Segregation and Fragmentation: Extending Landscape Ecology and Pattern Metrics Analysis to Spatial Demography

Though demography’s roots involve a strong spatial component, recent attention to capitalizing on widely available spatially referenced demographic data has returned the focus to spatially enabled analyses. Landscape ecology offers a theoretical framework and concomitant methodology in pattern metric analysis well suited for extracting process through the examination of spatial patterns. Applied on the environmental side of population–environment interaction research, pattern metric analysis has not been brought to bear on population data per se. This research illustrates the utility of a pattern metric approach utilizing U.S. Census data from 1990 and 2000 to document changes in spatial configuration of race and class in South Carolina. The results corroborate similar findings elsewhere of exurban growth as well as an increasing income gap and spread of Hispanic population, both statistically and spatially. Further insight into the forces related to these processes is gained from explicit assessment of spatial configuration. The method is offered as a complementary tool to the richly evolving field of spatial demography.     

Demographic data and geographic information systems for decision making: The case of public health

Recent changes in the United States health care system include a broadened definition of health and renewed focus on public health. Increasingly, demographic analyses are incorporated into public health decision-making. Analysts also are using geographic information more routinely, because Geographic Information System (GIS) software is becoming easier to use. The paper describes three cases in which demographers used GIS to analyze the spatial distribution of public health data. The first case, from Santa Clara County, California, focuses on adolescent sexually transmitted diseases in secondary school districts. The second case, also from Santa Clara County, maps preventable hospitalizations of senior citizens. The third examines the distribution of premature births in Tennessee counties. The researchers applied demographic techniques and perspectives in each case, and each case produced information that is being used by officials who plan health education campaigns and services.     

人口学视野下的婚姻家庭研究：内容与方法

人口学视野下的婚姻家庭研究在其内容与方法上呈现出鲜明的特色。本文采用文献计量分析方法。将新中国成立以来人口学婚姻家庭研究的发展划分为两个主要阶段．并分别对婚姻和家庭研究及其主要方法进行了归纳分析,发现人口学研究着重于将婚姻家庭放在整个人口生命周期中,与各主要人口事件和人口过程相联系,尤其关注婚姻家庭与生育之间的关系,指出婚姻家庭作为重要的人口事件和人口社会经济特征,其研究的进一步拓展与深化需要结合多学科视角。     

上海从业劳动力分布变动与城市空间重构

本文主要根据上海市1996年和2001年两次基本单位普查基于工作地的从业劳动力数据,采用GIS技术和模型分析方法,系统地考察了1996~2001年间上海从业劳动力的空间分布及其变动特征,发现上海从业劳动力分布总体上呈都心区密度最高、由此向外依次降低的基本模式,以及都心区密度下降、周边地区上升、从业劳动力由都心区逐步向周边地区扩散的均衡化变动趋势。但第二、三产业从业劳动力的分布变动有所不同,第二产业主要表现为由中心城区向郊区扩散的较大范围的单向均衡化变动,第三产业则表现为在距离市中心15公里圈内由都心区向其边缘区扩散、15公里圈以外地区特别是远郊区则反呈趋向中心城区的集中化变动。从业劳动力的这种空间分布模式及其变动趋势基本符合大城市空间发展的一般规律,也有利于上海可持续城市空间的重构。     

Moving from a decennial census to a continuous measurement survey: factors affecting nonresponse at the neighborhood level

The Census Bureau is testing a continuous measurement program, known as the American Community Survey (ACS), which will provide census “long form” data annually, though with slightly higher levels of sampling variability. This paper focuses on the 1999–2001 ACS in the Bronx, 1 of 31 ACS test sites. It examines whether the quality of ACS data in the Bronx varies across neighborhoods, focusing specifically on how neighborhood sociodemographic factors influence nonresponse, as measured by mail return and allocation rates. It also examines whether these neighborhood factors have a differential impact on nonresponse in the ACS and the 2000 decennial census, and discusses reasons why this may be so.The ACS mail return rates are not only lower than those of the census, but are highly sensitive to race and socioeconomic distress. Despite this initial disadvantage, the ACS has lower levels of allocation on key variables, relative to the 2000 Census. Moreover, the effect of neighborhood socioeconomic distress on allocation rates in the ACS was minimal, compared to its effect on census allocation. We find that the overall quality of ACS data in the Bronx is superior to that of the decennial census. Our analysis of Bronx data suggests that the proposed elimination of the decennial long form and its replacement with the ACS is a reasonable tradeoff for users of small area data.     

高原高山区人口分布特征及影响机制研究——基于空间计量经济学视角

提出并评述了关于人口分布传统研究的三个衍生问题:空间尺度不同可能产生"人口分布悖论"现象、空间相互独立的假设不尽合理、特定空间区域人口分布的复杂性。以此为切入点,通过空间计量分析方法,探讨中国川西高原高山区人口分布特征。研究表明,全局Moran's I值为0.7404,指示川西复杂地形区人口分布有十分显著的集群特征。以川西48个县域单元为对象,建立人口密度与相关影响因子的OLS估计、SLM估计和SEM估计,经空间依赖性检验,发现空间计量回归模型明显优于普通最小二乘回归模型,表明考虑了空间依赖性的估计方法能更好的刻画人口空间分布特征;经相关判别检验,确立SLM为最优模型,其纠正了OLS模型总体上高估自然环境因子而低估经济社会因子对人口密度影响的缺陷。并以SLM估计结果为基础分析了川西人口分布特征,特别解析了川西"人口分布悖论"的事实和原因。     

County child poverty rates in the US: a spatial regression approach

We apply methods of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial regression analysis to examine intercounty variation in child poverty rates in the US. Such spatial analyses are important because regression models that exclude explicit specification of spatial effects, when they exist, can lead to inaccurate inferences about predictor variables. Using county-level data for 1990, we re-examine earlier published results [Friedman and Lichter (Popul Res Policy Rev 17:91–109, 1998)]. We find that formal tests for spatial autocorrelation among county child poverty rates confirm and quantify what is obvious from simple maps of such rates: the risk of a child living in poverty is not (spatially) a randomly distributed risk at the county level. Explicit acknowledgment of spatial effects in an explanatory regression model improves considerably the earlier published regression results, which did not take account of spatial autocorrelation. These improvements include: (1) the shifting of “wrong sign” parameters in the direction originally hypothesized by the authors, (2) a reduction of residual squared error, and (3) the elimination of any substantive residual spatial autocorrelation. While not without its own problems and some remaining ambiguities, this reanalysis is a convincing demonstration of the need for demographers and other social scientists to examine spatial autocorrelation in their data and to explicitly correct for spatial externalities, if indicated, when performing multiple regression analyses on variables that are spatially referenced. Substantively, the analysis improves the estimates of the joint effects of place-influences and family-influences on child poverty.

近年来我国人口迁移研究的研究设计与数据特点

从人口迁移研究的研究设计和数据特点出发 ,本文对人口迁移研究的数据类型和我国近年来人口研究的数据特点进行了总结和讨论。在此基础上提出我国人口迁移研究应当加强对流出地、非迁移人口和长期数据的搜集 ,以及对人口迁移的各方面影响的研究     

人口集聚、经济增长与城市空气质量——基于274个地级市数据的空间计量分析

把握好人口与环境之间的关系是实现经济高质量发展的保证,文章选取了2005~2016年中国274个地级及以上城市的面板数据,构建空间杜宾模型实证检验了人口集聚、经济增长与城市空气质量之间的非线性空间关系。研究结果表明:1.雾霾污染具有显著的空间溢出效应,人口与雾霾污染的空间耦合性较强,东部地区呈扩大趋势,中部呈收缩趋势,区域一体化特征明显。2.人口集聚与雾霾污染存在倒U型空间关系,目前大部分城市处于倒U型曲线左侧,另外越过拐点的城市存在退化趋势;中东部地区经济增长与雾霾污染呈正U型关系,不符合EKC假说,且东部地区大部分城市已经越过拐点。3.节能减排政策的实施没有达到预期的效果,外商投资缓解了西部地区的雾霾污染,但在中东部地区没有发挥出正外部性。考虑不同形式的空间权重矩阵后以上结果依然具有稳健性。     

空间城市化机制和人口城市化目标——对中国当代城市化发展的一项研究

无论从城市人口变化还是城市空间变化角度观察,以上个世纪90年代中期为界,中国的城市化都经历了两个不同的阶段。90年代中期以来的城市化是以地方政府经营土地使用权为内在动力的空间城市化过程,这一机制是由一系列土地法规催生形成的。这一城市化机制的主要问题在于:它无意于解决人口城市化中跨省市流动人口的异地城市化问题;它造成空间意义上低效率的假性城市化;更为重要的是,它造成了具有宏观影响的土地金融风险。本文基此认为,应该制定相关政策调整和规范地方政府策动的空间城市化机制,规避其产生的问题,通过激励设计促进城市化在机制与目标方面的协调。     

基于“六普”数据的山东省长寿水平空间分布及影响因素研究

随着人口老龄化和高龄化进程的加快,高龄老人健康与长寿是目前研究热点之一.第六次人口普查数据显示山东省长寿水平和百岁老人具有空间集聚特征;建立多元线性回归模型,模拟结果表明自然环境因素中地理位置变量是能够解释非个体因素所能解释的全部长寿水平空间差异的主导因素,经济社会发展因素中仅收入水平变量对长寿水平的影响与理论预期一致,饮食结构对县(市)百岁长寿水平也具有一定影响;收入水平对长寿水平的影响程度存在显著的地域差异、性别差异和年龄差异,即县(市)高于市区,女性高于男性,80岁以上长寿水平远大于百岁老人长寿水平.     

Urban Form,Heart Disease,and Geography: A Case Study in Composite Index Formation and Bayesian Spatial Modeling

Recent studies indicate a relationship between measures of urban form as applied to urban and suburban areas, and obesity, a risk factor for heart disease. Measures of urban form for exurban and rural areas are considerably scarce; such measures could prove useful in measuring relationships between urban form and both mortality and morbidity in such areas. In modeling area-level mortality, geographic relationships between counties warrant consideration because geographically adjacent areas tend to have more in common than areas farther from each other. We modify county-level indices of urban form found in the literature so that they can be applied to exurban and rural counties. We then use these indices in a Bayesian spatial model that accounts for spatial autocorrelation to determine if there is a relationship between such measures and cardiovascular disease mortality for white males age 35 and older for the time period 1999–2001. Issues related to the formation and usefulness of the indices, and issues related to the spatial model, are discussed. Maps of observed and expected relative risk of mortality are presented. Jimmie Givens retired from his service.     

市场、政府与贫困地区农牧民的增收——基于新疆30个贫困县面板数据

利用2000—2009年新疆30个贫困县的面板数据,着重研究了市场化程度和政府行为对新疆贫困地区农牧民增收的影响。研究发现:市场化程度和财政支出对农牧民增收都具有明显的促进作用;市场化程度和财政支出对南疆贫困地区农牧民的增收作用要大于北疆;总体来看,市场要比政府更有效,政府应为贫困地区农牧民提供更多的权利和公平。在此基础上,提出相关政策建议。     

Taming future mobilities: biopolitics and data behaviourism in the European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS)

ABSTRACT

In this paper, I critically engage with the European Travel Authorisation and Information System (ETIAS), looking at the rationalities underlying its introduction, its system architecture and its proposed functionalities. Tracing the biopolitical problematisation of the border that led to ETIAS, I argue that the system embodies a shift towards data behaviourism in the regime of truth underlying the biopolitical regulation of the EU border. Data behaviourism establishes a new way of seeing conduct, adding a potential future layer to it. Taming future mobilities through data-mining and future-oriented algorithmic processing, ETIAS imagines mobile subjects in terms of their motility and thereby produces dividuals and blurs the spatio-temporal boundedness of the EU border. ETIAS thereby complicates resistance by avoiding fixed identities and instead rarefies subjects through seeing them as being constantly emergent through new correlations.     

非公经济发展与社会就业互动关系研究——基于云南省16个地州的面板数据分析

基于2003—2009年云南省16个地州非公经济产值和社会就业的面板数据,检验并测度了云南省非公经济发展与社会就业的互动关系。结果表明:(1)非公经济的发展产生了带动社会就业的效应,弹性值为7.6个百分点,然而由于云南省非公经济发展不足,其就业拉动效应不明显。(2)就空间差异来看,非公经济发展对云南省不同地州的就业效应存在三级梯度。聚类结果显示,以昆明、曲靖和红河为第一梯度的非公经济发展相对好的地区,其带动社会就业增长的作用显著高于第二、三梯度地区。针对云南省非公经济社会就业存在的主要问题,给出了对策。     

Population and Poverty in Classical Theory: Testing a Structural Model for India

There has for many years been debate over the relationships between population growth rates and poverty. India is a country which provides a good testing ground for hypotheses about this relationship because since Independence a relatively high proportion of the population have lived in poverty; and there also exist reasonable data. This paper develops a simple structural model to investigate the relationship between population growth and poverty in particular, testing a series of hypotheses developed from the work of Marx and Malthus. The data are analysed at state level, and attention is drawn to the problems that this might cause as behaviour is typically determined at the individual household level. The results show that agricultural productivity and the process of landlessness are better predictors of poverty at a state level than the population growth rate. It is argued that the results fit better with the views of Marx than those of Malthus.     

黄土丘陵沟壑区农村居民点分布模式空间统计分析——以甘谷县为例

根据2008年SPOT遥感影像得到甘谷县农村居民点空间分布信息,继而运用样方分析法、最近邻距离指数、K函数、热点探测技术研究了甘谷县农村居民点空间分布格局与模式。结果显示：甘谷县农村居民点的空间分布具有明显的空间依赖性,总体上呈现出轻微集聚分布的特点;随着研究尺度的变大,居民点空间分布的集聚性指数也增大;居民点空间分布的热点区域在微观尺度上具有空间随机性、在中观尺度上具有边界集中性、宏观尺度上具有面状集中性的特点。     

Spatial relationships between mate acquisition probability and aggregation size in a gregarious coreid bug, (Colpula lativentris): A case of the ideal free distribution under perceptual constraints

Summary Spatial relationships of mate acquisition probability for individuals of both sexes of a gregariously-mating coreid bug,Colpula lativentris, were studied in relation to aggregation size. Operational sex ratio was always strongly male biased. Mate acquisition probability of females was rather constant and independent of aggregation size, as predicted by an ideal free distribution. Moreover laboratory experiments showed that both multiple mating and rearing density little affected female fecundity, suggesting ideal free distribution of females in terms of reproductive success. On the other hand, mate acquisition probability of males was higher in larger aggregations, where more receptive females were available. This male discrepancy from an ideal free distribution was similar to the patterns predicted by an ideal free distribution under perceptual constraints (Abrahams, 1986), but not by that under unequal competitive ability.