Maximum likelihood computation for fitting semiparametric mixture models

Three general algorithms that use different strategies are proposed for computing the maximum likelihood estimate of a semiparametric mixture model. They seek to maximize the likelihood function by, respectively, alternating the parameters, profiling the likelihood and modifying the support set. All three algorithms make a direct use of the recently proposed fast and stable constrained Newton method for computing the nonparametric maximum likelihood of a mixing distribution and employ additionally an optimization algorithm for unconstrained problems. The performance of the algorithms is numerically investigated and compared for solving the Neyman-Scott problem, overcoming overdispersion in logistic regression models and fitting two-level mixed effects logistic regression models. Satisfactory results have been obtained.     

A fast algorithm for univariate log‐concave density estimation

A new fast algorithm for computing the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate of a univariate log‐concave density is proposed and studied. It is an extension of the constrained Newton method for nonparametric mixture estimation. In each iteration, the newly extended algorithm includes, if necessary, new knots that are located via a special directional derivative function. The algorithm renews the changes of slope at all knots via a quadratically convergent method and removes the knots at which the changes of slope become zero. Theoretically, the characterisation of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate is studied and the algorithm is guaranteed to converge to the unique maximum likelihood estimate. Numerical studies show that it outperforms other algorithms that are available in the literature. Applications to some real‐world financial data are also given.     

Using BBPSO Algorithm to Estimate the Weibull Parameters with Censored Data

This article proposes the maximum likelihood estimates based on bare bones particle swarm optimization (BBPSO) algorithm for estimating the parameters of Weibull distribution with censored data, which is widely used in lifetime data analysis. This approach can produce more accuracy of the parameter estimation for the Weibull distribution. Additionally, the confidence intervals for the estimators are obtained. The simulation results show that the BB PSO algorithm outperforms the Newton–Raphson method in most cases in terms of bias, root mean square of errors, and coverage rate. Two examples are used to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach. The results show that the maximum likelihood estimates via BBPSO algorithm perform well for estimating the Weibull parameters with censored data.     

An alternative algorithm of the empirical likelihood estimation for the parameter of a linear regression model

ABSTRACT

Empirical likelihood (EL) is a nonparametric method based on observations. EL method is defined as a constrained optimization problem. The solution of this constrained optimization problem is carried on using duality approach. In this study, we propose an alternative algorithm to solve this constrained optimization problem. The new algorithm is based on a newton-type algorithm for Lagrange multipliers for the constrained optimization problem. We provide a simulation study and a real data example to compare the performance of the proposed algorithm with the classical algorithm. Simulation and the real data results show that the performance of the proposed algorithm is comparable with the performance of the existing algorithm in terms of efficiencies and cpu-times.     

A profile likelihood method for normal mixture with unequal variance

It is well known that the normal mixture with unequal variance has unbounded likelihood and thus the corresponding global maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is undefined. One of the commonly used solutions is to put a constraint on the parameter space so that the likelihood is bounded and then one can run the EM algorithm on this constrained parameter space to find the constrained global MLE. However, choosing the constraint parameter is a difficult issue and in many cases different choices may give different constrained global MLE. In this article, we propose a profile log likelihood method and a graphical way to find the maximum interior mode. Based on our proposed method, we can also see how the constraint parameter, used in the constrained EM algorithm, affects the constrained global MLE. Using two simulation examples and a real data application, we demonstrate the success of our new method in solving the unboundness of the mixture likelihood and locating the maximum interior mode.     

Nonparametric maximum likelihood computation of a <Emphasis Type="Italic">U</Emphasis>-shaped hazard function

A new algorithm is presented and studied in this paper for fast computation of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate of a U-shaped hazard function. It successfully overcomes a difficulty when computing a U-shaped hazard function, which is only properly defined by knowing its anti-mode, and the anti-mode itself has to be found during the computation. Specifically, the new algorithm maintains the constant hazard segment, regardless of its length being zero or positive. The length varies naturally, according to what mass values are allocated to their associated knots after each updating. Being an appropriate extension of the constrained Newton method, the new algorithm also inherits its advantage of fast convergence, as demonstrated by some real-world data examples. The algorithm works not only for exact observations, but also for purely interval-censored data, and for data mixed with exact and interval-censored observations.     

Constrained estimation and likelihood intervals for censored data

The authors propose a reduction technique and versions of the EM algorithm and the vertex exchange method to perform constrained nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation of the cumulative distribution function given interval censored data. The constrained vertex exchange method can be used in practice to produce likelihood intervals for the cumulative distribution function. In particular, the authors show how to produce a confidence interval with known asymptotic coverage for the survival function given current status data.     

Partially projected gradient algorithms for computing nonparametric maximum likelihood estimates of mixing distributions

There exist primarily three different types of algorithms for computing nonparametric maximum likelihood estimates (NPMLEs) of mixing distributions in the literature, which are the EM-type algorithms, the vertex direction algorithms such as VDM and VEM, and the algorithms based on general constrained optimization techniques such as the projected gradient method. It is known that the projected gradient algorithm may run into stagnation during iterations. When a stagnation occurs, VDM steps need to be added. We argue that the abrupt switch to VDM steps can significantly reduce the efficiency of the projected gradient algorithm, and is usually unnecessary. In this paper, we define a group of partially projected directions, which can be regarded as hybrids of ordinary projected gradient directions and VDM directions. Based on these directions, four new algorithms are proposed for computing NPMLEs of mixing distributions. The properties of the algorithms are discussed and their convergence is proved. Extensive numerical simulations show that the new algorithms outperform the existing methods, especially when a NPMLE has a large number of support points or when high accuracy is required.     

On the estimation of the extreme value and normal distribution parameters based on progressive type-II hybrid-censored data

A progressive hybrid censoring scheme is a mixture of type-I and type-II progressive censoring schemes. In this paper, we mainly consider the analysis of progressive type-II hybrid-censored data when the lifetime distribution of the individual item is the normal and extreme value distributions. Since the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of these parameters cannot be obtained in the closed form, we propose to use the expectation and maximization (EM) algorithm to compute the MLEs. Also, the Newton–Raphson method is used to estimate the model parameters. The asymptotic variance–covariance matrix of the MLEs under EM framework is obtained by Fisher information matrix using the missing information and asymptotic confidence intervals for the parameters are then constructed. This study will end up with comparing the two methods of estimation and the asymptotic confidence intervals of coverage probabilities corresponding to the missing information principle and the observed information matrix through a simulation study, illustrated examples and real data analysis.     

An economical acceptance–rejection algorithm for uniform random variate generation over constrained simplexes

This paper develops an algorithm for uniform random generation over a constrained simplex, which is the intersection of a standard simplex and a given set. Uniform sampling from constrained simplexes has numerous applications in different fields, such as portfolio optimization, stochastic multi-criteria decision analysis, experimental design with mixtures and decision problems involving discrete joint distributions with imprecise probabilities. The proposed algorithm is developed by combining the acceptance–rejection and conditional methods along with the use of optimization tools. The acceptance rate of the algorithm is analytically compared to that of a crude acceptance–rejection algorithm, which generates points over the simplex and then rejects any points falling outside the intersecting set. Finally, using convex optimization, the setup phase of the algorithm is detailed for the special cases where the intersecting set is a general convex set, a convex set defined by a finite number of convex constraints or a polyhedron.     

A hierarchical Bayesian regression model for the uncertain functional constraint using screened scale mixtures of Gaussian distributions

This paper considers a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of regression models using a class of Gaussian scale mixtures. This class provides a robust alternative to the common use of the Gaussian distribution as a prior distribution in particular for estimating the regression function subject to uncertainty about the constraint. For this purpose, we use a family of rectangular screened multivariate scale mixtures of Gaussian distribution as a prior for the regression function, which is flexible enough to reflect the degrees of uncertainty about the functional constraint. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian regression model for the constrained regression function with uncertainty on the basis of three stages of a prior hierarchy with Gaussian scale mixtures, referred to as a hierarchical screened scale mixture of Gaussian regression models (HSMGRM). We describe distributional properties of HSMGRM and an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior inference, and apply the proposed model to real applications with constrained regression models subject to uncertainty.     

Maximum a-posteriori estimation of autoregressive processes based on finite mixtures of scale-mixtures of skew-normal distributions

This article investigates maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimation of autoregressive model parameters when the innovations (errors) follow a finite mixture of distributions that, in turn, are scale-mixtures of skew-normal distributions (SMSN), an attractive and extremely flexible family of probabilistic distributions. The proposed model allows to fit different types of data which can be associated with different noise levels, and provides a robust modelling with great flexibility to accommodate skewness, heavy tails, multimodality and stationarity simultaneously. Also, the existence of convenient hierarchical representations of the SMSN random variables allows us to develop an EM-type algorithm to perform the MAP estimates. A comprehensive simulation study is then conducted to illustrate the superior performance of the proposed method. The new methodology is also applied to annual barley yields data.     

An online Bayesian mixture labelling method by minimizing deviance of classification probabilities to reference labels

Solving label switching is crucial for interpreting the results of fitting Bayesian mixture models. The label switching originates from the invariance of posterior distribution to permutation of component labels. As a result, the component labels in Markov chain simulation may switch to another equivalent permutation, and the marginal posterior distribution associated with all labels may be similar and useless for inferring quantities relating to each individual component. In this article, we propose a new simple labelling method by minimizing the deviance of the class probabilities to a fixed reference labels. The reference labels can be chosen before running Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) using optimization methods, such as expectation-maximization algorithms, and therefore the new labelling method can be implemented by an online algorithm, which can reduce the storage requirements and save much computation time. Using the Acid data set and Galaxy data set, we demonstrate the success of the proposed labelling method for removing the labelling switching in the raw MCMC samples.     

Linear Quantile Regression Based on EM Algorithm

This article aims to put forward a new method to solve the linear quantile regression problems based on EM algorithm using a location-scale mixture of the asymmetric Laplace error distribution. A closed form of the estimator of the unknown parameter vector β based on EM algorithm, is obtained. In addition, some simulations are conducted to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm performs well. Finally, the classical Engel data is fitted and the Bootstrap confidence intervals for estimators are provided.     

Generalized Additive Models for Zero‐Inflated Data with Partial Constraints

Abstract. Zero‐inflated data abound in ecological studies as well as in other scientific fields. Non‐parametric regression with zero‐inflated response may be studied via the zero‐inflated generalized additive model (ZIGAM) with a probabilistic mixture distribution of zero and a regular exponential family component. We propose the (partially) constrained ZIGAM, which assumes that some covariates affect the probability of non‐zero‐inflation and the regular exponential family distribution mean proportionally on the link scales. When the assumption obtains, the new approach provides a unified framework for modelling zero‐inflated data, which is more parsimonious and efficient than the unconstrained ZIGAM. We develop an iterative estimation algorithm, and discuss the confidence interval construction of the estimator. Some asymptotic properties are derived. We also propose a Bayesian model selection criterion for choosing between the unconstrained and constrained ZIGAMs. The new methods are illustrated with both simulated data and a real application in jellyfish abundance data analysis.     

Evaluation of Beta Generation Algorithms

In this article, we discuss the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) for the exponential and Weibull distributions by considering progressive Type-I interval censored data. For exponential distribution, the explicit expression of MLE of failure rate cannot be obtained when the intervals are not equal in length. The direct application of some numerical algorithms, such as the Newton–Raphson algorithm, is non-ideal because of the cumbersome second derivative. We apply some equivalent quantities to obtain the MLE of failure rate of exponential distribution. Based on the equivalent quantities and the Weibull-to-exponential transformation technique, we propose a new algorithm to obtain the MLEs for the parameters of progressive Type-I interval Weibull data. An example reanalysis and some simulation studies are carried out to illustrate the performance of the estimations using the new algorithm.     

A new REML (parameter expanded) EM algorithm for linear mixed models

Linear mixed models are regularly applied to animal and plant breeding data to evaluate genetic potential. Residual maximum likelihood (REML) is the preferred method for estimating variance parameters associated with this type of model. Typically an iterative algorithm is required for the estimation of variance parameters. Two algorithms which can be used for this purpose are the expectation‐maximisation (EM) algorithm and the parameter expanded EM (PX‐EM) algorithm. Both, particularly the EM algorithm, can be slow to converge when compared to a Newton‐Raphson type scheme such as the average information (AI) algorithm. The EM and PX‐EM algorithms require specification of the complete data, including the incomplete and missing data. We consider a new incomplete data specification based on a conditional derivation of REML. We illustrate the use of the resulting new algorithm through two examples: a sire model for lamb weight data and a balanced incomplete block soybean variety trial. In the cases where the AI algorithm failed, a REML PX‐EM based on the new incomplete data specification converged in 28% to 30% fewer iterations than the alternative REML PX‐EM specification. For the soybean example a REML EM algorithm using the new specification converged in fewer iterations than the current standard specification of a REML PX‐EM algorithm. The new specification integrates linear mixed models, Henderson's mixed model equations, REML and the REML EM algorithm into a cohesive framework.     

Inference and optimal censoring schemes for progressively censored Birnbaum–Saunders distribution

The aim of this paper is twofold. First we discuss the maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters of a two-parameter Birnbaum–Saunders distribution when the data are progressively Type-II censored. The maximum likelihood estimators are obtained using the EM algorithm by exploiting the property that the Birnbaum–Saunders distribution can be expressed as an equal mixture of an inverse Gaussian distribution and its reciprocal. From the proposed EM algorithm, the observed information matrix can be obtained quite easily, which can be used to construct the asymptotic confidence intervals. We perform the analysis of two real and one simulated data sets for illustrative purposes, and the performances are quite satisfactory. We further propose the use of different criteria to compare two different sampling schemes, and then find the optimal sampling scheme for a given criterion. It is observed that finding the optimal censoring scheme is a discrete optimization problem, and it is quite a computer intensive process. We examine one sub-optimal censoring scheme by restricting the choice of censoring schemes to one-step censoring schemes as suggested by Balakrishnan (2007), which can be obtained quite easily. We compare the performances of the sub-optimal censoring schemes with the optimal ones, and observe that the loss of information is quite insignificant.     

Linear latent structure analysis: Mixture distribution models with linear constraints

A new method for analyzing high-dimensional categorical data, Linear Latent Structure (LLS) analysis, is presented. LLS models belong to the family of latent structure models, which are mixture distribution models constrained to satisfy the local independence assumption. LLS analysis explicitly considers a family of mixed distributions as a linear space, and LLS models are obtained by imposing linear constraints on the mixing distribution.LLS models are identifiable under modest conditions and are consistently estimable. A remarkable feature of LLS analysis is the existence of a high-performance numerical algorithm, which reduces parameter estimation to a sequence of linear algebra problems. Simulation experiments with a prototype of the algorithm demonstrated a good quality of restoration of model parameters.     

A Thresholding Algorithm for Order Selection in Finite Mixture Models

Order selection is an important step in the application of finite mixture models. Classical methods such as AIC and BIC discourage complex models with a penalty directly proportional to the number of mixing components. In contrast, Chen and Khalili propose to link the penalty to two types of overfitting. In particular, they introduce a regularization penalty to merge similar subpopulations in a mixture model, where the shrinkage idea of regularized regression is seamlessly employed. However, the new method requires an effective and efficient algorithm. When the popular expectation-maximization (EM)-algorithm is used, we need to maximize a nonsmooth and nonconcave objective function in the M-step, which is computationally challenging. In this article, we show that such an objective function can be transformed into a sum of univariate auxiliary functions. We then design an iterative thresholding descent algorithm (ITD) to efficiently solve the associated optimization problem. Unlike many existing numerical approaches, the new algorithm leads to sparse solutions and thereby avoids undesirable ad hoc steps. We establish the convergence of the ITD and further assess its empirical performance using both simulations and real data examples.