Public expenditures,population aging and economic dependency in Canada, 1921–2021

The slowing population growth and consequent aging of the population in Canada and elsewhere have raised questions of the ability of such populations to provide support to their non-working or dependent, particularly their aged, members. Previous discussions have often been focussed on demographic measures of dependency, but more recent research has shown that, in North American society, the per capita costs of providing public programmes to an elderly member are between two and three times higher than those to a younger member of society. However, these measures have made no attempt to take into account changing labour market conditions. This paper develops measures of dependency to incorporate these latter effects. Calculations with Canadian data (1921–2021) show that demographic and economic dependency in Canada are currently at historically low levels. The numerical results also suggest that the effects of the general increases in labour force participation rates, that have characterized the past two decades, have more than offset the effects of the general increases in unemployment rates, and that future increases in participation rates and, perhaps, decreases in unemployment rates could provide a significant alleviation of the impacts of population aging on government expenditures in the years ahead.     

Seasonal host alternation by the andromeda lace bug,Stephanitis takeyai (Heteroptera: Tingidae) between its two main host-plant species

I studied the seasonal occurrence of the andromeda lace bug,Stephanitis takeyai, on its two main host-plant species. In a secondary forest in Kyoto, this bug altered its hosts seasonally, i.e., from an evergreen shrub,Pieris japonica, in winter to a deciduous shrub,Lyonia elliptica, in summer. In contrast, in Nara park where fewL. elliptica were available, the bug exploited onlyP. japonica. Thus, seasonal host alternation by this bug is not obligate. A comparison of adult longevity and fecundity on the two host-plant species demonstrated the higher quality ofL. elliptica as a food resource. Corresponding to this difference in host quality, there was a dramatic difference in the seasonal population growth in the two study sites. In Nara, the population size at the beginning of the 2nd generation was almost the same as in the overwintered generation, whereas in Kyoto the population size in the 2nd generation was approximately one hundred times as large as in the overwintered generation. Thus seasonal host alternation is adaptive for the bug. In a previous study, I reported that overwintering as eggs in living leaves of their hosts is likely to be common among all the related species of this bug. Thus, this trait can be considered to be a phylogenetic constraint to the group. I speculate that host alternation by this bug has been derived because it is more adaptive from autoecy on an evergreen plant, similar to the pattern currently found in Nara, and that this bug can not only exploit deciduous host due to a phylogenetic constraint.     

On age distribution of population,government expenditure and fiscal federalism

In this paper I build a simple model to analyze the consequences that population growth imposes on the relative needs of expenditure of governments in a fiscal federalism setup. I assume, first, that some government expenditure items can be classified according to the age of their recipient individuals and, second, that different levels of government are usually assigned different expenditure programs. The implication is that, for an initially given level of effective public good provision, changes in the size of population as well as in its age structure will influence the composition of public expenditure for different layers of administration in a different manner.I would like to thank Jordi Caballé, Ángel de la Fuente, Javier Gardeazabal, Federico Grafe, Juan Urrutia and Jesús Vázquez for their valuable comments and suggestions. Two anonymous referees helped improve the initial version. Remaining errors and shortcomings are my own responsibility. Financial support from UPV 035.321-HA090/92 and UPV 035.321-HA130/93 is gratefully acknowledged.     

Social security policy with public debt in an aging economy

This paper analyzes a social security policy with public debt in an overlapping generations growth model. In particular, the paper considers a situation in which population aging causes a heavy burden of social security payments where public debt is issued by the government to finance the payment. In the model presented below, an economy with an aging population may achieve two dynamically inefficient equilibria. Under certain conditions, the effects of pension reform and population aging on capital accumulation are entirely different between the two equilibria. Received: 23 July 2001/Accepted: 22 August 2002 I am deeply grateful to an anonymous referee and Professor A. Cigno, the Editor of this journal, for their valuable comments and suggestions. I am also grateful to Kazuyo Tanimoto and Kiheiji Nishida for their research assistance. Any remaining errors are my own. The research reported here was conducted as part of a larger study, the “Project on Intergenerational Equity” at the Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. Financial support from Kani Hoken Bunka Zaidan is also gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

The population dynamics of the voleClethrionomys rufocanus in Hokkaido, Japan

Population dynamics of the gray sided-vole,Clethrionomys rufocanus, in Hokkaido, Japan were described on the basis of 225 time series (being from 12 to 31 years long); 194 of the time series have a length of 23 years or longer. The time series were classified into 11 groups according to geographic proximity and topographic characteristics of the island of Hokkaido. Mean abundance varied among populations from 1.07 to 21.07 individuals per 150 trap-nights. The index of variability for population fluctuation (s-index) ranged from 0.204 to 0.629. Another index for population variability (amplitude on log-10 scale) ranged from 0.811 to 2.743. Mean abundance and variability of populations were higher in the more northern and eastern regions of the island. Most populations, except for the southernmost populations, exhibited significant direct density-dependence in population growth. Detection rate for delayed density-dependence varied among groups from 0% to 22.6%. Both direct and delayed density-dependence tended to be stronger in the more northern and eastern populations. The proportion of cyclic populations was higher in the northern-eastern areas than that in the southern-western areas. There was a clear gradient from the asynchronous populations in southwest, to the highly synchronized populations in the northeast.     

Population and pavement: population growth and land development in Israel

This research examines land use change in Israel––an intriguing but understudied setting with regard to population–environment dynamics. While Israel is fairly unique with regard to its combined high levels of economic prosperity and high population growth, this case study has relevance for developed countries and regions (like the south and southwest regions of the USA) which must balance population growth and urban development with open space conservation for ecosystem services and biological diversity. The population–land development relationship is investigated during the period from 1961 to 1995 at three spatial scales: national, regional (six districts), and local (40 localities). There is a positive correlation between population growth and land development rates at the national scale, and while remaining positive, the strength of the relationship varies greatly at regional and local scales. The variation in population–land use dynamics across scales is used to garner insight as to the importance of geography, policy and historical settlement patterns.     

Natural mortality at different population densities of a pine shoot moth,Evetria cristata

Summary A field population ofEvetria cristata was studied in 10 plots in 1962 and in 6 plots in 1963. These plots were divided into 2 or 3 groups of different population levels of the shoot moth in respective years. The survival of the insect was then analysed in these different groups of plots. The survival rate ofE. cristata from eggs to adults in the first generation was found always higher in the group with low population density, which indicates the existence of some factors that affect the population more severely when the insect is more abundant.Lissonota evetriae andPediobius sp. seemed to have killed more proportion of the hosts where the shoot moth density was high. However, the total effect of the all natural enemies was not always great in the plots with high density of the moth. The survival of the second generation of the moth in 1963 was observed to be much higher at any population level than in the other generations.     

Bridewealth and Birth Control: Low Fertility in the Indonesian Archipelago, 1500–1900

Before the onset of the present demographic transition, population growth in Indonesia had reached unprecedentedly high levels. This article demonstrates that such high levels were a recent phenomenon. Prior to 1900 rates of natural population increase were low to very low in most areas in Indonesia. This runs counter to expectations based on Hajnal's “Eastern marriage pattern,” which could imply high growth levels in extended family areas, such as most Indonesian regions outside Java in the past. Usually, the low population growth rates in Southeast Asia are attributed to high mortality owing to high levels of violent conflict. It is argued that other factors contributing to such high levels of mortality should receive more attention. In this article it is also argued that low fertility rates, too, played a role in generating low rates of natural increase. The article discusses the influence of marriage patterns, household structure, methods of birth control, adoption, and slavery on fertility.     

The outbreak mechanisms of the green rice leafhopper,Nephotettix cincticeps Uhler, in northern Japan

Intraspecific regulatory processes keep the population ofNephotettix cincticeps stable at a low density in southern Japan. In northern Japan, however, the yearly population density of the insect fluctuates violently, and large outbreaks occasionally take place. To clarify the difference in the population dynamics between the two regions, we analyzed light-trap and sweep-net sampling records from prefectural and national agricultural experimental stations. The survival rate of the overwintering population decreased with increases in the period of continuous snow cover (PCSC) in the north, and initial population densities in the years of long PCSC were too low for populations to reach equilibrium density by the end of the active breeding season. This made yearly population fluctuations in the north much larger than in the south. The equilibrium density in the north was higher than in the south. The higher equilibrium density presumably permits the higher population density and larger yearly population fluctuations in the north. A major factor responsible for the difference in equilibrium densities between the two regions is the difference in heading dates of the host plant (rice). Qualitative differences among rice plant varieties, and among biotypes ofN. cincticeps, may also be important.     

Population growth,age structure,and age-specific productivity

Motivated by empirical evidence that fluctuations in age structure affect relative wages across age groups, this paper asks whether there is a steady-state age distribution that maximizes the lifetime wages of a representative worker. The paper proves the surprising result that in a pure labor economy with any constant returns technology, a uniform age distribution minimizes lifetime wages. Skewed age distributions, generated by either positive or negative population growth rates, generate unambiguously higher lifetime wages than a stationary population, in spite of possible reductions in per capita output in every period. The presence of non-labor factors complicates, but does not necessarily reverse, this result. The paper relates the beneficial effects of higher rates of population growth on lifetime wages in a pure labor economy with imperfect substitutability across age groups to the benefits of population growth that appear in overlapping-generation consumption loan models with intergenerational transfers.A previous version of this paper was presented at the Economic Demography Workshop at the 1988 meetings of the Population Association of America. Helpful comments from Mark Berger, Theodore Bergstrom, Ronald Lee, Hal Varian, and Robert Willis are acknowledged.     

Learning-by-doing,population pressure,and the theory of demographic transition

The present paper discusses the long-run effects of two interdependent relations between economic and population growth. According to a frequently used formulation of the population-push hypothesis, learning-by-doing effects in production lead to increasing returns to scale and, therefore, to a positive correlation between economic and population growth. In accordance to the theory of demographic transition the population growth rate initially increases with rising income levels and then declines. Regarding this relationship, the existence and stability of a low-income equilibrium and a high-income equilibrium will be shown in a neoclassical growth model. Under plausible conditions a demo-economic transition from the first to the second steady-state takes place. The result yields a meaningful interpretation of the population-push hypothesis, which is consistent with the empirical findings on the correlation between economic and population growth. Received March 8, 1996 / Accepted October 24, 1996     

Farm Dependence and Population Change in China

The existing literature has documented a negative association between farm dependence and population change in Western countries. Theories have also been proposed to explain such a negative association. Whether prior findings based on the western social context can be generalized to less developed countries, such as China, has largely eluded researchers. Using five waves of Chinese Census data and data from China’s Statistical Yearbooks, I investigate the dynamics between farm dependence and population change, particularly, in counties of Chinese provinces that are highly dependent on farms. I find that after controlling for mechanization, nonfarm industries and the human ecological factors that are rooted in the theoretical explanations of rural population change, high farm dependence does not necessarily lead to a lower population growth. The results imply that the existing theories on farm dependence and population change may need to be modified when being applied to less developed regions. The regional variation approach is proposed to understand population change in high-farm-dependent areas of China.     

Timing,togetherness and time windfalls

With appropriate data the analysis of time use, labor supply and leisure can move beyond the standard questions of wage and income elasticities of hours supplied. I present four examples: 1) American data from 1973 through 1997 show that the amount of evening and night work in the U.S. has decreased. 2) The same data demonstrate that workers whose relative earnings increase experience a relative diminution of the burden of work at unpleasant times. 3) U.S. data for the 1970s and 1990s demonstrate that spouses' work schedules are more synchronized than would occur randomly; synchrony among working spouses diminished after the 1970s; and the full-income elasticity of demand for it was higher among wives than among husbands in the 1970s but equal in the 1990s. 4) Dutch time-budget data for 1990 show that the overwhelming majority of the windfall hour that occurred when standard time resumed was used for extra sleep. Received: 6 July 2000/Accepted: 20 January 2001 Daniel S. Hamermesh is Edward Everett Hale Centennial Professor, University of Texas at Austin; research associate, National Bureau of Economic Research, and Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit. I thank the National Science Foundation for support under Grants SBR-9422429 and SES-9904699, and two anonymous referees, Gerard Pfann, the late Lee Lillard, Gerald Oettinger, Steve Trejo and participants at the ESPE Conference and at seminars at the University of Bristol and Warwick University for helpful comments. Responsible editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann.     

From stagnation to growth: Revisiting three historical regimes

This paper explores the role of mortality in the long transition from Malthusian stagnation to sustained economic growth. An endogenous child mortality rate that varies inversely with parents standard of living is added to the framework in Galor and Weil (AER 2000). In our version of the model, the transition from stagnation to growth, triggered by an exogenous shock to technology, comprises a mortality revolution succeeded by a demographic transition.This paper has benefitted from discussions with and suggestions made by KarlGunnar Persson, Christian Schultz, and, particularly, Christian Groth at the University of Copenhagen. I gratefully acknowledge the insightful criticisms of two anonymous referees, and I thank Paula Madsen for English proof-reading. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

Migration stock and the issue of competing and complementary flows in United States interstate migration

The purpose of this paper is to study the determinants of interstate migration in the United States from 1965–1970 when a new change in direction of migration has started, and to examine the flow creation or flow diversion that results from migration to some appealing regions. Several related variables have been selected and tested for gross interstate migration flows. The results show that overall both push and pull factors have not been important. People from higher income regions migrate more, and migrants tend to move to states with higher incomes and larger population. Distance was not found to act as a significant deterrence to migration, whereas population density of origin and destination was significant. Previous migration was found to have a very strong effect on migration. The results of the study also suggested that there has been a major change in the location of growth areas in the United States during 1955–1970.The study of concurrent flow showed that the states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida combined have positively influenced migratory flow between origin and destination states. Empirical results, however, also showed that California did not have flow creation or flow diversion effects on interstate migration.This research was supported partly through Organized Research Funds of The University of Texas at Arlington.     

Future Trends In World Population Growth

Because world population growth is marked by differing trends in the more developed and developing regions, the successful solution of future social and demographic problems will depend, in all likelihood, on whether population growth is considered in isolation or as a problem which is inextricably interwoven with other leading features of social and economic development.Both total population growth and changing age structure produce new economic and social problems, and within both the more developed and the developing regions, there are sub-areas in various stages of development. First, together with the total estimated increase in working-age population, there will be substantial differences in age structure. Although the proportion of world population of dependent age is expected to go down, up to 1980its level will be higher than in 1960, owingto an upward tendency in developing regions, where the "heavy youth dependency" is so extraordinarily high that even in 1980 there will be about ten children to every old person, and at the end of the century, more than seven. It is estimated that in the more developed regions there will be twenty-five to every one-hundred old persons in 1980, and twenty-two in the year 2000. This shows that heavy old-age dependency will have arisen in these regions. Second, the dependency ratio will probably grow, moreover, as a consequence of the degree of economic activity and variation. Although there will bea decrease in the proportion of dependent children, these will still constitute over one-half of the dependents in all areas. These forecasts seem to indicate that the changing structure of dependency and the increase in its total volume may be expected to create problems, particularly in the developing regions. Third, working life tends to become longer as a result of declining mortality, and this, combined with rising labor-force replacement levels, will result in an increased total labor supply.While such an expansion of world population obviously emphasizes the quantitative aspect of population problems, structural and qualitative aspects seem to be of equal importance. But these aspects are largely overshadowed by the growth problem, for growing numbers of people have more and more needs: the inflow of people into schools, into the labor market, and into towns and cities will be apparently unprecedented.In recent years circumstances have not favored the development of conditions needed for rapid change in reproductive behavior in the developing regions. The mobilization of resources and the adaption of different types of society in view of the future growth of total population-with emphasis on the less-developed regions-will be one of the most important challenges to mankind's ability to meet its own needs.The main value of the calculations of various characteristics of future population growth discussed in this paper is to show "in the light of contemporary information" future trends and some relationships of world population of world population growth to economic and social development.     

How a trend towards a stationary population affects consumer demand

Abstract During the great depression of the 1930seconomists in both the United States and Europe tried to analyse the economic consequences of declining rates of population growth. Not only were birth rates in many industrial countries at the lowest levels ever, but they coincided with high rates of unemployment. Of the many economists who held that demographic trends were partly responsible for the adverse economic conditions, a prominent example was John Maynard Keynes. According to his so-called stagnation thesis, population growth stimulates investment demand in two ways: more people need more goods and services and, hence, more investment in factories and machinery; and with population growing, businessmen are more likely to regard their investment misallocations as less serious than when the growth is slow or nil.(1)A minority of writers were more optimistic about the economic consequences of slower rates of population growth. For example, Thompson argued that with a lower ratio of consumers to producers the population would enjoy a higher standard of living and the education of children should improve.(2).     

Assessing the validity of intercensal comparisons of indigenous Australians, 1986–96

The credibility of analysis of 1996 Census data on indigenous Australians hinges on who the people are who have changed their indigenous identification between the last two censuses. The number of people who identify as indigenous in either the Post-Enumeration Survey or the census is more stable than theprima facie evidence indicates. Also, the continuing low levels of education among the indigenous population means that self-identification signifies that one is, more than likely, disadvantaged. While it is difficult to say with absolute certainty that census statistics accurately reflect the economic status of the indigenous population, they are sufficiently credible to be taken at face value.     

Population policy and individual choice

The general equilibrium implications of endogenous fertility for several social issues of population policy are examined. Laissez faire is found to lead to Pareto optimality within generations even in the presence of public goods and Malthusian diminishing returns. On the other hand, bequests emerge as a major potential source of Pareto inefficiency when parents care about the number and welfare of their offspring. Also considered are questions of intergenerational justice and equity using an intergenerational social welfare function. It is shown that maximizing the sum of utilities always leads to a larger population than maximizing per capita utility, but that the laissez-faire solution may lie outside the interval bounded by the two criteria.Invited Lecture at the First Annual Conference of the European Society for Population Economics, Rotterdam, 18–19 September 1987In preparing this paper, I have drawn heavily on joint work with Assaf Razin and Efraim Sadka, both of Tel-Aviv University, and on our book, Household and economy: Welfare economics of endogeneous fertility (Academic Press, New York 1987). I am indebted to two anonymous referees for helpful comments     

近50年来世界人口期望寿命的演变轨迹

进入21世纪以来,全球人口已经突破60亿,但是人口增长速度明显减慢。许多国家已经完成了人口转变,其总和生育率在更替水平以下。与此同时,人口健康状况得到明显改善,死亡水平显著降低,期望寿命在不断提高。本文利用联合国人口司发布的192个国家人口死亡信息,系统分析了世界人口平均期望寿命在过去50年里的演变态势、区域差异以及演变模式。结果显示世界人口期望寿命经历了半个多世纪的持续增长,有50%以上的人口或国家平均期望寿命达到了70岁。演变轨迹呈多样化的发展模式,区域发展不平衡。欠发达地区总体上较发达地区增幅大,人口比重上升幅度也很显著。人均期望寿命增幅最大的是亚洲国家,非洲国家与世界不同步,而且区域内差异较大。