2010~2020年中国农村老年人口的工作预期寿命及其地区差异北大核心

基于2010年以来的全国人口普查和人口抽样调查数据,对中国农村老年人口的工作预期寿命及其变动趋势和地区差异进行了系统分析。研究结果表明,2010年以来,农村老年人口劳动参与水平持续下降,工作预期寿命稳步缩短,非工作预期寿命延长;这些变化存在显著的性别和地区差异,男性和农业发达、人口净流出地区的农村老年人需要面对工作预期寿命更长而晚年闲暇时长更短的双重劣势;各地区农村老年人口工作余寿在余寿中的拓展模式可以分为“安逸型”“劳逸结合型”“高负担型”“低负担型”“限制型”5种类型,所属类型与老年人的生活水平、劳动意愿、劳动能力和劳动条件紧密相关。政府和社会在为农村老年劳动者赋能的同时,应该为其提供设计合理、保障有力的经济安全网。     

中国老年人口健康预期寿命差异的分解研究

健康预期寿命是反映人群健康长寿的重要指标,健康预期寿命差异反映了一个国家或地区的健康不平等状况。利用多状态生命表分析了中国老年人口健康预期寿命在过去十余年间的趋势与变动,并通过夏普利值分解法测算了人口社会学等11类因素对老年人口健康预期寿命差异的具体贡献值。得到以下四项重要研究结论:第一,从2005年到2018年,中国老年人口健康预期寿命差异的程度略有增加,女性、农村群体相比对应群体差距始终较高;泰尔指数分解发现,组内不平等(而非组间不平等)是造成上述差异的主要原因;老年人口健康预期寿命的性别差异呈现出高龄老人缩小而低龄老人扩大的趋势。第二,婚姻状况是健康预期寿命变动最重要的影响因素,但影响程度呈现逐年下降趋势,反之,受教育程度的影响在逐年上升;进一步将11类影响因素归类后发现:"个体特征"是最重要的影响因素,"经济因素"和"行为因素"的重要性次之,"环境因素"的影响最小。第三,上述影响因素对中国老年人口健康预期寿命的影响总体呈上升趋势,分城乡、分性别后依然呈现出相同的特征。最后,各因素在不同城乡、性别、婚姻状态的群体中的影响存在异质性。     

中国人口的死亡水平及预期寿命评估——基于第六次人口普查数据的分析

本文基于2010年人口普查数据,以1981年的中国人口生命表为模型生命表对2010年的人口按龄死亡模式进行修正,测算2010年的中国人口预期寿命,对20世纪80年代以来人口死亡率的变化趋势以及性别模式进行分析。研究结果发现,2010年中国人口的死亡率下降至5.58‰;人口预期寿命达到75岁,其中男性的预期寿命超过73岁,女性预期寿命为78岁;近10年间中国人口预期寿命的增幅超过4岁,高于20世纪80年代以来的任何时期。然而,2010年的人口普查数据中婴幼儿和老年人口存在严重的死亡漏报,现有的经济利益和社会制度因素的制约对人口普查数据质量的提高提出了巨大挑战。偏高的女婴死亡率虽然较2000年有所改善,但依旧存在,对女性的社会歧视仍在威胁中国的人口安全。     

中国人口寿命性别差距的变动机制

新中国成立以后,中国人口的再生产类型由传统型转变为现代型,人口平均预期寿命不断延长,并且随着经济社会的发展,男女两性人口寿命之间的差距处于不断变动之中。在新中国成立初期,男性人口与女性人口的平均预期寿命分别是44.54岁和44.58岁,男女之间只相差0.04岁,而到2010年,男性人口与女性人口的平均预期寿命分别是72.38岁和77.37岁,男女之间相差了4.99岁。百岁及以上人口占总人口比重的男女之差也呈现出类似的变动趋势。男性人口与女性人口寿命差距的变动背后蕴含着人口发展的科学规律,即新中国的制度、法律、政策推动了男女平等观念的形成,进而促进了社会角色去性别化趋势的发展,同时,医疗卫生事业的发展成果更多惠及女性人口,最终使得女性人口寿命随社会发展愈发延长。     

教育扩张与寿命延长对就业年限变动的影响

就业时长是劳动供给与经济增长的重要变量。文章基于生命表技术，利用中国1987～2020年8次人口调查资料，测算1987～2020年中国人口平均预期寿命及其构成。研究发现：（1）随着时间的推移，中国人口平均预期就业年限持续缩短，从1987年的38.12年下降至2020年的32.97年。（2）中国人口平均预期就业年限发生了结构性缩短，平均预期就业年限占平均预期寿命的比重由1987年的55.35%下降至2020年的40.81%。这一方面受教育扩张和在学年限延长（从1990年的8.50年上升至2020年的15.51年）的影响，另一方面与法定退休年龄固定不变，以及预期寿命显著延长有关。（3）中国人口老年预期就业年限出现数量增长和结构性变化。（4）就业年限存在性别与城乡差异。基于上述研究发现，文章提出加快实施延迟退休、教育改革等对策建议。     

中国人口预期寿命预测的Double-Gap方法及其改进

文章通过引入灰色预测GM(1,1)模型改进Double-Gap方法对寿命差距进行建模,并将预测结果与传统Double-Gap方法、Lee-Carter模型和贝叶斯分层模型进行比较,以探寻适合中国人口预期寿命预测的科学方法。研究结果表明:(1)从建模原理看,Double-Gap方法不仅能在建模中将中国人口预期寿命与人类最优表现预期寿命进行关联,还能避免Lee-Carter模型等间接预测法中死亡模式固定的缺陷,同时方法客观、可操作性较强。(2)从模型的拟合与短期预测效果看,改进Double-Gap方法具有较小的平均绝对百分误差,并能有效弥补Lee-Carter模型在人口预期寿命预测中出现的过拟合问题。(3)从模型长期预测效果看,Lee-Carter模型和贝叶斯分层模型在预测中国人口预期寿命时较为保守,而Double-Gap方法预测的中国人口预期寿命能保持与最优表现预期寿命之间的合理变动趋势,并且改进D-G方法预测的出生人口平均预期寿命增长趋势的斜率值小于传统D-G方法,能够更好地反映出人口死亡率降低到一定程度后寿命增长减速的趋势。     

关于我国老年人口界定标准的一点思考

在对我国老年人口界定标准进行梳理的基础上,本文根据历次人口普查统计资料分析了60岁及65岁两个界定口径下我国老年人口规模及比重的变动情况;利用预期寿命及健康状况的数据,分析了60岁及65岁两个年龄节点时的余寿及占出生预期寿命的比重及健康预期寿命.本文认为,由于相对预期寿命及健康状况发生了变化,所以我国老年人口的界定标准需要做出调整,要从主观上改变人们对"老年"的界定标准,而不是被动地"延长退休时间"以增加劳动力的数量.     

中老年人无认知障碍预期寿命研究

文章基于2011～2018年“中国健康与养老追踪调查”数据，采用Markov模型和多状态生命表方法，对中老年人无认知障碍预期寿命进行测量。研究结果显示，随年龄增长，中老年人无认知障碍预期寿命占平均预期寿命的比重不断降低，而认知障碍预期寿命占比不断升高，80岁及以上人口认知障碍预期寿命占比超过50%；相对于身体受损，中老年人认知障碍获得改善的概率较高，但仅限于状态逐级逆转，由重度障碍直接恢复至基本健康的概率较小；女性中老年人无认知障碍预期寿命占平均预期寿命的比重小于男性，其平均预期寿命的延长主要表现为认知障碍持续时间的增加，且随时间推移认知障碍预期寿命占平均预期寿命比重的性别差异呈扩大趋势。研究结论为预防老年人认知障碍、建立完善的老年人护理服务体系和发展长期护理保险制度提供了政策启示。     

中国老年人的空巢时间有多长?

在中国人口老龄化过程中,随着空巢老人比重的持续上升,老年人在空巢状态度过的时间也在不断延长.文章使用中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS) 2011、2013年的数据和多状态生命表法,估计60岁及以上老年人的预期寿命和空巢预期寿命,及其性别、城乡和受教育程度差异.结果表明,中国老年人整个老年期中超过一半的余寿都处在空巢状态;女性老年人的空巢预期寿命高于男性老年人;农村老年人的空巢预期寿命高于城市老年人;而受教育水平越高,老年人空巢预期寿命也越长.另外,老年人的空巢预期寿命与他们当前所处居住状态有很大关系,当前处在空巢状态的老年人的空巢预期寿命及其占余寿比重都远远高于处于非空巢状态的老年人.     

主观预期寿命研究的回顾与展望

主观预期寿命不同于人口平均预期寿命,是指个人预期自己可能会活到的年龄,是对个体所感知的剩余寿命的量化。国内关于预期寿命的研究多集中于平均预期寿命,而对主观预期寿命关注较少。人口平均预期寿命在国家宏观政策的制度中发挥重要作用,而主观预期寿命在微观层面对个体决策和行为的影响也不容忽视。通过对国内外相关文献的回顾,全面梳理了有关主观预期寿命研究的三个重要内容：第一,阐释主观预期寿命的概念、特征和测量方法,总结出了主观预期寿命的重要特征——差异性、不稳定性和可干预性,概述了现有研究在数据类型和来源上的特征,并说明其研究过程中可能存在的诸多问题,对未来相关研究的设计能够科学合理、减少偏差有重要参考意义;第二,归纳出主观预期寿命的五大影响因素,包括个人/遗传因素、健康行为因素、经济因素、心理因素和文化因素;第三,讨论了主观预期寿命的三大研究领域,包括健康与医疗卫生领域、退休与养老领域和经济与消费领域的重要研究内容。基于对相关文献的梳理,在指出现有研究不足之处的同时,提出未来研究可进一步探索的六个方向,为扩展国内对主观预期寿命的探索及其在人口学、社会学和管理学等领域的研究提供了借鉴和启示。     

Differentials in divorce in maryland

The basic data needed for measurement of the risks of termination of the legal relationship of marriage by characteristics of the marital partners are not available at this time for the United States because the national divorce registration area includes less than half the States. Special studies based on selected census data or the records of marriages and divorces occurring in one State or community have provided much of the valuable but limited information at hand. Statistics for individual States are subject to substantial bias as a consequence of inter-State migration between time of marriage and time of divorce, but they must serve as a basic data source until national reporting has improved. A record linkage study was undertaken which tied marriages occurring in the State of Maryland in 1959 with divorces occurring in the State in the years 1959–66. Relative, not actual, divorce risks by race, age at marriage, and previous marital status were calculated for couples with at least one partner an in-State resident at the time of marriage. The dissolution rate was higher for whites than for nonwhites. Marriages contracted by persons at very youthful ages and by persons who had been married previously were found subject to greater than average risks of dissolution through divorce.     

城市计划生育技术服务方式创新--南京市玄武区政府购买计划生育技术服务的实践

建立政府牵头、计卫联手、资源共享的计划生育技术服务体系 ,开展以知识普及、知情选择、随访服务、咨询指导、健康促进为主要内容的计划生育避孕节育和生殖保健优质服务 ,最大限度地满足社区育龄群众在计划生育和生殖保健方面的需求 ,是城市计划生育技术服务改革发展的方向1 。近几年 ,南京市玄武区计划生育局在区委、区政府的领导以及省市计生委的支持下 ,根据新时期城市计划生育工作改革发展要求 ,积极推进政府计划生育部门的职能转变 ,探索计划生育技术服务方式的改革创新 ,尝试依托社区医疗卫生和妇幼保健服务网络 ,由政府购买计划生育…     

Major Tasks in Health and Family Planning in China in 2015

On January 12,2015,at the regular press briefing of National Health and Family Planning Commission(NHFPC),NHFPC reported the major tasks in health and family planning in China in 2015.The details are as follows:In-depth Development of Medical and Health System Reform In-depth Development of Medical and Health System Reform.     

Increases in childlessness in New Zealand

New Zealand’s fertility fell below the theoretical replacement level (2.1 births per woman) for the first time in recorded history in 1978. It has hovered at or below replacement level ever since. The result, an impression of relative stability, belies changes taking place. Data from the 1981, 1996 and 2006 censuses show a pattern of delayed childbearing and increased childlessness. In a little over 30 years, childlessness has shifted from being almost entirely a consequence of a couple’s infecundity to being as frequently a result of a woman’s life choices. The steady rises in childlessness recorded by successive cohorts suggest that childlessness is already having a significant effect on New Zealand fertility. Patterns in characteristics of those women choosing not to start families, as well as subtle differences in these patterns between New Zealand and other developed nations, suggest that there is a significant potential for childlessness to cause a more dramatic shift in New Zealand’s total fertility rate. This analysis examines growth in childlessness in relation to marital status, country of birth, ethnicity, regional and urban differentials, religion, and educational attainment of women who were childless at the 1981, 1996 and 2006 censuses.

Shifts in Reproductive Patterns in China

The People's Republic of China, during the second half of the twentieth century, has been repeatedly affected by social and political upheavals associated with government policies. These have produced strong but unexpected impacts on Chinese demographic patterns. Many of these policies are of the sorts that alter reproductive costs and benefits. This study examines patterns in Hebei, Shaanxi, and Shanghai, three provinces with differing ecological, geographic, and economic characteristics. Government policies affected the three populations differentially; this was evident at both aggregate and individual levels. The Great Leap Forward and subsequent famine created higher birth deficits and mortality among the largely rural populations of Hebei and Shaanxi than the more urban Shanghai. In contrast, the Cultural Revolution and family planning resulted in lower fertility levels for women in Shanghai. The population history of China during the second half of last century thus reflects strong state interventions in the lives of its citizens. Government policies, along with regional variations in geographic, social, and economic conditions, strongly influence individual access to resources in China. Variations in timing and intensity of women's reproductive patterns reflect differential access to resources and subsequent trade-offs.     

Materialism in Pedagogy Students in Chile

Many studies have used Richins and Dawson’s (J Consum Res 19: 303–316, 1992) Material Values Scale (MVS), applying it to different types of populations that exhibit a particular psychometric behavior, and showing little stability in their factorial structure. In the present study, 1,070 pedagogy students from the northern, central and southern regions of Chile answered the MVS. This sample was randomly divided in two. Using the first sub-sample (N = 539), an exploratory factorial analysis was carried out, from which a structure of nine items was grouped into two factors called “Social Success” and “Personal Happiness”, which presented adequate reliability. Later, with the second sub-sample (N = 531), the factorial structure indicated above was put to the test through a confirmatory factorial analysis. The data from the model show that the scale contains 8 items in total, grouped into two dimensions. The factorial loads are significant at the level of 1 %, which indicates that the 2-factor structure can be confirmed. Finally—using the proposed structure—the presence of the students’ material values was evaluated.     

论西部开发中的城市发展问题

本文在对近20年来我国城市发展进行回顾与反思的基础上,提出了西部制定城市发展战略和选择城市发展道路的基本原则以及若干城市发展对策措施.     

Trends in life expectancy in wellbeing

Objectives: This paper describes anddiscusses trends in life expectancy inwellbeing between 1989 and 1998.Methods: Data on wellbeing by theBradburn Affect Balance Scale is obtained fromthe Netherlands Continuous Health InterviewSurveys for the calendar years from 1989 to1998. Using Sullivan's method, life expectancyin wellbeing is calculated.Results: For males at the age of 16, lifeexpectancy in wellbeing increases significantlyfrom 52.7 years in 1989 (90.1% of the totallife expectancy) to 54.4 years in 1998(90.8%). This increase is almost completelycaused by the increase in total lifeexpectancy. For females at the age of 16, lifeexpectancy in wellbeing raises significant from54.4 years in 1989 (84.1%) to 56.2 years in1998 (86.3%). This increase is almostcompletely caused by a decrease in the numberof years in a state of distress.For both males and females at the age of 65,the significant increase of life expectancy inwellbeing exceeds the increase in total lifeexpectancy and is mainly caused by the decreasein number of years in distress.Conclusion: Contrary to life expectancyin good perceived health and to disability freelife expectancy – which show a decreasing trend– the overall wellbeing of the population isincreasing. It seems that aspects in human lifethat contribute to wellbeing or quality of lifeother than physical health are gaining inimportance. This makes life expectancy inwellbeing a less appropriate instrument tomonitor changes in population health, but auseful instrument to measure population qualityof life.     

Changes in Living Standards and Depopulation in Latvia in the 1990s

Social Indicators Research -     

"非典"期间全国农村地区跨省流入人口调查数据分析

在2003年抗击非典的关键时期,国家人口和计划生育委员会进行了全国农村地区跨省流入人口的调查.本文着重分析这项调查所获得的数据,并对数据的一致性做出说明.既揭示了我国农村流动人口的基本特征和非典时期农村人口流动的规模和流向特点,又反映了非典对这一时期全国人口的流动所产生的影响,同时展示了我国抗击非典工作在农村地区所取得的成绩.