaluated how individuals living on the Gulf Coast perceived hurricane risk after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. It was hypothesized that hurricane outlook and optimistic bias for hurricane risk would be associated positively with distance from the Katrina‐Rita landfall (more optimism at greater distance), controlling for historically based hurricane risk and county population density, demographics, individual hurricane experience, and dispositional optimism. Data were collected in January 2006 through a mail survey sent to 1,375 households in 41 counties on the coast (n = 824, 60% response). The analysis used hierarchal regression to test hypotheses. Hurricane history and population density had no effect on outlook; individuals who were male, older, and with higher household incomes were associated with lower risk perception; individual hurricane experience and personal impacts from Katrina and Rita predicted greater risk perception; greater dispositional optimism predicted more optimistic outlook; distance had a small effect but predicted less optimistic outlook at greater distance (model R²= 0.21). The model for optimistic bias had fewer effects: age and community tenure were significant; dispositional optimism had a positive effect on optimistic bias; distance variables were not significant (model R²= 0.05). The study shows that an existing measure of hurricane outlook has utility, hurricane outlook appears to be a unique concept from hurricane optimistic bias, and proximity has at most small effects. Future extension of this research will include improved conceptualization and measurement of hurricane risk perception and will bring to focus several concepts involving risk communication.     

网络舆论危机事件的蔓延扩散效应研究

随着Web2.0时代的到来,网络媒体已成为公共危机及其风险传播的主要途径,舆论危机的形成和演化也成为日益突出的社会风险问题。其中,网络舆论的蔓延过程及其机理的研究是舆论危机研究的重点,并逐渐受到学者的关注和社会的重视。本文以舆论危机的蔓延机理为研究对象,通过收集和梳理近年来发生的20起网络舆论危机事件,对舆论蔓延的基本内涵、表现形式和驱动因素等进行系统总结。随后,以蔓延驱动因素的研究为指导,考虑蔓延的"内部影响因子"和"外部影响因子"等,构建舆论蔓延扩散的一般性模型,并对模型的极值点和拐点等进行剖析。最后,本文以"7·23甬温动车事故"为例,对其网络舆论的蔓延扩散模型进行拟合、回归和分析。     

“Not in (or Under) My Backyard”: Geographic Proximity and Public Acceptance of Carbon Capture and Storage Facilities

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an innovative technical approach to mitigate the problem of climate change by capturing carbon dioxide emissions and injecting them underground for permanent geological storage. CCS has been perceived both positively, as an innovative approach to facilitate a more environmentally benign use of fossil fuels while also generating local economic benefits, and negatively, as a technology that prolongs the use of carbon‐intensive energy sources and burdens local communities with prohibitive costs and ecological and human health risks. This article extends existing research on the “not in my backyard” (NIMBY) phenomenon in a direction that explores the public acceptance of CCS. We utilize survey data collected from 1,001 residents of the coal‐intensive U.S. state of Indiana. Over 80% of respondents express support for the general use of CCS technology. However, 20% of these initial supporters exhibit a NIMBY‐like reaction and switch to opposition as a CCS facility is proposed close to their communities. Respondents’ worldviews, their beliefs about the local economic benefits that CCS will generate, and their concerns about its safety have the greatest impact on increasing or decreasing the acceptance of nearby facilities. These results lend valuable insights into the perceived risks associated with CCS technology and the possibilities for its public acceptance at both a national and local scale. They may be extended further to provide initial insights into likely public reactions to other technologies that share a similar underground dimension, such as hydraulic fracturing.     

The Impact of Geographic Proximity on What to Buy,How to Buy,and Where to Buy: Evidence from High‐Tech Durable Goods Market*

Social contagion effects due to geographical proximity refer to the social effects wherein the behavior of an individual varies with the behavior of other individuals who are geographically close. Although the influence of such effects on consumer choices has been established in several contexts, much of the extant studies have focused on its effect on consumers’ decision of whether to buy a new product or adopt a new innovation. There has been no systematic examination of the influence of geographic proximity on other aspects of consumers’ product buying process such as what to buy (i.e., brand choice), how to buy (i.e., the channel), and where to buy (i.e., retailers). Such effects can matter significantly in high‐technology and durable goods markets and therefore, it is critical to understand the scope of these on consumers’ choice of retailers and channel as well. Drawing on literatures from word of mouth effects, ecommerce, and consumers’ perception of risk in their purchase process, we develop a set of hypotheses on the effect of geographic proximity on consumers’ choices of what to buy, how to buy, and where to buy. Leveraging a microlevel dataset of purchases of personal computers, we develop brand‐, retailer‐, and channel‐related measures of proximity effects at the individual consumer level and estimate a joint disaggregate model of the three choices that make up a product purchase process to test these hypotheses. Our results indicate a significant contagion effect on each of the three choices. Furthermore, we find evidence of a greater effect of geographic proximity on inexperienced consumers—those who are new to the product category. Our results thus help develop a holistic understanding of the influence of social contagion effects on consumers’ decision making.     

基于VaR方法的中国石油企业跨国并购的价格风险评价

以VaR方法中的历史模拟ARMA预测方法(HSAF)为基本分析方法,以WTI原油现货价格为基本分析变量,衡量了中国石油企业在进行海外并购时面临的价格风险.研究结论表明,在97.6%的置信水平下,预测期内的VaR预测值比实际值要大得多,并且大多数情况下预测值是实际值的1～2倍.最后,对降低中国石油企业跨国并购市场风险提出了若干建议.     

环境污染、经济增长与医疗卫生服务对公共健康的影响分析——基于中国省际面板数据的研究

环境污染与经济增长对居民的公共健康水平有重要影响,但基于面板数据对此问题分区域的研究较少。本文在Grossman健康生产函数的基础上加入环境污染等多重因素,使用中国30个省市区1997年到2010年的面板数据,建立个体固定效应模型,将我国划分为东部、中部和西部三个区域,实证分析了环境污染、经济增长与医疗卫生服务对不同区域居民公共健康的影响及其差异。研究发现:环境污染、经济增长、医疗卫生服务与居民公共健康存在长期均衡的协整关系,经济增长与全国、东部和中部的公共健康关系呈现倒U型的特征;具体而言:东部区域,曲线已达到拐点,中部区域,当人均GDP为3311元时,曲线达到拐点;全国以及东、中、西部区域,工业烟尘排放量与人口死亡率呈正向关关系,工业二氧化硫排放量与人口死亡率只在中部地区显著正相关;全国、东部和中部区域人均医生数与人口死亡率呈显著负相关,西部地区未呈现这一特性;人均医疗保健支出与人口死亡率在中部地区显著负相关,医疗卫生服务可有效减少环境污染对居民的健康威胁。因此,制定差别化的环境污染、经济增长与医疗服务政策等有利于提升全国以及东中西部居民的公共健康水平。     

The use of performance measurement as a basis for project control of offshore modification oil and gas projects

The methods presented in this article are based on the qualitative and quantitative analysis of close-out data drawn from a portfolio of 38 modification projects. The primary premise is that modification projects are intrinsically subject to quantity and complexity growth during the course of detailed engineering as a consequence of the indeterminate interface with the existing facility. The normative project control routines need to be supplemented by material take-offs-based weight monitoring as a basis for re-estimation and re-calibration of the project baselines as detailed engineering proceeds in order to mitigate this uncertainty as early as possible. Similarly, estimating needs to be based on norms drawn from performance measurement of modification work rather than extrapolations from greenfield projects, particularly the work performed on the platforms. This article presents a portfolio of project control methods based on the performance measurement principle covering the short term of single projects as well as the longer term multi-project perspective.     

Animation in User Interfaces Designed for Decision Support Systems: The Effects of Image Abstraction,Transition, and Interactivity on Decision Quality*

This paper develops the idea of animation in user interfaces designed for decision support systems (DSS), proposes a framework to investigate the efficacy of animation in these interfaces, and reports on a study that examined the effects of properties of animation specified by the framework. Based on a review of selected background literature, principal properties affecting the efficacy of animation in user interfaces designed for DSS are identified and the effects on decision quality of three of these properties are hypothesized. To evaluate these hypotheses, data was collected in a laboratory experiment involving two different tasks. The results for both tasks indicate that animation in user interfaces designed for DSS should employ parallel as opposed to sequential navigation interactivity techniques. The decision quality of subjects that used a parallel navigation technique was significantly greater than that of those that used a sequential navigation interactivity technique. The results regarding the efficacy of image abstraction and transition effects varied by task. For one task, decision quality was significantly greater for subjects that used realistic as opposed to abstract images, but decision quality did not vary by transition effect. For the other task, decision quality was significantly greater for subjects that used gradual as compared to abrupt transition, but image abstraction had no effect on decision quality.     

扩大内需政策对城乡经济协调发展的作用——基于城乡投入产出模型

本文基于自行编制的中国城乡投入产出表,利用生产诱发系数、诱发依赖系数和需求影响报酬模型,定量分析了扩大内需政策对城乡经济协调发展的作用。具体测算了4万亿元投资和家电下乡补贴政策对社会经济和城乡协调发展的影响以及缓解外需下滑的效果。计算结果显示:4万亿元投资和家电下乡等扩大内需政策可诱发全社会总产值增加额101251亿元,相当于2008年社会总产值的11.8%;4万亿元投资对城镇工业的诱发额相当于2008年工业总产值的14%。家电下乡对家电制造及相关行业的诱发额相当于2008年家电制造业产值的41%。4万亿元投资和2009年的家电下乡补贴对社会总产值诱发额比2009年上半年出口减少导致社会总产值的损失高76847亿元;4万亿元投资和家电下乡两项措施合计使城镇和农村居民人均收入分别增加1879元和786元,相当于2008年城镇居民人均收入的11.8%和农村居民人均收入的16.8%。但是,4万亿元投资和家电下乡对城镇劳动者报酬的诱发效果大于对农村劳动者报酬的诱发效果,对促进城乡居民收入均衡发展,来体现显著的促进作用。     

The Effect of Team Leader Characteristics on Learning,Knowledge Application,and Performance of Cross‐Functional New Product Development Teams

This study examines how leadership characteristics in new product development teams affect the learning, knowledge application, and subsequently the performance of these teams. Using data from a study of 229 members from 52 high‐tech new product projects, we empirically demonstrate that team learning has a strong positive effect on the innovativeness and speed to market of the new products. Moreover, a democratic leadership style, initiation of goal structure by the team leader, and his or her position within the organization were positively related to team learning. Managerial implications of these results are discussed.     

Organizational Integration for Product Development: The Effects on Glitches,On‐Time Execution of Engineering Change Orders,and Market Success

Deviations from requirements during the product development process can be considered as glitches. Fixing glitches, or problems, during the product development process consumes valuable resources, which may adversely affect product development time and hamper the firm's goal to pursue a first‐mover advantage. It is posited that an integrated organizational response can diminish incidences of glitches and improve the ability of the firm to respond to engineering changes, subsequently leading to improved market success. This organizational response frequently includes heavyweight product development managers who are seen as essential catalysts for internal integration. Though internal integration is vital, it is equally important to integrate with customers and suppliers alike because such network partners can provide access to information, knowledge, and unique and complementary resources that are otherwise unavailable to the firm. Findings, which are based on a sample of 191 product development projects in the automotive industry, suggest that some integration routines have a positive impact on product development outcomes and market success, while other routines can in fact hamper the collective effort.