1960年以来中国周边邻国国际移民的变迁趋势

利用世界银行全球双边迁移数据库和联合国全球移民存量数据库，对1960～2020年中国周边邻国国际移民的变化趋势进行分析，同时关注邻国国际移民的来华情况，并对其未来趋势进行预判。研究发现，60年间，中国邻国国际移民存量与邻国来华移民存量均呈现先减后增的阶段性变化特征。与此同时，中国邻国国际移民的目的地逐渐向欧美与海湾地区转移，不同邻国国际移民的目的地分布存在差异。在此期间，尽管邻国来华移民在全部在华国际移民中占据重要地位，但绝大多数邻国国际移民并未将中国大陆视为其主要目的地。结合中国未来发展前景与“一带一路”倡议等战略安排，可以预见中国今后将迎接更大规模的邻国国际移民。当前，需要在学术研究与相关政策制定等方面做好充分准备。     

1991年以来俄罗斯的中国移民构成分析

苏联解体后,俄罗斯境内的中国移民规模逐渐增大,随着俄罗斯经济社会的变化,中国移民的构成也变得更加多样和复杂。对俄罗斯边境地区四个州的中国移民情况调查表明,中国移民群体在移民类型、目的、法律地位、地区来源和去向、技术水平和行业分布等构成方面呈现出一定的特点。虽然中国的劳动移民在整体上还没有对俄罗斯劳动力市场和人口就业领域产生关键性的影响,但在俄罗斯东部,特别是在贸易、建筑业和农业等领域,移民的作用日益重要。     

血亲网络对近代东北移民经济差异的影响:1845～1934年

文章利用20世纪30年代东北地区农村调查数据,讨论了作为移民网络重要组成部分的血亲网络对移民间经济福利水平差异及社会流动性的影响。通过构建计量模型进行分析,结果显示:血亲网络对移民提高自身经济福利水平具有显著的正向影响,是导致移民间经济福利水平差异的重要因素;移民在血亲网络的作用下可以实现自身的向上社会流动。文章不仅分析了血亲关系在近代东北移民活动中对提升移民经济福利所起到的重要作用,还揭示了血亲网络在移民群体中所体现的经济功能。     

1960~2020 年在华国际移民变动情况研究

利用世界银行全球双边迁移数据库和联合国国际移民数据库,本文分析了从1960-2020年在华国际移民存量和来源地的变化。发现在华国际移民的情况受到中国社会经济状况以及管理政策的影响,经历了两个完全不同的变动阶段。目前,在华国际移民的相对存量仍然较小,但其绝对存量从1980年前后开始迅速增加,来源国也更加广泛。未来中国可能会迎来国际移民流入的大潮,需要尽快开展国际移民相关的研究,做好在华国际移民的信息采集、识别和管理工作,有针对性地做好在华国际移民管理预案。     

1912-1931年东北地区移民的影响与启示

纵观中国历史上的规模较大的人口流动,清末以来的农民流向东北即“闯关东”,是中国历史上最大的人口流动之一,它对东北地区乃至中国的现代化进程产生了重大而深远的影响。这场大规模移民在民国时期达到了高潮,本文以1912-1931年东北地区移民为主要研究对象,通过历史经济学分析方法,运用大量的史料考证还原东北地区农民流动的概况。通过分析这一阶段东北地区移民的规模、人口结构、地域分布、职业分布等人口特征描绘出这一时期东北地区移民的总体状况。同时,利用历史经济学方法和理论分析东北地区人口迁移的深层次原因,从土地价格、交通条件、就业机会、收入差距等方面分析东北地区人口迁徙的原因,民国时期政府的宏观政策也在一定程度上推动了东北地区人口迁徙。东北地区农民流动对东北地区乃至全国农业、经济、社会产生广泛影响,人地紧张的突出矛盾得到了有效缓解,直接推动了东北地区的农业发展和种植结构的变化,为东北地区成为我国著名的“大粮仓”奠定了基础,同时推动了东北地区工业化和城镇化的发展。东北地区人口迁徙带来的区域经济发展对于新时代乡村振兴背景下城乡融合发展,促进东北地区经济社会发展,振兴东北老工业基地具有重要的启示。     

农村婚姻移民的社会适应及性别差异初探——来自吴江的实证研究

目前国内关于农村婚姻移民的社会适应研究还处于空白。本文利用《2010年吴江市居民生活质量调查》研究中236份婚姻移民的数据,从社会性别视角出发,从主观感知、经济层面、社会关系、文化适应等方面探索农村婚姻移民的社会适应状况和性别差异。实证研究发现,婚姻移民的主观适应感较好,其总体经济适应程度要低于本地居民,在社会关系、文化等方面也仍有少数人未能融入当地生活;社会性别因素对社会适应的主观感知没有显著影响,但在社会适应的经济、社会关系、文化等不同方面存在显著的性别差异。     

生态移民经济恢复中的人力资本与社会资本失灵——基于对陕南生态移民的调查

利用在陕西省安康市5个区(县)1292户农户的调查数据,采用多元线性回归方法比较分析了生态移民户和当地农户家庭收入中人力资本和社会资本的作用特征.结果发现,在搬迁后的经济恢复过程中,生态移民户的人力资本和社会资本出现了失灵现象.与当地农户相比,人力资本中的家庭劳动力平均年龄、劳均受教育程度、家庭中有外出务工经历人数和最远足迹等因素不再是影响家庭收入的显著因素;社会资本中的通讯费用、参加专业合作协会和集体事务参与程度等因素对家庭经济收入不再具有解释作用.政府应加强对移民的培训,提升安置地劳动力市场化程度,帮助移民重构社会网络,鼓励移民建立和参加专业合作组织,给予移民和当地农户平等的待遇.     

非自愿移民、搬迁方式与能力损失

本文关注的是搬迁过程中非自愿移民可持续发展能力的损失。文章基于2007年8-9月对湖北省丹江口市、郧县和河南省淅川县24个乡镇3145户库区居民的抽样调查,实证分析发现．库区居民的可持续发展能力对于他们的经济水平和经济地位的提高有着显著的作用,这一作用对于非自愿移民群体也同样适用,不过非自愿移民群体在搬迁过程中其可持续发展能力发生了损失,能力损失的多少与移民搬迁的距离和安置的分散程度成正比。对于财富积累的影响,多次搬迁的移民能力损失最为严重：就阶层认同来说,分散外迁的移民能力损失则最多。     

俄罗斯转轨时期移民问题研究

移民问题是俄罗斯一个较为敏感的问题。从20世纪80年代后半期开始,苏联国内向国外移民的倾向日益增强。俄罗斯大多数移民外流的目的都是为了改善物质生活条件。苏联的解体和俄罗斯选择新自由主义经济发展模式使其快速与国际劳动力市场接轨,俄罗斯成为世界上一个主要的劳动力资源进口国。对于移民迁入国来说,移民的增加具有正反两方面的作用。对于俄罗斯来说,其正面影响是外来移民的迁入在很大程度上解决了某些经济部门和某些地区的劳动力短缺问题,但与此同时,外来移民的流入也引起许多社会问题的出现。     

危机背景下俄罗斯劳动移民的现状与发展

世界经济危机对俄罗斯劳动力市场产生了重大影响,俄罗斯在移民领域出台的反危机措施及对劳动移民使用许可证的规定限制了外来劳动移民进入,背离了先前免签证国家劳动移民制度自由化的方向。近年来,外来移民数量大幅下降,缩小劳动配额及对劳动移民的行政限制使非法劳动移民数量有所上升。俄罗斯人口与外来移民间的矛盾与敌视情绪上升,民族融合度低,随着经济的恢复,俄人口问题日趋严峻,外来劳动移民在俄经济中的结构性影响更趋显著,俄面临着解决外来移民合法化及形成与俄社会一体化条件的双重重任。     

地区发展、经济机会、收入回报与省际人口流动

利用最新的第六次全国人口普查数据,本文考察了省际人口流动的空间模式,发现省际人口流动呈现明显的空间聚集态势.并进一步分析地区差异对省际人口流动的影响,结果表明：作为流出地,一个地区的经济发展水平对于人口流出具有显著的阻力效应,但经济机会的多寡和经济回报的高低并无显著的影响;作为流入地,一个地区的经济发展水平对于吸引人口流入并不具有显著的影响,其“拉力”主要表现为经济机会的多寡和经济回报的高低.因地区发展不平衡短期内难以改变、经济开放性会继续增强、收入地区分化仍将存在,加上更加自由的流动环境和不断改善的交通和通讯条件,省级人口流动在局部地区集中的趋势将会进一步被强化.     

The effects of development on migration: Theoretical issues and new empirical evidence

Empirical research on the determinants of emigration from the LDCs has so far given little emphasis to the complex relationship of development and migration. Since the beginning of the 1990s several arguments have been put forth which hint at the possibility that in the early stages of development economic progress might lead to more migration, even if income differentials to the potential destination regions decrease. This paper presents these arguments and tests them for the case of migration to Germany from 86 Asian and African countries from 1981 to 1995. The results confirm the importance of financial restrictions on migration, migration networks, and changes in the societal structure of the sending countries as well as the existence of a home preference. The estimations also control for the political situation in the home countries and for institutional measures in the host country. Received: 18 May 1998/Accepted: 6 March 2000     

“中等收入陷阱”与中国发展道路——基于国际经验教训的视角

2010年中国人均GDP超过4 000美元,标志着正式进入上中等收入行列。文章对掉进中等收入陷阱的拉美等国家进行比较,以跨越这个陷阱并早已进入高收入行列的东亚四小龙为参照系,指出中国经济发展已经历和即将经历市场驱动、要素驱动、效率驱动和创新驱动4个阶段,以及3次跨越;目前刚进入效率驱动即上中等收入阶段;文章分析了中国在这个阶段容易掉进中等收入陷阱的各种诱因,提出避免掉进陷阱和经济转型的动力问题,认为制度、政策和基础设施构成了动力组合。     

The effects of income level,income distribution,education and urbanization on fertility rates among 28 administrative regions of China

Conflicting empirical evidence on the role of income distribution on fertility rates is the impetus for this 1982 study of providence-specific Chinese Census data, excluding Tibet. The findings support the prior thesis of Repetto but utilize the micromethods and per household income measures of the competing findings of Boulier. It is cautioned that in the Chinese analysis equal income distribution depresses fertility, but China may not reflect world wide patterns. China did not have until recently a market incentive system, and there are income measurement problems. The data are per capita economic output not per capita income, and those high output areas which did not produce low fertility may actually have had households with low incomes. The importance of this research is in establishing that cross-province data are a useful tool in understanding the influence of income distribution on fertility. As with most developing countries, women's education, for instance, at least junior high education explained the largest variation of fertility differences among the 28 provinces. The urbanization variable when controlling for income was positive, unlike the other developing countries. The 1949 Chinese government's spatial industrial policy encouraged urbanization and industrialization in rural areas and family planning programs such that highly urbanized provinces have low population density. A variety of variables on income level, income distribution, education, and urbanization are discussed. OLSQ regressions were generated utilizing such independent variables as output per capita in yuan (YOUTHPC80), the square of YOUTHPC80 (YOUTHPC802), YOUTHPC80 multiplied by the average family size in each province (YOUTHPH80), and the squared value of YOUTHPH80.     

The emigration of immigrants, return vs onward migration: evidence from Sweden

This study analyzes emigration propensities for natives and immigrants delineating among immigrant emigrants between return and onward migration. Results indicate that emigrants are positively selected in terms of upper education. Well-educated immigrants have a higher probability of leaving for third-country destinations than returning to countries of origin. Predicted age–income profiles for immigrants show that return migrants have higher adjusted mean income levels than non-emigrants up to the age of 40. Onward migrants have lower predicted income levels across the age distribution due to this group’s composition and relatively low employment levels in Sweden. Separate estimations by region of origin indicate that within each group, onward migrants are more positively selected then return migrants in terms of income.

粤闽浙三省新移民身份特征的比较分析

根据侨情调查和人口普查资料,通过对粤、闽、浙三省新移民出国时身份特征的比较发现．就粤、闽、浙三省新移民的自然属性来说,粤籍新移民年龄层次的多元化特点明显,性别比例平衡：浙籍新移民的年龄较集中在青壮年,但也呈现多元化的趋向,性别比例不大平衡：而闽籍新移民青壮年比例最高,性别比例失衡。就粤、闽、浙三省新移民的社会属性来说,粤籍新移民文化程度最高,浙籍次之,闽籍最低;三省新移民的职业身份都以农民、工人为主,但广东、浙江新移民职业结构的多元化特征明显,而福建新移民的职业层次相对较低。造成粤、闽、浙三省新移民身份特征的差异主要是三省侨乡不同的社会经济背景和移民传统、新移民迁移的不同途径以及目标国的移民政策。     

The Effects of Modern Treaties and Opt-In Legislation on Household Incomes in Aboriginal Communities

This paper investigates the influence of country risks, including economic, financial, and political risks, on income inequality for a broad sample of 110 countries. Our empirical results reveal that higher economic and political risks generally lead to higher inequality. Lower income country appears to have higher income inequality. Furthermore, with the consideration of the non-monotonic effect of country risk, the improvement of income distribution is only sustainable dynamically after a certain threshold level of country risk has been brought down. Policymakers should improve the level of country stability by exploring the benefits of country risk reduction in order to improve income distribution.     

A Quality of Growth Index for Developing Countries: A Proposal

This paper proposes a new quality of growth index for developing countries. The index encompasses both the intrinsic nature and social dimensions of growth, and is computed for over 90 countries for the period 1990–2011. The approach is premised on the fact that not all growth is created equal in terms of social outcomes, and that it does matter how one reaches from one level of income to another for various theoretical and empirical reasons. The paper finds that the quality of growth has been improving in the vast majority of developing countries over the past two decades, although the rate of convergence is relatively slow. At the same time, there are considerable cross-country variations across income levels and regions. Finally, empirical investigations point to the fact that main factors of the quality of growth are political stability, public pro-poor spending, macroeconomic stability, financial development, institutional quality and external factors such as FDI.     

世界人口移民新态势

20世纪中叶以来 ,世界人口移民逐渐发生变化。发展中国家移民人数明显增加 ,其中越境难民和非法入境者占主流 ,知识型移民逐年提高。而经济发达国家的澳大利亚和德国人口外迁移民也令人关注。典型的移民国家以色列仍在吸引世界各地的犹太人回到自己的祖国     

East Asian Newly Industrializing Countries: Economic Growth and Quality of Life

The world is much impressed by the rapid economic development of four Asian Tigers – Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. However, it has often been taken for granted by many people that their social development is equally satisfactory. In order to investigate whether this belief is true or not, this paper looks at the levels of social development these countries have attained. Various measures of their quality of life will be assessed. Specifically, poverty, income distribution and environmental degradation are discussed. Despite their economic success, this study has found that most tigers are plagued by problems of poverty, increasing income disparities and environmental degradation. Further, social expenditures of these countries have been too limited to eliminate or impact on these problems.