山东省人口老龄化空间分异及其形成机制研究

研究人口老龄化的区域差异及解释其成因,对合理制定人口发展战略具有重要意义。本文从时空角度探讨山东省人口老龄化进程,构造模型分析老龄化空间分异变动的制约因素,采用两种分布比较方法定量研究各制约因素的影响程度,最终揭示老龄化程度区域差异扩大的动力机制。结果表明,山东省老年人口比重出现极化现象的主要原因在于人口自身的惯性作用,包括人口年龄结构和出生率的共同作用,此外还受到经济社会诸多因素的制约。     

中国创新创业能力的空间分异与收敛研究

文章利用2000～2019年城市创新创业能力指数,采用Dagum基尼系数及其分解方法对八大综合经济区创新创业能力的地区差距进行分解,并采用变异系数法揭示σ收敛特征,构建空间动态面板模型对绝对β收敛和条件β收敛进行检验。研究发现:(1)2000～2019年中国八大综合经济区创新创业能力的总体地区差距逐渐下降,这说明创新创业能力的区域差异呈逐渐缩小趋势,区域间差异是导致创新创业能力差异的主要来源。(2)大西北经济区内部创新创业能力的差异最大;东部沿海经济区内部创新创业能力的区域差异最小。(3)空间溢出效应在创新创业能力提升过程中发挥重要作用,空间因素的引入能有效提高创新创业能力向更高水平转移的概率。(4)北部沿海、东部沿海、黄河中游、长江中游、大西南、大西北综合经济区创新创业能力呈σ收敛趋势,而东北经济区和南部沿海经济区不存在σ收敛趋势,创新创业能力存在显著的绝对β收敛和条件β收敛特征。     

关中-天水经济区人口空间分异研究

人口空间分异可充分反映区域资源禀赋差异和市场自由竞争结果.采用Moran's Ⅰ指数、空间分异指数、空间插值等方法,研究了关中城市群人口空间分异格局.研究发现关天经济区的中心城市及次核心城市劳动人口聚集,文化程度高且劳动报酬高,但少子化问题非常突出;农村等较不发达地区仍具有温和的子女数量和性别偏好,且农村地区的贫困老龄化特征非常明显.家庭成员在收入和公共服务差异等推拉力作用下,基于迁移成本和预期收益作出迁移决策,最终导致了经济区内能力依存的迁移行为和人口空间分异的加剧.研究认为应密切关注大城市超少子化现象和农村贫困老龄化现象,大城市政府应研究和预案人口快速集聚可能带来的潜在经济风险,向被动承担人口负外部性的农村和中小城镇以合理的转移支付.     

多维劳动力市场分割、大学生就业流动与就业空间拓展

遵循多维劳动力市场分割逻辑,面对我国大学生就业流动现实,从政府体制创新、高校突出创业教育、社会助推创业、就业信息共享平台打造、多元机制提升就业整合力等方面拓展大学生就业空间.     

中国劳动力市场发展对人力资本投资的影响分析

改革开放以来,我国劳动力市场的培育和发展立足于促进劳动力流动,片面地强调通过外部劳动力市场调节劳动力资源的配置,对高流动性劳动力市场给人力资本投资带来的负面影响重视不足,在人力资本投资模式尚不完善的情况下,导致了人力资本投资水平的普遍下降。建议重视内部劳动力市场对人力资本投资的促进作用,在市场经济条件下,鼓励企业和劳动力建立较稳定的雇佣关系。     

中国大学毕业生劳动力市场中的同群效应

随着高校毕业生就业制度的改革和高等教育规模的扩大,大量的大学毕业生进入了劳动力市场,这些大学毕业生在劳动力市场的表现是一个值得关注的问题。针对目前国内关于大学生就业等问题的实证文章较少的现状,文章使用2007年中国大学毕业生就业与能力年度调查数据,利用空间计量经济学的方法研究我国大学毕业生劳动力市场中的同群效应。研究的结果发现,在我国大学毕业生劳动力市场中存在着显著的、正向的同群效应,并证实了这种同群效应一部分可由大学生在校期间的各种知识和能力培养的相互影响所解释。     

市场转型背景下南京市的住房分异

文章依托2005年南京市的千户调查数据,检验不同性质、不同特征家庭的住房分异。文章指出,2000年以来南京市住房的社会分异现象十分显著,计划经济体制的惯性作用仍然存在,某些制度性因素弱化的同时,户口、单位等制度性因素的作用持续而重要;市场因素对于住房分异的决定作用同样显著,主要体现在不同受教育程度、不同收入群体之间的住房差别。需要注意的是,不同属性群体之间的住房差异十分明显,而相同属性群体内部的住房差异更为显著,这一现象需要在未来的研究中加以关注。     

经济发展与劳动力迁徙的空间实证研究

有关劳动力迁移的研究及相关政策的制定与执行,向来为世界各国所重视,各国都希望通过乡村发展等措施来缓和乡村人口移入城市,或是把大城市人口分散到郊区或偏远地区,以求区域间的均衡发展。本文用空间计量经济学方法,分析2000年中国各县劳动力迁徙情况,研究发现迁入地经济越发达,人民生活水平越高,工业越发达,未来发展潜力越大,吸引的外来劳动力也越多。研究还表明,中国劳动力迁徙具有显著的空间集聚效应,采用空间误差回归模型要明显优于OLS回归模型。     

改革开放后中国经济增长、劳动市场变化及未来展望

改革开放后 ,中国实现了持续的经济增长 ,并逐渐形成了劳动市场。 2 0多年来的高速经济增长 ,解决了众多劳动就业问题 ,但因过去持续几十年的劳动力人口增长 ,未来劳动市场仍将面临供需矛盾和强大的就业压力。通过对劳动力供给和需求的预测 ,展望未来中国劳动力市场     

关于中国富余劳动力的思考

富余劳动力主要包括农村剩余劳动力和城市下岗、失业人口两大部分。在中国经济总量不断上升的同时,就业问题已是困扰中国长远发展的难题。之所以产生GDP增长与失业率上升相伴的喜忧参半的结果,主要原因是:第一,我国人口基数过大,增长过快,是富余劳动力的源泉。第二,经济体制是富余劳动力存在的保障。     

Time series analysis of fertility and female labor market behavior

Cointegration methods are employed to investigate relations among total fertility, female wages, labor force participation, educational attainment, and male relative cohort size. Two long run relations among the series are found, and these are identified as a fertility and a labor supply equation. All covariates enter into these relations with significant coefficients and theoretically plausible signs. Innovation analysis shows that both fertility and female labor force participation respond to changes in relative cohort size in directions consistent with the Easterlin hypothesis. Female labor force participation responds significantly to fertility shocks, but reverse effects are insignificant.All correspondence to Robert McNown. The authors wish to thank Cristobal Ridao-Cano, Kenneth Land, Alessandro Cigno, and an anonymous referee for comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

改革开放以来我国对外劳务输出发展研究

中国正在努力完成从人口大国到人力资源大国的转变,并实施"走出去"战略。在这一背景之下,积极参与国际劳务市场,促进我国的人力资源开发,将具有重要的现实意义。积极开展对外劳务合作,将会促使我国劳动力资源更加有效地参与国际劳务市场。为了更好地开展对外劳务输出,需要认真研究相关各国劳动力资源的未来变化趋势,及时掌握各国劳动力市场供需情况、有关劳务政策新动向以及市场变化情况等。这样才能更好地制定劳务输出计划,扩大劳务输出规模。在增加劳务输出数量的同时,还需要不断提高劳务人员的综合素质。     

Uneven dynamics and regional disparity of multidimensional poverty in China

Qualifying the official minimum of “Two no worries and three guarantees” (certainty of food and clothing, guarantees of compulsory education, basic medical care, and housing) is essential to evaluate the targeted poverty alleviation program since 2013 in China. Using the poverty monitoring dataset and the multidimensional poverty indicator system, the uneven dynamics and regional disparity of multidimensional poverty and its driving factors in poverty-stricken areas in China during 2014–2018 are explored in this paper. The incidence rate of multidimensional poverty was reduced by 61.72%, and the poverty reduction rate within the six dimensions ranged from 52.29 to 76.36%. Multidimensional poverty and its six dimensions displayed narrowing regional disparity. Impoverished and moderately poor areas shrank, whereas low-poverty areas expanded. All 22 provinces have become low-poverty areas in 2018. The contribution of each dimension to multidimensional poverty varies for different types at different stages. Income and expenditure contribute the most to poverty status, followed by transportation, housing conditions, education, communication, and medical care and health. The contribution of each indicator among different dimensions varied with different trends from 2014 to2018. This paper helps incorporate the official minimums of “Two no worries and three guarantees” into a more operational evaluation system to promote sustainable policies for governments at all levels by 2020 and beyond, as well as provide valuable references for poverty alleviation in other developing countries worldwide.

     

Internal labor markets and the effects of structural change: Job mobility in Korean labor markets between 1998 and 2000

This study examines job mobility in Korean labor markets since the 1997 economic crisis. The rising job mobility in Korea is analyzed by focusing on structural change in labor markets. Using the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study and discrete-time event history analysis, I estimate the job-stabilizing effects of internal labor markets and the effects of structural change on job mobility. The major findings are as follows: First, I found that internal labor markets were weakening between 1998 and 2000. Second, the job-stabilizing effects of internal labor markets on job mobility diminished between 1998 and 2000. Finally, the magnitude of the effects of internal labor markets on job mobility was contingent on the level of structural change. The effect of internal labor markets on job mobility was stronger in turbulent or contracting industries. This effect, however, also became weaker over time. The implications for Korean labor markets are discussed.     

三元劳动力市场分割与“新失业群体”失业——基于辽宁的调查

本文主要从辽宁省基本社会特质入手,从制度的角度展开“新失业群体”存在的根源分析。主要是从东北老工业基地特有的三元劳动力市场分割的视角来分析“新失业群体”何以在辽宁省特别突出。即由于劳动力市场三元分割,使得“新失业群体”在不同劳动力市场之间的职业流动发生障碍,导致了“新失业群体”的失业。     

The dynamics of immigrant welfare and labor market behavior

This paper analyzes transitions into and out of social assistance, unemployment, and employment. We estimate a dynamic multinomial logit model, controlling for endogenous initial condition and unobserved heterogeneity, using a large representative Swedish panel data set. The empirical results suggest that particularly refugee immigrants display a greater degree of “structural” state dependence than natives. The high welfare participation rates among refugee immigrants may be due to the existence of a “welfare trap”, while participation among natives and non-refugee immigrants is largely due to permanent unobserved characteristics. These results suggest that welfare reforms may have differential effects on refugee immigrants and natives.

中国现阶段乡-城劳动力迁移特点分析

现阶段中国乡—城迁移既不同于发达国家早期的乡—城迁移,也与当前其他发展中国家迁移有明显的区别。在迁移的形式、规模及质量等方面都显示出明显的中国特色     

Imperfect goods and labor markets, and the union wage gap

Existing theoretical literature fails to explain satisfactorily the differences between the pay of workers who are covered by collective agreements and others who are not. This study aims at providing a model framework that is amenable to an analysis of this issue. Our general-equilibrium approach integrates a dual labor market and a two-sector product market. The results suggest that the so-called “union wage gap” is largely determined by the degree of centralization of the bargains and, to a somewhat lesser extent, by the expenditure share of the unionized sector's goods.