A weighted polynomial regression method for local fitting of spatial data

Typically, parametric approaches to spatial problems require restrictive assumptions. On the other hand, in a wide variety of practical situations nonparametric bivariate smoothing techniques has been shown to be successfully employable for estimating small or large scale regularity factors, or even the signal content of spatial data taken as a whole.We propose a weighted local polynomial regression smoother suitable for fitting of spatial data. To account for spatial variability, we both insert a spatial contiguity index in the standard formulation, and construct a spatial-adaptive bandwidth selection rule. Our bandwidth selector depends on the Gearys local indicator of spatial association. As illustrative example, we provide a brief Monte Carlo study case on equally spaced data, the performances of our smoother and the standard polynomial regression procedure are compared.This note, though it is the result of a close collaboration, was specifically elaborated as follows: paragraphs 1 and 2 by T. Sclocco and the remainder by M. Di Marzio. The authors are grateful to the referees for constructive comments and suggestions.     

Nonparametric Estimation of Volatility Function with Variable Bandwidth Parameter

In this article, we introduce a new method for the volatility function estimation of continuous-time diffusion process dX _t  = μ(X _t )dt + σ(X _t )dW _t , which is based on combining the idea of local linear smoother and variable bandwidth. We give the expressions for the conditional MSE and MISE of the estimator and obtain the optimal variable bandwidth. An explicit formula for the optimal variable bandwidth is presented by minimizing the MISE, which extends the related results in Fan and Gijbels (1992 Fan , J. Q. , Gijbels , I. ( 1992 ). Variable bandwidth and local linear regression smoother . Ann. Statist. 20 ( 4 ): 2008 – 2036 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), etc. Finally, some simulations show that the performance of the proposed estimator with optimal variable bandwidth is often much better than that of the local linear estimator with invariable bandwidth.     

Corrected p-values for tests based on estimated nuisance parameters

In some situations the asymptotic distribution of a random function T _n() that depends on a nuisance parameter is tractable when has known value. In that case it can be used as a test statistic, if suitably constructed, for some hypothesis. However, in practice, often needs to be replaced by an estimator S _n. In this paper general results are given concerning the asymptotic distribution of T _n(S _n) that include special cases previously dealt with. In particular, some situations are covered where the usual likelihood theory is nonregular and extreme values are employed to construct estimators and test statistics.     

Bandwidth selection in pre-smoothed particle filters

For the purpose of maximum likelihood estimation of static parameters, we apply a kernel smoother to the particles in the standard SIR filter for non-linear state space models with additive Gaussian observation noise. This reduces the Monte Carlo error in the estimates of both the posterior density of the states and the marginal density of the observation at each time point. We correct for variance inflation in the smoother, which together with the use of Gaussian kernels, results in a Gaussian (Kalman) update when the amount of smoothing turns to infinity. We propose and study of a criterion for choosing the optimal bandwidth h in the kernel smoother. Finally, we illustrate our approach using examples from econometrics. Our filter is shown to be highly suited for dynamic models with high signal-to-noise ratio, for which the SIR filter has problems.     

An orthogonal arrays approach to robust parameter designs methodology

Robust parameter design methodology was originally introduced by Taguchi [14 Taguchi, G. 1986. Introduction to Quality Engineering: Designing Quality Into Products and Process, Tokyo: Asian Productivity Organization.  [Google Scholar]] as an engineering methodology for quality improvement of products and processes. A robust design of a system is one in which two different types of factors are varied; control factors and noise factors. Control factors are variables with levels that are adjustable, whereas noise factors are variables with levels that are hard or impossible to control during normal conditions, such as environmental conditions and raw-material properties. Robust parameter design aims at the reduction of process variation by properly selecting the levels of control factors so that the process becomes insensitive to changes in noise factors. Taguchi [14 Taguchi, G. 1986. Introduction to Quality Engineering: Designing Quality Into Products and Process, Tokyo: Asian Productivity Organization.  [Google Scholar] 15 Taguchi, G. 1987. System of Experimental Design, Vol. I and II, New York: UNIPUB.  [Google Scholar]] proposed the use of crossed arrays (inner–outer arrays) for robust parameter design. A crossed array is the cross-product of an orthogonal array (OA) involving control factors (inner array) and an OA involving noise factors (outer array). Objecting to the run size and the flexibility of crossed arrays, several authors combined control and noise factors in a single design matrix, which is called a combined array, instead of crossed arrays. In this framework, we present the use of OAs in Taguchi's methodology as a useful tool for designing robust parameter designs with economical run size.     

Robust classification of high-dimensional data using artificial neural networks

This paper is concerned with the application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to a practical, difficult and high-dimensional classification problem, discrimination between selected under-water sounds. The application provides for a particular comparison of the relative performance of time-delay as opposed to fully connected network architectures, in the analysis of temporal data. More originally, suggestions are given for adapting the conventional backpropagation algorithm to give greater robustness to mis-classification errors in the training examples—a particular problem with underwater sound data and one which may arise in other realistic applications of ANNs. An informal comparison is made between the generalisation performance of various architectures in classifying real dolphin sounds when networks are trained using the conventional least squares minimisation norm, L ₂, that of least absolute deviation, L ₁, and that of the Huber criterion, which involves a mixture of both L ₁ and L ₂. The results suggest that L ₁ and Huber may provide performance gains. In order to evaluate these robust adjustments more formally under controlled conditions, an experiment is then conducted using simulated dolphin sounds with known levels of random noise and misclassification error. Here, the results are more ambiguous and significant interactions are indicated which raise issues for future research.