A Flexible Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Technique for Risk Analysis of Major Accidents

Safety analysis of rare events with potentially catastrophic consequences is challenged by data scarcity and uncertainty. Traditional causation‐based approaches, such as fault tree and event tree (used to model rare event), suffer from a number of weaknesses. These include the static structure of the event causation, lack of event occurrence data, and need for reliable prior information. In this study, a new hierarchical Bayesian modeling based technique is proposed to overcome these drawbacks. The proposed technique can be used as a flexible technique for risk analysis of major accidents. It enables both forward and backward analysis in quantitative reasoning and the treatment of interdependence among the model parameters. Source‐to‐source variability in data sources is also taken into account through a robust probabilistic safety analysis. The applicability of the proposed technique has been demonstrated through a case study in marine and offshore industry.     

信息化中高层支持的维度表现以及影响因素分析——一个本土案例研究

通过本土扎根研究对高层支持的维度组成以及影响因素进行探索性分析.提出一个基于本土管理实践的框架模型,目的在于进一步理解信息化变革中的高层行为并为变革提供一定程度的理论支持.研究结果发现,高层支持主要包括资源支持、变革支持等几个重要维度;环境压力、技术优势、管理压力是影响高层支持的重要原因.企业家精神作为调节变量会调节上述自变量与高层支持间的关系.     

Technology roadmapping for technology-based product-service integration: A case study

Today, since a single product is no longer sufficient to cope with the dynamic market environment, firms are trying to provide the integrated offering of products and services. However, despite the importance and utility of product-service integration, a limited approach has been conducted regarding the planning of the strategic management of integrated offering. To deal with this issue, this paper firstly suggests the concept and typology of technological interface in product-service integration. Based on the technological interface, a generic structure of product-service integrated roadmap is developed. Extended from the generic structure, this paper finally proposes the typological configurations of integrated roadmap according to the technological interface and investigates the usage, characteristics, and roadmapping processes.     

HRM and radical innovation: A dual approach with exploration as a mediator

Radical innovation is crucial for a firm’s success, and organisations should promote it. Prior research has argued that human capital is essential for a company’s innovation. However, the direct and indirect effects of Human Resource Management (HRM) on radical innovation have not yet been determined. Therefore, the present paper aims to explore the direct impact of HRM on radical innovation with a content approach and a process approach. It will also examine the mediating effect that learning through an exploration process has on HRM and radical innovation. Using data from 200 medium-sized Spanish industrial firms, our results demonstrate that Strategic Human Resource Management (SHRM) has a positive and direct effect on radical innovation. We also find that an HRM system directed toward change and creativity and SHRM positively support the process of exploration learning, and that competence exploration has a favourable impact on radical innovation. These results indicate that competence exploration mediates the effect HRM systems and SHRM have on radical innovation.     

Optimal Tracking and Testing of U.S. and Canadian Herds for BSE: A Value-of-Information (VOI) Approach

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) tests a subset of cattle slaughtered in the United States for bovine spongiform encephalitis (BSE). Knowing the origin of cattle (U.S. vs. Canadian) at testing could enable new testing or surveillance policies based on the origin of cattle testing positive. For example, if a Canadian cow tests positive for BSE, while no U.S. origin cattle do, the United States could subject Canadian cattle to more stringent testing. This article illustrates the application of a value-of-information (VOI) framework to quantify and compare potential economic costs to the United States of implementing tracking cattle origins to the costs of not doing so. The potential economic value of information from a tracking program is estimated to exceed its costs by more than five-fold if such information can reduce future losses in export and domestic markets and reduce future testing costs required to reassure or win back customers. Sensitivity analyses indicate that this conclusion is somewhat robust to many technical, scientific, and market uncertainties, including the current prevalence of BSE in the United States and/or Canada and the likely reactions of consumers to possible future discoveries of BSE in the United States and/or Canada. Indeed, the potential value of tracking information is great enough to justify locating and tracking Canadian cattle already in the United States when this can be done for a reasonable cost. If aggressive tracking and testing can win back lost exports, then the VOI of a tracking program may increase to over half a billion dollars per year.     

基于人工免疫的企业流程案例库三级索引框架

根据流程案例的特点,从行业、业务和流程信息化程度3个方面构建三级索引框架,从而能够有效地对流程案例进行分类存储、快速检索与匹配。三级索引机制的核心是基于企业流程信息化程度的第三级索引构建,利用基于人工免疫的aiNet聚类方法的噪声忍耐、自组织、记忆性以及能够有效避免局部最优等方面的特点,对流程案例进行第三级分类,将人工免疫的抗体作为聚类中心,形成流程案例的第三级索引。最后利用105个样本对该三级索引机制的构建过程进行了实证。     

Martin K. Starr: A Visionary Proponent for System Integration,Modular Production,and Catastrophe Avoidance

Martin K. Starr facilitated the creation of an identity for production and operations management (POM) as an academic discipline. This paper aims to summarize Starr's substantial contributions to scholarly inquiry on system integration and interfunctional coordination, modular production, and catastrophe avoidance. Even after four decades, we describe how his legacy in these areas continues to define several major drivers of operations and supply chain management research and practice. Starr has influenced several generations of students, professors, and executives with his writings, teaching, and leadership roles in the POM community that include 32 years on the faculty of the Columbia School of Business, 15 years as Editor‐in‐Chief of Management Science, and presidency of the Production and Operations Management Society.