2000——2020年我国各级教育需求预测及建议

文章根据 2 0 0 0年人口普查数据 ,运用人口预测软件对我国 2 0 0 0— 2 0 2 0年各级普通教育阶段在校生人数和教师需求量进行了预测 ,并对未来小学在校生的减少、初中在校生的波动、高中阶段和高等教育在校生的不断增加 ,以及由此引起对教师需求量的变化等提出了对策建议。     

广东省高等教育发展方案研究

广东以其特有的经济优势吸引着大量的省外流动人口来粤务工和经商。 2 0 0 0年全国第五次人口普查资料显示 ,广东省成为全国第三人口大省 ,其中人口增长主要表现为机械增长。本文以“五普”数据为基础 ,分别预测了广东省 2 0 0 0 - 2 0 10年常住人口和户籍人口中 18- 2 2岁高等教育适龄人口数 ,制定了广东省 2 0 0 5年、2 0 10年高等教育发展方案。同时 ,建议将省外流动人口纳入广东高等教育发展的新视野 ,转变教育观念 ,调整教育发展战略 ,构建终身教育体系 ,促进教育、人口、经济、社会的和谐发展。     

中国高龄老人生活自理能力多变量多状态生命表分析

基于中国高龄老人健康与长寿纵向调查的 1 998年、 2 0 0 0年和 2 0 0 2年数据和多变量风险回归模型 ,本文用曾—顾—兰德改良多状态生命表方法从性别、城乡居住地、民族、文化程度、经济自立状况、婚姻状况和居住安排角度计算并讨论了中国高龄老人的生活自理预期寿命     

2000年中国第五次人口普查漏报评估及年中人口估计

20 0 0年第五次全国人口普查公报称普查漏报率为 1 81 % ,据此推算漏报人口 2 2 91万人 ,然而 ,这些人口的性别、年龄等人口特征不祥 ,这给人们研究社会经济发展中的实际问题带来非常大的不便。本研究就是在准确估计 1 990～ 2 0 0 0年分性别、年龄死亡概率的情况下 ,利用年龄移算方法对 1 990年和 2 0 0 0年两次人口普查的漏报率给予评估 ,并对漏报人口进行年龄、性别拆分 ,从而较为准确地估计得到 2 0 0 0年年中年龄性别人口 ,以为科研或了解我国人口发展状况之用     

提高认识 标本兼治阳东县“关爱女孩行动”的思考

20 0 3年 4月被国家确定为全国首批“关爱女孩行动”试点后 ,阳东县高度重视 ,抓住宣传教育、综合治理、利益导向、性别监测等四个环节 ,落实标本兼治措施 ,一步一个脚印 ,扎扎实实地推进“关爱女孩行动”试点工作 ,取得较好的效果。至 2 0 0 4年底 ,该县“关爱女孩”的社会舆论氛围初步形成 ,出生人口性别比比 2 0 0 3年下降 8个点 ,比 2 0 0 2年下降 1 2个点。一、加强组织领导 ,强化宣传教育 ,构筑全社会齐抓共管、共同参与的良好局面该县充分认识到 ,“关爱女孩行动”意义广泛深远 ,涉及多部门、多单位 ,要做好这项工作 ,党委、政府必须…     

对中国老年贫困人口的估计

利用中国老龄科研中心 2 0 0 0年 1 2月组织的“中国城乡老年人口状况一次性抽样调查”数据 ,经过加权处理后对中国 ,中国的城市和农村 ,以及调查到的省、市、自治区和直辖市的贫困老年人口的比例和规模进行了估计。结果发现 ,调查的 2 0个地区中 ,老年人贫困问题最严重的地区是云南、陕西、山东、安徽和湖北 ,情况比较好的除了上海、北京和天津 3个直辖市以外 ,还有浙江、福建、黑龙江等地区。 2 0 0 0年 1 1月 1日全国贫困老年人占全部老年人口的比例为 1 7 5 % ,全国贫困老年人口总量为 2 2 74 8万人     

中国未来劳动力就业趋势研究

本文采用联合国PDPM中的“就业量 -增加值”函数法对中国未来 2 5年(2 0 0 0 - 2 0 2 5年 )中第一、二、三产业劳动力的需求状况进行了预测 ,并与劳动力供给对比 ,发现中国的高失业状况至少要持续 2 0年时间。同时本文还深入分析了失业长期存在的原因     

人口动态

我国研发投入跃居发展中国家前列。国家科技部、统计局、财政局、国家计委、经贸委、教育部、国防科工委等 7部委在 11月 2 1日宣布 ,2 0 0 0年中国科学研究与试验发展 (Ｒ＆Ｄ)投入在国内生产总值 (ＧＤＰ)中的比重达到 1% ,跃居发展中国家前列。统计表明 ,2 0 0 0年全国Ｒ＆Ｄ投入为 896亿元 ,比 1999年同比增长 17 9%。各类企业的研发投入占全国的 6 0 % ,这个比例已经接近发达国家水平。 (摘自 2 0 0 1/ 11/ 2 3中国人口报第一版同名文章。)2 0 0 1年广东ＧＤＰ增长 9 5 % ,突破万亿。根据 12月份召开的广东省计划会议的有关文件 ,广东…     

《中国优秀博硕士学位论文全文数据库》(CDMD)总体介绍

ＣＤＭＤ由中国学术期刊 (光盘版 )电子杂志社与清华同方光盘股份有限公司共同研制 ,得到了国务院学位办与全国近 30 0家博士培养单位的大力支持与协助。ＣＤＭＤ具有覆盖学科广、文献量大、收录质量高、全文收录、每日更新、使用方式灵活等特点 ,是我国最具权威的优秀博硕士学位论文全文数据库。1 简介ＣＤＭＤ覆盖理工、农林、医卫、社会科学各学科 ,精选收录全国近 30 0家博士授予单位 2 0 0 0 - 2 0 0 1年的论文全文近 30 0 0 0册 ,其中“2 11工程”高校的收录率达 80 %。ＣＤＭＤ按学科划分为 9大专辑出版 ,今后 ,每年增加博硕士论文 2…     

西部民族人口的演进与问题分析

本文利用 2 0 0 0年人口普查快速汇总的有限资料 ,对西部地区少数民族人口增长及有关省、市、区的人口文化素质和城镇化演进等进行了分析 ,并提出了一些建议     

What demographers can learn from fruit fly actuarial models and biology

Historically demographers have viewed the results of actuarial studies of nonhuman species, particularly those on invertebrates such as fruit flies, as largely irrelevant to investigations on human populations. In this paper I present life table data from large scale studies on the Mediterranean fruit fly, and show that they provide important insights into fundamental aspects of mortality relevant to human populations: the trajectory of mortality at older ages, sex mortality differentials, the concept of maximal life span, and demographic heterogeneity and selection. An overriding theme of the paper is the need for demographers to acquire a heightened awareness of new developments in biology including areas such as evolutionary ecology, experimental demography, and molecular medicine.     

Marriage selection and mortality patterns: Inferences and fallacies

Researchers have long wondered whether marital-status differences in mortality arise largely from selection mechanisms or from causal processes typically known as marriage protection. Unfortunately, many investigators have relied on aggregate patterns of mortality differentials—such as age schedules of excess mortality in the single population or the relationship between the level of excess mortality and the relative size of the single population—to make inferences about the relative importance of selection and causal processes. In this paper, a simple mathematical simulation model is used to demonstrate that many inferences derived from observed patterns are simply not justified. This finding highlights the importance of prospective data for assessing the relative importance of selection and causal factors in accounting for the excess mortality of the unmarried.     

The geometric mean of the age-specific death rates as a summary index of mortality

Even though a single summary index of mortality can never replace the set of age-specific death rates, it has been found to be extremely useful for a wide variety of purposes. Such indexes are generally one of two types: aggregative indexes, such as directly standardized rates which reflect absolute differences between corresponding age-specific mortality rates; and average of relatives indexes which reflect proportional differences between those rates. The choice of index depends upon the purposes for which it is to be used, and is important as different indexes can produce very different results. While directly standardized rates are widely used, they depend upon the selection of an appropriate standard population and give disproportionately heavy weight to the high ages. Average of relatives indexes give equal weight to all ages, but are infrequently used as no index of that type has gained wide acceptability. This paper recommends the use of the geometric mean of the age-specific mortality rates as such an index, and shows that this index is readily calculable, unbiased, needs no standard population, is directly comparable to all other indexes so calculated, and accurately reflects exponential mortality patterns.     

The effect of legalization and public funding of abortion on neonatal mortality: An intervention analysis

This paper examines the impact of the legalization of abortion on neonatal mortality in the United States. Monthly time series data are used to estimate intervention models separately for the U.S. as a whole and for the States of New York and South Carolina. Legalization of abortion in 1973 is found to have no discernible impact on national neonatal mortality rates. However, results from New York and South Carolina, states in which accessibility and public funding of abortion differed markedly, suggest that abortion is significantly related to declines in neonatal mortality, particularly among nonwhites. The magnitude and timing of such impacts varied between races and states.     

Age,period, and cohort effects in demography: a review

This paper considers only the vital events of demographic measurement, the factors influencing the rate at which those events occur and then investigates the consequences of patterns of these events. It reviews the state of the art of age, period and cohort analysis for demographic dependent variables. Major examples of such analyses are given in both mortality and fertility studies. In the area of mortality the conventional approach to such analysis apears to be well suited to a wide range of applications yielding useful results. The reasons for this suitability are: early childhood experience is important in many major disease and death processes, so that cohorts are legitimately viewed as acquiring early on a certain fixed susceptibility; data sometimes stretch back far enough that stationary standards of age patterns can be developed empirically, and applied to later experience; and, logarithmic or logistic transformations linearize comparisons of age schedules or mortality so that standard statistical procedures are suitable. Applications of age, period, and cohort analysis are not always routine; external constraints are required, in the form of theoretically based and mathematically expressed age patterns of mortality, in order to distinguish effectively between period and cohort effects. A set of models of age patterns of mortality that are based on cohort as well as period experience could be constructed with useful applications. With fertility analysis the conventional approach is much less suitable. Once goal directed behavior is introduced, empirical examinations must be based on theories or assumptions about how such goals are formulated and pursued. Conventional analysis might suffice only if one is prepared to accept the assumption that all pertinent goals and strategies are formulated before the initiation of childbearing and remain unaffected by subsequent events. This assumption is untenable for modern developed populations and the forms of analysis appropriate to age period cohort investigations of fertility will have to develop along with theories of reproductive behavior.     

Recent trends in multiple-caused mortality 1968 to 1982: Age and cohort components

Declines in mortality at advanced ages have been observed recently in the United States. These declines have been related to a reduction in the risk of major circulatory diseases, such as stroke and heart disease. In this paper we examine the contribution of two additional major factors in those declines. The first is the effect of conditions associated with circulatory diseases. This effect can be examined by using multiple-cause mortality data in which all conditions reported by the physician on the death certificates are recorded. The second is the contribution of cohort mortality differentials to temporal changes. If major cohort differentials are identified, we may be able to determine if recent declines in mortality are likely to continue-and to what levels. Such insights would be useful both in improving projections of the size and age structure of the U.S. elderly population and its entitlement groups and in helping to identify future patterns of needs for preventive and other health services.     

Mobile Internet Use and Multidimensional Poverty: Evidence from A Household Survey in Rural China

The impact of specific living conditions on the population of geographically and socially segregated Roma settlements in Eastern Slovakia is considerable. They are characterized by high unemployment, lower education, poor housing and sanitary conditions, a poor quality of life, which all affects significantly their higher mortality rates and worse health status. In this paper we try to approach the problem of adverse mortality conditions and health with a deeper demographic insight. The fundamental goal of the paper is to analyse mortality in the population from Roma settlements over the past two decades using complex demographic methods such as life tables, direct standardization with the objective of eliminating differences in the age structure, single and multi-dimensional decomposition of age, sex and causes of death. We also analyse mortality using the concept of avoidable mortality. The results obtained from Roma settlements confirmed significantly worse mortality rates for both sexes. In addition, it appears that the disparities between them and the majority population are growing over time. The primary reason is the higher mortality of the youngest children and persons at post-reproductive age. Basically, all main chapters of the causes of death shorten the life expectancy of persons from Roma settlements, but cardiovascular diseases have the greatest negative impact. Conclusions obtained from the avoidable mortality analysis point to problems related to the accessibility and quality of health care, as well as the lack of interest of population from Roma settlements in their own health, along with the need for more targeted prevention and screening campaigns in this environment. Although the answers of respondents from Roma settlements to their own health confirm the deteriorating quality of health, increasing morbidity and the degree of restriction of normal daily activities with increasing age, they also point to some problems associated with the use of this approach.

     

Fertility decisions when infant survival is endogenous

There is evidence that fertility is positively correlated with infant mortality, and that a child‘s chance of surviving to maturity increases with the level of nutrition, medical care, etc. received in the early stages of life. By modelling parental decisions as a problem of choice under uncertainty, the paper shows that fertility and infant mortality are most likely to move in opposite directions if, as implicitly assumed by existing economic theories, parents believe that there is nothing they can do to improve the survival chances of their own children. By contrast, if parents realize that those chances improve with the amount they spend for the health, nutrition, etc. of each child that they put into the world, then fertility and infant mortality may move in the same direction. Under such an assumption, the model has the strong policy implication that directly death-reducing public expenditures are most effective, but stimulate population growth, at low levels of development. By contrast, at high levels of development, such expenditures tend to crowd out parental expenditures, and are a factor in fertility decline. Received: 14 October 1996 / Accepted: 28 July 1997     

Recent health trends in the Native American population

This paper reviews the changes in the health status of Native Americans since the mid-1950s, how the disease pattern differs from non-Natives, and regional differences within the Native American population. Despite some limitations, data from the Indian Health Service indicate that substantial decline in the infant mortality rate and mortality from such infectious diseases as tuberculosis and gastroenteritis has occurred. With the exception of cardiovascular diseases and cancer, the risk of death from most causes are higher among Native Americans than the total US population. Geographic variation in disease rates can be demonstrated, most notable in diabetes. The unique pattern of diseases among Native Americans reflect the interaction of environmental and genetic factors. Genetic susceptibility plays a significant role in some diseases, such as diabetes, while for others, the generally lower socioeconomic status, higher prevalence of certain health risk behaviors and lower utilization of preventive services in the Native American population are important determinants.     

Parameterizing age patterns of demographic rates with the multiexponential model schedule

"For nearly 200 years actuaries, statisticians, and demographers have sought to summarize the age pattern of mortality rates by means of a limited number of parameters. Such 'model schedules' have also been useful in representing schedules of rates other than mortality....This paper illustrates a particular general functional form for such model schedules: the multiexponential function. It discusses the changing behavior of this function as its parameters take on different values and examines the quality of the fits of this function to observed data on mortality, fertility, and migration." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1993 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America. (SUMMARY IN FRE)