Trust in the face of uncertainty: a qualitative study of intersubjective trust and risk

Contemporary trust research regards trust as a way of dealing with uncertainty and risk. Predominantly, it suggests that trust reduces uncertainty by means of risk assessment and rational calculation. However, phenomenological research proposes that trust is an alternative way of relating to uncertainty rather than a way to reduced uncertainty. This paper investigates these propositions in an interview study on intersubjective trust. The study focuses on the modes of uncertainty management employed in trust and risk, and particularly on how knowledge, experience, familiarity, and decision-making are combined in the act of trusting. The main finding is that trust and risk are better characterised as different ways of perceiving the social and managing uncertainty, than as different elements of the same decision process. The concept of ‘risk compartmentalisation’ is developed to describe the different ways people work to contain risk and maintain trust by combining adaptation and familiarity.     

Confronting Uncertainty: Lessons from Rural Social Work

Abstract

Communities in Australia and internationally are experiencing massive change. Climate variability is an aspect of change that social workers in Australia, particularly in rural areas, are grappling with. Vulnerable populations will be at increased risk as extreme weather events increase in frequency. Communities will be facing social challenges hitherto unknown. The experience of uncertainty and fragmentation as characteristics of postmodernism has exposed the ambiguous and contested nature of much of social work practice and contributed to a crisis of confidence for the social work profession. The move towards rationality and linear approaches in the postwelfare state is often at odds with the complexity and uncertainty of human situations that has always been social work terrain. It can be argued that social work, with its ethical base, person-in-environment approach, expertise in ambiguity and complexity, and recognition of context, is well-placed to manage postmodern uncertainty. Using the 2009 Victorian bushfire example, I argue that an uncertain future is an opportunity for social workers, those working in rural areas in particular, to reassert social work's moral purpose in working with communities facing change. Implications for social work policy, practice, and education are briefly explored.     

“It's Just a Likelihood”: Uncertainty as Topic and Resource in Conveying “Positive” Results in an Antenatal Screening Clinic

The recognition of uncertainty as a pivotal issue for the sociology of medicine is longstanding. More recently, the widespread integration of new medical technologies into healthcare has led to a renewed analytic focus on uncertainty. However, there remains little work on the interactional manifestations of uncertainty. This article uses conversation analysis to examine how uncertainty is introduced and used in one specific setting: an antenatal screening clinic in Hong Kong. We focus on women who have received “screen positive” or higher risk results, and reflect on the ways in which uncertainty is an “essential tension” (Mazeland and ten Have 1996) in the activity of conveying these results to them. We conclude that as well as posing potential difficulties for interaction, the uncertainty of test results is also used here as an interactional resource in managing the institutionally defined category of “high risk.”     

Repositioning Risk in Social Work Education: Reflections Arising from the Threat of SARS to Social Work Students in Hong Kong during their Field Practicum

The social work profession has always been involved in dealing with uncertainty and risk in the life politics of clients. However, it is not easy for young social work students to translate this philosophical disposition into their real life practice with clients. In spring 2003, when the SARS epidemic broke out in Hong Kong, a group of social work students from the Chinese University of Hong Kong were doing their fieldwork practicum. Suddenly confronted by a collective sense of risk in their role as social workers, the students went through a period of unrest, as performing their helping duties brought with it a simultaneous exposure to personal risk. This paper is based on four focus group interviews with these social work students, to understand how they processed their experience of risk during their exposure to the SARS crisis, and how they connected the experience to their social work practice with clients. It is found that the predicament arising from the exposure to personal risk brought about by the SARS crisis during the students' field placement engendered the reflective process that enabled a renewed and personalized meaning of professionalism. The results provide a basis for reflection among social work educators on the role of risk in the training of prospective social workers, and on how social work education can better prepare students for practice in a high‐risk environment.     

ADJUSTMENT TO PRODUCTION UNCERTAINTY AND THE THEORY OF THE FIRM

This paper considers the behavior of the firm which faces uncertainty in its production process but can adjust its output once the uncertainty is resolved. Ex post adjustment, unlike previous treatments, involves a marginal cost penalty if more output is required and a lowering of price if too much is produced. With ex post adjustment allowed in this fashion, it is found that nonlinear risk preferences do not affect the sign of the firm's marginal risk premium at optimum ex ante output. The firm will produce less output than under certainty whether it is risk averse, risk neutral, or prefers risk.     

PERSONALITY,INFORMATION ACQUISITION,AND CHOICE UNDER UNCERTAINTY: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY

This article studies the role of personality in choice under risk and uncertainty. We explore the hypothesis that personality plays a role in decision making in situations of uncertainty but not in situations of risk. In addition to offering support for this main hypothesis, we explore the various pathways through which personality exerts its influence. What we find is that in uncertain environments, where decision makers are able to acquire information about the unknown probability distributions they face, personality variables influence the type of information people acquire, which then influences their choice. Our experimental design brings in two novel aspects of choice under uncertainty: information acquisition and advice. The findings indicate that indeed, under uncertainty, personality matters for choice in a way it does not under risk. Furthermore, the results suggest that personality can play a role at multiple levels, such as people's preferences for certain types of information and the likelihood of following advice. (JEL C90, D03, D81)     

Social class variation in risk: a comparative analysis of the dynamics of economic vulnerability1

A joint concern with multidimensionality and dynamics is a defining feature of the pervasive use of the terminology of social exclusion in the European Union. The notion of social exclusion focuses attention on economic vulnerability in the sense of exposure to risk and uncertainty. Sociological concern with these issues has been associated with the thesis that risk and uncertainty have become more pervasive and extend substantially beyond the working class. This paper combines features of recent approaches to statistical modelling of poverty dynamics and multidimensional deprivation in order to develop our understanding of the dynamics of economic vulnerability. An analysis involving nine countries and covering the first five waves of the European Community Household Panel shows that, across nations and time, it is possible to identify an economically vulnerable class. This class is characterized by heightened risk of falling below a critical resource level, exposure to material deprivation and experience of subjective economic stress. Cross‐national differentials in persistence of vulnerability are wider than in the case of income poverty and less affected by measurement error. Economic vulnerability profiles vary across welfare regimes in a manner broadly consistent with our expectations. Variation in the impact of social class within and across countries provides no support for the argument that its role in structuring such risk has become much less important. Our findings suggest that it is possible to accept the importance of the emergence of new forms of social risk and acknowledge the significance of efforts to develop welfare states policies involving a shift of opportunities and decision making on to individuals without accepting the ‘death of social class’ thesis.     

Income in jeopardy: How losing employment affects the willingness to take risks

Identifying the determinants of risk-taking is crucial for our understanding of a variety of choices. Using German panel data, we find that people become more risk-averse when losing work. The immediate income loss does not mediate this effect. It seems also unrelated to the loss of non-monetary benefits of work and to changes of worker’s emotional state. However, we find that risk aversion responds the more strongly to losing work the more future income is at stake, and that the effect manifests itself already on the eve of job loss when people do not yet suffer from the consequences of the event. We conclude that lower future income expectations and more uncertainty about future incomes may explain the effect of job loss on risk attitude. Our results might imply that a recession may reinforce itself as it induces people to fear job loss, which raises their risk aversion and might therefore reduce the willingness to invest in risky projects. Moreover, self-assessed risk attitude seems to measure absolute risk aversion and thus not only an underlying risk preference parameter.     

Trust and embedded markets: A multi-method investigation of consumer transactions

Previous work shows that, as the buyer's uncertainty about the quality of some good or service increases, so does the tendency to purchase that good or service via embedded transactions, rather than from strangers. While this previous work explains variation in embedded exchange across different types of purchases, it does not address variation in embedded exchange across persons. Our research integrates the embeddedness and trust literatures to explain variation in within-network exchanges based on an interaction of the purchaser's generalized trust and the level of uncertainty entailed in the purchase (i.e., whether there exists an incentive for the seller to misrepresent the quality of some good or service). For purchases involving uncertainty, low-trusters will tend to forgo risky transactions with strangers, opting instead for the increased certainty of embedded markets. High-trusters, on the other hand, will be more likely to transact with strangers (despite the increased risk), from whom they can often find better deals. We should not expect any differences between high- and low-trusters for products that do not entail uncertainty. Results from two data sources, responses from a nationally representative survey of the U.S. population and behavioral responses in new laboratory experiments, provide support for the arguments.     

To risk or not to risk? Uses and limitations of Mary Douglas on risk acceptability for understanding health and safety at work and road accidents*

The recent Greening of politics in the West has encouraged rapid development of research into both environmental hazards and risk perceptions among the public. There are also longstanding traditions of research into behaviour under risk in such disparate fields as superpower relations (Allison 1971), inter-country commercial transactions, the economics of uncertainty, and the study of natural disasters (Torry 1979). Relatively few sociologists or social anthropologists have contributed. A major exception is Mary Douglas (1982,1985,1987). This paper is an attempt to make use of her work and to tests its limits, in answering two empirical questions: How do managers and workers address workplace hazards? And, how do motorcyclists and drivers behave on the roads?     

Research Note—Program Evaluation: Enhancing Academic Quality and Program Integrity During Rapid Off-Campus Growth

By creating a program evaluation model that assesses multiple components from several perspectives, a social work division is able to determine the quality, effectiveness, and integrity of its offerings and support its mission to develop social work students for practice. This task is critical in supporting an off-campus program’s ability to navigate change and uncertainty in higher education. This research note discusses how a small, bachelor of social work program with a dual-delivery system (traditional and community-site) used the Council on Social Work Education reaccreditation process to adapt its program evaluation to ensure academic quality and program integrity during a period of rapid growth.     

Working systemically following abuse: exploring safe uncertainty

This paper explores systemic practice and ‘safe uncertainty’ in work with parents who do not accept responsibility following child abuse. The prevailing view has been that little positive work can be carried out with families where responsibility is denied. Our work is offered to add to the small yet growing number of publications which challenge the dominant discourse relating to child protection work. A case study is illustrated within which the issue of assessment versus therapy emerges. The Legal Department of the Local Authority Social Services requested an assessment from child and family psychiatry. Concern developed regarding the point at which assessment ended and therapy began. The authors offer a systemic model in exploring the importance of a safe multi‐disciplinary framework within which uncertainty can be tolerated and therapy/change work can be affected. A framework within which parents can be supported in developing skills to meet the needs of children is presented. These issues are central to the professional and legal systems relating to child protection in the UK. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

OUT OF UTOPIA:

An important segment of writings on postindustrialization is distinctly utopian in stressing the greater mastery and control made possible by recent innovations in information technology. The utopian theme underscores the technical outcomes of innovations and highlights their benefits for ameliorating social problems. By contrast, our work suggests that many of the social problems in contemporary society are a consequence of recent innovations in information technology. We argue that postindustrial theorists are correct in stressing mastery over certain technical problems but incorrect in slighting the destabilizing effect innovations have on organizations and the markets in which these organizations participate. These destabilizing effects complicate organizational strategies by increasing market risk and uncertainty. Since most organizations are risk aversive, social problems are created as organizations externalize their costs and pass along risk to other, more dependent actors. Illustrations from two institutions, politics and the economy, indicate that many postindustrial innovations are associated with heightened competition as well as greater risk and uncertainty across the institutional order. We conclude that postindustrial technology introduces no net gain in man aging the complexities of the social world. Risk and control are both integral to technological innovation and constitute the paradox of postindustrialization.     

Impact of Political Risk and Uncertainty on FDI in South Asia

This study examines the potential effect of political risk and macroeconomic policy uncertainty on FDI in South Asia. To highlight the affect of political risk and macro policy uncertainty on FDI, we setup a theoretical framework based on oligopolistic and imperfect competition environment in host country. Autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) is used to examine the impact of political risk and macro economic policy uncertainty index on FDI inflows. Macroeconomic policy uncertainty and political risk indices are constructed for this purpose. The long run results show negative affect of political risk and macroeconomic policy uncertainty indices on FDI inflows. Trade openness shows positive effect on FDI inflows only in short run while in long run it has negative impact on due lack of creditability regarding consistent trade liberalization policy and high trade cost. Furthermore, the market size significantly affects the inflow of FDI both in long run and short run which shows that FDI inflows in South Asia are mainly depend on market size. South Asian economies need to focus on political and macroeconomic factors along with FDI incentives policies to attract more FDI.     

Integrating Relational Perspectives in Career Counseling Practice

Sweeping changes in the world of work are transforming the very fabric of career counseling practice as clients cope increasingly with work uncertainty, including unemployment, underemployment, and precarious work. The authors describe how relational perspectives (Blustein, 2011 ; Flum 2015 ; Richardson, 2012 ; Schultheiss, 2003 ) can be infused in career counseling, with a focus on the concerns of an increasingly stressed and anxious client population. To provide a framework for the application of relational perspectives, the authors integrate and present existing relational theories and frameworks in 4 tenets that have particular relevance for career counseling practice. An in‐depth case analysis is provided to illustrate how relational perspectives can be integrated in working with clients experiencing uncertain work and associated relational challenges.     

UNCERTAIN EFFECTS OF MONEY AND THE LINK BETWEEN THE INFLATION RATE AND INFLATION UNCERTAINTY

In the postwar period high rates of inflation are associated with high levels of inflation uncertainty. In this paper I argue that the inflation rate and inflation uncertainty are linked by forecasters' uncertainty about the impact of money growth on the price level, and I present evidence indicating that this has been the case. As long as the impact of money growth on the price level remains unpredictable, then even predictable money growth will cause inflation uncertainty with its accompanying adverse effects on employment and output.     

Risk management: a general framework for rural development

This paper proposes a new concept of rural development in an uncertain world. The nature of risk and uncertainty is discussed and risk management is defined as a positive model of economic and social behaviour. Some relevant paradigms for rural development are reviewed and evaluated within the general approach of risk management. It is demonstrated that the proposed view of risk management can effectively combine and reconcile different approaches by highlighting their advantages and shortcomings. Departing from a subjective definition of risk management, we progressively include its social dimensions which introduce both complexity and structure into the process of rural development.     

Discourses of savings

Katona (1975) established the importance of social perception variables in mediating the impact of economic conditions on financial decision making. There has been a tradition of work in economic psychology that has elaborated on this early work. However, clearly the economic and social circumstances for the contemporary consumer are vastly different to those studied by Katona. The present study uses a qualitative analysis of focus group material to investigate lay people's understanding of savings. Interpretation of extracts from the focus groups suggests a complex understanding of the relation between saving and social and economic change. There was a concern with uncertainty, regulation and the moral economy. The findings were interpreted in the light of theories of the risk society.     

Mindfulness as a Coping Mechanism for Employment Uncertainty

Mindfulness‐based stress interventions are well suited to reduce the anxiety of clients living with employment uncertainty. With the advent of globalization, increased job flux, and at‐will employment policies, feelings of insecurity are becoming more prevalent, contributing to work‐related stress (D. L. Blustein, 2006), which in turn is associated with lowered job satisfaction, elevated turnover intentions, and increased cardiovascular risk (C. D. Spielberger, P. R. Vagg, & C. F. Wasala, 2003). Mindfulness, an intentional consciousness learned through meditation, can reduce psychological suffering by reducing the anticipation anxiety experienced by employed workers who face a high degree of employment uncertainty.     

Risk behavior in decision-making in a multi-person-setting

When people have to make a choice in an individual setting between a known-risk option and an untested situation of uncertainty, the majority prefers the known risk over the uncertainty of the alternative. The confrontation with an unfamiliar situation in an environment including other participants allows for new mechanisms in risk-perception and risk-evaluation. People tend to become other-directed and use the behavior and consequences of actions of other people in the environment to assess risk. Our investigations show that warning signals observable in the behavior of other participants in the setting reinforce people's preference for known risks over uncertainty.