Using a Truncated C p Statistic for Variable Selection in Multiple Linear Regression

In multiple linear regression analysis each lower-dimensional subspace L of a known linear subspace M of ? ⁿ corresponds to a non empty subset of the columns of the regressor matrix. For a fixed subspace L, the C _p statistic is an unbiased estimator of the mean square error if the projection of the response vector onto L is used to estimate the expected response. In this article, we consider two truncated versions of the C _p statistic that can also be used to estimate this mean square error. The C _p statistic and its truncated versions are compared in two example data sets, illustrating that use of the truncated versions may result in models different from those selected by standard C _p .     

EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD-BASED KERNEL DENSITY ESTIMATION

This paper considers the estimation of a probability density function when extra distributional information is available (e.g. the mean of the distribution is known or the variance is a known function of the mean). The standard kernel method cannot exploit such extra information systematically as it uses an equal probability weight n^-1 at each data point. The paper suggests using empirical likelihood to choose the probability weights under constraints formulated from the extra distributional information. An empirical likelihood-based kernel density estimator is given by replacing n^-1 by the empirical likelihood weights, and has these advantages: it makes systematic use of the extra information, it is able to reflect the extra characteristics of the density function, and its variance is smaller than that of the standard kernel density estimator.     

On improving convergence rate of Bernstein polynomial density estimator

This paper is concerned with the Bernstein estimator [Vitale, R.A. (1975), ‘A Bernstein Polynomial Approach to Density Function Estimation’, in Statistical Inference and Related Topics, ed. M.L. Puri, 2, New York: Academic Press, pp. 87–99] to estimate a density with support [0, 1]. One of the major contributions of this paper is an application of a multiplicative bias correction [Terrell, G.R., and Scott, D.W. (1980), ‘On Improving Convergence Rates for Nonnegative Kernel Density Estimators’, The Annals of Statistics, 8, 1160–1163], which was originally developed for the standard kernel estimator. Moreover, the renormalised multiplicative bias corrected Bernstein estimator is studied rigorously. The mean squared error (MSE) in the interior and mean integrated squared error of the resulting bias corrected Bernstein estimators as well as the additive bias corrected Bernstein estimator [Leblanc, A. (2010), ‘A Bias-reduced Approach to Density Estimation Using Bernstein Polynomials’, Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, 22, 459–475] are shown to be O(n^?8/9) when the underlying density has a fourth-order derivative, where n is the sample size. The condition under which the MSE near the boundary is O(n^?8/9) is also discussed. Finally, numerical studies based on both simulated and real data sets are presented.     

Adaptive Deconvolution on the Non‐negative Real Line

In this paper, we consider the problem of adaptive density or survival function estimation in an additive model defined by Z=X+Y with X independent of Y, when both random variables are non‐negative. This model is relevant, for instance, in reliability fields where we are interested in the failure time of a certain material that cannot be isolated from the system it belongs. Our goal is to recover the distribution of X (density or survival function) through n observations of Z, assuming that the distribution of Y is known. This issue can be seen as the classical statistical problem of deconvolution that has been tackled in many cases using Fourier‐type approaches. Nonetheless, in the present case, the random variables have the particularity to be supported. Knowing that, we propose a new angle of attack by building a projection estimator with an appropriate Laguerre basis. We present upper bounds on the mean squared integrated risk of our density and survival function estimators. We then describe a non‐parametric data‐driven strategy for selecting a relevant projection space. The procedures are illustrated with simulated data and compared with the performances of a more classical deconvolution setting using a Fourier approach. Our procedure achieves faster convergence rates than Fourier methods for estimating these functions.     

On Projection‐type Estimators of Multivariate Isotonic Functions

Abstract. Let M be an isotonic real‐valued function on a compact subset of and let be an unconstrained estimator of M. A feasible monotonizing technique is to take the largest (smallest) monotone function that lies below (above) the estimator or any convex combination of these two envelope estimators. When the process is asymptotically equicontinuous for some sequence r_n→∞, we show that these projection‐type estimators are r_n‐equivalent in probability to the original unrestricted estimator. Our first motivating application involves a monotone estimator of the conditional distribution function that has the distributional properties of the local linear regression estimator. Applications also include the estimation of econometric (probability‐weighted moment, quantile) and biometric (mean remaining lifetime) functions.     

Estimation and Inference for Linear Panel Data Models Under Misspecification When Both n and T are Large

This article considers fixed effects (FE) estimation for linear panel data models under possible model misspecification when both the number of individuals, n, and the number of time periods, T, are large. We first clarify the probability limit of the FE estimator and argue that this probability limit can be regarded as a pseudo-true parameter. We then establish the asymptotic distributional properties of the FE estimator around the pseudo-true parameter when n and T jointly go to infinity. Notably, we show that the FE estimator suffers from the incidental parameters bias of which the top order is O(T^{? 1}), and even after the incidental parameters bias is completely removed, the rate of convergence of the FE estimator depends on the degree of model misspecification and is either (nT)^{? 1/2} or n^{? 1/2}. Second, we establish asymptotically valid inference on the (pseudo-true) parameter. Specifically, we derive the asymptotic properties of the clustered covariance matrix (CCM) estimator and the cross-section bootstrap, and show that they are robust to model misspecification. This establishes a rigorous theoretical ground for the use of the CCM estimator and the cross-section bootstrap when model misspecification and the incidental parameters bias (in the coefficient estimate) are present. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the finite sample performance of the estimators and inference methods, together with a simple application to the unemployment dynamics in the U.S.     

Polynomial Histograms for Multivariate Density and Mode Estimation

Abstract. We consider the problem of efficiently estimating multivariate densities and their modes for moderate dimensions and an abundance of data. We propose polynomial histograms to solve this estimation problem. We present first‐ and second‐order polynomial histogram estimators for a general d‐dimensional setting. Our theoretical results include pointwise bias and variance of these estimators, their asymptotic mean integrated square error (AMISE), and optimal binwidth. The asymptotic performance of the first‐order estimator matches that of the kernel density estimator, while the second order has the faster rate of O(n^?6/(d+6)). For a bivariate normal setting, we present explicit expressions for the AMISE constants which show the much larger binwidths of the second order estimator and hence also more efficient computations of multivariate densities. We apply polynomial histogram estimators to real data from biotechnology and find the number and location of modes in such data.     

On the estimation of the marginal density of a moving average process

The authors present a new convolution‐type kernel estimator of the marginal density of an MA(1) process with general error distribution. They prove the √n; ‐consistency of the nonparametric estimator and give asymptotic expressions for the mean square and the integrated mean square error of some unobservable version of the estimator. An extension to MA(q) processes is presented in the case of the mean integrated square error. Finally, a simulation study shows the good practical behaviour of the estimator and the strong connection between the estimator and its unobservable version in terms of the choice of the bandwidth.     

Strong Consistency of Reduced K‐means Clustering

Reduced k‐means clustering is a method for clustering objects in a low‐dimensional subspace. The advantage of this method is that both clustering of objects and low‐dimensional subspace reflecting the cluster structure are simultaneously obtained. In this paper, the relationship between conventional k‐means clustering and reduced k‐means clustering is discussed. Conditions ensuring almost sure convergence of the estimator of reduced k‐means clustering as unboundedly increasing sample size have been presented. The results for a more general model considering conventional k‐means clustering and reduced k‐means clustering are provided in this paper. Moreover, a consistent selection of the numbers of clusters and dimensions is described.     

Bias reduction of the maximum-likelihood estimator for a conditional Gaussian MA(1) model

In this paper, we consider an estimation for the unknown parameters of a conditional Gaussian MA(1) model. In the majority of cases, a maximum-likelihood estimator is chosen because the estimator is consistent. However, for small sample sizes the error is large, because the estimator has a bias of O(n^{? 1}). Therefore, we provide a bias of O(n^{? 1}) for the maximum-likelihood estimator for the conditional Gaussian MA(1) model. Moreover, we propose new estimators for the unknown parameters of the conditional Gaussian MA(1) model based on the bias of O(n^{? 1}). We investigate the properties of the bias, as well as the asymptotical variance of the maximum-likelihood estimators for the unknown parameters, by performing some simulations. Finally, we demonstrate the validity of the new estimators through this simulation study.     

Detection of a change point with local polynomial fits for the random design case

Regression functions may have a change or discontinuity point in the ν th derivative function at an unknown location. This paper considers a method of estimating the location and the jump size of the change point based on the local polynomial fits with one‐sided kernels when the design points are random. It shows that the estimator of the location of the change point achieves the rate n^?1/(2ν+1) when ν is even. On the other hand, when ν is odd, it converges faster than the rate n^?1/(2ν+1) due to a property of one‐sided kernels. Computer simulation demonstrates the improved performance of the method over the existing ones.     

An asymptotic representation of a ratio of two statistics and its applications

Some statistics in common use take a form of a ratio of two statistics.In this paper, we will discuss asymptotic properties of the ratio statistic.We obtain an asymptotic representation of the ratio with remainder term o _p(n ^-1) and a Edgeworth expansion with remainder term o(n ^-1/2) And as example, the asymptotic representation and the Edgeworth expansion of the jackknife skewness estimator for U-statistics are established and we discuss the biases of the skewness estimator theoretically.We also apply the result to an estimator of Pearson’s coefficient of variation and the sample correlation coefficient.     

Limiting bias-reduced Amoroso kernel density estimators for non-negative data

The Amoroso kernel density estimator (Igarashi and Kakizawa 2017 Igarashi, G., and Y. Kakizawa. 2017. Amoroso kernel density estimation for nonnegative data and its bias reduction. Department of Policy and Planning Sciences Discussion Paper Series No. 1345, University of Tsukuba. [Google Scholar]) for non-negative data is boundary-bias-free and has the mean integrated squared error (MISE) of order O(n^{? 4/5}), where n is the sample size. In this paper, we construct a linear combination of the Amoroso kernel density estimator and its derivative with respect to the smoothing parameter. Also, we propose a related multiplicative estimator. We show that the MISEs of these bias-reduced estimators achieve the convergence rates n^{? 8/9}, if the underlying density is four times continuously differentiable. We illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators, through the simulations.     

Wavelet Estimation of a Density in a GARCH-type Model

We consider the GARCH-type model: S = σ² Z, where σ² and Z are independent random variables. The density of σ² is unknown whereas the one of Z is known. We want to estimate the density of σ² from n observations of S under some dependence assumption (the exponentially strongly mixing dependence). Adopting the wavelet methodology, we construct a nonadaptive estimator based on projections and an adaptive estimator based on the hard thresholding rule. Taking the mean integrated squared error over Besov balls, we prove that the adaptive one attains a sharp rate of convergence.     

Quasi-universal bandwidth selection for kernel density estimators

Let f?_n, h denote the kernel density estimate based on a sample of size n drawn from an unknown density f. Using techniques from L₂ projection density estimators, the author shows how to construct a data-driven estimator f?_n, h which satisfies This paper is inspired by work of Stone (1984), Devroye and Lugosi (1996) and Birge and Massart (1997).     

Exponential Family Techniques for the Lognormal Left Tail

Let X be lognormal(μ,σ²) with density f(x); let θ > 0 and define . We study properties of the exponentially tilted density (Esscher transform) f_θ(x) = e^?θxf(x)/L(θ), in particular its moments, its asymptotic form as θ→∞ and asymptotics for the saddlepoint θ(x) determined by . The asymptotic formulas involve the Lambert W function. The established relations are used to provide two different numerical methods for evaluating the left tail probability of the sum of lognormals S_n=X₁+?+X_n: a saddlepoint approximation and an exponential tilting importance sampling estimator. For the latter, we demonstrate logarithmic efficiency. Numerical examples for the cdf F_n(x) and the pdf f_n(x) of S_n are given in a range of values of σ²,n and x motivated by portfolio value‐at‐risk calculations.     

On shrinking minimax convergence in nonparametric statistics

‘?…?if we are prepared to assume that the unknown density has k derivatives, then?…?the optimal mean integrated squared error is of order n^{?2 k/(2 k+1)}?…?’ The citation is from Silverman [(1986), Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis, London: Chapman &; Hall] and its assertion is based on a classical minimax lower bound which is the pillar of the modern nonparametric statistics. This paper proposes a new minimax methodology that implies a faster decreasing minimax lower bound that is attainable by a data-driven estimator, and the same estimator is also minimax under the classical approach. The recommendation is to test performance of estimators via the new and classical minimax approaches.     

First‐order bias correction for fractionally integrated time series

Most of the long memory estimators for stationary fractionally integrated time series models are known to experience non‐negligible bias in small and finite samples. Simple moment estimators are also vulnerable to such bias, but can easily be corrected. In this article, the authors propose bias reduction methods for a lag‐one sample autocorrelation‐based moment estimator. In order to reduce the bias of the moment estimator, the authors explicitly obtain the exact bias of lag‐one sample autocorrelation up to the order n⁻¹. An example where the exact first‐order bias can be noticeably more accurate than its asymptotic counterpart, even for large samples, is presented. The authors show via a simulation study that the proposed methods are promising and effective in reducing the bias of the moment estimator with minimal variance inflation. The proposed methods are applied to the northern hemisphere data. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 476–493; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Optimal estimators for the importance sampling method

The Monte Carlo method gives some estimators to evaluate the expectation [ILM0001] based on samples from either the true density f or from some instrumental density. In this paper, we show that the Riemann estimators introduced by Philippe (1997) can be improved by using the importance sampling method. This approach produces a class of Monte Carlo estimators such that the variance is of order O(n ^?2). The choice of an optimal estimator among this class is discussed. Some simulations illustrate the improvement brought by this method. Moreover, we give a criterion to assess the convergence of our optimal estimator to the integral of interest.     

The asymptotic behavior of monotone percentile regression estimates

The least-absolute-deviation estimate of a monotone regression function on an interval has been studied in the literature. If the observation points become dense in the interval, the almost sure rate of convergence has been shown to be O(n^1/4). Applying the techniques used by Brunk (1970, Nonparametric, Techniques in Statistical Inference. Cambridge Univ. Press), the asymptotic distribution of the l₁ estimator at a point is obtained. If the underlying regression function has positive slope at the point, the rate of convergence is seen to be O(n^1/3). Monotone percentile regression estimates are also considered.