美国北极科学外交及其对中国的启示

对北极事务的科学探索以及对北极问题的科学认知是有效应对北极问题的基石，科学外交是国际社会参与北极治理的新形式。为维护北极权益、巩固北极伙伴关系以及在大国竞争中获得优势，美国通过发布科学报告、签署科学合作协定、主办国际科学多边会议等方式在北极地区践行主体多元化、形式多样化和领域多面化的北极科学外交。美国北极科学外交的开展一方面维护和拓展了其在北极地区的国家利益，但是另一方面也使美国北极科研活动受制于北极地缘政治竞争态势。面对美国将北极科学外交“工具化”的趋势，中国应在加强自身科研能力的同时，通过开展双轨科学外交，建立北极科研数据中心网络，积极参与国际北极科研组织等方式，进一步拓展和维护在北极地区的合法权益并推动北极事务的善治。     

北极航道：欧盟的政策目标和外交实践

气候变暖和海冰的快速融化向世界展示了北极航道开发的经济前景。经济上高度依赖贸易和海上运输的欧盟对参与北极事务和北极航道开发给予了高度关注,同时也面临着北极国家和北极理事会一定程度的排斥。欧盟充分利用北极多层级治理结构的特点,开展多支点外交,将自身在北极的利益与北极生态环境保护和北极治理过程有机地结合在一起,将自己塑造成公共产品提供者;同时,以市场和投资为手段使自己成为北极经济和社会发展重要的合作者。中国与欧盟在北极事务上具有许多类似的战略利益和外交立场,欧盟的经验值得借鉴。     

奥巴马第二任期美国北极政策的调整及其影响

随着北极地区的形势变迁,奥巴马自第二任期以来加大了对北极事务的关注和北极政策的调整与落实。在2013年颁布《北极地区国家战略》的基础上,美国进一步整合和优化了北极事务机构和决策体制,并推动北极气候治理以引领北极事务议程。奥巴马政府的此番调整有其深刻的原因:北极地缘政治重要性的提升,美国担任北极理事会轮值主席国引领北极事务议程的雄心,以及美国力图实现以其为主导的北极地区新秩序等目标。奥巴马政府尤其重视提升国内北极事务决策体制的效力,加强北极战略的落实以及重视北极地区的安全利益。随着奥巴马任期即将结束,其北极政策的遗产以及美国北极政策的走向值得关注。     

竞争性抵制:美国对“冰上丝绸之路”的拒阻思维与战略构建

推动"冰上丝绸之路"建设,应高度关注美国的北极战略立场。北极作为美国全球战略的重要区域和中国"一带一路"倡议的历史性延伸,集聚着两国战略资源的持续投放。在中美结构性矛盾逐渐升级的背景下,特朗普政府的北极战略致力于提升美国在北极地区的竞争优势,维护美国的北极利益,限制域外国家深入参与北极事务,最终构建从印度洋到北冰洋的对华战略包围圈。竞争性抵制的拒阻思维,是当前美国政府应对"冰上丝绸之路"的决策必然。但囿于经济实力、战略资源等方面的制约,美国选择与盟国联合拒阻中国参与北极事务,相应的战略构建为"冰上丝绸之路"带来了不稳定因素。北极地缘政治经济格局有可能出现中俄主导的以东北航道为基础的"冰上丝绸之路",与美加主导的以西北航道为基础的"北美北极走廊"并存的趋势。     

格陵兰:丹麦北极战略转型中的锚点?

丹麦在北极事务中具有较强的影响力,是冰上丝绸之路的沿线国家。格陵兰是丹麦王国参与北极事务的地理依据,以及实施北极战略的基石。如今,格陵兰成为一个内政完全独立,只有防务、外交事务暂由丹麦代管的过渡性政治实体。丹麦2016年出台的《变革时期的丹麦外交与防务》和《国防部未来在北极的任务》,强调了丹麦王国作为"北极超级大国"的地位,标志着丹麦北极战略从温和保守向主动进取转变。丹麦北极战略的转型,既是北极地缘政治格局发生深刻变化的必然结果,更来源于丹麦王国内部的分裂危机。抓牢格陵兰这一战略锚点,坚持"丹麦王国是不可分割的单一行为体",是丹麦北极战略的奠基石。     

创造性介入：中国参与北极地区事务的条件与路径探索

“创造性介入”是中国学者在新时期提出来的一种中国外交新理念，具有重要的理论创新价值。作为一个“近北极”国家，中国需要对北极事务实施“创造性介入”。当前北极地区的现状为中国“创造性介入”提供了活动空间，中国有能力、也有意愿介入北极地区事务，并正在进行身份、制度、技术等路径的探索。“创造性介入”的引入，有力地提升了中国极地外交水平。促进了世界极地事业的发展，其“实践性”和“建设性”的理论特色，为中国和平崛起、建设海洋强国提供了一种新思考。     

北约与北极——兼论相关国家对北约介入北极的立场

北极拥有丰富的资源和航运潜力,其潜在的安全威胁也在逐步显现。作为拥有5个北极国家的军事政治组织,北约一方面希望在北极发挥重要作用,另一方面却未能推出统一的北极战略或政策。本文在分析8个北极国家对北约介入北极的立场后发现,内部难以达成一致和外部存在压力两方面原因,造成了北约对待介入北极态度的现状。尽管如此,北约确实有在北极发挥作用的主观意愿和客观需求。因此,北约在短期内不会高调介入北极,但可能会寻求低调发挥实质性作用。中国在北极安全问题上最好采取"冷静观察,有所作为"的态度。     

国家利益视角下的中国北极身份

在全球气候变化和北极暖化的影响下,北极问题日益成为国际政治与经济关注的焦点。在逻辑上,中国北极身份决定其北极利益,而经济利益是北极利益的阶段性特征。"非北极国家"和"近北极国家"身份并不能满足北极经济利益特征要求,相比之下,"利益攸关方"则具有一定的实用性和可塑性。但是,中国"强双边外交+弱多边外交"北极外交实践模式与北极问题之间存在应对缺口。鉴于此,从不同层面优化北极身份是实现北极经济利益与"和谐北极"目标的有益途径。     

中国北极安全法律保障研究

北极气候与环境正在经历快速变化的过程,北极的地缘政治和法律问题也随着气候环境变化的影响与响应变得十分敏感。争取并维护我国在北极地区的权益,科学、合理开发利用北极地区的资源,促进我国经济社会可持续发展,将越来越受到人们的重视与关注。为此,我们必须对我国北极安全法律保障问题进行评估,构造“中俄北极合作组织”的法律框架。本文认为,在中国北极安全法律保障问题上要充分行使在北极事务活动中的参与权,保持我国在北极航道上的航行存在,从北极气候变化直接造成我国气候灾害的情况入手,努力将军事问题和经济问题分开考虑和解决,围绕着北极争议的共同点来寻找我国北极安全法律保障的切入点。     

中国北极外交:实践、理念与进路

北极外交是中国参与北极事务的重要方式,也是推进中国海洋强国建设的重要组成部分。中国的北极外交经历了早期的以北极科学研究以及北极科学合作为主导的北极科学外交阶段、21世纪初以加入北极理事会为代表的争取"身份承认"的北极身份外交阶段。在"身份升级"之后,中国在北极事务中的参与进入到"怎么做"的阶段,中国的北极外交也应适时作出调整。在进一步推进北极外交的实践中,首先需要厘清不同阶段中国在北极地区的不同利益,在此基础上制定北极外交战略,对北极外交活动进行统领性的战略规划,进而加强不同领域和部门之间的机制协调,充分调动和发挥多层面行为体在北极外交中的能动性,构建多主体、多领域、立体式、双向度的北极外交实践模式,进一步提升中国在北极事务中的"实质性存在",最大限度地拓展中国在北极地区的合法权益。     

排他性开放:北极理事会的“门罗主义”逻辑

北极理事会的扩容标志着北极地区国际组织进入建章立制的关键期,但排他性开放仍是北极理事会扩容的本质。制度参与是中国参与北极治理最现实、最有效的途径,2013年中国获得北极理事会永久观察员国的身份,并未根本改变被边缘化的地位,这是因北极理事会推行的"门罗主义"所致。北极理事会并非是全球性的制度设计,而是北极八国以"享有决策权"进一步强化其主导权,推动"域内自理化"趋势的发展。以航运为核心的中国北极权益的护持需高度重视这一趋势,并制定有效的应对策略。     

美国两洋同盟演化与当代国际格局转型的再思考

美国借助大西洋同盟和亚太同盟介入或主导了几次重大国际事件,证明了"当代国际格局多极化趋势明显"是伪命题。当代国际格局变化的两种趋势中,三支主要力量的角逐为美国两洋同盟的维持与优化提供了结构性空间;冷战遗留问题为美国两洋同盟提供了丰厚的历史根基与现实条件;美国推进全球战略重心东移,是通过两洋同盟的运行而实施的,体现了当今国际格局的变化态势;美国两洋同盟在国际格局变动中的对接与实践,深化了资本主义同盟的冷战思维。从外交方法上看,冷战思维不是国际行为体单方面能够消除的,它是行为体之间理解和认同的一种外交思维方法;单方面摒弃冷战思维外交将受到对方的困扰甚至陷入困境。     

COI Policies: Tax Dollars Should Not Be Used to Fund U.S. Institutions Not Making the Grade

Over two billion dollars was awarded by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) in research funding from 2010 to March 2012 to institutions receiving a grade of “C,” “D,” or “F” on their conflict of interest policies, as determined by the American Medical Student Association's scorecard on conflict of interest policies. More institutional oversight is needed with regard to assuring conflict of interest policies at U.S. research institutions are adequate. As stewards of public funds, HHS should require a minimum standard which institutional conflict of interest policies should meet, beyond current regulatory requirements, before granting funding.     

Popular economic narratives advancing the longest U.S. expansion 2009–2019

The U.S. economic expansion since 2009 is the longest on record since 1854, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee. This paper seeks to understand this phenomenon better by looking at the time paths of popular narratives over this interval, of stories that people have been telling that offer clues into their economic behavior. Six constellations of narratives are studied, identified by keywords “Great Depression,” “secular stagnation,” “sustainability,” “housing bubble,” “strong economy,” and “save more.”     

Alternative Methods to Enumerate Data on Race in Puerto Rico*

Nationalist discourse concerning race in Puerto Rico generally states that residents are of the same racially mixed heritage—a combination of Spanish, West African, and indigenous ancestry of various degrees. However, literature and casual observations suggest that the population is characterized by greater variation in physical appearances than what is posited by “admixture” discourse. Moreover, and further complicating the understanding of race, 2010 U.S. Census data show that over 75 percent of Puerto Ricans self‐identified as “White, alone,” and that only 3.3 percent of respondents indicated “Two or More Races.” Researchers, employers, and governmental agencies attempting to address issues of inequality, discrimination, and residential segregation have had to rely on existing U.S. Census data for analysis. Thus, the need for an alternative data collection process that can be used for various forms of socioeconomic analysis has become evident. The objective of this study was to develop two alternative instruments that emphasized a locally suited, culturally grounded, and standardizable conceptual foundation for the purpose of establishing more representative racial statistics in Puerto Rico. Methods included the administration of 248 copies of these alternative forms, in addition to a replica of the current U.S. Census form, to residents in Bayamón, a city located within the greater San Juan metropolitan area. Results showed that participants were less inclined to self‐identify as “White, alone” when given these alternative instruments, and that fewer individuals resorted to the selection of “Other” for race. In addition, observer‐reported data indicated that the sample was less white when compared to participant‐reported results. The conclusion was that both alternative instruments were considerably more effective in gauging racial composition than the 2010 U.S. Census form.     

Office of Economic Opportunity: U.S.A.

The Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO), was created at the height of Lyndon Johnson's “Great Society” anti-poverty programmes. It represented a degree of radical activism that reached its culmination in the 89th Congress (1965-66) and indeed has never been repeated: that Congress was perhaps the only genuinely left-liberal one this century (outside the New Deal era, at any rate). The OEO's social policies were tied to a particular theory of public and social administration: that a “rival” federal agency to the existing ones (Health, Education and Welfare, now Health and Human Services; Housing, and Urban Development, et al) could escape their conservative norms. Both at the federal level and in the “field” agencies it spanned to implement its programmes, the new approach to social administration was to by-pass traditional channels. This short, illustrative rather than definitive article, examines how such an approach was undermined by both the U.S. political structure and by traditional “politics as usual”. It is but a snapshot of the era. However, it hints at the general problems that such approaches to “by-passing” traditional agencies and attempting to develop a new autonomy in social reform may have in many countries, especially those with decentralized political structures. For, while decentralized politics provides opportunities as well as barriers to reformers seeking to by-pass traditional elites (which themselves tend to be decentralized, mirroring political structures), it is suggested here that the balance sheet will tend to be negative from the viewpoint of reformist social administration.     

Research Misconduct Definitions Adopted by U.S. Research Institutions

In 2000, the U.S. federal government adopted a uniform definition of research misconduct as fabrication, falsification, or plagiarism (FFP), which became effective in 2001. Institutions must apply this definition of misconduct to federally-funded research to receive funding. While institutions are free to adopt definitions of misconduct that go beyond the federal standard, it is not known how many do. We analyzed misconduct policies from 183 U.S. research institutions and coded them according to thirteen different types of behavior mentioned in the misconduct definition. We also obtained data on the institution’s total research funding and public vs. private status, and the year it adopted the definition. We found that more than half (59%) of the institutions in our sample had misconduct policies that went beyond the federal standard. Other than FFP, the most common behaviors included in definitions were “other serious deviations” (45.4%), “significant or material violations of regulations” (23.0%), “misuse of confidential information” (15.8%), “misconduct related to misconduct” (14.8%), “unethical authorship other than plagiarism” (14.2%), “other deception involving data manipulation” (13.1%), and “misappropriation of property/theft” (10.4%). Significantly more definitions adopted in 2001 or later went beyond the federal standard than those adopted before 2001 (73.2% vs. 26.8%), and significantly more definitions adopted by institutions in the lower quartile of total research funding went beyond the federal standard than those adopted by institutions in the upper quartiles. Public vs. private status was not significantly associated with going beyond the federal standard.