Lottery Playing Amongst Youth: Implications for Prevention and Social Policy

Factors associated with lottery ticket purchases, accessibility of lottery products, and lottery playing behaviour amongst 1,072 youth (ages 10-18 years old, mean age 14 years-old) was examined. Playing the lottery was found to be the most popular gambling activity with youth reporting playing all forms of lottery tickets including draws, scratch tickets, and sports lottery tickets. Youth reported beginning to play the lottery at age 12, with scratch ticket participation being amongst the most highly reported type of lottery activity with the youngest age of onset. The vast majority of youth are aware of the legal age to purchase tickets although many believed that there should be no age requirement to purchase any form of lottery ticket. Youth, regardless of their age, reported few if any difficulties in purchasing lottery tickets. Moreover, a third of underage youth reported going to the store specifically to purchase lottery tickets with this behaviour increasing with the age of the participant. This research confirms previous findings that lottery tickets are highly accessible to underage youth despite legal prohibitions. The results provide valuable information that can be subsequently used in the development of responsible social policy and youth gambling prevention programs     

Why do people gamble? Further Canadian evidence

In previous studies attempts have been made to examine predictions derived from Brenner (1983) on the characteristics of lottery tickets buyers. The present study complements the previous ones: additional, more detailed data were found both on 93 winners of big lottery prizes and on various groups of buyers of lottery tickets. The image of the lottery ticket buyer that emerges from them is of a person who finding all other avenues of success closed because of one form or other of sudden adversity turns to lotteries as a recourse.This project was made possible through a grant (#410-82-0696) from the Social Sciences and Humanities Council of Canada and a grant from the Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales. I thank Professor H. Roy Kaplan and Victor Tremblay who have made their Canadian data set available to me, Richard Guay and Pascal Duquette for their outstanding research assistance, and Reuven Brenner, H. Roy Kaplan, and two anonymous referees for their comments.     

Children's Cognitive Perceptions of 6/49 Lottery Tickets

Recent studies have shown the high prevalence of youth gambling behavior. In particular, lottery ticket purchases among children and adolescents appear to be a highly preferred activity. Despite this fact, most research has focused on the underlying erroneous cognitions used by adults when selecting lottery tickets. This study examines the cognitive perceptions of children while engaged in selecting 6/49 lottery tickets. One hundred sixty-seven children (61 females; 106 males) from grades 3, 5, and 7 were asked to rank pre-selected 6/49 lottery tickets which were classified into a) long series, b) specific patterns, c) non equilibrated numbers, or d) perceived random selections. Children verbalized their rationale for selecting each ticket and were permitted to change the numbers on the lottery tickets they liked least in order to make them to more likely to be the winning ticket. Findings, in general, revealed small developmental differences in the types of underlying cognitive heuristics used by the children. The use of cognitive heuristics underlying the concept of randomness and the use of significant and meaningful numbers was observed to increase as children got older. Children between 9 and 11 were found to have employed the cluster heuristic more frequently than older children, ages 12–13. The results are interpreted in terms of the cognitive developmental changes in children's perceptions and the potential implication for gambling prevention programs are provided.     

SELLING TO BIASED BELIEVERS: STRATEGIES OF ONLINE LOTTERY TICKET VENDORS

We provide evidence that sellers respond to buyers' belief biases in a collective lottery betting market, by adopting sales strategies which cater to believers in the Hot Hand and Gambler's Fallacies. Lottery players on the buyer side tend to avoid buying tickets which are similar to the previous winning ticket, in accordance with the Gambler's Fallacy (Clotfelter and Cook 1993; Terrell 1994). At the same time, buyers tend to prefer purchasing tickets from previously winning sellers, despite the fully random nature of wins, in accordance with Hot‐Hand Fallacy (Croson and Sundali 2005). These behavioral biases provide an opportunity for ticket sellers to increase their expected profits by adjusting features of the lottery portfolios they sell. We find that sellers make changes to their portfolio size, commission rate, self‐purchase rate, and number choices in response to previous events, in ways that are consistent with responding to the Hot‐Hand Fallacy belief, and which also lend a degree of support for responding to the Gambler's Fallacy belief. Our results show evidence of participants in a market accommodating their choices to the biased beliefs of other participants in order to gain an advantage in expected profits. (JEL D01, D03, D81, L86)     

Regret aversion and the reluctance to exchange lottery tickets

The current research finds that people are willing to forego a direct material gain, if that protects them from future regrets. In two experiments participants endowed with a lottery ticket were offered to exchange their ticket for another ticket from the same lottery. Even though they could receive a bonus for exchanging, many participants chose not to do so. Experiment 1 finds that a manipulation that prevented the anticipation of regret by offering the ticket in a sealed envelope made more participants exchange their ticket. Experiment 2 finds that an increased potential of regret over not-exchanging made more participants exchange as well. In both experiments the effect of the manipulation on choices is mediated by anticipated regret. The experiments show that people are willing to forego a material gain to prevent future regrets and that the reluctance to exchange lottery tickets is (partly) caused by regret aversion.     

Wer spielt, hat schon verloren?

How actors decide to value goods is a central research question in economic sociology. The demand for lottery tickets is of particular interest because it poses a specific paradox: the expected monetary value of a ticket is about half of its purchasing price. The demand for lottery tickets thus seems to be economically irrational. Nevertheless, millions of people buy national lottery tickets every week. How can there be such a large demand in this market? On the basis of representative sruvey data, we test empirical findings using four different theoretical approaches explaining the demand for lottery tickets. We show that socially mediated states of tension and network influences are strong explanatory factors. In the conclusion we discuss implications for the sociology of markets.     

Near Miss,Gambler’s Fallacy and Entrapment: Their Influence on Lottery Gamblers in Thailand

Near miss, gambler’s fallacy and entrapment are hypothesized to influence gambling behavior but their individual impact on gambling behavior and their relationships have not been investigated. This study examines the direct and mediated effects of near miss, gambler’s fallacy and entrapment on lottery gambling among Thai lottery gamblers. Two groups of 200 lottery gamblers participated in the study. One group used superstitious methods to search for lottery numbers to bet, whereas the other group simply bought their tickets from lottery stalls. The superstitious group shows higher levels of near miss, gambler’s fallacy, entrapment and lottery gambling. Three models of relationships among near miss, gambler’s fallacy, entrapment and lottery gambling were constructed using LISREL program. The model that shows a direct effect of near miss, and one that shows a mediated effect of near miss fit the data equally. The results confirm a gambler’s fallacy and entrapment as starting points in the theory of cognitive psychology of lottery gambling and the generalization of near miss in gambling motivation.     

A Test of Social Cognitive Theory Reciprocal and Sequential Effects: Hope,Superstitious Belief and Environmental Factors among Lottery Gamblers in Thailand

This study tested social cognitive theory (Bandura, 1986) hypotheses of reciprocal and sequential effects among person, environment variables and behavior. The study examined the impact of hope, superstitious belief and environmental factors on the frequency, amounts of lottery gambling and chasing of particular numbers among Thai lottery gamblers. One hundred and fifty gamblers who visited two temples in Bangkok to search for number clues before buying tickets and 150 gamblers who simply bought lottery tickets from the stalls were recruited for the study. Models were constructed to test the effect of hope, superstitious belief and environmental factors on gambling behavior, and the reciprocal effect of gambling behavior on hope, superstitious belief and environmental factors. Results confirmed the theoretical reciprocal effects. A sequential effect model showing the effects of environmental factors on superstitious belief, hope and gambling behavior was also constructed and hope was found to be the result of superstitious belief. To reduce lottery gambling, the players need to be warned of their distorted hope and the small chance of winning lottery.     

Gambling participation in Australia: findings from the national Household Expenditure Survey

Regression modeling is used to predict gambling patterns in Australia on the basis of the unit record files underlying the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Household Expenditure Survey of 6,892 households. The four largest categories of gambling expenditure are examined, namely: lottery tickets, lotto-type games and instant lottery (scratch cards), TAB (pari-mutuel wagering) and related on course betting, and poker (slot) machines and ticket machines. Determining factors analyzed include the source and level of household income, family composition and structure, welfare status, gender, age, ethnicity and geographic location. Apart from the determinants of expenditure varying widely across the different types of gambling activity, the results generally indicate that the source of household income is more important than the level of income and that household composition and regional location are likewise significant in determining gambling expenditure.      

Instant Ticket Purchasing by Ontario Baby Boomers: Increasing Risk for Problem Gamblers

Instant ticket purchase gambling (ITPG) is pervasive in Ontario and has features that mimic slot machine play. Previous researchers have reported that ITPG is one preferred activity for at-risk/problem gamblers. In the general Canadian population, rate of participation in ITPG is second only to lottery ticket gambling. Both are particularly favored by youth and seniors. The next cohort of seniors will be Canada’s baby boomers, one-third of whom live in Ontario. Secondary analysis of Statistics Canada data revealed that adults in this cohort who buy instant gambling tickets (N = 1781) are significantly different from the complete group of their age peers (N = 4266) in number of activities pursued and frequency of involvement. At-risk/problem gambling prevalence was 10.2% amongst Ontario baby boomers who participate in instant ticket gambling, significantly higher than the 6.7% found amongst the total group of baby boom gamblers. For those who reported experiencing one or more of the Canadian Problem Gambling Index indicators for problem gambling (N = 237), 73% were buying instant tickets. Future research should consider cohort effects and explore combinations of preferred gambling activities that may increase risk for problem gambling. Social policy recommendations include the use of all ITPG venues as key locations for promoting awareness of problem gambling treatment services. This work was funded by Ontario Problem Gambling Research Centre.     

What drives lottery demand? Evidence from China's lottery practice

As governments draw increasing revenues from the lottery industry, it has become academically important, as well as for policy purposes, to better understand the factors that can explain lottery purchase decisions. The traditional literature uses either the expected return of each lottery ticket (effective price approach) or the jackpot size (jackpot approach) to explain the variation in lottery demand. In this article, we examine these two factors by exploiting a unique lottery game set-up in lottery practice in China. This lottery game is similar to lotteries in other countries except that there is a cap policy on the grand prize, which limits the reward of each jackpot winner. We show that this complex cap policy actually causes both the lottery effective price and the jackpot size to remain almost fixed for the majority of the time while lottery demand significantly fluctuates. The lack of variation suggests that, in China's practice, neither the effective price nor the jackpot size can explain the observed variation in lottery sales. Instead, we find that the size of the lottery rollover fits well in explaining the variation in lottery demand.     

Social Explanations of Lottery Play: New Evidence Based on National Survey Data

This study examines the social contexts of gambling and analyzes social motivations for playing the lottery. We test three sociological approaches simultaneously: network effects, consumption theory, and strain theory. The data used (SOEP-IS, N = 5868 individuals) has several advantages beyond being a large-scale representative sample of the German population. With information on households, we can analyze social network effects while avoiding the problems of egocentric network data. Another benefit of the SOEP-IS is the panel structure. We use the panel structure to improve measurements of strain theory by using the decline in income over time as a measure for it. Our results suggest that the three theories explain different aspects of lottery play. Networks seem to have an influence on lottery play. Having another person in the household playing the lottery is positively associated with both the probability of playing (regularly) and expenditures on lottery tickets. Daydreams and the belief in good luck are positively associated with lottery play as well. Strain theory is confirmed insofar as we find that a decline in income is significantly related to expenditures but not to the probability of playing the lottery. Overall, this study suggests that people play the lottery depending on their social surroundings, their desire to participate in a world normally out of their reach, and the tensions they feel from the distance between their aspirations and their actual social position.     

Lottery participation by youth with gambling problems: are lottery tickets a gateway to other gambling venues?

The aim of the present study was to investigate the types of gambling activities youths with gambling problems participate in and whether the lottery is a key gambling venue for these young people. Secondly, we sought to ascertain whether youths with gambling problems display similar gambling behaviour with lottery tickets as those addicted to traditional forms of gambling. Participants were 1,072 young people, 10-18 years of age, in Ontario, Canada. Youths with gambling problems reported having a preference for lottery tickets compared to other forms of gambling. Differences were found for the frequency with which probable pathological gamblers reported going to the store specifically to purchase lottery tickets. Furthermore, probable pathological gamblers reported chasing their losses after having played the lottery more than the other gambling groups. This research demonstrates that youths with gambling problems gamble primarily with lottery products and exhibit similar pathological gambling behaviour (e.g., chasing) as those individuals addicted to other forms of gambling venues. Furthermore, the results suggest that lottery tickets are a potentially addictive activity that introduces youth to the exciting properties of gambling.     

Adolescent Gambling Behavior: A Prevalence Study and Examination of the Correlates Associated with Problem Gambling

Eight-hundred and seventeen adolescent high school students in the Montreal region completed the DSM-IV-J gambling screen along with a questionnaire devised by the authors inquiring about their gambling behavior, including items assessing the types of activities in which they engage, frequency of involvement, reasons for gambling, and their cognitive perceptions of gambling activities. The results indicate that, in general, 80.2% of students reported having gambled during the previous year, with 35.1% gambling a minimum of once per week. Adolescents reported participating in gambling behavior more often than any other addictive behavior, including cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, and illicit drug use. The mean age of onset of gambling behavior for the sample was 11.5 years. The rate of pathological gambling was 4.7% as measured by the DSM-IV-J. Pathological gamblers were more likely to have parents with gambling problems and to be engaging in illegal activities than non-pathological gamblers. Gender differences were evident, with males engaging in gambling activities more than females. Differences in game preferences were found, with males more attracted to sports lottery tickets and sports pool betting and females more attracted to lottery tickets and bingo. Gambling awareness and prevention issues are addressed.     

Lottery Ticket Preferences as Indicated by the Variation in the Number of Winners

Many gamblers believe that it is possible to find a strategy to beat the lottery including selecting numbers that are due to come up or looking for a bias in past numbers. In this paper, we examine sales figures and variations in the number of winners for the various prize levels of a popular Canadian lottery to detect lottery ticket preferences. It was determined that the lottery outcomes conformed well to a random outcome. No evidence of either a bias myth or due to come up myth was found. However ticket popularity indicated a marked preference for the number 7 and low numbers, and the avoidance of high numbers and adjacent numbers. In addition we found a linear and a quadratic relationship between past frequency of the numbers and ticket popularity indicating a belief in both the due to come up and the bias myths. The findings suggest strong non-random preferences in the selection of lottery numbers.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BETTING AND LOTTERY PLAY

We apply a novel daily time series data set of daily turnover from one of Britain's leading bookmakers to analyze potential substitution between lottery play and bookmaker betting. We find some evidence that bettors do substitute away from horse race, soccer and numbers betting when the effective price of lottery tickets is unusually low, that is, when there is a rollover or other special draw. This substitution has a highly specific pattern of timing that varies by sector. Our results further suggest that bettors rationally engage in forward-looking substitution within their betting portfolios . ( JEL D12, L83)     

Dancing in the Dark: Ticketmaster's response to its Bruce Springsteen ticket crisis

Ticketmaster was presented with a crisis on February 2, 2009, when some fans trying to purchase tickets online to Bruce Springsteen concerts were redirected to Ticketmaster-owned secondary ticket distribution website, TicketsNow, and erroneously purchased tickets at a higher price than the original ticket price. The purpose of this research-in-brief is to compare Ticketmaster's response to the theories of crisis management presented in the public relations literature.     

Substance use among adolescent students with consideration of budget constraints

This paper estimates the demand for cigarettes, alcohol, and marijuana with consideration of the other goods that might exist in a teenager’s utility function. Youth tend to have small incomes and limited wants, with the result that many students spend the bulk of their income on only a few items such as fast food, clothing, and entertainment. In this paper, we examine the influence of changes in the prices of goods commonly bought by teenagers on the demand for cigarettes, alcohol, and marijuana. We estimate own and cross price effects using the prices of the illicit substances and other consumer products including gasoline, clothing, entertainment, and fast food. Income effects are also estimated and show that teens with higher incomes and allowances are more likely to use substances. The implications of higher excise taxes on different products are discussed.     

Lottery Promotions at the Point-of-Sale in Ontario, Canada

We documented the extent of point-of-sale (POS) lottery promotions in Ontario, Canada and the relationship between lottery promotions and store and city characteristics. This is the first quantitative study of POS lottery promotions. A total of 366 stores—independent and chain convenience stores, gas stations and grocery stores—were visited across 20 cities in Ontario. Data collectors unobtrusively observed the type of lottery promotions in each store and completed a data collection checklist. A lottery promotion index was created and hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) was conducted to examine the relationship between extent of lottery promotions and independent variables such as neighbourhood socioeconomic status and city prevalence of lottery ticket purchasing. POS lottery promotions were widespread across Ontario, with the highest level of promotion found in independent convenience stores. In the multivariable HLM model, none of the remaining independent variables remained statistically significant, except for store type. Lottery promotions are extensive at the POS in Ontario. These findings can help initiate discussions around the appropriateness and possible future regulation of this form of advertising.     

Scratchcard Gambling Among Adolescent Males

Playing instant scratchcards has become a popular activity among a significant minority of the UK population since their introduction by the National Lottery operators (Camelot) on March 21, 1995. This study examined scratchcard gambling in a group of adolescent males. A total of 204 boys from two secondary schools in Birmingham (aged 11 to 16 years; mean age 13.6 years) were administered a questionnaire on their scratchcard gambling behaviour. Ten classes (five in each school) took part in the survey with one class from each year group selected at random by the headteacher. Within each class almost all the children took part. Forty-two percent of the sample (n=86) had bought their own scratchcards since their introduction in March 1995. Ten children (12% of the gamblers who had bought scratchcards themselves) met an adapted version of the DSM-IV criteria for pathological gambling on scratchcards. Furthermore, a significant relationship was found between parents buying scratchcards and the child's scratchcard purchasing behaviour.